Pace View 3 day selection thread

[Pensacola Pete]

This is MY selection thread for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It's not your selection thread. I can't stop people from posting whatever they want to, but no other selections but mine count for purposes of tallying.

The rules, as stated on the other thread, are:

1) I will post plays over the long weekend of Friday, Saturday and Sunday. BRIS single-format files will be used with Pace View.

2) I will be using certain tracks and excluding others. That list will be posted before I begin and won't be changed throughout the three days.

3) I will be using one or more "spot plays." The rules for each will be posted before I begin and will not change throughout the three days. All spot plays can be found by looking at the output screen. There won't be any judgement involved.

4) I'll post each day's plays well in advance of the first race at the first track. They will not take any scratches into account.

Additionally:

5) If a horse is chosen by more than one spot play, it still only gets bet one unit. No double bets, etc.

I already believe that I know which tracks I'll be using.

BEL
DEL
FL
LAD
LRL
PEN
PHA/PRX

I may change those tracks BEFORE the first play is listed.

I haven't chosen which spot plays I'll be using yet. They don't exist as one-clicks in Pace View. They're found by looking at the output screen and following the rules of selection.

I should have tomorrow's plays up sometime tonight.

[Pensacola Pete]

Belmont moved to Saratoga, so that circuit is out

This is the track list that will be used:

DEL
FL
LAD
LRL
MNR
PEN
PHA/PRX
WO

Delaware often runs an Arabian race as the last race of its card. These races will not be used. Also note that Pace View does not rate or provide output for races shorter than 5 furlongs.

Because some of those tracks don't run tomorrow, I'll be adding Monday to the mix. The test will run from Friday through Monday.

I'm using two simple spot plays. Here are the rules of the spot plays that will be used:

A) Top Pace View Power Rating if 10 or more points higher than the 2nd power rating. The Pace View Power rating appears under "POWR" next to the morning line odds. If only one horse is rated, that horse is the play.

B) Top Pace View Power Rating and 5-1 or higher in the morning line odds.

Plays for tomorrow will be posted shortly.

[Pensacola Pete]

Plays for Friday. Some horses qualified on both plays but are counted as one bet, as per the rules:

LAD-01 #8 MISS ARDYN
LAD-02 #6 MI FLORA ROJA
LAD-07 #5 BONESPRINGS
---
LRL-04 #6 CHARLESBRECKENRIDGE
LRL-05 #7 ON YOUR MACH
LRL-06 #7 PUGET SOUND
LRL-07 #8 MAC NORTH
LRL-08 #12 CLASS EDGE
---
PEN-01 #1 SARATOGA ANGEL
PEN-02 #4 GAIN
PEN-03 #7 TALKIN CITY
PEN-04 #1 PICK YOUR PLEASURE
PEN-06 #4 GRANDPA'S KING
PEN-02 #2 PARABOLA
---
WOX-02 #1 TIMBERLINE
WOX-03 #4 NINTH SYMPHONY
WOX-04 #9 CONSCIOUS DECISION
WOX-06 #2 TIZ BOBBY
WOX-09 #2 EXECUTIVEGUTS
-------------

If you see any errors per the selection criteria, please let me know. Once again, plays are made WITHOUT regard to subsequent scratches.

[EMD4ME]

Plays for Friday. Some horses qualified on both plays but are counted as one bet, as per the rules:

LAD-01 #8 MISS ARDYN
LAD-02 #6 MI FLORA ROJA
LAD-07 #5 BONESPRINGS
---
LRL-04 #6 CHARLESBRECKENRIDGE
LRL-05 #7 ON YOUR MACH
LRL-06 #7 PUGET SOUND
LRL-07 #8 MAC NORTH
LRL-08 #12 CLASS EDGE
---
PEN-01 #1 SARATOGA ANGEL
PEN-02 #4 GAIN
PEN-03 #7 TALKIN CITY
PEN-04 #1 PICK YOUR PLEASURE
PEN-06 #4 GRANDPA'S KING
PEN-02 #2 PARABOLA
---
WOX-02 #1 TIMBERLINE
WOX-03 #4 NINTH SYMPHONY
WOX-04 #9 CONSCIOUS DECISION
WOX-06 #2 TIZ BOBBY
WOX-09 #2 EXECUTIVEGUTS
-------------

If you see any errors per the selection criteria, please let me know. Once again, plays are made WITHOUT regard to subsequent scratches.

PP,

I see rule #4 but don't you want to wait for late scratches before selecting? What if there's a key scratch that lowers the odds on your horse or affects pace?

You might detest by existence but I'm just looking out....

EMD4ME

[Pensacola Pete]

PP,

I see rule #4 but don't you want to wait for late scratches before selecting? What if there's a key scratch that lowers the odds on your horse or affects pace?

EMD4ME

I did it this way for a reason. If the program can produce a profit under these conditions, it will obviously produce a better profit if used with scratches, post time odds, and with other handicapping and analysis.

This way, people can follow along by checking the plays against the results. Including scratches would require those checking plays to manually scratch horses in order to get the same plays. The way it's being done isn't as efficient, but it's easier to follow.

[EMD4ME]

I did it this way for a reason. If the program can produce a profit under these conditions, it will obviously produce a better profit if used with scratches, post time odds, and with other handicapping and analysis.

This way, people can follow along by checking the plays against the results. Including scratches would require those checking plays to manually scratch horses in order to get the same plays. The way it's being done isn't as efficient, but it's easier to follow.

That's cool, makes sense, good luck!

[Capper Al]

Pete,

How would you interpret the first race at Arlington this Saturday?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=17128&stc=1

[cloud9]

Capper Al
How did you get the full screen to come up ?

[Pensacola Pete]

Pete,

How would you interpret the first race at Arlington this Saturday?

