If there were a way to beat the races it would be based on......

[fishorsechess]

(1) Overlays- Everyone handicapper knows this however
no one has really came up with a system to say
that horse "a" value is equal to...... They may tell
you to make a odds line of your own but that is just
your intuitive guess of what the odds should be.
(2) Playing Exotics- The greatest value exists in these
pools and not in win,place,show
(3) Smart Money- I knew someone who "claimed" to
beat the races with a tote board system.
(4) Key Horse
(5) Selectivity of Races or specializing in certain races
(6) Handicappping info not readily accessible to the
general public like the "Sheets" which cost a lot.
(7) Care to finish this list?????

[Steve 'StatMan']

I think the only key on the list is your first one, Overlays. Even with great information, or knowing where the 'smart money' is, if the horse gets bet down to being an underlay, you still won't make money in the long run.

Some of the other items are potential tools to lead you in the right direction. 'Handicapping info not availalbe to others' is indeed a valuable plus, provided the information enhances your assessment of a horse who is an overlay. If the private figs I use tell me me a horse has an advantage, but the Sheets say it too, and the Beyers, and all the others say he's a standout, we're still not going to get an advantage. But in the the instances where our information is different and correct, we may be able to find a good overaly. Then, with proper racing luck, we may get the winning ticket home.

[Bruddah]

because they are not reflected in any pool. Therefore, no one can see your bet and the odds to $1 returned are the greatest. Giving you a maximum ROI.

[fmhealth]

I'd add PHYSICALITY. It's my final "screen" before betting. Actually I can't imagine anyone betting w/o a final physical inspection.

Cannot tell you how many horses look GREAT in the DRF only to look TERRIBLE in the paddock. Of course sometimes they still win. But, more often than not they lose !!

As a 4x a week regular during the AP meet. I can usually tell which horses will "be heard from" during the course of the race. It's a wonderful "edge" that far few 'cappers take advantage of.

[charleslanger]

1. The first one i would add, Bankroll Management & Betting--may not be the most important-- but should be placed #1 because often it can turn a slight negative expectation into a positive one, and a small one into alternative income / employment. This category itself has many, many subcategories.

In a way the handicapping itself is not that crucial to turn a profit if one can already get say, close the track take investment return.
I would say that at least ¼, maybe close to ½ of those with an roi of .8 or more(meaning an actual loss of 20% or less) can actually turn it into positive cash flow by/with: 1. fine-tooth handicapping their betting records(subset of this if you can afford it: when running / testing theories systems, bet something: at least a dollar, rather than just 'pretend') The most important subset of this would be adding Velocity to the betting. 2. adjusting their wagering formulas depending on their type of advantage-- not just Kelly or %, but also parlay / progression -wise. Dave Schwartz goes into this in his set of Bankroll manuscripts-- also giving you ideas to tweak / take a step further on your own; Examples and other related info can be found in some of the instructional video courses sold for the Horsestreet program(they should kick-start your mind to develop new or put to good use examples / methods you may already have). 3. Rebates

Sorry to get so long-winded, but i believe that's how close to a steady income many actually are.....
.

[Tuffmug]

Careful analysis and determination of form for each horse with an emphasis on trainer intent. In a world populated with speed, class, trip and pace figure types, form is often overlooked and underbet. There are no good numbers out there for form and there are plenty of voodoo type theories (Bounce theory for example) out there to confuse the picture.

Good form analysis is like the analytical process involved in knowing and reading the "tells" of every player at a poker table. You know what they have before they turn them over.

Form analysis is fuzzy logic gray reasoning but it makes me lots of green!

[jjmcgo]

I think it would be not beating yourself.
You know, the kind of thinking that goes like this:
"Well, the 6-5 shot will probably win but that's too short a price for me and I'll take a shot with the horse that's 5-1."

That's different than believing the 5-1 shot is a better horse than the 6-5 shot.

Another big mistake is betting a lot of money on short-priced horses and small amounts on longshots that you like.

Another long-term bankroll killer is place and show bets. Studies show you'll do better in the long run with just win bets.

[Myhorse1_X]

Fishorsechess:

One of the most important (in my opinion) that a handicapper should determine what horses are in current form.

I have done an extensive study on horses that won and where they were and what they did in the last race. It took me about 6 months to compile enough information to at last get a handle of
horses that were in current form today.

I have found that sometimes favorites are not in current form and the public doesn't see it and the winner goes off at a good price.

