Travis Stone doing ML at Saratoga

[oddsmaven]

As soon as I started handicapping the SPA opening day card and then looked at the line, I knew immediately that it couldn't be Eric Donovan.

Did a search - and found that Travis Stone will do the lines for the meet.

Probably means that doubles will have better value than usual with enough people using the line as a guide. I've seen worse ML's at other tracks but they've been very accurate for years at the NYRA tracks and that won't be the case in the weeks ahead.

[the little guy]

As soon as I started handicapping the SPA opening day card and then looked at the line, I knew immediately that it couldn't be Eric Donovan.

Did a search - and found that Travis Stone will do the lines for the meet.

Probably means that doubles will have better value than usual with enough people using the line as a guide. I've seen worse ML's at other tracks but they've been very accurate for years at the NYRA tracks and that won't be the case in the weeks ahead.


Really, dude, was this necessary?

[1st time lasix]

yeah ...I thought the post was rather classless. If you don't agree with his morning line fine...but they haven't opened the gates on the first race yet. :rolleyes:

[Peter Berry]

Travis is a total professional. I'm sure he'll strive to be the best morning-line maker in the country. I wouldn't bet against him.

[Tall One]

Believe Travis mentioned last week on the Twitter it was either this gig..or Bocce Ball...lol

I think he'll do just fine...:ThmbUp:

[the little guy]

The funniest thing about the initial post is that, especially over the past year, there have been many days when Eric did not even do the line, yet this specific day the OP could tell right away it wasn't him!

I'm calling BS and an indefensibly nasty initial post. As someone that knows Travis well, I will be shocked if he doesn't do a solid job. I'm sure he would be the first to acknowledge he has some very big shoes to fill. I'm quite confident he will get there.

[thaskalos]

With a name like "Oddsmaven"...is it any wonder that the original poster here is difficult to satisfy in this aspect of the game?

[oddsmaven]

The funniest thing about the initial post is that, especially over the past year, there have been many days when Eric did not even do the line, yet this specific day the OP could tell right away it wasn't him!

I'm calling BS and an indefensibly nasty initial post. As someone that knows Travis well, I will be shocked if he doesn't do a solid job. I'm sure he would be the first to acknowledge he has some very big shoes to fill. I'm quite confident he will get there.

I'll take the rebukes to heart that I worded my post classlessly.

I don't get The Form every day and I thought some lines at Belmont seemed not to be done by the usual guy recently and with the first race at Saratoga it struck me that it couldn't be Eric. I know little of Travis & have no ax to grind - I owe him an apology for wording it in a disparaging way...he obviously is very well liked and I assume, deservedly so.

[the little guy]

I'll take the rebukes to heart that I worded my post classlessly.

I don't get The Form every day and I thought some lines at Belmont seemed not to be done by the usual guy recently and with the first race at Saratoga it struck me that it couldn't be Eric. I know little of Travis & have no ax to grind - I owe him an apology for wording it in a disparaging way...he obviously is very well liked and I assume, deservedly so.

That was nice of you to post.

Good luck this meet.

[johnhannibalsmith]

That was nice of you to post.

Good luck this meet.

Agreed. Nice to see an acknowledgment of this sort. And I have to add - as Andy alluded to, it's pretty astounding how Travis has moved through the industry from where he started. I won't embarrass him with my recollections of his first online race calls when he was a real young pup, but suffice it to say, I too have seen a guy that turns ambition into success like few others.

[EMD4ME]

If Travis' ML work will mimic his race calling, he will be the best ML odds maker in the country. Love his calls. Sure his ML work will be great as well.

[lamboguy]

those morning lines look real good to me, congratulations to Travis for doing a great job again.

[thespaah]

If Travis' ML work will mimic his race calling, he will be the best ML odds maker in the country. Love his calls. Sure his ML work will be great as well.
I agree.
BTW, Travis is an upstate NY Native.
Lake Luzerne I believe.
Or somewhere in the Saratoga/ Glens Falls area.

[EMD4ME]

I agree.
BTW, Travis is an upstate NY Native.
Lake Luzerne I believe.
Or somewhere in the Saratoga/ Glens Falls area.

Good for him. I hope 1 day he calls the SPA full time. :ThmbUp:

[castaway01]

Travis has a lot of talent and has done quite well for himself considering he's barely into his 30s. I'm sure he'll do fine with the ML gig.

[thespaah]

Good for him. I hope 1 day he calls the SPA full time. :ThmbUp:
I like his race calling. I think he's very good at his trade.
On Derby Day, I decided to hit the mute button on the TV and watch the CD feed on my computer to hear Travis' call of the KY Derby. In my opinion he did an excellent job.

[EMD4ME]

I like his race calling. I think he's very good at his trade.
On Derby Day, I decided to hit the mute button on the TV and watch the CD feed on my computer to hear Travis' call of the KY Derby. In my opinion he did an excellent job.