[/url]

No idea. I don't play CDI tracks. If it was being run at Woodbine, I might play #4.

[Capper Al]

No idea. I don't play CDI tracks. If it was being run at Woodbine, I might play #4.

And why #4?

[Capper Al]

Capper Al
How did you get the full screen to come up ?

I have two monitors with different settings. My main one 1366 X 768 and main secondary is 1024 X 768. My first try I didn't get the full on the secondary, but I moved to the main it worked.

[NorCalGreg]

Pete,

How would you interpret the first race at Arlington this Saturday?



There's not much to bet there Al...maybe a small exacta since the top two are so close together. Not much on the win end at those ML.


Dennis (cloud9) you may have gotten ahold of an older version--I'll send the latest version in a link. I've still got your E-mail. When you get that, it looks exactly the same--just click the box in the upper right-hand corner and it will open up full screen :ThmbUp:

-NCG

[Pensacola Pete]

And why #4?

Because #4 looks like it will benefit the most from how I view the race shape, and it should be a reasonable price.

[Capper Al]

How would you handicap this if it wasn't a CDI track?

Thanks

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=17131&stc=1

[biggestal99]

AP #1 Lay the #1 horse

AP #8 lay the #5 horse

of course this is hypothetical since AP isn't on the X.

but those are 2 sure fire losers.

Allan

[Pensacola Pete]

How would you handicap this if it wasn't a CDI track?

Thanks

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=17131&stc=1

If I played the race, it would probably be Chilango. Any time a horse can get off to an uncontested lead at the kind of odds it will probably be, it's worth a shot.

[Pensacola Pete]

LAD-01 #8 x
LAD-02 #6 P
LAD-07 #5 x
---
LRL-04 #6 *Scratched*
LRL-05 #7 S
LRL-06 #7 P
LRL-07 #8 x
LRL-08 #12 P
---
PEN-01 #1 P
PEN-02 #4 S
PEN-03 #7 W 17.40
PEN-04 #1 x
PEN-06 #4 x
PEN-08 #2 *Scratched* (original post typo race number)
---
WOX-02 #1 S
WOX-03 #4 P
WOX-04 #9 W 11.90
WOX-06 #2 W 4.30
WOX-09 #2 P
-------------

Races: 17
Win: 3 (17.6%)
Place: 5
Show: 3 (ITM: 64.7%)
Bet: $34
Collected: $33.60
Net loss: 0.40

Note that several of the horses went off at good odds.


Back later with Saturday.

[Pensacola Pete]

Plays for Saturday:


DEL-01 # 6 FATHER DENNIS
DEL-02 # 6 DESPICABLE T
DEL-03 #11 AFLEET'S DIVIDEND
DEL-04 # 7 DANCING TINKERBELL
DEL-05 #10 JIRAVIT
DEL-06 # 7 QUARTET
DEL-08 # 1 RACETRACK ROMANCE
---
FLX-01 # 4 WISEMAN'S FATE
FLX-02 # 4 FAKEITTILUMAKEIT
FLX-03 # 1 KINER'S KORNER
FLX-05 # 3 NAIL IT
FLX-06 # 5 OWNER GENTLEMAN
FLX-07 # 4 WONDERMENT
FLX-08 # 8 NO DOWNSIDE
---
LAD-01 # 1 DANCE CALLER
LAD-02 # 4 THRIFT SHOP
LAD-04 # 6 MADAM DANCE
LAD-05 # 8 LASS CHANNEL
LAD-06 # 1 CANADIAN MAXIMUS
---
LRL-02 # 4 MISS MODELA
LRL-03 # 1 HURRICANE HAROLD
LRL-05 #10 DAFTAR
---
MNR-04 # 3 CARDIAC REHAB
MNR-05 # 5 CARSON'S TEN
MNR-06 # 5 JUST EM
MNR-07 # 2 SPECTACULAR LADY
MNR-08 # 5 ABI ALBON
MNR-09 # 4 PURE LUXURY
---
PEN-01 # 1 IGNOTUS
PEN-02 # 1 JUSTCALLME K L
PEN-03 # 3 OLYMPIC DIAMOND
PEN-06 # 7 CALCULATION
PEN-08 # 8 ENDLESS RIDE
---
PRX-02 #10 MIDNIGHT IN OCALA
PRX-03 # 1 STRONGBAKSTEELTOES
PRX-04 # 9 PURRIN' PROUD
PRX-05 # 1 RADIO ACTIVE
PRX-06 #1A DISCO CHICK
PRX-09 # 7 YOUARETRUE
---
WOX-05 # 1 HAPPY IS LUCKY
WOX-06 # 2 FIRST GIRL
WOX-07 # 7 SPLASHY GIRL
WOX-08 # 4 PUNTROOSKIE
WOX-09 # 1 DANGER BAY
WOX-10 # 2 DOLLY DAGGER
---

[Capper Al]

AP #1 Lay the #1 horse

AP #8 lay the #5 horse

of course this is hypothetical since AP isn't on the X.

but those are 2 sure fire losers.

Allan

Okay guys, I don't what the X is. I don't care if these horses win or lose. Two races doesn't determine anything. But what I would like to know is how are you reading the app to pick these two horse.

Thanks

[reckless]

Plays for Saturday:
...

PRX-02 #10 MIDNIGHT IN OCALA
PRX-03 # 1 STRONGBAKSTEELTOES
PRX-04 # 9 PURRIN' PROUD
PRX-05 # 1 RADIO ACTIVE
PRX-06 #1A DISCO CHICK
PRX-09 # 7 YOUARETRUE
...
---

I am not nitpicking but at Parx ...

Disco Chick is running in Race 7, not the 6th, and is program No. 4, not 1(A).

Youaretrue is running in Race 10, not Race 9.

