Lemon Drop Husker
07-24-2016, 08:43 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kcmwXUdDCE
The leaves aren't brown, and the sky won't be gray, but we will be California Dreaming today.
A simple $150K Stakes race that has the quality of a Grade 2 race with the entries lined up to be running in this one.
The real question for most in this one is the 8.5 furlongs and the surface. Many a horse stretching out in here with turf not being their specialty.
:1: Magic Mark: Turf? Out of 15 lifetime starts this gelding has only ran on the grass a single time. And finished 7th and 22 lengths back in that one. Likely the worst performance of his career. Not only that, but distance is a huge question mark. Have to pass.
:2: Ambitious Brew: Yes, he is good on grass, but as a sprinter and upwards to a mile. How will he handle 8.5 Furlongs? Connections also tried him on dirt last out and was spanked in a G1 by Lord Nelson at 7F while fading. 4/1 ML sees a bit aggressive as I don't see a race in him that can win this one.
:3: Boozer: The return of Gary Stevens in the irons is interesting. He also has a nice record at Del Mar with 2 wins and 3 of 4 hitting the board. Distance is the question mark here though as he does his best work on or near the lead.
:4: Somethings Unusual: He is a straight up turf sprint closer. And against decent competition he has never been able to raise his game. Tough to see an in the money finish out of this one.
:5: Alert Bay: He won the G3 San Francisco 2 back at a mile on the turf and has 12 wins in 27 career races. Always bet, and almost always game, this looks to be the one to beat. He is also 2 for 3 at the distance and can get 8.5 furlongs unlike nearly all of his foes in here today. A classic stalker that should be sitting a bit further back today. Can he deal with that?
:6: Patriots Rule: Extremely difficult to look past the near year away from racing for this guy. And that is after 3 really poor efforts prior to his extended layoff. His Del Mar record is garbage, and Talamo hasn't won anything of note in quite a while. Really tough to make a case for this one.
:7: Poshsky: Likely coming off of a career best effort in the Crystal Water Stakes in which he edged out :5: Alert Bay at the wire. He definitely fits with these, and can run big in back to back races. He could also sit a nice trip in here with a number of front end horses and speed taking to the front where he may well be able to run uncontested for a good portion of the early running. He is an all or nothing type horse, so tread lightly in exotics wagering.
:8: Soi Phet: Turf? Coming into this one he is in near career best form.., but that is on dirt. Kent Desormeaux has been in the irons over his last 4 races in which he has hit the exacta every time. And in stakes company. His turf record, however, is a bit concerning being 1 for 11 and another 2 Shows. ML of 9/2 isn't where I'd be laying my money.
:9: Avanti Bello: Turf? Of his 14 career races, only 2 have been ran on turf, and zero wins, much less board finishes, have come about in those 2 tries. Distance shouldn't be a problem, but he has to be near the lead to be a factor in a race full of horses stretching out. Really tough horse to pass on with Bejarano and O'Neill, but there are better options in here.
SUMMARY: Pretty crazy race all things considered, and really tough to land on a winner. Should be a quick pace, even on the turf, and at an extended distance for a number of these in here.
W: :3: Boozer
The leaves aren't brown, and the sky won't be gray, but we will be California Dreaming today.
A simple $150K Stakes race that has the quality of a Grade 2 race with the entries lined up to be running in this one.
The real question for most in this one is the 8.5 furlongs and the surface. Many a horse stretching out in here with turf not being their specialty.
:1: Magic Mark: Turf? Out of 15 lifetime starts this gelding has only ran on the grass a single time. And finished 7th and 22 lengths back in that one. Likely the worst performance of his career. Not only that, but distance is a huge question mark. Have to pass.
:2: Ambitious Brew: Yes, he is good on grass, but as a sprinter and upwards to a mile. How will he handle 8.5 Furlongs? Connections also tried him on dirt last out and was spanked in a G1 by Lord Nelson at 7F while fading. 4/1 ML sees a bit aggressive as I don't see a race in him that can win this one.
:3: Boozer: The return of Gary Stevens in the irons is interesting. He also has a nice record at Del Mar with 2 wins and 3 of 4 hitting the board. Distance is the question mark here though as he does his best work on or near the lead.
:4: Somethings Unusual: He is a straight up turf sprint closer. And against decent competition he has never been able to raise his game. Tough to see an in the money finish out of this one.
:5: Alert Bay: He won the G3 San Francisco 2 back at a mile on the turf and has 12 wins in 27 career races. Always bet, and almost always game, this looks to be the one to beat. He is also 2 for 3 at the distance and can get 8.5 furlongs unlike nearly all of his foes in here today. A classic stalker that should be sitting a bit further back today. Can he deal with that?
:6: Patriots Rule: Extremely difficult to look past the near year away from racing for this guy. And that is after 3 really poor efforts prior to his extended layoff. His Del Mar record is garbage, and Talamo hasn't won anything of note in quite a while. Really tough to make a case for this one.
:7: Poshsky: Likely coming off of a career best effort in the Crystal Water Stakes in which he edged out :5: Alert Bay at the wire. He definitely fits with these, and can run big in back to back races. He could also sit a nice trip in here with a number of front end horses and speed taking to the front where he may well be able to run uncontested for a good portion of the early running. He is an all or nothing type horse, so tread lightly in exotics wagering.
:8: Soi Phet: Turf? Coming into this one he is in near career best form.., but that is on dirt. Kent Desormeaux has been in the irons over his last 4 races in which he has hit the exacta every time. And in stakes company. His turf record, however, is a bit concerning being 1 for 11 and another 2 Shows. ML of 9/2 isn't where I'd be laying my money.
:9: Avanti Bello: Turf? Of his 14 career races, only 2 have been ran on turf, and zero wins, much less board finishes, have come about in those 2 tries. Distance shouldn't be a problem, but he has to be near the lead to be a factor in a race full of horses stretching out. Really tough horse to pass on with Bejarano and O'Neill, but there are better options in here.
SUMMARY: Pretty crazy race all things considered, and really tough to land on a winner. Should be a quick pace, even on the turf, and at an extended distance for a number of these in here.
W: :3: Boozer