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View Full Version : Betting Dilemma, what would you do?


Cice
07-27-2016, 11:27 AM
Ok, I like CAPTAIN GAUGHEN in today's 7th at the spa (on my watch list), but it seems like everyone and their mother likes also.

When DRF has a horse as it's Best Bet, that usually moves money as well. So with that being said, I think the horse will be 9/5 or below and my rule is not to put a win bet on a horse lower than 5/2 (I will bet at 2/1 if I'm feeling it).

So how should I handle it if horse is very low odds? Pass? Should i try to get with a P3 with this horse being the last leg? Thanks and GL today!

*scr - Problem solved, but I'd still like to hear your thoughts. thx :confused:

johnhannibalsmith
07-27-2016, 11:50 AM
The vast majority of the time I'd pass if the horse isn't going to offer price that I need. But, at Saratoga, if I reeeaaalllly liked the horse, I'd sure look at the surrounding races to see if a pick bet made sense. With big fields, tough races, and large pools - I'm not real eager to see my best bet type pay $5.80 but anchor a $500 pick 3 with a couple nice prices that turn that best bet into a 5-1 or 6-1 or better proposition. Then again, I usually get destroyed at Saratoga probably because I can justify moves like this. :D

FlintAtTheFetlock
07-27-2016, 12:04 PM
Ok, I like CAPTAIN GAUGHEN in today's 7th at the spa (on my watch list), but it seems like everyone and their mother likes also.

When DRF has a horse as it's Best Bet, that usually moves money as well. So with that being said, I think the horse will be 9/5 or below and my rule is not to put a win bet on a horse lower than 5/2 (I will bet at 2/1 if I'm feeling it).

So how should I handle it if horse is very low odds? Pass? Should i try to get with a P3 with this horse being the last leg? Thanks and GL today!

*scr - Problem solved, but I'd still like to hear your thoughts. thx :confused:

Howdy,

He was a use for sure on my pick 4, but doesn't it look like Jacobson is in his wheelhouse with the quick claim, big score step up, now back down to claiming price to cash out? I know he is in a slump but a nice profit play angle.

I'll use :1: Asset Inflation and :10: in case last race took something out of him. :10: keeps himself close enough to be in with a shot late.

Good Luck

biggestal99
07-27-2016, 12:17 PM
CG Scratched.

Allan

dansan
07-27-2016, 12:18 PM
put $500 to win and cross your fingers

Tom
07-27-2016, 12:36 PM
Pass.
Suppose you bet and win......is it going to be enough to make any difference anyways?

biggestal99
07-27-2016, 01:13 PM
well I would play him as long as his odds were overlaid.

with the Jersey X its easy to get your odds and if you don't pass.

But the way the PM system plays right now, your overlay can go to underlay in a blink of an eye.

say I think CG is worth 8/5 (2.60), i'd want at least 5/2 (3.50) so I'd look at the early betting to see if I could get my price or not.

Allan

PS-I know that everyone doesn't live in Jersey, my suggestion is to move here if possible, it makes horseplaying really easy. you get your price, Great you lock in your odds, if not pass, don;t have to be concerned about late price drops.

Cice
07-27-2016, 01:22 PM
PS-I know that everyone doesn't live in Jersey, my suggestion is to move here if possible, it makes horseplaying really easy. you get your price, Great you lock in your odds, if not pass, don;t have to be concerned about late price drops.

What is the website anyway?

AndyC
07-27-2016, 04:21 PM
Ok, I like CAPTAIN GAUGHEN in today's 7th at the spa (on my watch list), but it seems like everyone and their mother likes also.

When DRF has a horse as it's Best Bet, that usually moves money as well. So with that being said, I think the horse will be 9/5 or below and my rule is not to put a win bet on a horse lower than 5/2 (I will bet at 2/1 if I'm feeling it).

So how should I handle it if horse is very low odds? Pass? Should i try to get with a P3 with this horse being the last leg? Thanks and GL today!

*scr - Problem solved, but I'd still like to hear your thoughts. thx :confused:


Either there is a good reason for your 5/2 "rule" or there isn't.

thaskalos
07-27-2016, 04:46 PM
IMO...you can't have arbitrary rules like "Never bet a horse at less than 5-2 odds"; your minimum odds requirement has to reflect the size of the field. If 5-2 is acceptable in a full field...then 8-5 might be acceptable in the 6-horse fields that we so often see in today's game.