I used to adore the inner track. Now, Travis Stone and John Imbriale are the only good things about the inner track (and something to do on most Sat and Sun in the winter months-when they don't cancel for 3 MPH winds).

[ronsmac]

This isn't the first time I've seen someone here complain about the morning line but it's the first time I've seen this many people so sensitive and defensive about it.

[horses4courses]

I'm giving him a thumbs up straight off the bat
for the accuracy in his line vig percentages. :ThmbUp:

I did a quick calculation on two races
and the came up 123%, and 125%.
That's just fine in my book.

For me, the Mendoza Line is 130%.
Line setters have no business going above that,
when you consider takeout on win bets is under 20%.
I have a feeling Travis Stone will do just fine at this,

There are other major tracks who should take note.

[arw629]

Ml making is a thankless job but I wish Travis the best...race 2 Friday was the only race that I feel there might be a major discrepancy... :5: Messer Misfit has to be double digit odds imo...brisnet has the trainer 0 for 21 with 2yo's, 0 for 11 first time starters, and 0 for 5 deb msw....the filly was purchased for a measly 2.7k and Drosselymyer offsprings dont exactly scream 5.5 furlongs ..if Travis is in the ballpark with 9-2 on this one he will have nothing to prove to anyone ...also...no way the entry is anywhere near 12-1...30-1 at least!

[SG4]

Ml making is a thankless job but I wish Travis the best...race 2 Friday was the only race that I feel there might be a major discrepancy... :5: Messer Misfit has to be double digit odds imo...brisnet has the trainer 0 for 21 with 2yo's, 0 for 11 first time starters, and 0 for 5 deb msw....the filly was purchased for a measly 2.7k and Drosselymyer offsprings dont exactly scream 5.5 furlongs ..if Travis is in the ballpark with 9-2 on this one he will have nothing to prove to anyone ...also...no way the entry is anywhere near 12-1...30-1 at least!

Like most cards, I also saw some ML's on the Saratoga opening card which I was dubious of, but overall it looks like a pretty fine job. Of all the odds to nitpick at though, I think the above example is one of the most difficult & it will be curious to see how this race is bet.

Problem #1 is DRF vs Brisnet info apparently on the trainer of Messer Misfit. My DRF PP's have the trainer at a whopping 30% with FTS (sample size of 20), a far cry from the 0 for 11 in brisnet, although I do see him winless with 2yo's as well. Far as I'm concerned, there is a lot about this horse which intrigues & he's one of these classic mid-atlantic 2yo shippers to the Spa which are the hardest for me to get a read on over the years, would pay particular attention to the tote action on him.

Also the entry contains the only 2 horses in the field with experience, a key element in these races. If you get both for the price of one, might be attractive to a fair amount of people.

All that being said, I think the 2 FTS towards the outside are gonna take a lot of $ and everyone else's odds will be greatly inflated off the ML because of that, but I think it would be irresponsible of a ML maker to put those 2 at say 7-5 & 9-5 cause that's over-speculating based on the info available.

And just in case anyone cares which ML's I was most dubious of if I need to backup my earlier statements, I'm thinking in the 3rd race John Eddie will be the 2nd longest shot in the race & not near his 6-1 ML. 6th race I think La Colonel will go favored (she's 3rd choice on the ML).

Good luck to all!

[oddsmaven]

I actually wrote this post after looking at the opener and the Schuylerville...having already admitted my post to be unfairly harsh, and now after going over the rest of the card, I think the lines are mostly decent.

What I saw so differently was that in the 1st, I made Thirst for Glory the favorite rather than the fourth choice.

In the 8th, seems to me that Made Me Shiver will be stout chalk with no one close; not 5:2 over 3:1 for the rail horse who I have with less play than his 8:1 Lightning Dove.

Maybe the only other race that I see much differently is the 7th where I see Pletcher's as the 2nd or 3rd choice (not 8:1) and Bileaps and Bounds not deserving of 5:2.

It's easy to sit back and nitpick, but I felt I should say in advance what I was referring to...It's a very tough track to do lines...big fields...lots of shippers...I learned a lot reading through that Travis is not only well liked but very respected.

[1st time lasix]

Oddsmaven...thanks for clearing up. Good luck! I am going to look for a longer shot in the 5th on the inner. Using 2, 3, 4 and 6 at end of my pick five.....and start of pick six. I will need some of the others not to fire. Hope springs eternal!

[Redbullsnation]

Travis Stone is one of the best. He'll be fine doing the ML. Hopefully, he'll call a race at the Spa...

[whodoyoulike]

I actually wrote this post after looking at the opener and the Schuylerville...having already admitted my post to be unfairly harsh, and now after going over the rest of the card, I think the lines are mostly decent.

