formula's win and exacta live posting

[formula_2002]

I invite anyone interested in my win and exacta live post to the SELECTION FORUM.
I have been posting the selections based tote board analysis for several years, That's right several years.
This most recent thread covers post since 7-23-2016 and from the previous thread note dated 07-21-2016.

As you can see from the outline below it should be interesting.
The most interesting thing is. the results are positive over a number of races.

188 win plays won 47% of the time, returning $1.12 roi
188 exacta plays won 30% of the time returning 1.24 roi

Perhaps even more interesting I can not understand why the results are positive.

Your comments to the postings as of this date would be appreciated
I have nothing to sell, but if I still show a profit after 500 races, I notify Mike (PA) that I'll become an advertiser :)



I'll continue posting and reporting on the top and bottom line exacta plays.

But now I will post the return on the combined results of both lines.
It's not just a matter of adding both lines

I will also indicate the tracks $1 return and the fair value as calculated using the winning and place odds as presented on my web site.

These results will be indicated here once I have reviewed the results chart.

[Nitro]

I invite anyone interested in my win and exacta live post to the SELECTION FORUM.
I have been posting the selections based tote board analysis for several years, That's right several years.
This most recent thread covers post since 7-23-2016 and from the previous thread note dated 07-21-2016.

As you can see from the outline below it should be interesting.
The most interesting thing is. the results are positive over a number of races.

188 win plays won 47% of the time, returning $1.12 roi
188 exacta plays won 30% of the time returning 1.24 roi

Perhaps even more interesting I can not understand why the results are positive.

Your comments to the postings as of this date would be appreciated
I have nothing to sell, but if I still show a profit after 500 races, I notify Mike (PA) that I'll become an advertiser :) [/B][/SIZE]Hey there Formula_2002
I’ve noticed your posts in the Selection forum for some time now. Although I enjoy see the positive results of your tote methodology I don’t have any idea of what you’re doing to arrive at the posted formats you provide. In fact, I have no idea how you go about making your preferred Win or Exacta selections. I believe that your results are “positive” only because you’re following the most current and objectively prevailing pre-race information that’s available.

As you might know I am also an avid user of a tote analysis system that produces some very nice results on a consistent basis. Although I’m not the original developer of this system, I can say that it uses all of the available mutual betting pools as well as the Exacta pool. The foundation of this analysis is based on the proprietary formulas used to assimilate and solve the questions related to the money movement during typical betting cycles. I do know that the visual results illustrate Betting Patterns that vary from track to track and pool size to pool size. I also know that with the larger tracks the betting intervals used by the tote analysis are 15, 8, and 5 mins to post. The smaller tracks are 10 or 12, 7 and 4 mins to post.

At each of these betting intervals the actual analysis provides a PAR value for the combined betting from all of the available pools on all the entries. At the same time a separate value is established for each entry. Then it just becomes a matter of comparing the PAR value with each Entry’s value for each of the Betting intervals. When viewing all of this information together, the betting patterns in most cases become very obvious because there's a definite relationship between the PAR value and the Entry values. That relationship and whether or not it changes during the betting cycle becomes the primary focus of each race. From there I’m able to determine at least 2 Key entries along with 2 or 3 others of betting interest. I’ve been using it for quite a while and it was worth every bit of my investment.
.
.

[formula_2002]

:2:

see note 137 for explanation
"Saratoga
Race
2

Post
1:33

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$82,803 "
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
3 . 87 . 2 9 . . . . . . . . . . 100.00 top
. . . 100 . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.00 bot

[formula_2002]

:1:


see note 137 for explanation
"Delaware
Race
2

Post
1:45

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,920 "
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
. 13 20 . . . 67 . . . . . . . . . 100.00 top
. . . 82 18 . . . . . . . . . . . 100.00 bot

[formula_2002]

Nitro

I believe that your results are “positive” only because you’re following the most current and objectively prevailing pre-race information that’s available.



That's correct to the extent I use the 3 to 2 minuet to post time data

[formula_2002]

my comment regarding yesterdays results;

very uninteresting day of racing.
29 races, top exacta line returned 0.72 roi
bottom exacta line returned 0.71 roi
win pool returned a 0.76 roi.


these are more normal result for a day of racing.


I also calculated the number of expected win pool winners.
The total expected winners for the 29 races was 12.5, the actual winners was 11.


