yes or no, PT faves w/o ML?

[elhelmete]

If morning lines didn't exist do you think the % of winning PT favorites would be higher or lower than they are today?

[thaskalos]

If morning lines didn't exist do you think the % of winning PT favorites would be higher or lower than they are today?

I think the % of the winning favorites would remain exactly as it is now. The bettors who are influenced by the morning line have either fled the game entirely...or they bet on such a small scale that they can't even bring about a tiny ripple on the tote board. IMO, of course.

[Robert Fischer]

about the same., maybe slightly higher in certain situations.

The vast majority of these races, the info is right there for the public. In order for the public to be wrong, there has to be a hyped horse, or some kind of significant angle that makes the face value of the past performances or race deceiving. It's either there or it isn't.
The ML maker isn't usually some genius, and if he was that smart, he'd know his job is simply to predict the public, - not to make some unorthodox ML that touted a less-than-popular trip horse, or derided a popular horse with pretty past performances, or whatever.

Reason I say (If morning lines didn't exist , that I think the % of winning PT favorites may be) 'slightly higher', is that there are some races with limited info on unknown horses, or evenly matched known rivals, where the ML guy is forced to do his best and make a stand on how he thinks the public will react to limited face value info.
I do think the ML at least has the occasional power to influence odds in those situations. I'm guessing the unbridled wisdom of crowds would outperform itself, were it not in those rare cases 'anchored' to the random guess of an 'authority', - but I could be wrong.

:p

[Robert Fischer]

I think the % of the winning favorites would remain exactly as it is now. The bettors who are influenced by the morning line have either fled the game entirely...or they bet on such a small scale that they can't even bring about a tiny ripple on the tote board. IMO, of course.

Your point about scale (in wager size and insight) is important.


I'm not even sure whether or not horseracing markets qualify for "wisdom of crowds" or not?

[VigorsTheGrey]

A more fundamental question is why the ML came into use, why it continues to be used and what prevents its non-use. I favor no Morning Line be set...If the public eventually sets the final odds, the public should set the opening odds as well...besides it would add more interest in the sport...It is a turn-off knowing in advance that X, Y, and Z horse is going to be 1-5, 4-5, 1-1...Let the public decide all, please...

[EMD4ME]

about the same., maybe slightly higher in certain situations.

The vast majority of these races, the info is right there for the public. In order for the public to be wrong, there has to be a hyped horse, or some kind of significant angle that makes the face value of the past performances or race deceiving. It's either there or it isn't.
The ML maker isn't usually some genius, and if he was that smart, he'd know his job is simply to predict the public, - not to make some unorthodox ML that touted a less-than-popular trip horse, or derided a popular horse with pretty past performances, or whatever.

Reason I say (If morning lines didn't exist , that I think the % of winning PT favorites may be) 'slightly higher', is that there are some races with limited info on unknown horses, or evenly matched known rivals, where the ML guy is forced to do his best and make a stand on how he thinks the public will react to limited face value info.
I do think the ML at least has the occasional power to influence odds in those situations. I'm guessing the unbridled wisdom of crowds would outperform itself, were it not in those rare cases 'anchored' to the random guess of an 'authority', - but I could be wrong.

:p

What ticks me off about ML oddsmakers is very little except for the following:

10 2 yo First Time Starters. ML oddsmaker hears of excellent clocker word on a horse, makes a horse with subtle connections the fav or 2nd fav. Public follows in multi race wagers as the ML oddsmaker must know something.

Horse wins, everything under pays. Very annoying.