What I saw so differently was that in the 1st, I made Thirst for Glory the favorite rather than the fourth choice.

In the 8th, seems to me that Made Me Shiver will be stout chalk with no one close; not 5:2 over 3:1 for the rail horse who I have with less play than his 8:1 Lightning Dove.

Maybe the only other race that I see much differently is the 7th where I see Pletcher's as the 2nd or 3rd choice (not 8:1) and Bileaps and Bounds not deserving of 5:2.

It's easy to sit back and nitpick, but I felt I should say in advance what I was referring to...It's a very tough track to do lines...big fields...lots of shippers...I learned a lot reading through that Travis is not only well liked but very respected.

Isn't this what one wants to see?

So, I don't see the need to be critical.

How did his m/l turn out versus actual?

[ronsmac]

I did notice he made Songbird 4/5 Sunday. I did a triple take when I saw that.

[ronsmac]

I did notice he made Songbird 4/5 Sunday. I did a triple take when I saw that.He made Flintshire the 1/5 morning line favorite. That's a realistic line. Why he didn't make Songbird 1/5 or 2/5 was a little strange.

[the little guy]

He made Flintshire the 1/5 morning line favorite. That's a realistic line. Why he didn't make Songbird 1/5 or 2/5 was a little strange.


Because he made a mistake. It happens. I made a few today myself. You should try it sometimes. It can be cathartic.

[NTamm1215]

He made Flintshire the 1/5 morning line favorite. That's a realistic line. Why he didn't make Songbird 1/5 or 2/5 was a little strange.

Fortunately (and unsurprisingly) it didn't dissuade the public one iota.

[VigorsTheGrey]

One thing I have noticed over the years at various tracks is that the odds of the favorite when the favorite wins are typically below the odds posted for the morning line favorite...

[cj]

Why do people get hung up on morning lines? I don't get it but maybe somebody can explain. You want to see a bad morning line, check out the Haskell---not that I care.

I see terrible morning lines at smaller tracks all the time and they don't influence the betting one iota.

[ReplayRandall]

Why do people get hung up on morning lines? I don't get it but maybe somebody can explain. You want to see a bad morning line, check out the Haskell---not that I care.

I see terrible morning lines at smaller tracks all the time and they don't influence the betting one iota.

No one can explain it, as we keep coming back to this very truth, over and over again:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1916144&postcount=15

[SG4]

He made Flintshire the 1/5 morning line favorite. That's a realistic line. Why he didn't make Songbird 1/5 or 2/5 was a little strange.

The CCAO was quite hard to figure for just how far apart the odds on the two faves were gonna be. Songbird's got all the backing of an undefeated champion but she was up against it with several factors that made it hard (for me at least) to really view her as superior to Carina Mia in that race. For all the big players that rely on Thorograph, those sheets loved Carina Mia. It all just made the result that much more impressive.

I thought the California Chrome/Dortmund match was gonna have the same betting as the CCAO, was shocked that he actually returned 4/5 there, thought he was more likely to be 1/5 than Songbird.

[SG4]

You want to see a bad morning line, check out the Haskell---not that I care.

I see the ML on this race as just right, care to explain what's so awful? Do you see Nyquist more as a 3-5 shot, make the 2 longest shots 30-1?

[Pigpen]

Why do people get hung up on morning lines? I don't get it but maybe somebody can explain. You want to see a bad morning line, check out the Haskell---not that I care.

I see terrible morning lines at smaller tracks all the time and they don't influence the betting one iota.

On horizontal wagers the ML may influence the public. JMO

[cj]

I see the ML on this race as just right, care to explain what's so awful? Do you see Nyquist more as a 3-5 shot, make the 2 longest shots 30-1?

The total percentages are too high.

[cj]

On horizontal wagers the ML may influence the public. JMO

I think that is a bit of a myth. Sure, maybe people that are betting a few bucks might be lazy and just use the ML, but I don't think any real bettors are using it.

[ronsmac]

Because he made a mistake. It happens. I made a few today myself. You should try it sometimes. It can be cathartic.As you saw in my previous post I did a triple take when she was listed at 4/5. So I did make a ml for the race. Even you wouldn't have made Songbird 4/5 in a 5 horse field with one contender.

[ronsmac]

On horizontal wagers the ML may influence the public. JMO
I agree that they have some influence. Oaklawn Park for sure. Whoever made the ml at Santa Anita in the early 2000s was the best linemaker I've come across. If a horse was icey in the early betting based on his ml, he would be bet down late and usually underperformed.

[v j stauffer]

I agree that they have some influence. Oaklawn Park for sure. Whoever made the ml at Santa Anita in the early 2000s was the best linemaker I've come across. If a horse was icey in the early betting based on his ml, he would be bet down late and usually underperformed.

Jon White has been making the morning line at Santa Anita for many years. Before him it was Jeff Tufts.

