Dutching Help/Advice Please.. PLEASE :)

[Conquer]

Hello again. As I get back into betting the ponies I have decided to focus solely and only on WIN bets for the time being (at least until I accumulate enough data before setting out and betting exotics, namely superfectas).

Solely on WIN bets for the time being... With that said, I have just finished doing my analysis on the past 30 days of my selections/plays and the bottom line results are better than I expected, HOWEVER, it turns out that my WIN % increases quite nicely if I were to bet the TOP 2 Horses from my selections.

As it turns out, the TOP 2 horses I end up with after handicapping a race, over the past 30 days, 60 races, less than 15 of those races saw both of my TOP 2 horses come in 1st and 2nd, or even anywhere ITM for that matter. So it rules out obviously Exactas and Trifectas.

The thing is, it turns out that EITHER one of my TOP 2 selections come in virtually an equal amount of times. That being said, it is anyone's guess on which Horse of the 2 to play, AND as it turns out, a little over 20% of the time one of the 2 selections paid VERY handsomely; 1 time paid $34.40, another $22.20, and others above $15!

I want to try and maximize my WIN % and so I remembered DUTCHING. Naturally I have searched it on Youtube and on Bing.com, but I wanted to get real life user opinions.

Do you any of you guys dutch consistently? Or can anyone give me any advice on the best way to go about it?

For example; has anyone found a 'formula' in the sense that one should NOT dutch if the odds fall below a certain level? Or perhaps one should dutch only if there is XX amount of space BETWEEN the 2 odds?

Does anyone have an odds chart / dutching chart they could send me?

Thank you in advance!
-- Conquer

[steveb]

if you have two horses at 3/1 each, then that is odds of 1/4 or 25% each of them.
what is the difference between backing one horse at even money and two at 3 to 1?
it is the same bet in my language.

if there is anybody alive that wins from just backing one horse in a race, then i would be very surprised.

i don't know how they display the prices for the win in usa.
but if something showed 10 dollars return for a 1 dollar bet then that is 100/10 = 10%

if something showed 2 dollars then that is even money 100/2 = 50%

so you just divide the dividend by 100 and sum them

so long as the sum of your percentages is less than 100 then you win something if one of your horse gets up.

but if you can allot probability better than your average joe then you should bet them according to your own opinion, provided you can get bigger price.
say if i thought something should pay 2, but 5 was available, then i would bet it if it was 2 dollars.....that is 50 dollars for every 100.
there are probably better ways to do it, but that is how i did it for most of my betting life.


i can't speak for others, but i never made selections as such, i just gave everything a probability, and would back any of them if the price available was right.
and that would also mean NOT backing my shortest(or any of them) priced horse if the odds available were less than mine.

i am assuming you are only a small bet size person, or you would not be asking.
if you are biggish then i guess you also have to take into account what your own bets will do in the parimutuel pool.

[PICSIX]

This may help.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=103604&highlight=Dave+Schwartz

[woodbinepmi]

Here is a dutching calculator:

http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/dutching_calculator.asp

[StormAgain]

I've been using profit lines to calculate how much to bet on two overlays recently. The advantage here is your bet amount is based on your opinion other than tote odds.

Example:
Bet size: $20
Horse A - profit line 3-1 (25%), tote 4-1
Horse B - profit line 6-1 (~14%), tote 8-1

Total odds to win: .25 + .14 = .39

Horse A amount = (.25 / .39) * $20 = ~$13
Return: $13 * 5 = $65

Horse B amount = (.14 / .39) * $20 = ~$7
Return: $7 * 9 = $63

So on the total bet you would get about $63 back from your $20 bet, around 2-1. But by betting two horses you like on the profit line combine around 39% or ~3-2 so there is some value.

I think my math is correct, but if anyone sees something off let me know.

I've also read of people doing similar with an edge to odds ratio, but this way is easier for me on the fly.

[Nitro]

I sometime use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) that a friend developed a while ago.
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
(The Objective is to receive the same $ return no matter who wins.)

GL
.
.

[mowens33]

Conquer, I have been Dutching for a couple of years and this is my advice

First learn to set your own lines (good book Value Handicapping by Mike Cramer), it takes some work but it will pay off in the long run, and make you a better handicapper to boot.

Dutch when you have 2 and sometimes 3 overlays horses that you have determined to be contenders. (what I consider an overlay to be is > 50% than what you set the horses odds at)

Example: 1/1 need 8/5>, 2/1 need 3/1>, 6/1 (max odds for contender) need 9/1.

Even horses that have morning lines that are much higher than 6/1 if you consider the horse a win contender 6/1 it is and 9/1 or greater is a bet.

I myself will make 1 horse play when I have a single overlay.

Just one player’s opinion!

Good Luck, Mike

[TJC]

Maybe this can help you.

You can get a free dutching/hedging calculator from George Green at http://www.crowncity.com/speedplus/

[Robert Fischer]

Dutching is optimal when you have two or more 'non-favorite' contenders, that can't be separated into a single best wager.