[Nitro]

A more fundamental question is why the ML came into use, why it continues to be used and what prevents its non-use. I favor no Morning Line be set...If the public eventually sets the final odds, the public should set the opening odds as well...besides it would add more interest in the sport...It is a turn-off knowing in advance that X, Y, and Z horse is going to be 1-5, 4-5, 1-1...Let the public decide all, please...I’m not sure what you’re basing your opinions on, but they are totally unrealistic. It sort of sounds like you’d like to back to the pre-para-mutual days with individual bookmakers drawing odds on their chalk boards and bettors roaming the landscape trying to find the best price. The Morning Line certainly serves an important function for those who understand how it’s developed and its ultimate purpose. The public doesn’t determine the final odds, the over-all betting population does which is certainly not limited to just the “public”. BTW the odds you’ve suggested for representing X, Y, and Z are rarely shown as M/L odds.

As a side note the Hong Kong Jockey Club finds the M/L to be so important that they offer it twice before the races are run: The “Initial Tips Index” (offered a few days prior) and “Race Day Tips Index”. It’s Just another example of how they value their patronage by providing quality information.

What ticks me off about ML oddsmakers is very little except for the following:

10 2 yo First Time Starters. ML oddsmaker hears of excellent clocker word on a horse, makes a horse with subtle connections the fav or 2nd fav. Public follows in multi race wagers as the ML oddsmaker must know something.

Horse wins, everything under pays. Very annoying.You hear an awful lot of complaints about this game, but not very often when someone is actually exposing something worthwhile and doing their job.
.
.

[AndyC]

A more fundamental question is why the ML came into use, why it continues to be used and what prevents its non-use. I favor no Morning Line be set...If the public eventually sets the final odds, the public should set the opening odds as well...besides it would add more interest in the sport...It is a turn-off knowing in advance that X, Y, and Z horse is going to be 1-5, 4-5, 1-1...Let the public decide all, please...

Many bettors would be helpless without the ML as a starting point. Do you really think the ML is so powerful that it shapes the final odds?

[mickey_arnold]

Many bettors would be helpless without the ML as a starting point. Do you really think the ML is so powerful that it shapes the final odds?

I don't know how much of an influence the ML is on final odds. but at the "vacation" tracks, the "sun and sandals" crowd will take any help they can get. And how many of those folks would not like to go home with the satisfaction of having "the track"' pay for dinner.

If the ML overall is very inaccurate ( according to HANA the top accuracy for track ML makers is about 70% for favorites), I should complain ( not referring to you Andy )?

Paraphrasing an old dictum "The value of racing information is inversely proportional to its use'. If the ML is misused regularly and heavily, someone is being rewarded. Anything that contributes to some degree to creating what we perceive as false favorites or false near-favorites is advantageous to us, not something to be dismissed.

The 30% - 40% inaccuracy (It could be the same or even higher on the other low odds choices) doesn't address how much the ML makers are inaccurate based on predicted odds level, but we can just imagine how skewed the final odds and actual payout is, because even the board odds are inaccurate as to the actual price paid.

I say keep the ML, because if you thoroughly analyze it by race types for individual tracks, i.e. individual track ML makers, you may have found a new friend.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Many bettors would be helpless without the ML as a starting point. Do you really think the ML is so powerful that it shapes the final odds?

Thank you for your reply...your point about "many bettors would be helpless without the morning line as a starting point" is an interesting thought and no doubt correct albeit perhaps cynical....what's so bad about "them" being "helpless?" Eventually everyone would become better handicappers...but I think I understand now one of the points of having a ML...because the dim witted bettor would flee even faster from the track if he wasn't given a carrot or a bone fairly regularly...

I just think racing should follow the Ocham's Razor path...why do with more what can be done with less? Most of the time the morning line barely resembles the final odds FOR ALL THE RUNNERS IN THE RACE...anyway.

I don't see the benefit of trying to determine what the race time odds are likely to be beforehand, whether it is the "public" or the "public plus insiders" that makes it later on.

I just think it would be more interesting to show up at post time without any prior knowledge of what the odds might be for that upcoming race let alone the rest of the card....let everyone start tabula rasa, a blank slate oddswise, and bet into the pick-3's, 4's etc, without the aid of a handicapping professional that the track employs to guide them.