[timtam]

Thanks Recklass,

Thats not notpicking thats a good board member advising us of an

error. Good job and thanks from all the board members who wouldn't

have found out until it was too late. Good job :)

[Pensacola Pete]

Thanks for pointing out the mistakes. What likely happened is that part of a line got deleted by mistake. The missing line is an additional play that the program selects at Parx race 6. All horse names are correct.

Here is the corrected list with numbers fixed and the missing play that caused one of the errors.

DEL-01 # 6 FATHER DENNIS
DEL-02 # 6 DESPICABLE T
DEL-03 #11 AFLEET'S DIVIDEND
DEL-04 # 7 DANCING TINKERBELL
DEL-05 #10 JIRAVIT
DEL-06 # 7 QUARTET
DEL-08 # 1 RACETRACK ROMANCE
---
FLX-01 # 4 WISEMAN'S FATE
FLX-02 # 4 FAKEITTILUMAKEIT
FLX-03 # 1 KINER'S KORNER
FLX-05 # 3 NAIL IT
FLX-06 # 5 OWNER GENTLEMAN
FLX-07 # 4 WONDERMENT
FLX-08 # 8 NO DOWNSIDE
---
LAD-01 # 1 DANCE CALLER
LAD-02 # 4 THRIFT SHOP
LAD-04 # 6 MADAM DANCE
LAD-05 # 8 LASS CHANNEL
LAD-06 # 1 CANADIAN MAXIMUS
---
LRL-02 # 4 MISS MODELA
LRL-03 # 1 HURRICANE HAROLD
LRL-05 #10 DAFTAR
---
MNR-04 # 3 CARDIAC REHAB
MNR-05 # 5 CARSON'S TEN
MNR-06 # 5 JUST EM
MNR-07 # 2 SPECTACULAR LADY
MNR-08 # 5 ABI ALBON
MNR-09 # 4 PURE LUXURY
---
PEN-01 # 1 IGNOTUS
PEN-02 # 1 JUSTCALLME K L
PEN-03 # 3 OLYMPIC DIAMOND
PEN-06 # 7 CALCULATION
PEN-08 # 8 ENDLESS RIDE
---
PRX-02 #10 MIDNIGHT IN OCALA
PRX-03 # 1 STRONGBAKSTEELTOES
PRX-04 # 9 PURRIN' PROUD
PRX-05 # 1 RADIO ACTIVE
PRX-06 #1A WILDCATPLEASURE
PRX-07 # 4 DISCO CHICK
PRX-10 # 7 YOUARETRUE
---
WOX-05 # 1 HAPPY IS LUCKY
WOX-06 # 2 FIRST GIRL
WOX-07 # 7 SPLASHY GIRL
WOX-08 # 4 PUNTROOSKIE
WOX-09 # 1 DANGER BAY
WOX-10 # 2 DOLLY DAGGER
---

[Pensacola Pete]

It just doesn't work like that. There are no "private" threads on this board.

There's no requirement for me to reply to any of the hijacking, either. I made a simple request to not hijack my thread. It wasn't honored. I didn't really expect it to be.

Feel free to do whatever you want. However, I won't reply to anything in this thread again until Monday's results are in, except for things on-topic such as the pointing out of errors made.

[cj]

There's no requirement for me to reply to any of the hijacking, either. I made a simple request to not hijack my thread. It wasn't honored. I didn't really expect it to be.

Feel free to do whatever you want. However, I won't reply to anything in this thread again until Monday's results are in, except for things on-topic such as the pointing out of errors made.

I don't read all the threads. It just isn't possible. Occasionally I'll glance through and see something that needs editing. People can report a post and I always check them. I didn't see your request in this thread (and still don't, where is it?) but in the future please just report it and I'll take care of it.

What I don't particularly care for are people making posts like mikesal57. Just report the post, don't be a self-appointed moderator.

[Bennie]

CJ - I think he was refering to his very first line saying this is "MY" selection thread not yours but that he couldn't stop others from posting.
I think you guys do a very good job at policing this site and I must say I start reading some posts where someone is testing one of their "systems/selection" picks only to find it hijacked but not one but many others and find myself leaving that post and not following after because you have to go through 3 or 4 pages to get back to the original posters selections for the next day.
This is one of the better sites the internet but it gets a little frustrating sometimes. There are many great minds here and a few negative nellies. Can't have one and not the other I guess.

[cj]

CJ - I think he was refering to his very first line saying this is "MY" selection thread not yours but that he couldn't stop others from posting.
I think you guys do a very good job at policing this site and I must say I start reading some posts where someone is testing one of their "systems/selection" picks only to find it hijacked but not one but many others and find myself leaving that post and not following after because you have to go through 3 or 4 pages to get back to the original posters selections for the next day.
This is one of the better sites the internet but it gets a little frustrating sometimes. There are many great minds here and a few negative nellies. Can't have one and not the other I guess.

I see that now, thanks. Hopefully this gets back on track now.

[NorCalGreg]

I see that now, thanks. Hopefully this gets back on track now.

Every time I log onto twitter--there's a list of people twitter suggests I follow, and Craig Milkowski is always the first one. I already follow David A...and TIMEFORM ITSELF! I would be kinda creepy if I followed Craig.

At the risk of sounding desperate..if I follow you, CJ--would you follow me? :D

Anyone? please? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Okay I have ulterior motives--I have a little freebie SEO program that is always telling me I need to improve my "media and social" I hate twitter--don't have a Facebook acct--don't even KNOW what Instagram is________. :eek:

[ReplayRandall]

Okay I have ulterior motives--I have a little freebie SEO program that is always telling me I need to improve my "media and social" I hate twitter--don't have a Facebook acct--don't even KNOW what Instagram is________. :eek:

Anonymity on the internet is a beautiful concept in theory only, but it appears to me that you've already exposed too much of yourself...:blush:...Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[NorCalGreg]

I received an e-mail from a gentleman, a Pace View user who is either a semi-pro player, or at the MINIMUM is very knowledgeable, from our conversation.