Based on my past performance these results should improve over the next few days to a positive roi.. We'll see

I did calculate a few of the actual exacta payout compared to the expected.
none were overlays

[formula_2002]

much better day today
results over the last two days

win pool won 19 of 40 races for a 0.94 roi

top pool exacta won 9 of 40 races for a .95 roi

bottom exacta pool (bread and butter of the system) got positive.
11 wins in 40 plays for a 1.02 roi

I'll continue playing the day.

[formula_2002]

todays 25 race results
7 wins .top exacta line returned 1.48 roi
4 wins bottom exacta line returned 0.82 roi
12 win pool winners returned a 0.93 roi.

[formula_2002]

I HAVE POSTED THE 08-02-2016 RESULTS TO MY WEB PAGE.
IT LIST WIN POOL ROI 0.89
TOP LINE EX ROI 1.33
BOTTEM LINE ROI .86
IT ALSO LIST THE ACTUAL EXACTA PAYOFFS AND EXPECTED PAYOFFS
IT INDICATES WHICH RACES WERE POSTED TO PA
IT LIST THE ACTUAL WIN POOL WINNERS AND EXPECTED WINNERS

[formula_2002]

I JUST UPLOADED YESTERDAYS RESULTS TO MY WEB SITE

WIN POOL ROI =1.02
TOP LINE EXACTA ROI =0.28
BOTTOM LINE EXACTA ROI = 1.34

I ALSO NOW INCLUDE THE RESULTS FOR THE PAST 11 DAYS

WIN POOL ROI =1.05 FOR 211 RACES
TOP LINE EXACTA ROI =0.82 FOR 88 RACES
BOTTOM LINE EXACTA ROI = 1.07 FOR 211 RACES

[formula_2002]

my web site results have been updated
yesterdays 21 races had a 0.99 roi for the win pool
2.32 roi for the top line exacta pool
.93 roi for the bottom line exacta pool

the site also indicates which races were posted to PA

all exacta returns were underlays
number of expected win pool winners was 7.35, actual 8

the results also includes a summary for the following;

109 race top line exacta 1.11 roi
232 race bottom line exacta 1.06 roi
232 race win pool 1.04 roi

[lansdale]

I invite anyone interested in my win and exacta live post to the SELECTION FORUM.
I have been posting the selections based tote board analysis for several years, That's right several years.
This most recent thread covers post since 7-23-2016 and from the previous thread note dated 07-21-2016.

As you can see from the outline below it should be interesting.
The most interesting thing is. the results are positive over a number of races.

188 win plays won 47% of the time, returning $1.12 roi
188 exacta plays won 30% of the time returning 1.24 roi

Perhaps even more interesting I can not understand why the results are positive.

Your comments to the postings as of this date would be appreciated
I have nothing to sell, but if I still show a profit after 500 races, I notify Mike (PA) that I'll become an advertiser :)



I'll continue posting and reporting on the top and bottom line exacta plays.

But now I will post the return on the combined results of both lines.
It's not just a matter of adding both lines

I will also indicate the tracks $1 return and the fair value as calculated using the winning and place odds as presented on my web site.

These results will be indicated here once I have reviewed the results chart.


Hi Forumula 2002,

You've been posting these selections for many years without really explaining them. If this is intentional, no need to respond to my post. But if you are willing to clarify your method somewhat, I would be interested in your criteria for selecting these favorites, and whether the exacta combinations are simply chosen as overlays based on miscalculated odds or whether they have any fundamental (non-math) component.

You asked, elsewhere, for comments on math errors, but I would suggest one aspect of your method that might be a conceptual error. As I understand it, your system assumes that the betting market is efficient -- that the odds are accurate -- which we know is not true. The data I've seen from some respected researchers suggests that the odds are ca. 80% of ann accurate model. I'm not sure how this could be effectively built into your system, but what about the possibilty changing your estimate of fair exacta odds by making the divisor in the equation 1.38 instead of 1.18. I don't know how this would strike you, but I'd be interested in comments from anyone with a strong math background, e.g., sjk or others, on whether this idea has any merit, just out of curiosity.

Regardless, best of luck with your work.

Cheers,

lansdale

[formula_2002]

Hi,
Here is a copy of "note 137" from my current thread in the selection forum.
It's intended to explain what my betting values are and how to read them.
I have included this reference at the top of my recent selection posts over the last several days.
There is one change. the TOP LINE values have been moved to the BOTTEM
Line and the BOTTOM to the TOP.