I know it will never happen and THAT FACT intrigues me to understand exactly what is really preventing NOT HAVING MORNING LINE. Since it cost money to employ a Morning Line Maker...there must be a distinct benefit that the track receives otherwise they would do without him....

...and I think you may be right about many bettors being helpless without it which may be the main reason it is still used and why it will never go away....the question remains...What percentage is your "many bettors?"
50 percent of all track goers? Even more?

Just exactly WHY is it so unrealistic and unworkable/ unattainable to do away entirely with the Morning Line?

[citygoat]

I think it also fuels that feeling that the bettor is smarter than the pro who sets the odds when he bets a winner that isnt in the top three. The morning line hurts the doubles player.

[AndyC]

......Just exactly WHY is it so unrealistic and unworkable/ unattainable to do away entirely with the Morning Line?

Do you really think that a M/L harms the game? Given that the overwhelming majority of players at the track are armed with nothing more than a program it is certainly in the track's economic interest to create a M/L.

Other than limited cost savings how would a track benefit from the elimination of the M/L?

[Nitro]

In general, I think the betting population does a pretty good job in consistently setting the post-time odds. I don’t believe that the bulk of that money is being wagered by people who wouldn’t know how to gauge a horse’s chances if there were no morning line on it. In my opinion, the morning line if nothing else is certainly valuable as a public relations tool. It simply provides a base line for wagering, especially to new and potential fans who are not yet experienced enough in all the various methods of handicapping to form an educated independent opinion about a horse’s chances of winning. Many casual fans would like to know which horses are the most likely winners and which are the outsiders without having to handicap the race. Eliminating the morning line may well benefit the professionals at the expense of the casual fan, but without new and casual fans horse racing may continue its decline at certain tracks. Realize that we are already losing lots of these types of fans for many other reasons. To me, that in itself makes the M/L worth keeping.
.
.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Do you really think that a M/L harms the game? Given that the overwhelming majority of players at the track are armed with nothing more than a program it is certainly in the track's economic interest to create a M/L.

Other than limited cost savings how would a track benefit from the elimination of the M/L?

I don't know if it harms the game or not and that is my point because it has never been tried out even as an experiment to find out...who really knows?

If the net result is increased mutual payouts all around I think that would be the most important new innovation racing management could implement...don't you? It is the mutual payouts that drive the sport above all else...sort of like a restaurant that consistently serves up great food...lots of restaurants forget to do this and their business suffers....the track MUST find a way to keep the payout trend from collapsing across the board....this is the sine qua non of racing based on parimutual wagering.

Ultimately, what is not attractive is low payouts ...the new and casual player might still rely upon his own devices (numbers, names, magic, birthdays, etc...) in the absence of a M/L and they still will have the benefit of the tote board to guide them to separate longshots from contenders...

[Nitro]

I don't know if it harms the game or not and that is my point because it has never been tried out even as an experiment to find out...who really knows?

If the net result is increased mutual payouts all around I think that would be the most important new innovation racing management could implement...don't you? It is the mutual payouts that drive the sport above all else...sort of like a restaurant that consistently serves up great food...lots of restaurants forget to do this and their business suffers....the track MUST find a way to keep the payout trend from collapsing across the board....this is the sine qua non of racing based on parimutual wagering.

Ultimately, what is not attractive is low payouts ...the new and casual player might still rely upon his own devices (numbers, names, magic, birthdays, etc...) in the absence of a M/L and they still will have the benefit of the tote board to guide them to separate longshots from contenders...Where in the world do you come up with this stuff? Maybe you should ask yourself, Why did they develop a Morning Line to begin with? We absolutely know that at a minimum it would have a negative impact on those new and unfamiliar with the game. They wouldn’t even have the ability to make a basic comparison between a M/L and the actual wagering activities during the betting cycles. I think your suggestion would be more like going to a restaurant that doesn’t offer and menu!