He's a board member, some of you may know him--goes by the handle

gedgetips:


NorCal
Please send me your link to the 10.4 version, or whatever version is now
the latest. I have version 10.2.

Your PaceView software has been helpful in my spotting some good paying
horses. I use it in combination with the PP Generator of BRIS and with
other software. My first day in using PaceView was a good profit I would
not have enjoyed without having PaceView. The selections I made that won
were not all PV choices, but PV was helpful in my scoring some exactas I
wouldn't have had otherwise.

However, I am not using PV that much for live wagering just yet, as I am
checking it out and learning more about how I want to use it.

I find your 50 day rule for recency too restrictive, and I don't pay
much attention to your Best Bets, but your two top PV Power horses are
often decent selections. I am also become fond of the top two E-Power
horses. Then I just need to consider some other horses that PV marks as
"N/A." Overall, PV seems to provide pretty good selections compared to
anything else like Prime Power in terms of just its top two picks.

I do hope you can eventually move to the creation of a scratch file so
that scratches will be saved and so a person can also unscratch a horse
that was incorrectly scratched without having to redo the entire card.
When going back over cards to explore different ways of making
selections, it would help the research cause to have the scratches be
saved from before.

Anyway, thanks for creating a good product at a reasonable price.

gedgetips



The reason I included George's letter is because PACE VIEW isn't a stand-alone black box horse-picker. I don't use it as such. Use the spot plays, of course. Take a good look at the EARLY POWER picks---especially the ones with a big gap to the 2nd highest.
The 50 day rule---that will never be changed---but you as a user are free to look over the N/A horses and see just why they didn't get a POWER NUMBER. It's usually the 50 day rule--or they just haven't shown any speed--I got no use for horses with no speed, and no recent activity.

Also George would like to see some changes with the scratch/unscratch and some other things. LOL you didn't think he wouldn't have ANY complaints did you?

Thanks for taking the time to read this..best of luck

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Anonymity on the internet is a beautiful concept in theory only, but it appears to me that you've already exposed too much of yourself...:blush:...Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

So you'll follow me RR? :D

[cj]

Every time I log onto twitter--there's a list of people twitter suggests I follow, and Craig Milkowski is always the first one. I already follow David A...and TIMEFORM ITSELF! I would be kinda creepy if I followed Craig.

At the risk of sounding desperate..if I follow you, CJ--would you follow me? :D

Anyone? please? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Okay I have ulterior motives--I have a little freebie SEO program that is always telling me I need to improve my "media and social" I hate twitter--don't have a Facebook acct--don't even KNOW what Instagram is________. :eek:

What is your handle? I'm not a follow snob or anything.

[NorCalGreg]

What is your handle? I'm not a follow snob or anything.


Believe it or not....some scalywag low-life (okay I don't know who he is) already has "NorCalGreg" so had to suffer the humiliation of being

"NoCalGreg@twitter I'll follow you right now CJ

I once sent a tweet to Janelle Monae complimenting her on her version of David Bowie's "We could be Heroes"......told her I wasn't really in her demographic but really liked the song anyway---you know she NEVER answered!

[Pensacola Pete]

Results:
---
DEL-01 # 6 FATHER DENNIS W 6.60
DEL-02 # 6 DESPICABLE T *scratched*
DEL-03 #11 AFLEET'S DIVIDEND S
DEL-04 # 7 DANCING TINKERBELL x
DEL-05 #10 JIRAVIT *scratched*
DEL-06 # 7 QUARTET P
DEL-08 # 1 RACETRACK ROMANCE x
---
FLX-01 # 4 WISEMAN'S FATE x
FLX-02 # 4 FAKEITTILUMAKEIT x
FLX-03 # 1 KINER'S KORNER S
FLX-05 # 3 NAIL IT x
FLX-06 # 5 OWNER GENTLEMAN x
FLX-07 # 4 WONDERMENT x
FLX-08 # 8 NO DOWNSIDE x
---
LAD-01 # 1 DANCE CALLER x
LAD-02 # 4 THRIFT SHOP W 5.00
LAD-04 # 6 MADAM DANCE x
LAD-05 # 8 LASS CHANNEL W 10.40
LAD-06 # 1 CANADIAN MAXIMUS P
---
LRL-02 # 4 MISS MODELA S
LRL-03 # 1 HURRICANE HAROLD *scratched*
LRL-05 #10 DAFTAR x
---
MNR-04 # 3 CARDIAC REHAB W 6.40
MNR-05 # 5 CARSON'S TEN W 6.20
MNR-06 # 5 JUST EM x
MNR-07 # 2 SPECTACULAR LADY x
MNR-08 # 5 ABI ALBON S
MNR-09 # 4 PURE LUXURY x
---
PEN-01 # 1 IGNOTUS W 5.00
PEN-02 # 1 JUSTCALLME KL W 6.60
PEN-03 # 3 OLYMPIC DIAMOND x
PEN-06 # 7 CALCULATION x
PEN-08 # 8 ENDLESS RIDE W 6.20
---
PRX-02 #10 MIDNIGHT IN OCALA *scratched*
PRX-03 # 1 STRONGBAKSTEELTOES S
PRX-04 # 9 PURRIN' PROUD P
PRX-05 # 1 RADIO ACTIVE x
PRX-06 #1A WILDCATPLEASURES *scratched*
PRX-07 # 4 DISCO CHICK *scratched*
PRX-10 # 7 YOUARETRUE P
---
WOX-05 # 1 HAPPY IS LUCKY W 16.90
WOX-06 # 2 FIRST GIRL W 3.30
WOX-07 # 7 SPLASHY GIRL x
WOX-08 # 4 PUNTROOSKIE W 18.10
WOX-09 # 1 DANGER BAY W 3.60
WOX-10 # 2 DOLLY DAGGER x
---
Plays: 40
Won: 12 (30%)
Bet: $80.00
Collected: 89.30
Profit: 9.30 (ROI: 1.11)

To date:

Races: 57
Win: 15 (26.3%)
Second: 9 (total with win)
Third: 8 (ITM: 56.1% ITM)
Bet: $114
Collected: $122.90
Net win: 8.90 (ROI: 1.07)

Tomorrows plays up later.