Don't know when the switch was made. Both excellent IMO.

[v j stauffer]

Because he made a mistake. It happens. I made a few today myself. You should try it sometimes. It can be cathartic.

If that's true I should be the Pope by now.

[oddsmaven]

I see the ML on this race as just right, care to explain what's so awful? Do you see Nyquist more as a 3-5 shot, make the 2 longest shots 30-1?
I'll chime in as I too noticed that the Haskell line is bad...and to add to CJ's reason, it's ridiculous to have American Freedom with more play than Gun Runner.

I agree with Travis' ml on the Jim Dandy, as I see it close to what he projected.

[cj]

Jon White has been making the morning line at Santa Anita for many years. Before him it was Jeff Tufts.

Don't know when the switch was made. Both excellent IMO.

Jon White's line is often WAY too high percentage wise.

[classhandicapper]

The MLs for important stakes can occasionally be off because the line makers sometimes have to turn it around immediately after the draw. There can be late defections and changes they are unaware of until very late. Not sure if that's the case for the Haskell. I probably would have made Sunny Ridge longer than 20-1, but it's unlikely they would put really long odds on a horse owned by the guy so involved with running the track (Drazin). ;)

[oddsmaven]

The MLs for important stakes can occasionally be off because the line makers sometimes have to turn it around immediately after the draw. There can be late defections and changes they are unaware of until very late. Not sure if that's the case for the Haskell. I probably would have made Sunny Ridge longer than 20-1, but it's unlikely they would put really long odds on a horse owned by the guy so involved with running the track (Drazin). ;)
Class,
I'd add another possibility why the ml odds in big races can more easily be off at times...perhaps because there are a lot more unsophisticated/casual bettors playing those races...and another reason in the Haskell specifically, since Exaggerator has standout "slop race" efforts, he would attract considerable more money, should it end up on an off track. (There's some rain in the forecast.)

[Milleruszk]

I must have missed it.....what happened to Eric? Is he still with NYRA? Thanks.

[ronsmac]

Jon White has been making the morning line at Santa Anita for many years. Before him it was Jeff Tufts.

Don't know when the switch was made. Both excellent IMO.It was Jeff Tufts . Thanks for refreshing my memory.

[Redboard]

I must have missed it.....what happened to Eric? Is he still with NYRA? Thanks.

I would like top know this too. He was my favorite ML guy and I've definitely noticed a difference.

Tom Durkin, Mary Ryan and now Eric Donovan all within a couple of years. Ouch!

[the little guy]

Eric is producing the TV show. There are only so many hours in the day.

There's nothing quite like an internet overreaction.

[PaceAdvantage]

Eric Donovan was probably one of the most respected M/L oddsmakers this board has ever seen. I don't think I've ever read a bad word about Eric's NYRA lines on here. That says something.

Glad to hear he's still with NYRA...I was wondering too...probably should have asked you sooner... :lol:

[arw629]

I think Travis is doing a fine job. He might miss something here or there but not too bad for his first spa meet.

[arw629]

I posted a few weeks ago about how I thought he had a Drosselymyer sprinting at too short of odds but his offspring have done well going short first out actually which is surprising to me ....serling posted a stat on twitter the other day about this and can't remember exactly but something like his offspring are 6 or 7 for 39 first time out??? Those numbers might be off slightly but I might have to change my thoughts on regards to some of these baby races

[Milleruszk]

Eric is producing the TV show. There are only so many hours in the day.




He is doing a great job at his new position. Race Day Live is terrific! Too bad you guys aren't on for the entire card! Kudos to all involved.

[Waquoit]

I think Travis is doing a fine job. He might miss something here or there but not too bad for his first spa meet.

I don't know about that. A linemaker is like an umpire; if you don't notice them, they're doing a good job. I'm noticing something everyday. What about Lady Lara in the last on Saturday? 8-1 morning line, goes off at 3-1 2nd choice and wins pretty easily.

[Turf player]

Doing the M/L is a very thankless job. - It's just a starting point to give you an idea of what the track handicapper feels the wagering public will have on the board at post time.

Not to muddy the waters, how would you like to do all of the baby races with first time starters ? - Very tough row to hoe.

Best of luck, Travis. - Give them your best, and there will be a great starting point. - And if they're still not satisfied. Once the tote bell rings and the betting begins. It is just an after-thought.


Best of luck this meet, and sure would love to hear you at The Spaaaa !

[TravisVOX]

I don't know about that. A linemaker is like an umpire; if you don't notice them, they're doing a good job. I'm noticing something everyday. What about Lady Lara in the last on Saturday? 8-1 morning line, goes off at 3-1 2nd choice and wins pretty easily.

I'm going to end up missing one today too... Mott's 2yo MSW I made 4-1 and I'm told we're looking at something-to-5. I went the wrong direction on the horse, it happens. Lady Lara's was probably too high to begin with but with three scratches in the race (worth 17.2 points on the line, her drop was worth 13) a lot can change.

