How do you use speed figure pars? TFUS and Others

[StormAgain]

For DRF Figs:
I usually take the par and the par minus 5, circle any figure at par and underline anything par minus 5.

Example:
Par 88
Circle any 88, Underline any 83

For Turf races, I only use the underlined figs as a general indicator/threshold of class.

Do you do anything similar? Anything different?

Also any input from Timeform users would be really helpful. I'm not really sure if the whole 5 points thing is really applicable to their figs.

Thanks in advance!

[cj]

We don't have race pars at TimeformUS. We have race ratings which you can read about below.

https://timeformusblog.com/2013/07/06/race-ratings-added-to-timeformus-pps/

[StormAgain]

Very cool! I must have missed the importance of those ratings at some point. I will definitely start using those.

Follow up speed figure question, lets say the past two winners of the Diana ran a 116 figure on TFUS.

Should you toss horses if they can't run a 111 figure?

How do you judge contenders from throwouts based on figures?

[cj]

Very cool! I must have missed the importance of those ratings at some point. I will definitely start using those.

Follow up speed figure question, lets say the past two winners of the Diana ran a 116 figure on TFUS.

Should you toss horses if they can't run a 111 figure?

How do you judge contenders from throwouts based on figures?

I'm not big on pars to be honest. I'm more worried about what it is going to take to win with the field today. I'll check out the Diana and post more later tonight.

[classhandicapper]

For DRF Figs:
I usually take the par and the par minus 5, circle any figure at par and underline anything par minus 5.
Thanks in advance!

If you are just using speed figures, I don't think the PARs help that much. Just look at the speed figures of the horses in the race to identify the contenders.

If you are more class oriented, then the class PARs can help you determine where Claimers fit with ALW, Statebreds fit with open, Maidens fit with winners, limited winner Claimers fit with open Claimers, 3yos fit with older at various times of the year etc... on average. I think it helps to know the pecking order at your track.

[therussmeister]

The main thing I use speed figure pars for is maiden races to determine whether to bet first time starters. If there are no horses with experience that look like they can run equal to speed pars I will often take a chance on a first timer even if they look pretty miserable themselves.

There is one caveat -- I almost always expect maiden winners to show improvement over their most recent races, so the best runners have to be significantly below par before I look to a first time starter.

[ldiatone]

I'm not big on pars to be honest. I'm more worried about what it is going to take to win with the field today. I'll check out the Diana and post more later tonight.
hi cj, if not pars what is your opinion about track models? thanks

[cj]

hi cj, if not pars what is your opinion about track models? thanks


Track models as it relates to running styles? I think those are good information. Part of the pieced I did for HANA is a kind of track model of the varying 5.5f turf sprints at Saratoga.

[jasperson]

Thanks to all of you that don't use race pars. I would not think of betting a horse that has run close to the race par at today's distance and class. It is one of my first eliminations.

[cj]

I'm not big on pars to be honest. I'm more worried about what it is going to take to win with the field today. I'll check out the Diana and post more later tonight.

Race rating today is at 125. I would eliminate any horse that hasn't shown the ability to run at least 120. That doesn't do much good today as only one horse, Onus, hasn't done it and even she has come close. This is a very contentious race and one I'll probably pass. I'm not really interested in races with nine contenders.

[Capper Al]

The problem with DRF style pars is that they reflect the class of horse at today's track. This same field on another track might have a different par. I know the speed figs are universal.

[Tom]

What DRF pars?

[cj]

Thanks to all of you that don't use race pars. I would not think of betting a horse that has run close to the race par at today's distance and class. It is one of my first eliminations.

How is that different than eliminating horses that are slower than the rest of the field? What do you do if none of the horses have run close to par?

[pandy]

Thanks to all of you that don't use race pars. I would not think of betting a horse that has run close to the race par at today's distance and class. It is one of my first eliminations.

Today's 4th race at Saratoga might be the best $40,000 maiden claiming race of all time. 8 of the 10 horses have run to par or better at least once and 7 of them are making their first start for a tag.

[bobphilo]

I'm not big on pars to be honest. I'm more worried about what it is going to take to win with the field today. I'll check out the Diana and post more later tonight.

Agree 100%, CJ. Race specific pars have no validity as they consist of too small a sample to have any statistical validity. If you go back far enough to get a decent sample size you are introducing too many confounding variables from the far past. Better to stick to the current horses running today.

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks to all of you that don't use race pars. I would not think of betting a horse that has run close to the race par at today's distance and class. It is one of my first eliminations.

I'm just curious.

Are you just kidding but in case you're serious why would they be eliminated without an evaluation?

Is it because they wouldn't be able to equal or improve from their past history and would always regress?