[formula_2002]

nice job :cool:

[ReplayRandall]

Results:
---
DEL-01 # 6 FATHER DENNIS W 6.60
DEL-02 # 6 DESPICABLE T *scratched*
DEL-03 #11 AFLEET'S DIVIDEND S
DEL-04 # 7 DANCING TINKERBELL x
DEL-05 #10 JIRAVIT *scratched*
DEL-06 # 7 QUARTET P
DEL-08 # 1 RACETRACK ROMANCE x
---
FLX-01 # 4 WISEMAN'S FATE x
FLX-02 # 4 FAKEITTILUMAKEIT x
FLX-03 # 1 KINER'S KORNER S
FLX-05 # 3 NAIL IT x
FLX-06 # 5 OWNER GENTLEMAN x
FLX-07 # 4 WONDERMENT x
FLX-08 # 8 NO DOWNSIDE x
---
LAD-01 # 1 DANCE CALLER x
LAD-02 # 4 THRIFT SHOP W 5.00
LAD-04 # 6 MADAM DANCE x
LAD-05 # 8 LASS CHANNEL W 10.40
LAD-06 # 1 CANADIAN MAXIMUS P
---
LRL-02 # 4 MISS MODELA S
LRL-03 # 1 HURRICANE HAROLD *scratched*
LRL-05 #10 DAFTAR x
---
MNR-04 # 3 CARDIAC REHAB W 6.40
MNR-05 # 5 CARSON'S TEN W 6.20
MNR-06 # 5 JUST EM x
MNR-07 # 2 SPECTACULAR LADY x
MNR-08 # 5 ABI ALBON S
MNR-09 # 4 PURE LUXURY x
---
PEN-01 # 1 IGNOTUS W 5.00
PEN-02 # 1 JUSTCALLME KL W 6.60
PEN-03 # 3 OLYMPIC DIAMOND x
PEN-06 # 7 CALCULATION x
PEN-08 # 8 ENDLESS RIDE W 6.20
---
PRX-02 #10 MIDNIGHT IN OCALA *scratched*
PRX-03 # 1 STRONGBAKSTEELTOES S
PRX-04 # 9 PURRIN' PROUD P
PRX-05 # 1 RADIO ACTIVE x
PRX-06 #1A WILDCATPLEASURES *scratched*
PRX-07 # 4 DISCO CHICK *scratched*
PRX-10 # 7 YOUARETRUE P
---
WOX-05 # 1 HAPPY IS LUCKY W 16.90
WOX-06 # 2 FIRST GIRL W 3.30
WOX-07 # 7 SPLASHY GIRL x
WOX-08 # 4 PUNTROOSKIE W 18.10
WOX-09 # 1 DANGER BAY W 3.60
WOX-10 # 2 DOLLY DAGGER x
---
Plays: 40
Won: 12 (30%)
Bet: $80.00
Collected: 89.30
Profit: 9.30 (ROI: 1.11)

To date:

Races: 57
Win: 15 (26.3%)
Second: 9 (total with win)
Third: 8 (ITM: 56.1% ITM)
Bet: $114
Collected: $122.90
Net win: 8.90 (ROI: 1.07)

Tomorrows plays up later.

Total collected today was $94.30.....You just won $5 more.

[Pensacola Pete]

Sunday's plays:

---
LRL-01 # 1 YOUNG DUDE
LRL-02 # 6 SABBIADORO
LRL-03 # 2 HEIKO
LRL-08 # 6 LA NINA
LRL-09 # 9 ELUSIVE SPEED
---
MNR-01 #1A LILLY'S FOR WHO
MNR-04 # 1 LUNA LOVER
MNR-05 # 2 STUNTS
MNR-06 # 2 DUKE OF CHADWICK
MNR-09 #10 EYE TO THRILL
----
PRX-01 # 5 A PRINCESS SHE IS
PRX-03 # 2 TIZTHEFASTLAINE
PRX-05 # 6 ZENSATIONAL MERRY
PRX-06 # 6 ROLLER BABE
PRX-08 # 2 BROAD LOVER
PRX-09 # 9 COCHITA RICH
---
WOX-02 # 1 A. A. GRENADE
WOX-04 # 4 VIRTUELLE
WOX-05 # 7 FOR U RUTH
WOX-06 # 2 RINCE TAPAIGH
WOX-07 # 2 AMERITIME
WOX-08 # 2 KAIGUN
WOX-10 # 4 REIMAGINED
---


Please report errors or a missing track.

[Pensacola Pete]

Total collected today was $94.30.....You just won $5 more.


You're right. I must have missed one of the $5.00 mutuels when I totaled them. Number of winners is correct. Thanks.

Updated totals:

Plays: 40
Won: 12 (30%)
Bet: $80.00
Collected: 94.30
Profit: 14.30 (ROI: 1.17)

To date:

Races: 57
Win: 15 (26.3%)
Second: 9
Third: 8 (ITM: 56.1% ITM)
Bet: $114
Collected: $127.90
Net win: 13.90 (ROI: 1.12)

[NorCalGreg]

nice job :cool:


Was looking at your new site! sweet---was gonna ask if you wanted to swap links until....well......the Trump thing. It just wouldn't work, but other than that, cool site.