With or without the M/L there would be no effect on the mutual and exotic payoffs because the actual betting activities control that aspect of the game and are reflected in the actual tote board and will-pays. I also doubt there would be any real increase in the gross handle w/o a M/L. So where’s the innovation?

You want some innovation? Eliminate the personal taxing of large returns on winning bets. I believe the racing industry would see an unprecedented growth.
.
.

[castaway01]

I don't know if it harms the game or not and that is my point because it has never been tried out even as an experiment to find out...who really knows?

If the net result is increased mutual payouts all around I think that would be the most important new innovation racing management could implement...don't you?

First of all, if payouts go up, by definition fewer people are winning them, and I don't think most racetracks would view that as a positive. Second, while I agree with others here that there is only a significant amount of "casual" money in the pools on certain big days and at certain tracks, the morning line is a guide for these people. Taking away anything that helps them and makes the game more confusing so they'll be less likely to bet is also a negative. Third, you're talking about a game with 100 problems and looking for a problem where there isn't any. The morning line has little effect on wagering, but what it does have is a positive encouraging effect---because people think they've got a "hot horse" being bet down or that they're getting a "good price". Taking that away will only hurt pool size, which hurts payouts.

[NorCalGreg]

First of all, if payouts go up, by definition fewer people are winning them, and I don't think most racetracks would view that as a positive. Second, while I agree with others here that there is only a significant amount of "casual" money in the pools on certain big days and at certain tracks, the morning line is a guide for these people. Taking away anything that helps them and makes the game more confusing so they'll be less likely to bet is also a negative. Third, you're talking about a game with 100 problems and looking for a problem where there isn't any. The morning line has little effect on wagering, but what it does have is a positive encouraging effect---because people think they've got a "hot horse" being bet down or that they're getting a "good price". Taking that away will only hurt pool size, which hurts payouts.

...good points

[Dave Schwartz]

Less information is never seen as a positive by the handicapper.

(Doesn't mean it might not be done.)

[VigorsTheGrey]

Where in the world do you come up with this stuff? Maybe you should ask yourself, Why did they develop a Morning Line to begin with? We absolutely know that at a minimum it would have a negative impact on those new and unfamiliar with the game. They wouldn’t even have the ability to make a basic comparison between a M/L and the actual wagering activities during the betting cycles. I think your suggestion would be more like going to a restaurant that doesn’t offer and menu!

With or without the M/L there would be no effect on the mutual and exotic payoffs because the actual betting activities control that aspect of the game and are reflected in the actual tote board and will-pays. I also doubt there would be any real increase in the gross handle w/o a M/L. So where’s the innovation?

You want some innovation? Eliminate the personal taxing of large returns on winning bets. I believe the racing industry would see an unprecedented growth.
.
.
I did ask that question, see my first post on this thread...And I think it would be a good stroll down an arcane avenue of WHEN, WHERE, WHY the M/L was first used and what method immediately preceded it...I wouldn't even know where to look...but I'm sure getting an education here now...This is really not a pressing issue for me or anyone else I suppose, just friendly discussion...

I do see many of the points everyone is making about the benefits of the M/L...It has been interesting for me to hear from all of you regarding this...As for where I come up with all of this stuff, I don't know, it's just the way my mind works, that's all...I think it is fun discussing all these topics and I learn alot from all of you..I hope you can learn something from me too sometime ;)

[EMD4ME]

I’m not sure what you’re basing your opinions on, but they are totally unrealistic. It sort of sounds like you’d like to back to the pre-para-mutual days with individual bookmakers drawing odds on their chalk boards and bettors roaming the landscape trying to find the best price. The Morning Line certainly serves an important function for those who understand how it’s developed and its ultimate purpose. The public doesn’t determine the final odds, the over-all betting population does which is certainly not limited to just the “public”. BTW the odds you’ve suggested for representing X, Y, and Z are rarely shown as M/L odds.