That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds!

It's been fun though. If anyone is on Twitter, I'm constantly having back/forth conversations with folks about it. There are some awful people in cyberspace, but for the most part the discourse is civil and fun, so if you're on there throughout the day, join in!

[upthecreek]

I don't know if you listen to TVG, but they were beating you up pretty bad on the #12 horse in the last race Friday It was listed @ 12-1 ML and went off 4-1 They were going on and on how bad the line was and how you were never get 12-1 on the horse And by the way, it ran last I believe

[arw629]

I'm going to end up missing one today too... Mott's 2yo MSW I made 4-1 and I'm told we're looking at something-to-5. I went the wrong direction on the horse, it happens. Lady Lara's was probably too high to begin with but with three scratches in the race (worth 17.2 points on the line, her drop was worth 13) a lot can change.

That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds!

It's been fun though. If anyone is on Twitter, I'm constantly having back/forth conversations with folks about it. There are some awful people in cyberspace, but for the most part the discourse is civil and fun, so if you're on there throughout the day, join in!

That 2 yo Mott horse put up a big number in the race at GP but the works stink and this group should be much better...i do agree thr ml price will be closer to even money but I'm thinking a bounce might be in store

[green80]

As was said, the morning line is just the linemaker's prediction of how the public will bet. But at times the public is hard to predict. Sometimes the word gets around that a horse is going to run good today and it skews the line. Racetrack rumors and touts sometime have a lot to do with these unusual odds moves but most of that information is not accurate. This happened a lot more before the days of adw's and computerized betting. Now when the odds on a horse are too far off, late money will come in and correct it somewhat.

[cj]

As was said, the morning line is just the linemaker's prediction of how the public will bet. But at times the public is hard to predict. Sometimes the word gets around that a horse is going to run good today and it skews the line. Racetrack rumors and touts sometime have a lot to do with these unusual odds moves but most of that information is not accurate. This happened a lot more before the days of adw's and computerized betting. Now when the odds on a horse are too far off, late money will come in and correct it somewhat.

This is particularly true at Saratoga. I can't imagine how hard it is to jump in as full time morning line maker for the first time at this meet of all meets.

[reckless]

I don't know about that. A linemaker is like an umpire; if you don't notice them, they're doing a good job. I'm noticing something everyday. What about Lady Lara in the last on Saturday? 8-1 morning line, goes off at 3-1 2nd choice and wins pretty easily.

Would you feel the same if Lady Lara went off at her 3-1 odds yesterday and then ran up the track? And would that affect your opinion at all if you knew that Lady Lara was in foal yesterday? She is.

The good MLO makers just might make it a point to ignore any and all racetrack info and gossip. Just sayin'.

[EMD4ME]

I'm going to end up missing one today too... Mott's 2yo MSW I made 4-1 and I'm told we're looking at something-to-5. I went the wrong direction on the horse, it happens. Lady Lara's was probably too high to begin with but with three scratches in the race (worth 17.2 points on the line, her drop was worth 13) a lot can change.

That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds!

It's been fun though. If anyone is on Twitter, I'm constantly having back/forth conversations with folks about it. There are some awful people in cyberspace, but for the most part the discourse is civil and fun, so if you're on there throughout the day, join in!

It shows a LOT OF CLASS for you to come on here and post Travis.

You are doing a Blanken great job and you know I am not a brown noser.

Keep up the GREAT job and have fun doing it. You are an ASSET!

[lamboguy]

I'm going to end up missing one today too... Mott's 2yo MSW I made 4-1 and I'm told we're looking at something-to-5. I went the wrong direction on the horse, it happens. Lady Lara's was probably too high to begin with but with three scratches in the race (worth 17.2 points on the line, her drop was worth 13) a lot can change.

That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds!

It's been fun though. If anyone is on Twitter, I'm constantly having back/forth conversations with folks about it. There are some awful people in cyberspace, but for the most part the discourse is civil and fun, so if you're on there throughout the day, join in!you made a great line on Motts horse today, Pletcher is going to be less than even money to the race.

[TravisVOX]

you made a great line on Motts horse today, Pletcher is going to be less than even money to the race.

Interestingly, that's what I've heard today too. We'll see.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I'm going to end up missing one today too... Mott's 2yo MSW I made 4-1 and I'm told we're looking at something-to-5. I went the wrong direction on the horse, it happens. Lady Lara's was probably too high to begin with but with three scratches in the race (worth 17.2 points on the line, her drop was worth 13) a lot can change.

That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds!

It's been fun though. If anyone is on Twitter, I'm constantly having back/forth conversations with folks about it. There are some awful people in cyberspace, but for the most part the discourse is civil and fun, so if you're on there throughout the day, join in!