[Pensacola Pete]

Correction to plays today:

PRX-01 # 5 A PRINCESS SHE IS
PRX-03 # 2 TIZTHEFASTLAINE
PRX-05 # 8 SUNSHINE HEART <<<--- corrected horse
PRX-06 # 8 ROLLER BABE <<<-- corrected program number
PRX-08 # 1 BROAD LOVER <<--- corrected program number
PRX-09 # 9 COCHITA RICH

The original selections listed #6, Zensational Mary as the selection the 5th race. Zensational Mary won but was ranked second. The correct selection was #8, Sunshine Heart, which finished second. So Pace View did not have the winner in that race by the criteria set. In the 6th race, the horse Roller Blade is correct, but the betting number is #8 and not #6. It also ran second. The horse in the 8th race, Broad Lover, had the post position listed instead of the betting number (the entry of #1). It ran third.

Full results at the end of Mountaineer.

[formula_2002]

PP, I notice many of your plays are long shots and some favorites.

An alternate perspective to flat odds results review, which you may be aware, is to sum a proportional odds play on your picks (odds based on final tote board odds).
I find the review helpful, and sometimes encouraging :)

[Pensacola Pete]

Sunday results:

---
LRL-01 # 1 YOUNG DUDE P
LRL-02 # 6 SABBIADORO W 5.60
LRL-03 # 2 HEIKO W 6.40
LRL-08 # 6 LA NINA x
LRL-09 # 9 ELUSIVE SPEED S
---
MNR-01 #1A LILLY'S FOR WHO ***scratched***
MNR-04 # 1 LUNA LOVER W 3.60
MNR-05 # 2 STUNTS x
MNR-06 # 2 DUKE OF CHADWICK x
MNR-09 #10 EYE TO THRILL
----
PRX-01 # 5 A PRINCESS SHE IS x
PRX-03 # 2 TIZTHEFASTLAINE x
PRX-05 # 8 SUNSHINE HEART P
PRX-06 # 8 ROLLER BABE x
PRX-08 # 1 BROAD LOVER S
PRX-09 # 9 COCHITA RICH x
---
WOX-02 # 1 A. A. GRENADE W 6.40
WOX-04 # 4 VIRTUELLE P
WOX-05 # 7 FOR U RUTH x
WOX-06 # 2 RINCE TAPAIGH P
WOX-07 # 2 AMERITIME S
WOX-08 # 2 KAIGUN x
WOX-10 # 4 REIMAGINED 5.80
---

Plays: 22
Wins: 5 (22%)
2nd: 4
3rd: 3 (ITM: 54.5%)
Bet: 44.00
Collect: 27.80
Loss: 16.20

For the three days:

Races: 79
Win: 20 (25.3%)
Second: 13
Third: 11 (ITM: 55.6% ITM)
Bet: $158.00
Collected: $157.70
Net loss: 0.30 (ROI: 0.99)

Monday's plays up later.

[jpjpicks]

2 Pace Veiw user has any of you do a study if the program is better in sprints races then 2 turn races so lets say 5.5-6.0-6.5-7.0 with PV POWER RATING of +10 pts yes you will have less picks but you may have a better ROI an WIN%
just asking all

[Pensacola Pete]

Plays for Monday. Please report any errors:
---
DEL-01 # 1 STRONG SHAFT
DEL-03 # 1 THE IRON BANK
DEL-04 # 4 BETAMERICA
DEL-05 # 8 R QUICK TEMPER
DEL 06 # 8 SQUASHVILLE
DEL-07 #10 ROYAL SOURCE
---
FLX-01 # 6 QUEEN OF HEAT
FLX-02 # 6 BROKERS PRIZE
FLX-03 # 5 MY WILD GATA
FLX-04 # 6 AGAINSOME
FLX-06 # 5 CHROMARK
---
MNR-03 # 4 JACK'S DIXIE DIVA
MNR-04 # 1 INTIMIDATING LADY
MNR-05 # 4 AWESOME PAPA AL
MNR-06 # 1 MAYBE LILY
MNR-08 # 6 IMPROVISED BRUSH
MNR-09 # 8 PASSION TRAIL
---
PRX-02 # 7 TOASTEDMARSHMALLOW
PRX-06 # 4 RAVELO'S BOY
PRX-07 # 1 MACHU PICCHU SKY
PRX-08 # 6 HE'S GOT TALENT
PRX-09 # 8 NABADAAT
----

If here are no scratches, this will bring the four days to 101 plays. If scratches bring it below 100, it's still close enough, since well over 100 were chosen before scratches for the four days.

[timtam]

Parx cancelled Monday's card due to the heat ( or maybe the Democratic

Convention starting there :(

[NorCalGreg]

Parx cancelled Monday's card due to the heat ( or maybe the Democratic

Convention starting there :(


Thistledown has a couple nice looking plays, if you're looking for an alternate.

[NorCalGreg]

2 Pace Veiw user has any of you do a study if the program is better in sprints races then 2 turn races so lets say 5.5-6.0-6.5-7.0 with PV POWER RATING of +10 pts yes you will have less picks but you may have a better ROI an WIN%
just asking all


We have a gentleman looking into some of that, Jimmy. I certainly don't mind less plays with a higher ROI :ThmbUp:

Most customers want ACTION...so there's a fine line between action and ROI.

We don't want to just watch the races...we want to bet 'em.

We also don't want to lose---we want to WIN!!

Still...I've never had ANYONE YET tell me the program wasn't what they expected, and they would like a refund, please.

I had a scammer download as many copies as he could in 1 minute (3)--then immediately demand a refund. He was told to get lost--which he promptly did.