Current form is more important in claiming and allowance races. Seldom do you see a stakes race with horses that are not ready to run.

MyHorse1

[keenang]

I HAVE A PROBLEM BETTING OVERLAYS,I CAN'T UNDERSTAND WHY I SHOULD BET A HORSE THAT I THINK IS THE 3,4,OR 5 BEST HORSE IN THE RACE JUST BECAUSE HIS ODDS ARE GOOD.
I AM SURE THAT THE VALUE BOYS ARE RIGHT, BUT IT IS TOUGH TO DO. SO MANY TIMES I BET THE OVERLAY AND MY TOP RATEDHORSE WINS THE RACE.
GENE

[charleslanger]

keenang: I HAVE A PROBLEM BETTING OVERLAYS,I CAN'T UNDERSTAND WHY I SHOULD BET A HORSE THAT I THINK IS THE 3,4,OR 5 BEST HORSE IN THE RACE JUST BECAUSE HIS ODDS ARE GOOD.
I AM SURE THAT THE VALUE BOYS ARE RIGHT, BUT IT IS TOUGH TO DO. SO MANY TIMES I BET THE OVERLAY AND MY TOP RATEDHORSE WINS THE RACE.
GENE
What about either a win dutch of top-rated with the biggest one or two overlays-- Or exactas: top-reated above and underneath top two overlays plus top-rated & top overlay over top two favorites(this could be as low as $8 total if labeled $1 part-wheels...)?
.

[BillW]

Originally posted by keenang


I AM SURE THAT THE VALUE BOYS ARE RIGHT, BUT IT IS TOUGH TO DO. SO MANY TIMES I BET THE OVERLAY AND MY TOP RATEDHORSE WINS THE RACE.
GENE

Gene,

Do your records show that this occurs enough that you are losing money? If so you need to reexamine what you consider an overlay.

If it just "seems" that way, i.e. your emotional makeup is not such that you can deal with the lower win percentage and longer losing streaks, simply look at a more conservative (higher win percentage) approach.

Doing what you feel comfortable with (and win with!) is more important than doing what you percieve other people to be doing.

Bill

[keenang]

:)
THANKS CHAS. AND BILL W.
I MAY TRY BOTH OF YOUR SUGGESTIONS
THANKS AGAIN GENE

[Larry Hamilton]

a secret

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by keenang
I HAVE A PROBLEM BETTING OVERLAYS,I CAN'T UNDERSTAND WHY I SHOULD BET A HORSE THAT I THINK IS THE 3,4,OR 5 BEST HORSE IN THE RACE JUST BECAUSE HIS ODDS ARE GOOD.
I AM SURE THAT THE VALUE BOYS ARE RIGHT, BUT IT IS TOUGH TO DO. SO MANY TIMES I BET THE OVERLAY AND MY TOP RATEDHORSE WINS THE RACE.
GENE

You're on the right path. The horse doesn't know his odds. He only knows if he feels like running.

You just have to hit a higher percentage than the odds suggest. If you're going to bet short priced horses, you better be darned good at it. Otherwise, pass and wait for the horse you can back and expect to win.

[maxwell]

Eliminate losers and set your betting line at the same time.

I use the ML faves. that are 5/2 and lower as the targets to set the line. I do this as these horses are generally the horses with the best last-race Beyer.And there is no way I am going to get 6/1 on these guys so I don't want waste time handicapping them.

Sprints:

4 - 5 f. = 6 Beyers

5 1/2 - 6 1/2 f. = 8 Beyers

7 - 1 m. ( one-turn) = 10 Beyers

Routes ( two-turns) = 8 Beyers

example:

The top target has a 90 Beyer at today's class (or better) on the surface and at the distance ( within one Furlong) in the past year.
As close to July 12th, 2003 as possible.

I give the possible contenders a year so I have to give the targets the same consideration.

Today's race is 7 f. so the Beyer is 10 points. I then split the 10 in half to get my betting line.

85 = 6/1

80 = 12/1

Any horse that hasn't gotten at least an 80 in the past year is eliminated.

The 10 points is nothing more than 4 beaten points but you can see which races to use as running lines in a flash !

I hope this makes sense :)

[maxwell]

Sorry .... 4 beaten points should be 4 beaten lengths :)

[First_Place]

Watchu mean 'if'? There ARE people that beat the races on a regular basis--albeit a small percentage of all players. To answer your question in a roundabout manner, I'd say some, any or all of the above plus a few that you don't have listed. It depends entirely upon the individual handicapper's style and talent.

FP