Regarding the efficiency of the betting public, I have read many books and research papers documenting the efficiency of the win pool with a long to short odds bias paper.
I have now included the actual wins vs the expected wins in the results file located on my web page. The number of actual wins almost match the number of expected wins.
The reason I started this thread is that after what is now 232 plays my win bets are producing a profit. This is contrary to what I expected.
I had expected a lost of approximately 15% to 18%

I would say the horse I pick at 3 to 2 minutes to post as the favorite is indeed the post time favorite 99 % of the time.

My idea is to pick the favorite over all in the exacta pool, but on two betting lines. I value the bet size in each betting line differently.

As of this date both lines show a profit along with the win pool.
I don't expect that to last through 500 races. But I hope to find out soon.


the copy

I can not get it to copy properly here, you win need to goto my latest thread in the selection form, note 137

I'll work on getting posted to my web site

Regards and thanks for your interest

[formula_2002]

my web site results have been updated
yesterdays 18 races had a 1.12 roi for the win pool
1.15 roi for the top line exacta pool
.80 roi for the bottom line exacta pool

the site also indicates which races were posted to PA

[formula_2002]

RESULTS FOR 8 POSTED RACES
WIN POOL $8 BET RETURNED $10.77 1.25 ROI
TOP LINE EXACTA $8 BET $21.00 RETURNED 2.63 ROI
BOTTOM LINE EXACTA $8 BET $11.16 RETURNED 1.40

I'LL UPDATE MY WEB SITE WITH ALL
OF TODAYS PLAYS SHORTLY

[lansdale]

Hi,
Here is a copy of "note 137" from my current thread in the selection forum.
It's intended to explain what my betting values are and how to read them.
I have included this reference at the top of my recent selection posts over the last several days.
There is one change. the TOP LINE values have been moved to the BOTTEM
Line and the BOTTOM to the TOP.

Regarding the efficiency of the betting public, I have read many books and research papers documenting the efficiency of the win pool with a long to short odds bias paper.
I have now included the actual wins vs the expected wins in the results file located on my web page. The number of actual wins almost match the number of expected wins.
The reason I started this thread is that after what is now 232 plays my win bets are producing a profit. This is contrary to what I expected.
I had expected a lost of approximately 15% to 18%

I would say the horse I pick at 3 to 2 minutes to post as the favorite is indeed the post time favorite 99 % of the time.

My idea is to pick the favorite over all in the exacta pool, but on two betting lines. I value the bet size in each betting line differently.

As of this date both lines show a profit along with the win pool.
I don't expect that to last through 500 races. But I hope to find out soon.


the copy

I can not get it to copy properly here, you win need to goto my latest thread in the selection form, note 137

I'll work on getting posted to my web site

Regards and thanks for your interest

Thanks for your reply. I have read post #137 and taken a look at your site, where, BTW the result page is now blank, although I did see the spreadsheet that was there earlier. Neither made anything much clearer to me about your project. You describe your procedure but don't explain the reasoning behind it. I understand that the favorite-longshot bias is genuine, but don't see what you're doing to exploit it. If the cryptic nature of your communication is intentional, I get it -- this is a zero-sum game, after all.

Hope things continue to go well for you.

[formula_2002]

Thanks for your reply. I have read post #137 and taken a look at your site, where, BTW the result page is now blank, although I did see the spreadsheet that was there earlier. Neither made anything much clearer to me about your project. You describe your procedure but don't explain the reasoning behind it. I understand that the favorite-longshot bias is genuine, but don't see what you're doing to exploit it. If the cryptic nature of your communication is intentional, I get it -- this is a zero-sum game, after all.

Hope things continue to go well for you.


try my web site again. let me know it still can not view the results.

The reasoning behind my picks is no different than the hundreds of guys who are trying to do the same thing, that is attempting discover positive value in the exacta pool base on the play of the separate straight pools.

I can not say much more than that at this time.
If I can convince myself that there is real value to my play, I will do one of two things, bet or sell :cool:

[formula_2002]

:4:


see note 137 for explanation
"Saratoga
Race
4

Post
2:41

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$130,824 "
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
. 44 56 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.00 top
73 . . . 27 . . . . . . . . . . . 100.00 bot

[formula_2002]

I JUST UPLOADED YESTERDAYS RESULTS TO MY WEB SITE

WIN POOL ROI =0.78
TOP LINE EXACTA ROI =0.74
BOTTOM LINE EXACTA ROI = 0.94

I ALSO NOW INCLUDE THE RESULTS FOR THE PAST 15 DAYS

WIN POOL ROI =1.01 FOR 291 RACES
TOP LINE EXACTA ROI =1.13 FOR 160 RACES
BOTTOM LINE EXACTA ROI = 0.99 FOR 291 RACES

[formula_2002]

a fact.
if you sum the $1 actual return (column k) and divided it by the sum of the $1 expected return (column l) you get the expected roi