[jpjpicks]

hey greg i love your work an what you are doing i was just asking b,cause some programs work better in sprints then 2-turn races also some players like to bet a few plays daily not a shit load but then again some players need all the action they can get the reason is players all want high ROI but then want to bet every race (not going to happen) thats like if you look at bris's top-3 in claiming races he always has 1 or 2 horses in the money 90% of the time what it all come down to is see where the program is better at maybe sprint claiming or sprint alw any program can pick but to find out where it is strong that goes for handicappers to some may suck in 2-turn races but then are real good in sprints ...
ps: keep up the great work NCG
Your friend weed happy jimmy

[Pensacola Pete]

Philadelphia canceled today. I'm staying with the original track list. Since there now won't be 100 plays, I'll continue the test one more day and use the tracks on the list that run on Tuesday, with the same two spot play criteria.

[Pensacola Pete]

DEL-01 # 1 STRONG SHAFT P
DEL-03 # 1 THE IRON BANK P
DEL-04 # 4 BETAMERICA BABE S
DEL-05 # 8 R QUICK TEMPER x
DEL 06 # 8 SQUASHVILLE W 4.00
DEL-07 #10 ROYAL SOURCE P
---
FLX-01 # 6 QUEEN OF HEAT S
FLX-02 # 6 BROKERS PRIZE W 15.00
FLX-03 # 5 MY WILD GATA x
FLX-04 # 6 AGAINSOME S
FLX-06 # 5 CHROMARK ***scratched***
---
MNR-03 # 4 JACK'S DIXIE DIVA P
MNR-04 # 2 INTIMIDATING LADY x (corrected program number)
MNR-05 # 4 AWESOME PAPA AL x
MNR-06 # 1 MAYBE LILY P
MNR-08 # 6 IMPROVISED BRUSH W 6.40
MNR-09 # 9 PASSION TRAIL S (corrected program number)
---
Plays: 16
Win: 3 (18%)
2nd: 5
3rd: 4 (ITM: 75%)
Bet: 32.00
Collected: 25.40
Net loss: 6.60 (ROI: 0.79)

For the 4 days:
Races: 95
Win: 20 (25.3%)
Second: 18
Third: 15 (ITM: 55.6% ITM)
Bet: $190.00
Collected: $183.10
Net loss: 6.90 (ROI: 0.96)
------------

Tuesday's plays up shortly.

[Pensacola Pete]

Plays for Tuesday. Please report all errors or omissions:
------------
FLX-01 #4 READ THE TECHNIQUE
FLX-02 #2 APPIAN
FLX-03 #6 DIAMOND SHOWCASE
FLX-04 #4 GOOD LAUGH
FLX-06 #7 MAKING HISTORY
FLX-07 #6 CAN'T CATCH THIS
FLX-08 #3 ABOUNDING SPIRIT
FLX-09 #2 GREEN DIAMOND CAT
----
MNR-03 #2 WARRIOR SONG
MNR-04 #8 DIVINE REASON
MNR-05 #6 ILOBADIXIECHICK
MNR-06 #5 ADDED SPICE
MNR-07 #2 DENALI HOLY BULL
MNR-08 #1 IDEAL PLACE
----
PRX-03 #6 PIN AND WIN
PRX-04 #10 DEFER HEAVEN
PRX-06 #7 PIECE OF EIGHT
PRX-07 #5 FLATTER ME ZANJA
PRX-08 #1 FOUR INCH HEELS
PRX-09 #6 QUALITY TIME
-----

This will bring the number of plays over 100. Win or lose it will be done after tomorrow, as long as at least 5 of the above start.

[Pensacola Pete]

I want to go off-topic for a minute to illustrate a point that I'll dwell on later when today's results are tabulated and combined with the other four days.

The case in point is today's Finger Lakes race 3, and it's obviously red boarded.

Looking at only the PV power rating, #6 is best, and in fact it was one of the plays made today by the spot play criteria. This is one of the drawbacks of figure playing on a standalone basis, without analysis. From the outside post, and with the second worst early speed, #6 Diamond Showcase figures to be last at the first call. This might be okay if there was a lot of early speed in the race, AND the horse was generous odds (6-1 or higher). Neither is true today. Horses coming from the back of the pack often get a piece of the pie, but they make very poor win bets in my experience.

Looking at the race's output, #1 has the second best Early Power and also the second best Late Power. These are the "early" and "late" figures that I use in Pace View; the E1 and E2 figures don't seem to do nearly as well. Note #3, #4, and #5, the horses in the black box. #1 has better Early AND Late Power than any of them. That makes them throwouts for me: how is a horse who is behind another horse at a point of call AND who doesn't finish as well as that horse going to get past? They figure to be behind #1 for the entire race. This leaves #5 and #6 as #1's competitors.

#5 has a decent lead in Early Power, but it also has horrible Late Power. Such a horse may get out to a nice uncontested lead, and horses like that often win at big odds. Unfortunately, #5 is a paltry 5-2 odds (2.9-1). Adding to its problems is needing to break from 5 deep into a short run into the first turn. Meanwhile, #1 figures to glide along the rail into a nice stalking position in second. Nearing the far turn, #1 will make its move. At this point #6 has two choices: start a long sustained run from last or wait until later and make one quick run. If the first is chosen, #6 will need to use up a lot of energy and may not have much left for the stretch. If the latter is chosen, #1 will have long-since taken first run, will probably cruise into the lead without a lot of effort, and will probably be too far ahead of #6 to be caught.

#1 has all the best of it here; a good post and a balanced pace style that gives it the advantage over a probable quitter (5) in front, three horses (2, 3, and 4) who will be behind it and can't out finish it, and a horse that will probably be coming from last (6) and which doesn't have a strong enough edge late to catch it.

