THEORY promising 2yo

[pandy]

For those of you who like to start talking about the Kentucky Derby ten months early, today at Saratoga in the third, a two year old in the Pletcher barn who was reportedly training like a good thing, Theory, by Gemologist out of a proven Officer broodmare, shot out of the gate, set the pace under pressure, shook off that one at the quarter pole and then when another horse came up to challenge, Theory drew off impressively to win his debut in 1:09.4 at a well meant 3/5 odds. Check out the replay.

[EMD4ME]

For those of you who like to start talking about the Kentucky Derby ten months early, today at Saratoga in the third, a two year old in the Pletcher barn who was reportedly training like a good thing, Theory, by Gemologist out of a proven Officer broodmare, shot out of the gate, set the pace under pressure, shook off that one at the quarter pole and then when another horse came up to challenge, Theory drew off impressively to win his debut in 1:09.4 at a well meant 3/5 odds. Check out the replay.

He toyed with those children. Very nice. I like how at the 1/8 he was asked a bit and he accelerated away. Nice.

[Shemp Howard]

Any predictions on the Beyer?

[cj]

Any predictions on the Beyer?

I'd guess around 90 with the evidence so far today. The race right after was about 10 or 11 points faster on raw time.

[cj]

How about Big League?

[SuperPickle]

Todd Pletcher 2YO first-time starters at Saratoga in dirt sprints when bet to odds-on favoritism:

2010-2014: 24-19-2-1
2015: 0-0-0-0
2016: 1-1?

[cj]

Todd Pletcher 2YO first-time starters at Saratoga in dirt sprints when bet to odds-on favoritism:

2010-2014: 24-19-2-1
2015: 0-0-0-0
2016: 1-1?

I should probably take the money, but I just turn the page in those spots. (or click the mouse)

[classhandicapper]

Any predictions on the Beyer?

Preliminary 84

[cj]

Preliminary 84

Shrinkage :)

[sammy the sage]

the REAL question...how many of those july/aug. SUPER 2yr.olds are EVEN racing STILL by next May as 3 yr. olds...

Historically......especially if trained by....not many

[cj]

the REAL question...how many of those july/aug. SUPER 2yr.olds are EVEN racing STILL by next May as 3 yr. olds...

Historically......especially if trained by....not many

Worked out alright for Nyquist and Exagerator.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Worked out alright for Nyquist and Exagerator.




the majority of 2 yr olds who win or start early in July/August you dont here much from them again in a year.I would like to know the winners from 2 yr old races in July/August at Saratoga last year and see what they are doing now.

[cj]

the majority of 2 yr olds who win or start early in July/August you dont here much from them again in a year.I would like to know the winners from 2 yr old races in July/August at Saratoga last year and see what they are doing now.

This is a myth. The stats don't back it up at all. In fact, the more horses race early, the longer the careers last I checked. Of course some of that is because horses that don't debut until late have issues. But in general, the horses that can race early aren't any worse off than those that don't.

[Tom]

Secretariat, Affirmed, Alydar, Seattle Slew....

I don't think the racing early is half the problem as lousy trainers today is.

[classhandicapper]

I don't really care when a horse debuts, but I prefer when horses develop slowly. Unless the horse just happens to be a champion, I don't like when they come out running huge figures in their first couple of starts. It seem to me that a lot of those horses don't last long.

[pandy]

This is a myth. The stats don't back it up at all. In fact, the more horses race early, the longer the careers last I checked. Of course some of that is because horses that don't debut until late have issues. But in general, the horses that can race early aren't any worse off than those that don't.


Steve Crist wrote about this a few times. I've never kept stats on it but from observation it seems to me that most horses will benefit from a solid two year old foundation.

[cj]

I don't really care when a horse debuts, but I prefer when horses develop slowly. Unless the horse just happens to be a champion, I don't like when they come out running huge figures in their first couple of starts. It seem to me that a lot of those horses don't last long.

Could be chicken or egg thing. Do the horses have issues so they are totally cranked up early to get what they can out of them, or does the big race doom them? Probably a mixture of the two like most things.

[Broad Brush]

The NY bred filly "Twist 'n Shout" that won the 2nd race today is a filly
to follow. Her time seemed quick---but what I really liked was that it
was her first start and when galloping back after the race I think I saw her try to bite another horse next to her. This is a great attitude to have especially
for a 2yo filly.

[pandy]

The NY bred filly "Twist 'n Shout" that won the 2nd race today is a filly
to follow. Her time seemed quick---but what I really liked was that it
was her first start and when galloping back after the race I think I saw her try to bite another horse next to her. This is a great attitude to have especially
for a 2yo filly.


She was definitely well meant on the odds board.

[classhandicapper]

Could be chicken or egg thing. Do the horses have issues so they are totally cranked up early to get what they can out of them, or does the big race doom them? Probably a mixture of the two like most things.

I don't know, but I think trainers have different philosophies on it.