As a side note the Hong Kong Jockey Club finds the M/L to be so important that they offer it twice before the races are run: The “Initial Tips Index” (offered a few days prior) and “Race Day Tips Index”. It’s Just another example of how they value their patronage by providing quality information.

You hear an awful lot of complaints about this game, but not very often when someone is actually exposing something worthwhile and doing their job.
.
.

This is an information game. A game where information is not easy to uncover. It's a reward system for people who spent time/money/leverage connections to uncover valuable information. It is the ML oddsmaker's sole responsibility to make a line based upon what he/she thinks the overall public will wager on.

I'd say 90% of people have no clue about a hot workout. So, how is that doing their job?

[EMD4ME]

To answer the OP, I would love for there to be no morning line.

Everyone start unjaded/unbiased. You're a rookie at this, too bad. Learn like the others did to handicap.

This game needs to be marketed as a game for the intelligent. Prove how smart you are by beating your fellow foe in the pools. But that's another discussion for another thread.

[mickey_arnold]

To answer the OP, I would love for there to be no morning line.

Everyone start unjaded/unbiased. You're a rookie at this, too bad. Learn like the others did to handicap.

This game needs to be marketed as a game for the intelligent. Prove how smart you are by beating your fellow foe in the pools. But that's another discussion for another thread.

Would the use of a betting line set by legalized bookmakers be objectionable? What about free betting lines set by a handicapping picks service or handicapping data service? Is using public handicappers cheating?

C'mon, this game is not a dispassionate IQ exam with no calculators or other testing aids forbidden. And its not a macho exhibition either.

Let the ML breathe a little...It's not tuberculosis.

[EMD4ME]

Would the use of a betting line set by legalized bookmakers be objectionable? What about free betting lines set by a handicapping picks service or handicapping data service? Is using public handicappers cheating?

C'mon, this game is not a dispassionate IQ exam with no calculators or other testing aids forbidden. And its not a macho exhibition either.

Let the ML breathe a little...It's not tuberculosis.

Point taken and respected. Was just giving my vote :ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

This is an information game. A game where information is not easy to uncover. It's a reward system for people who spent time/money/leverage connections to uncover valuable information. It is the ML oddsmaker's sole responsibility to make a line based upon what he/she thinks the overall public will wager on.

I'd say 90% of people have no clue about a hot workout. So, how is that doing their job?An information game for sure. For those of us who are more a bit more experienced, we each have our own personal choices for where we might find the most pertinent information to create some worthwhile plays. If a M/L odds maker sees something as obvious as some great W/O’s particularly for young horses with limited racing experience, I’m sure he recognizes that even the amateur handicapper would see the exact same thing, particularly if there are limited PP running lines. W/O’s are certainly not hidden and a very basic form of information. I’m sure that there are many more then 10% of all players who recognize that current condition plays an important role in how an animal might perform.
To answer the OP, I would love for there to be no morning line.

Everyone start unjaded/unbiased. You're a rookie at this, too bad. Learn like the others did to handicap.

This game needs to be marketed as a game for the intelligent. Prove how smart you are by beating your fellow foe in the pools. But that's another discussion for another thread.Some pretty pompous remarks from someone who at some was also an amateur. I’m sure there many players out there who simply aren’t as serious about this game. Maybe they're just fans. Perhaps they’re not even interested in wasting their time learning every aspect of the typical methodologies presented by the handicapping gurus who seem to portray this game as having some sort of relationship to a scientific application. But that's something I’ve covered on other threads.
.
.

[AndyC]

To answer the OP, I would love for there to be no morning line.

Everyone start unjaded/unbiased. You're a rookie at this, too bad. Learn like the others did to handicap.

This game needs to be marketed as a game for the intelligent. Prove how smart you are by beating your fellow foe in the pools. But that's another discussion for another thread.


Isn't a big part of handicapping trying to weed out the BS that creates bias? Would we also need to cut out all public handicappers who print their opinions in newspapers and on the internet? The M/L does not affect the level of intelligence required to be a winner.