AndyC
07-27-2016, 05:35 PM
IMO...you can't have arbitrary rules like "Never bet a horse at less than 5-2 odds"; your minimum odds requirement has to reflect the size of the field. If 5-2 is acceptable in a full field...then 8-5 might be acceptable in the 6-horse fields that we so often see in today's game.

Wouldn't your handicapping consider the size of the field? I don't think a 3/2 horse is more likely to win in a short field than a large field.

thaskalos
07-27-2016, 05:43 PM
Wouldn't your handicapping consider the size of the field? I don't think a 3/2 horse is more likely to win in a short field than a large field.

Andy...the original poster said that he demands 5-2 odds in order to make a win bet...and he didn't mention anything about field size. That's why I responded as I did. As far as your assertion about the 3/2 horses not winning more often in the short fields is concerned...if you were still a betting man...then I'd bet you that you are wrong.

AndyC
07-27-2016, 06:11 PM
Andy...the original poster said that he demands 5-2 odds in order to make a win bet...and he didn't mention anything about field size. That's why I responded as I did. As far as your assertion about the 3/2 horses not winning more often in the short fields is concerned...if you were still a betting man...then I'd bet you that you are wrong.

So your supposition is that a 3/2 horse in a short field is more likely to be underbet and/or a 3/2 horse in a large field is more likely to be overbet. I maintain that all factors including field size, post position, pace, jockey, trainer, etc. are cooked into the price. I am still a betting man, just not on horse races.

mowens33
07-27-2016, 06:34 PM
Ok, I like CAPTAIN GAUGHEN in today's 7th at the spa (on my watch list), but it seems like everyone and their mother likes also.

When DRF has a horse as it's Best Bet, that usually moves money as well. So with that being said, I think the horse will be 9/5 or below and my rule is not to put a win bet on a horse lower than 5/2 (I will bet at 2/1 if I'm feeling it).

So how should I handle it if horse is very low odds? Pass? Should i try to get with a P3 with this horse being the last leg? Thanks and GL today!

*scr - Problem solved, but I'd still like to hear your thoughts. thx :confused:

If you feel that the horse's far odds are 1-1, than at 8/5 > (50%>FO) its an an overlay.

thaskalos
07-27-2016, 06:50 PM
So your supposition is that a 3/2 horse in a short field is more likely to be underbet and/or a 3/2 horse in a large field is more likely to be overbet. I maintain that all factors including field size, post position, pace, jockey, trainer, etc. are cooked into the price. I am still a betting man, just not on horse races.

You are overthinking this, Andy. Let me see if I can make my "supposition" a little easier to understand:

The original poster said NOTHING about "underbet" or "overbet" horses. He said that he liked a horse in a particular race...and he was thinking of betting it. He also said that he doesn't like betting on horses to win when they go off at odds of less than 5-2. And I replied that, when we assign minimum-odds rules to our wagers...we should take the field size into consideration. Yes...if a handicapper makes his own line...then the field size is presumably entered into the calculation from the outset. But the original poster sounds like a "selection" oriented handicapper to me...since he didn't mention any line-making process that he may have implemented in his handicapping. All he said was that he demands at least 5-2 odds from his selections before he bets them.

If he requires 5-2 odds from a particular selection in a 6-horse field...then, shouldn't he require a higher odds minimum in a 12-horse field...to account for the added uncertainty and "chaos" presented in the more crowded field? Isn't the plight of the favorite greater in a 12-horse field than it is in a 6-horse field? Why do you suppose favorites win at a much higher rate in 6-horse races than they do in 12-horse races?

Again...I am not talking about "undervalued" or "overvalued" wagers here. I am talking about arbitrary minimum-odds requirement rules...which is what the original poster here was referring to.

barn32
07-27-2016, 08:06 PM
When in doubt pass. After all, if he wins, what did you miss out on?


I remember one time about 15 years ago I was playing poker (and the horses) in California at the Sycuan Indian Casino near Del Mar.

There was a quarter horse race going off (at a track I don't remember) and Brian Long was one of the jockeys.