$608/$774 = 0.78 which is about expected for an exacta return

if you added the two exacta returns for the top and bottom exact lines (columns e and f ) and divide that by the total $1 bets you will get the exacta play roi

($147+107)/(113 x2) = 1.12 roi. that's a :jump:

[formula_2002]

I'm forever looking to build profitable factors (my structured bets :) ).
I have been curious about a certain win bet factor and I will add to my results file
Of course the 1st day's use was profitable. I added to the results to the
08-2-2016 plays. Hopefully the results will keep me interest to follow through to today

[formula_2002]

I'm forever looking to build profitable factors (my structured bets :) ).
I have been curious about a certain win bet factor and I will add to my results file
Of course the 1st day's use was profitable. I added to the results to the
08-2-2016 plays. Hopefully the results will keep me interest to follow through to today


I WENT THROUGH 6 DAY OF PLAYS. LOOKS VERY GOOD
i'LL INCLUDE THE WIN POOL BET SIZE WITH MY WIN PGNO PICK

[formula_2002]

I WENT THROUGH 6 DAY OF PLAYS. LOOKS VERY GOOD
i'LL INCLUDE THE WIN POOL BET SIZE WITH MY WIN PGNO PICK

take particular note of races when the factor is >=30..POW (for now):cool:

[formula_2002]

RESULTS


16 DAYS OF RACING


WIN POOL FLAT BET SIZE, 305 RACES, ROI 0.99

WIN POOL STRUCTURED BET SIZE, 135 RACES, 1.26 ROI

TOP LINE EXACTA POOL, 174 RACES, ROI 1.07

BOTTOM LINE EXACTA POOL, 305 RACES,1.00 ROI

SEE MY WEB SITE FOR FURTHER BREAKDOWN

[formula_2002]

flx r1 right out of the box

win bet size 271 $1 payout $2.2
$1 bottom line exacta $2.57

[formula_2002]

an observation:
when looking at the results file on my web page go to excel sheet1(2).

note cell d117. that's the win pool flat bet roi, 1.29
compare to cell s117, that's the win pool structured bet roi, 1.31

very little difference.
That tends to support many observations over many years, which indicates the win pool flat bet results is difficult, if at all possible to improve upon.


the benefit here seems to be the size of the "factor", at this time >=30

[formula_2002]

I WILL UPLOADED YESTERDAYS RESULTS TO MY WEB SITE

24 RACES
WIN POOL ROI =1.06
TOP LINE EXACTA ROI =0.00
BOTTOM LINE EXACTA ROI = 1.72


I ALSO INCLUDE THE RESULTS FOR THE PAST 17 DAYS

WIN POOL ROI =1.00 FOR 329 RACES
TOP LINE EXACTA ROI =0.94 FOR 198 RACES
BOTTOM LINE EXACTA ROI = 1.06 FOR 329 RACES

NOTE ON SHEET 1(2) CELL K139 (ACTUAL $1 EXACTA PAYOUT) AND CELL L139 (EXPECTED $1 PAYOUT) THE ROI CALCULATES TO 0.79.

MY TOP LINE EXACTA PLAYS RETURNED A 1.04 ROI (CELL E140) AND BOTTOM LINE EXACTA PLAY RETURNED A 1.05 ROI (CELL F140)
I CONSIDER MY EXACTA RETURN ADVANTAGE DUE TO THE STRUCTURED BET SIZE. WHAT ELSE COULD IT BE?

[formula_2002]

I WILL UPLOAD YESTERDAYS RESULTS TO MY WEB SITE

20 RACES
WIN POOL ROI =0.28
TOP LINE EXACTA ROI =0.22
BOTTOM LINE EXACTA ROI = 0.28

the plays were profitable when the factor value was >=90



IF WE DID NOT HAVE DAYS LIKE THIS THERE WOULD BE NO BLACK SWANS AND DINOSAURS WOULD STILL BE HERE ON EARTH


I ALSO INCLUDE THE RESULTS FOR THE PAST 18 DAYS

WIN POOL ROI =0.95 FOR 347 RACES
TOP LINE EXACTA ROI =0.86 FOR 216 RACES
BOTTOM LINE EXACTA ROI = 1.00 FOR 347 RACES

This is the first in 18 days where the expected winners in the win pool were so much less than the expected winners

[formula_2002]