In the actual race, #1 got out to the lead, took the first six furlongs as though it were a walk in the park and, like all examples taken after the race is over do, drew away in the stretch. #6 rode the rail, made a sustained move from early in the far turn while never needing to go wider than a path off of the inside horses, and managed to get second. #5 never saw the lead and folded its tent early. #'s 2, 3, and 4 were never a threat. #1 got off at 7/2 and paid $9.80 to win. While I won't say it was an outstanding overlay, it was generous, given its situation. Unbelievably,#3 was a 3/2 choice. It did manage to get third. It would be nice if they all worked that way, but we know better. The point is that using figures blindly isn't the way to go. By using a bit of common sense, some decent plays can be had. Unfortunately, listing Lucky Ned as one of them wouldn't have been within the guidelines I set down in the test run.

Back later when Mountaineer's results are in.

[Pensacola Pete]

Results for Tuesday:
------------
FLX-01 #4 READ THE TECHNIQUE W 4.90
FLX-02 #2 APPIAN S
FLX-03 #6 DIAMOND SHOWCASE P
FLX-04 #4 GOOD LAUGH W 4.70
FLX-06 #7 MAKING HISTORY W 3.90
FLX-07 #6 CAN'T CATCH THIS x
FLX-08 #3 ABOUNDING SPIRIT S
FLX-09 #2 GREEN DIAMOND CAT W 3.00
----
MNR-03 #2 WARRIOR SONG P
MNR-04 #8 DIVINE REASON x
MNR-05 #6 ILOBADIXIECHICK x
MNR-06 #5 ADDED SPICE P
MNR-07 #2 DENALI HOLY BULL P
MNR-08 #1 IDEAL PLACE x
----
PRX-03 #6 PIN AND WIN P
PRX-04 #10 DEFER HEAVEN W 4.00
PRX-06 #7 PIECE OF EIGHT P
PRX-07 #5 FLATTER ME ZANJA P
PRX-08 #1 FOUR INCH HEELS W 3.40
PRX-09 #6 QUALITY TIME ***scratched***
-----
Plays: 19
Won: 6 (31.5%)
2nd: 7
3rd: 2 (ITM: 78.9%)
Bet: $38.00
Collect: 23.90
Net loss: 14.10 (ROI: 0.62)
--
For the 5-day test run:
Races: 114
Win: 26 (21.0%)
Second: 25
Third: 17 (ITM:59.6%)
Bet: $228.00
Collected: $207.00
Net loss: 21.00 (ROI: 0.907)
---
By contrast, here is how HTR's flagship rating of "K" did for the same tracks and days, after scratches were made:

K=1 K110+ plays=63 wins=17 (26.9%) ROI=0.722
K=1 MLO>=5 plays=16 wins=2 (12.5%) ROI=0.316

So it was a tough sled during those five days at those tracks for more than Pace View.

I'll be back to wrap things up shortly.

[Pensacola Pete]

What just concluded was a 100+ play test run, per somebody's challenge. Two spot plays were used. These two were deliberately on the opposite ends of the spectrum: The first was designed to choose low-priced logical horses, and the second attempted to find logical horses that might be a decent price. All plays were made the day before the races, meaning that scratches weren't known. Late scratches may have made some of the plays useless (for example, if several low-morning-line-odds horses were scratched, the value spot play would be negated), and late scratches may have also turned up spot plays that didn't exist when all horses were in the field. in addition, all plays were made regardless of post time odds, including some woeful odds-on horses that would have never been played with real money.

I didn't tell Greg any of the following, nor did he even know I was going to do a test run before I posted it here.

Of the six spot plays I've developed from the 10 I researched, I used #4 and #5 for this test run. I'm not about to give out the best ones. The more people who have them, the less they'll pay. If you think a handful of players won't drive down mutuels, ask Craig "CJ" how much the ROI of his Pace Figures program went down from the time he had it to himself to the time when he had 100 eager customers, many of whom probably bet heathily. Or have a look at the MSPOT and TSPOT plays from HTR back before they existed in the program (previous years). Each dropped about 15 points in ROI once people got their hands on them: from profitable to in the 0.90 range. Or ask Jeff Platt how far his JCapper (original) rating dropped in ROI before he limited it to program holders from a certain time period.

The eight tracks that I used were middle-of-the-road. They weren't my top go-to tracks for this program, nor did they include abysmal tracks such as GP, ASD, the Ohio circuit, the Kentucky circuit, or some of the bush tracks. I don't want people to key in on the tracks that I play. I'm selfish like that.

So we had my 4th and 5th best spot plays out of the 10 I researched and 6 that I use (the other 4 plays simply don't work), at the roughly 5th through 10th best circuits, they were played before scratches were known, and they were played without regards to odds.

With all of those limitations, the program still managed to choose 21% winners, nearly 45% to place, and nearly 60% to show with a mix of low-price and higher-price selections, and it managed an ROI of almost 91% on the dollar, or about 8% better than the takeout.

The program works well, especially for $35. If you do the research, you can find both the spot plays I use --- all are taken exclusively from the program's output screen --- and the tracks that they work on. But you have to do the work yourself; I'm not going to feed them to you.

---

Now that a 100 play test-run exists, I invite every detractor to post a 100-play sample with their program under the same conditions that I just did.
----

One other thing: My top three spot plays, played at the four main tracks that I didn't use for the test run, didn't fare a lot better for the five days. They hit about 27% winners with an ROI of 0.96. As I said, it was probably a tough five days for most.

[Pensacola Pete]

I'll be doing another test run in the near future, when I decide exactly how I'm going to construct it.

[formula_2002]

I'll be doing another test run in the near future, when I decide exactly how I'm going to construct it.

let me know when. I would like to compare my $1 exacta returns with your $1 win returns. you pick the track and race number. I'll try to keep up with my live post. I can keep my posts separate from your thread.
It will be Pace View vs Formula's exactamatrix

keeps me off the street :)