[EMD4ME]

Isn't a big part of handicapping trying to weed out the BS that creates bias? Would we also need to cut out all public handicappers who print their opinions in newspapers and on the internet? The M/L does not affect the level of intelligence required to be a winner.

Yes, handicapping is weeding out the BS. Agreed.

I was simply stating my vote. ML or no ML. I vote, No official ML. I'm not a pioneer of it (of the request to remove it). It wasn't something that kept me up at night. I simply replied to a thread. So, would I go so far as to saying all public handicappers/newspapers etc be cut out? Of course not. No one can stop them from making selections, posting on threads etc.

I was simply speaking in a fantasy world about the official ML in general. If I had my drothers, it wouldn't exist.

[pandy]

The morning line might have a small effect on the odds at tracks that have small pools. I think it would be silly to have entries with no morning line.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Isn't a big part of handicapping trying to weed out the BS that creates bias? Would we also need to cut out all public handicappers who print their opinions in newspapers and on the internet? The M/L does not affect the level of intelligence required to be a winner.

This is a quote from Nitro (above post) "The Morning Line certainly serves an important function for those who understand how it’s developed and its ultimate purpose." Andy, I've read from other posters that you are a significant person with regard to racing knowledge/ experience....Could you elucidate Nitro's post regarding how the M/L is developed and its ultimate purpose. Why is the stated purpose of the M/L to predict what the betting community will make the odds of the entrants and why is this so important?

It seems to me that the morning line serves other purposes indirectly related to the track as well...

[EMD4ME]

An information game for sure. For those of us who are more a bit more experienced, we each have our own personal choices for where we might find the most pertinent information to create some worthwhile plays. If a M/L odds maker sees something as obvious as some great W/O’s particularly for young horses with limited racing experience, I’m sure he recognizes that even the amateur handicapper would see the exact same thing, particularly if there are limited PP running lines. W/O’s are certainly not hidden and a very basic form of information. I’m sure that there are many more then 10% of all players who recognize that current condition plays an important role in how an animal might perform.
Some pretty pompous remarks from someone who at some was also an amateur. I’m sure there many players out there who simply aren’t as serious about this game. Maybe they're just fans. Perhaps they’re not even interested in wasting their time learning every aspect of the typical methodologies presented by the handicapping gurus who seem to portray this game as having some sort of relationship to a scientific application. But that's something I’ve covered on other threads.
.
.

I'm still an amateur, will always be an amateur and will forever aspire to learn more about our wonderful game.

[Nitro]

I'm still an amateur, will always be an amateur and will forever aspire to learn more about our wonderful game.Some pretty humble remarks from someone who is recognized as decent player. Touché

And I certainly won’t argue with your partiality toward this game.
.
.

[AndyC]

This is a quote from Nitro (above post) "The Morning Line certainly serves an important function for those who understand how it’s developed and its ultimate purpose." ....Could you elucidate Nitro's post regarding how the M/L is developed and its ultimate purpose. Why is the stated purpose of the M/L to predict what the betting community will make the odds of the entrants and why is this so important?
It seems to me that the morning line serves other purposes indirectly related to the track as well...

I have no special insight on M/Ls, just opinions like everyone else. I see the M/L as a starting point or conversation starter for horse bettors. It's a way to get people engaged in the race or the process. The purpose is to increase handle for the track, nothing more to it than that.

By the responses on this thread, I doubt that the M/L plays a significant role with too many experienced players. I might mention it perhaps in a situation saying " I love a horse in the 7th today and it's 30-1 on the line."

[Turf player]

The M/L is just a starting point. Once the bell rings to open the pools the public is in charge. - The magic about the M/L, they were anyway.

There are handicappers in the DRF, and program and that is accepted.- Just an idea for the handicapper to begin the process. - I use it as a tool to find an acceptable price line of my own.

No harm, no foul....