[traynor]

As it turns out, the TOP 2 horses I end up with after handicapping a race, over the past 30 days, 60 races, less than 15 of those races saw both of my TOP 2 horses come in 1st and 2nd, or even anywhere ITM for that matter. So it rules out obviously Exactas and Trifectas.

The thing is, it turns out that EITHER one of my TOP 2 selections come in virtually an equal amount of times.

Don't try to add complexity where complexity is not especially useful. If there is no difference in frequency of wins between your first and second choices, you have already solved most of the problem.

Dutching--in your case--might be most easily viewed as a single bet of $4, with equal amounts on first and second choices. "Conditional wagering" (flaky at the best of times) might be useful to bypass any selection that is less than even money at zero minutes to post. Not perfect, not exact, but it may add a bit to your bottom line.

The inverse of the above may be useful. When one selection is less than even money, put the whole amount on the second selection. That is something you have to determine from your own results. It works fine for my selection method, but YMMV.

[DeltaLover]

As controversial it might sound, “dutching” is a very weak approach to your betting structure and must be avoided when we are betting for profit.

I will not delve into the details of why this is happening but just mention epigrammatic that “dutching”:


Is not increasing your EV
Converts your betting position to a “self weighted” strategy resulting to a very weak strategy.



Try to understand that the objective of the (betting) game is not to cash winning tickets but to select positive EV bets regardless of their winning frequency.

Based on this principle, doing something as simple as always picking randomly your bet between your top two selections, you are never expected to end up with a worse performance compared to “dutching” both of them.

[whodoyoulike]

... I want to try and maximize my WIN % and so I remembered DUTCHING. Naturally I have searched it on Youtube and on Bing.com, but I wanted to get real life user opinions.

Do you any of you guys dutch consistently? Or can anyone give me any advice on the best way to go about it?

For example; has anyone found a 'formula' in the sense that one should NOT dutch if the odds fall below a certain level? Or perhaps one should dutch only if there is XX amount of space BETWEEN the 2 odds?

Does anyone have an odds chart / dutching chart they could send me?

Thank you in advance!
-- Conquer

I dutch very seldom and I haven't thought too much about a best or better formula.

But, isn't "to dutch your bets" with the same betting amount basically just lowering your acceptable odds for that particular race?

Now, if you were to dutch with different amounts, you may be better off than the same bets obviously only in some cases but again never looked into it.

[Robert Fischer]

As controversial it might sound, “dutching” is a very weak approach to your betting structure and must be avoided when we are betting for profit.

I will not delve into the details of why this is happening but just mention epigrammatic that “dutching”:





Is not increasing your EV
Converts your betting position to a “self weighted” strategy resulting to a very weak strategy.
Try to understand that the objective of the (betting) game is not to cash winning tickets but to select positive EV bets regardless of their winning frequency.

Based on this principle, doing something as simple as always picking randomly your bet between your top two selections, you are never expected to end up with a worse performance compared to “dutching” both of them.


Good post.


EV = same as randomly picking between your dutched selections

There are a couple bankroll related effects and a psychological effect.




Small Bankroll Guy(Mr. Minnow) = Dutching reduces the (random) risk of ruin should your Small Bankroll Guy actually be a positive expectation player. In the long-run, a negative expectation player is going to lose either way.


Large Bankroll Guy(Mr. Whale) = Dutching increases the available churn before hitting the pool ceiling.


Psychological Effect(Mr. On tilt) = More frequent winners, and shorter losing streaks help players who are prone to irrational behavior or 'deprival super reaction syndrome' (https://janav.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/deprival-super-reaction-syndrome/) relating losses and losing streaks (of course such players will not win in the long run regardless of such a crutch).

[traynor]

As controversial it might sound, “dutching” is a very weak approach to your betting structure and must be avoided when we are betting for profit.

I will not delve into the details of why this is happening but just mention epigrammatic that “dutching”:


Is not increasing your EV
Converts your betting position to a “self weighted” strategy resulting to a very weak strategy.



Try to understand that the objective of the (betting) game is not to cash winning tickets but to select positive EV bets regardless of their winning frequency.

Based on this principle, doing something as simple as always picking randomly your bet between your top two selections, you are never expected to end up with a worse performance compared to “dutching” both of them.

"Weak"--pick your bets, do your best, and still lose.

"Strong"--pick your bets, bet your picks, and win.

For many people, dutching two horses (and sometimes three) makes it fairly simple to show a bottom line profit. As I mentioned above, it is in situations in which dutching is viewed as a "double wager" (and still generates a tidy profit) that it is most useful.

The key component, obviously, is the selection method employed. The more long prices contained in your top two choices (providing win frequency is fairly high) the easier it is to make a profit dutching win bets.

[Maximillion]

If you have a good method for finding longer priced horses(and it seems you do,at least so far) and since your focusing on win betting only.....I think your decision is a simple one.
If 2 of these longer priced horses happen to show up in the same race,I think betting the full amount(% of bankroll?)on both would be the best way to go.