You're a class act. I hope your career continues to go well.

[Cice]

I'm going to end up missing one today too... Mott's 2yo MSW I made 4-1 and I'm told we're looking at something-to-5. I went the wrong direction on the horse, it happens. Lady Lara's was probably too high to begin with but with three scratches in the race (worth 17.2 points on the line, her drop was worth 13) a lot can change.

That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds!

It's been fun though. If anyone is on Twitter, I'm constantly having back/forth conversations with folks about it. There are some awful people in cyberspace, but for the most part the discourse is civil and fun, so if you're on there throughout the day, join in!

Hey Travis, I was with you and Nick Tammaro on the original NY boards. So proud of what you guys are doing, keep up the good work, all your past hard work is coming to fruition!

[EMD4ME]

Travis,

You did a good job with the ML. 4 is the FAV as you thought.

9 is NOT something to 5....

EMD4ME

P.S. was bet to 9/5 after my post (from 5/2)

[EMD4ME]

And for gravy and justification, the 4 wins! Way to go Travis!

[whodoyoulike]

... That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds! ...

I never understood the complaints but, I do appreciate your above comment even though it's after which is just fine with me. It's nice to see some reasons why you did what you did. And, I realize it may lose some value if done every day but I can see some value and interest to me in how one analyzes or viewed the race before it happens given the info available at the time. Which is one reason I enjoy encouraging people to discuss how they would bet a race. Everyone has their opinion and it's interesting to compare.

[lamboguy]

you made a great line on Motts horse today, Pletcher is going to be less than even money to the race.obviously i don't know anything either. i thought the Pletcher horse was going to be 3/5, the race that AMAPOLA came out of in Gulfstream was on the weak side yet the horse did run lights out today.

this game does have a way of making of fool out of you!

[Wickel]

Jon White has been making the morning line at Santa Anita for many years. Before him it was Jeff Tufts.

Don't know when the switch was made. Both excellent IMO.

I thought Russell Hudak was the morning line guy for the Cal circuit. Is he still around?

[Robes]

Really, dude, was this necessary?

Bush league tracks where the hot dog sellers usually double as morning line makers have better morning lines than SAR Travis should stick to race calling

https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,103695,103695#msg-103695

[cj]

Bush league tracks where the hot dog sellers usually double as morning line makers have better morning lines than SAR Travis should stick to race calling

https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,103695,103695#msg-103695


Thanks for that ridiculous contribution.

[Zaf]

Travis is doing a stellar job, not easy to make a ML when many fields come up with 6+ contenders.

Z

[Robes]

Thanks for that ridiculous contribution.

You're welcome anytime.

[Redboard]

He's definitely been better the last week or so…… I believe this thread has helped… I love an internet overreaction.

[burnsy]

Would you feel the same if Lady Lara went off at her 3-1 odds yesterday and then ran up the track? And would that affect your opinion at all if you knew that Lady Lara was in foal yesterday? She is.

The good MLO makers just might make it a point to ignore any and all racetrack info and gossip. Just sayin'.

I don't really pay attention to the morning line.....kind of make my own and go by the actual line. But I think its a really tough job to please all the people that do pay attention to it. Saratoga is so competitive that anyone will have "misses".

That being said, that horse was my best bet of the day. She had a huge class edge on that field. My friend and I agreed that anything over 5-2 was a steal on that horse. She was getting a wicked class relief in that race........in foal or not. When I saw 8-1 in the program I knew it was a pipe dream because that horse just had better running lines than anyone else in there.

People should do more "homework" than depending on a morning line..IMO. You make a good point.

[no breathalyzer]

shocked Lady Lara didn't go off 7/5 everyone seemed to have this horse.. the morning line hasn't been that bad... give him a brake Saratoga is the hardest line in America racing to make.. honestly i only seen a couple off lines relax guys.. why do people get so bent out of shape over a couple lines being off.. if anything you should like it.. there always a chance it could slip thru the cracks and boost the payoff

[burnsy]

I 100% percent agree with you No Breathalyzer. That was my point, if worrying about the morning line is your "secret weapon" at this place. One is going to need a lot of good luck. Like I said, anyone will miss some of these. As a competent handicapper one has to make their own judgments or Saratoga will eat that persons lunch. Its hard as it is, if one can't think for themselves......its damn near impossible. The morning line is not going to help said person at all. If the morning line is an excuse for losing.....I don't know what to say folks.

[v j stauffer]

And for gravy and justification, the 4 wins! Way to go Travis!

Just for clarification. Travis will concur.

The result of the race has absolutely ZERO to do with what he predicts the odds will be at post time.

There's no gravy, justification or any other connection to the line and results.

[classhandicapper]

Why do people care so much about the morning line?

I think it's more a guide for less experienced players than for serious handicappers.