Well, Brian Long was not a quarter horse jockey. I remembered him from Longacres. He was a good rider, but he developed a drug problem and disappeared. And now this is the first time I've seen him anywhere in a quite a long time.

But the one thing I did remember about Brian was his amazing ability to get horses out of the gate quick! This is a great skill to have in a quarter horse race. It also didn't make sense that Long would have a mount in this race. What was he doing riding a quarter horse? It was the old Andy Beyer thing that came to mind--"The logic of illogic."

The horse had to be live, and even though I had never bet a quarter horse before in my life at ten to one I was betting.

I had my racing form laid out on an empty adjacent table and was going back and forth between the form and the poker game inbetween hands. Someone at the table asked me who I liked in this race and I said the one.

He was nine to one now. I started making my way to the betting windows, which was kind of a walk from the poker room and there were TVs along the way. He was eight to one.

I got in line and he was seven to one. Six to one, five, four! Shit!

By the time I got to the window he was 8/5! I was so pissed off I just got out of line without betting and watched him win the race easy.

When I got back to the poker game two of the players thanked me for the pick.

GRRRRRRR!

AndyC
07-27-2016, 09:05 PM
......If he requires 5-2 odds from a particular selection in a 6-horse field...then, shouldn't he require a higher odds minimum in a 12-horse field...to account for the added uncertainty and "chaos" presented in the more crowded field? Isn't the plight of the favorite greater in a 12-horse field than it is in a 6-horse field? Why do you suppose favorites win at a much higher rate in 6-horse races than they do in 12-horse races?........

No! Uncertainty and chaos are all included in the price.

Favorites win at a much higher rate in a 6 horse field because the average price of a favorite is much lower than that of favorites in a 12 horse field. You will get far more even money horses in a 6 horse field, but that doesn't mean that even money horses win at a greater rate in a 6 horse field than they do in a 12 horse field.

thaskalos
07-27-2016, 09:27 PM
No! Uncertainty and chaos are all included in the price.

Favorites win at a much higher rate in a 6 horse field because the average price of a favorite is much lower than that of favorites in a 12 horse field. You will get far more even money horses in a 6 horse field, but that doesn't mean that even money horses win at a greater rate in a 6 horse field than they do in a 12 horse field.

That's why I said that an adjustment needs to be made to our minimum odds requirements when we are dealing with the short fields, Andy. The prices of the horses are much lower in the short fields than they are in the 12-horse fields. It isn't fair to expect the same odds requirement in both short and full fields.

If you set a 5-2 minimum win-bet odds limit for yourself...do you think you will find more bets in the big fields...or in the short fields?

Poindexter
07-27-2016, 10:51 PM
This thread is exactly why you should learn how to make an oddsline. But if you do not want to, at least keep records. Rate your top selections as
A) Standouts(lays over the field)
B) Strong Top Choices(looks clearly best)
c) Good Top Choices(look best in a fairly tough race)
D) Weak top choice(struggled to come up with top choice or major form clouds or best in a very contentious wide open race)

Maybe an A- and B- category for horses in between(use labels that work with your thinking/analysis/grading procedures).

Track them by field size.
A)7 or less(do not see a point in weeding out 5 horse field or shorter as you are better off donating your money to the homeless guy you pass up on the freeway exit than betting fields with 5 or less horses).
B) 8-9
C)10+

Once you have significant data in you will be more prepared for these types of situations. If the strike price is not high enough there is always the option of a key in the multi pick bets, just make sure there is some obvious(to you) value in the other races. A horse that is fair value 8/5 that is only 6/5 may make a lousy win bet but could be a really good single in a pick 4/pick 5.... loaded with value and in need of a single. Next option of course would be to try to extact value some other way(exacta, double.......once again you have to perceive value) or let the horse win or lose without you. Plenty of other races to bet ahead of you.

biggestal99
07-28-2016, 08:08 AM
What is the website anyway?

Exchange.us.betfair.com

Allan

Cice
07-28-2016, 12:38 PM
I think I need to readjust my thoughts on betting a horse below the odds i specify, it is race dependent. If my horse did run, I only would have bet if 5/2 or above. Good chance to win, not a lock.

Thanks all!