MY WEB PAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THRUSDAY'S RESULTS



19 DAYS OF RACING

BEST ROI'S HAVE A FACTOR BET SIZE >=90


FOR 34 OF 189 RACES


WIN POOL (FLAT BET SIZE) 1.12


TOP LINE EXACTA PLAY 1.02

BOTTOM LINE EXACTA PLAY 1.15

WIN POOL (FACTOR BET SIZE) 1.19

SEE EXCEL SHEET 1 FOR DAILY SUMMARY

SEE EXCEL SHEET1(2) FOR SUMMARY BY FACTOR SIZE

[formula_2002]

some comments about yesterdays 7 race performance.
(I'll update my web site with results tomorrow)

there were four races where the factor was >=90
in the win pool, $774 played returned $1098, 1.42 roi
a flat win bet on those four races returned $4, 1.00 roi

in those four races the topline exacta roi was 0.27
the bottom line roi was 0.39

a flat bet on all 7 win plays returned a 0.57 roi

[formula_2002]

I'll just be posting the win plays where the factor is >=90. at this time their roi's are the about the same for top and bottom line exactas and flat and factor win pool bets.

I also post non USA races for same but will keep those results separate

[formula_2002]

I'll just be posting the win plays where the factor is >=90. at this time their roi's are the about the same for top and bottom line exactas and flat and factor win pool bets.

I'LL also post non USA races for same but will keep those results separate


i'LL GO 1 STEP FURTHER.
i'LL ALSO POST A BET AGAINST THE PICK WHEN THE FACTOR VALUE IS <90, AND USE MY SECOND CHOICE AS THE WIN PLAY

[formula_2002]

I WAS JUST UPDATING MY RESULTS AND THOUGHT THIS WORTH MENTIONING

WHEN THE FACTOR >=90 AND FINAL ODDS<1-1, THE AVERAGE ODDS ARE =0.77 AND THE FACTOR ROI IS 1.18. THOSE RESULTS ARE FOR 51 RACES.
THE EXPECTED NUMBER OF WINS IS 25, THE ACTUAL WINS ARE 34




NOW

WHEN THE FACTOR <90 AND FINAL ODDS<1-1, THE AVERAGE ODDS ARE =0.77 AND THE FACTOR ROI IS 0.70. THOSE RESULTS ARE FOR 47 RACES.
THE EXPECTED NUMBER OF WINS IS 23, THE ACTUAL WINS ARE 20.

CONCLUSION
RESULTS FOR A FACTOR >=90 COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
MANY MORE RACES ARE REQUIRED

[formula_2002]

correction



I WAS JUST UPDATING MY RESULTS AND THOUGHT THIS WORTH MENTIONING

WHEN THE FACTOR >=90 AND FINAL ODDS<1-1, THE AVERAGE ODDS ARE =0.52 AND THE FACTOR ROI IS 1.04. THOSE RESULTS ARE FOR 35 RACES.
THE EXPECTED NUMBER OF WINS IS 20, THE ACTUAL WINS ARE 25




NOW

WHEN THE FACTOR <90 AND FINAL ODDS<1-1, THE AVERAGE ODDS ARE =0.74 AND THE FACTOR ROI IS 0.77. THOSE RESULTS ARE FOR 42 RACES.
THE EXPECTED NUMBER OF WINS IS 20, THE ACTUAL WINS ARE 18.

CONCLUSION
RESULTS FOR A FACTOR >=90 COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
MANY MORE RACES ARE REQUIRED

[formula_2002]

all is still going well the win plays whose factor is >=90
of the 239 plays reviewed, 50 were playable

a flat bet roi returned a 1.16 roi
a factor bet size returned a 1.19 roi
a 10% of bankroll returned a 1.14 roi

there were never more than two losses in a row.
I'm going to post win bets for the races whose factor is >=90
I'll also use a bet size based on 20% of bankroll


in the 239 race sample there were 95 winners, average odds 1.35-1,that's a 39%
in the 50 race sample there were 34 winners, average odds 2.02-1, that's a 68% win rate

if I say there should have been 39% winners in the 50 races sample there would be 20 winners, yet there were 34 winners. Right or wrong I calculate that to be at about the 95% confidence level.

[formula_2002]

I up dated my results file
my picks in the "selections forum" will be based on what is shown in my web site results file, "ANALYSIS" tab

best producer is the 89 race sample that is almost at the 1% confidence level
odds range >=1 and <2 and factor >=18
flat bet roi = 1.06, factor bet size roi =1.28
and the dream continues