Unless you need to project the odds because you are betting blind (like for a tournament where you have to put all your picks in before the card starts and the prices could be critical) I rarely look at the morning line. But even for those projection situations, once you've handicapped thousands of races you more or less start recognizing what the public bets relative to your own handicapping and don't really need a ML.

[Redboard]

I expressed my opinion about this subject before and I’m sure there are some who are tired of hearing it but I wish tracks would take it more seriously. If these were fixed odds, you know damn well they would.
Couldn’t tracks hire two full-time cappers whose only duties would be to watch video and pour over sheets, etc., so everyone else wouldn’t have to?

Unreliable ML odds look bad to a new customer(assuming those are not yet extinct). If a horse is 8-1 on the ML, then it wins by daylight at 3/2, that looks bad to the general public and contributes to the "insider" image the industry already has that it’s fixed. Of course for the experienced bettor, these overlays are fun to dig out, but with the plethora of information readily available, these plays are hard to come by these days.

And at the risk of sounding like SRU, there’s also the scratch issue. If one has to spend a lot of time figuring out "who is probably going to win the race," and that scratches, then it's a huge waste of time to the customer, who usually has better things to do.

The game is hard enough as it is, even when the MLs are accurate. A card player knows his odds when he places a bet. We’re asking horse players to spend hours and hours to come up with that(if the ML is unreliable). Let’s face it all we handicappers do is come up with a number. Young people just don’t want to do all this work anymore, and is one reason the game has declined.

<down off my soapbox>

[pandy]

Wow, another long thread about morning lines. The morning line this meet at Saratoga has been very good, and it's a tough meet to do the line. Although I agree that tracks should take it seriously, NYRA does, so it's a moot point. No matter who does the line, there will always be races or horses that people will complain about. It's a thankless job at times. The bottom line is, if you care that much about the odds, make your own line. There are tracks where the line is terrible and in that case they deserve criticism because a bad line is a reflection of their customer service.

But in my opinion, when a circuit has good lines, like NYRA, don't nitpick. The thing that people don't understand, the tracks do a two or three day draw and you have to put the line on the races as soon as they are drawn. I did lines for NYRA filling in for people at times and I didn't like it. I had to put a line on 28 races in an hour or two, off proofs, and the third day I was essentially working off of the entries. The morning line maker is usually on a deadline because they have to get the entries sent out to newspapers, printers, etc.

[Redboard]

....... I did lines for NYRA filling in for people at times and I didn't like it. I had to put a line on 28 races in an hour or two, off proofs, and the third day I was essentially working off of the entries. .....

That must have cut into your hot dog sales those days.

[pandy]

That must have cut into your hot dog sales those days.


What does that mean???

[pandy]

When it comes to the morning line, unfortunately, from my experience, there is not a lot of time. The graded entries have to get to the newspapers and off track facilities, casinos, etc. The programs have to be printed. The past performances have to be printed. The wheels start in motion for all of this as soon as the entries are drawn. There is a two or three day draw, you get some rough proofs, sometimes with lines missing, and you have to get the odds down quickly so the information can get out to all of the affiliates so that the entries can get into the various ADW systems, programs, pps, newspapers, online outlets, etc. So your job as the morning line maker is to get it done yesterday. That's the main reason why the lines aren't as accurate as you might expect. And it's never going to change, that's the way it works.

[Redboard]

What does that mean???

Lighten up Pandy. There's a running joke here the some tracks use the hot dog vendor to set their MLs. You took a shot at me with your " Wow, another long thread about morning lines. " I was just bustin your chops.

I did warn people that my post might be Superfluous. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think we exhausted this subject.

[pandy]

Oh, I see. I was just trying to explain how it works, as someone who has done it. Like most things, it's not as easy as it looks.

[HorsemenHeist]

Some rough morning lines so far today at the Spa and more to come

Race 1 8/1 ML off at 7/2

Race 2 the 10/1 ML with the best beyer on dirt in the race wins at 3/1.

Race 3 8/1 ML off at 3/1

Race 5 12/1 ML off at 4/1

And check out what Seven Forty Seven will go off at in the 7th

[Dahoss9698]

Some rough morning lines so far today at the Spa and more to come

Race 1 8/1 ML off at 7/2

Race 2 the 10/1 ML with the best beyer on dirt in the race wins at 3/1.

Race 3 8/1 ML off at 3/1

Race 5 12/1 ML off at 4/1

And check out what Seven Forty Seven will go off at in the 7th


Wouldn't it be fair to mention scratches altered the betting in 3 of the 4 races you mentioned?

The 6/5 ML entry in 1st both scratched

The Brown firster in 2nd scratched

3rd choice ML scratched in 3rd

I agree in 5th but I also never thought Spring to the Sky would be 12-1

Travis is doing a very difficult job really, really well IMO

[Dahoss9698]

Looks like he was pretty spot on in the 7th.

[garyscpa]

Looks like he was pretty spot on in the 7th.

Yeah, I thought that 9 was a bad fave, bet against. Ingrid Mason with two fast works at Arlington.

[SG4]

I see the ML for tomorrow's Ballerina has Wavell Avenue as the favorite, with Carina Mia 2nd choice at 7-2. Personally I'm expecting Carina Mia to be bet down to strong favoritism, 3-2 range perhaps. I know all the reasons why she shouldn't be that short, but I think she will be. How do others foresee the betting in here?

Travers I think Connect will end up at least double his ML of 4-1. Hard to pin down who will be 2nd choice behind Exaggerator, but I don't think it'll be him.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I see the ML for tomorrow's Ballerina has Wavell Avenue as the favorite, with Carina Mia 2nd choice at 7-2. Personally I'm expecting Carina Mia to be bet down to strong favoritism, 3-2 range perhaps. I know all the reasons why she shouldn't be that short, but I think she will be. How do others foresee the betting in here?

Travers I think Connect will end up at least double his ML of 4-1. Hard to pin down who will be 2nd choice behind Exaggerator, but I don't think it'll be him.

I think b/c of the CB factor/third-off-the-layoff angle/loves the surface means Wavell takes a decent amount of money ... great race.

[thespaah]

If I heard correctly Travis will be doing Talking Horses before the races with Gabby on Sunday

[TravisVOX]

I see the ML for tomorrow's Ballerina has Wavell Avenue as the favorite, with Carina Mia 2nd choice at 7-2. Personally I'm expecting Carina Mia to be bet down to strong favoritism, 3-2 range perhaps. I know all the reasons why she shouldn't be that short, but I think she will be. How do others foresee the betting in here?

Travers I think Connect will end up at least double his ML of 4-1. Hard to pin down who will be 2nd choice behind Exaggerator, but I don't think it'll be him.

I agree Carina Mia could go favored but that's not a guarantee. However, it is a guarantee that Wavell Avenue will take money so that's the way I went.

All throughout the week no one blinked twice when I said Connect would be the second choice. In fact, most agreed. At one point during my iterations I had him at 9-2 and several friends I respect thought that was even too high.

The rest of the field is a bit random. Does Destin recover? Does Gov Malibu step forward? Does Gun Runner need it dry? What's up with Creator? All of those questions led me to believe that "second tier" was random. Some of them will end up dipping into single digits... I was not about to guess which ones.

[TravisVOX]

If I heard correctly Travis will be doing Talking Horses before the races with Gabby on Sunday

Yes I am ... looking forward to it!

[thespaah]

Yes I am ... looking forward to it!
Me too....
BTW, glad you're "home"...
I made my annual trip to the Spa last week. Was hoping to bump into you. I did just that with TLG....Introduced myself after the 2nd on Saturday....
Anyway, look forward to the show Sunday

[thespaah]

I agree Carina Mia could go favored but that's not a guarantee. However, it is a guarantee that Wavell Avenue will take money so that's the way I went.

All throughout the week no one blinked twice when I said Connect would be the second choice. In fact, most agreed. At one point during my iterations I had him at 9-2 and several friends I respect thought that was even too high.

The rest of the field is a bit random. Does Destin recover? Does Gov Malibu step forward? Does Gun Runner need it dry? What's up with Creator? All of those questions led me to believe that "second tier" was random. Some of them will end up dipping into single digits... I was not about to guess which ones.
I see this edition of the Travers as as wide open at it has been in recent memory. Hence the large field.
It would come as no surprise if the post time favorite in the win pool is no lower than 5/2.....

[SG4]

I agree Carina Mia could go favored but that's not a guarantee. However, it is a guarantee that Wavell Avenue will take money so that's the way I went.

All throughout the week no one blinked twice when I said Connect would be the second choice. In fact, most agreed. At one point during my iterations I had him at 9-2 and several friends I respect thought that was even too high.

The rest of the field is a bit random. Does Destin recover? Does Gov Malibu step forward? Does Gun Runner need it dry? What's up with Creator? All of those questions led me to believe that "second tier" was random. Some of them will end up dipping into single digits... I was not about to guess which ones.

Thanks for taking time to reply. Do you often try to get the opinion of others before making ML for races, especially a feature one? No easy task, especially trying to project personal handicapping ideas onto the perception of the entire public.

[Track Phantom]

I agree Carina Mia could go favored but that's not a guarantee. However, it is a guarantee that Wavell Avenue will take money so that's the way I went....
With all due respect, I think you had this backwards. I think it was almost a certainty that Carina Mia was going to get bet (Songbird in the PP's is going to get a lot of attention) but not certain that Wavell Avenue was going to be highly touted as she appeared to be slightly below where she was last year.

Just my opinion, which I know is easier to have after the race is over.