CORY BLACKS COMMENTS, IS TRIP HANDICAPPING DEAD?

[delayjf]

Cory Black had some interesting comments about horses who get into trouble. He said that with replays etc, that horses with bad trips now garner a lot of attention reducing their para mutual valve.

Indeed the horse in question was Savage who ran yesterday at hollywood park. I saw the bad race that he experienced previously and made a mental note to follow him. But when I compared him to the other horses in yesterdays race. Using CJ speed/pace figures, I concluded that his best was not good enough in this field. At any rate, he got bet from 5-1 to 5/2. I assume the bet down was due to the well published bad trip.

Any trip handicappers out there seeing the same thing. A while back I posted what I though might be another trainer angle. That being the second start after a bad trip when the first start after the bad trip (usually at low odds) is dull. Anybody else see this pattern.

[horsemaven]

I would agree with Corey Black. When trip handicapping was first in vogue back in the mid-1980s, the average handicapper did not have access to races all over the country, much less replays of those races, except for the ones run at his/her home track. Today, the access is easy and inexpensive, if not free. As a result, the value of trip handicapping has been diminshed to a certain extent. Watching races and evaluating them is just one of many attributes that a winning handicapper needs to have.

horsemaven

[Storm Cadet]

Man,

How many people are using Cj's figs? I used them yesterday at Belmont for the 1st time with race download data from Bris and had one of my best days in a long time...even my kids came up winners after they dotted his choices with yellow highlighters.:D

[Valuist]

Its only dead on the horses who get checked or supposedly lack room; the types that even Joe Public remembers. Its definitely not dead on against the bias types and horses who race wide on turns on the grass.

[andicap]

There are subtle trips.
Horses that move very fast into the quickest fraction of the race. (Beyer dubbed this "MIHP" in his notes) for instances.

Horses that go 3 around the first turn don't always get noticed and they are big disadvantages.

[Dan Montilion]

Appears Corey was confusing "trouble handicapping" with "trip handicapping". Oh well, just another verification of my personal stand to never take into serious thought anything said by jocks, trainers, owners and least of all pimps... I mean jock agents.

Dan (standing alone) Montilion

[Valuist]

Ever notice how track announcers overestimate traffic trouble? The kind of trip I'm talking about is a horse just behind 3-4 horses as the field turns for home. The announcers are always besides themselves. "Glue Factory has nowhere to go and is crying out for run". What usually happens? A hole eventually opens and Glue Factory, who has been conserving his energy for a few seconds, now fires thru and often wins. I think this is actually a good trip yet many believe it is a rough trip. Horses may not be intelligent but they rarely run up on another horse and clip heels. They instinctively know to slow down a bit and end up conserving energy in these situations.

[thelyingthief]

i recall a "bad trip" on a 20-1 shot i had selected at DMR some years ago. i had predicted the race, and was full of expectation: lo, behold, and yea damned verily! the jockey proceeded at the eigth pole to run his late charging do-da square into a wall of early/pressing horses swooning in the stretch. i mean, what does it take to figure either an outside path or the rail is the place to be if you're closing? finally, with a sixteenth to go, the wonder with the smaller brain realizes he must seek another path, darts out, and gets up for third, beaten 2 and a half.

im seething, spittle's running down my chin, i'm urging a federal investigation, and a handicapper beside me says, "don't worry, you'll get him next time". i turn to this jockey, i mean handicapper, and i retort, "like hell i will, this WAS his next time!".

which is my way of saying, most trip handicapping fails because each race is unique, and the form of most horses subjected to it too ephemeral for it to be effective. i tend to suspect trip handicapping is only objectively useful in determining if a very consistent animal is going off form or not--which has a direct bearing on projected variants, since consistent types are the sine qua non of their manufacture. maybe why beyer was so big on em, i say.

[Tom]

CJ da man. "CJ's" beat Beyers.

Excuse races. At a Sartin seminar in Baltimore, Tom Brohamer and Dick Schmidt gave us a lesson on comment lines in the form.
In the random race they uses to get comments from, there were 53 legitimate trouble lines on horses and not a single one of them came back to win the next race.

[SAL]

The kind of trips I like to capitalize on:

3 or 4 horses dueling early in a race.

Broke slow and rushed up to battle pace

Making up some lengths into a fast last fraction

Bothered by loose horse (very rare, usually have to see the race)

Move into a hot pace (see andicap's post)

and a few more I can't think of-

[the little guy]

Just the idea that ex-bad jockey Corey Black said " trip handicapping " is dead is very funny. What does he possibly know about serious " trip handicapping "?

Like the other posters said, the obvious trouble stuff is basically irrelevant, and of course every nitwit sees it. It is only in watching thousands of races, many repetitiously, that a player can learn to truly watch races, and understand horses that get the kinds of trips they can't win with. True " trip handicapping ' is watching races develop and watching the participants' trips, as they relate to the way a race is being run, and upgrading or downgrading their respective performances accordingly.

Or perhaps Corey thinks trip handicapping is dead because there are so many less bad trips now that he's retired.

[cj]

Originally posted by SAL
The kind of trips I like to capitalize on:

3 or 4 horses dueling early in a race.

Broke slow and rushed up to battle pace

Making up some lengths into a fast last fraction

Bothered by loose horse (very rare, usually have to see the race)

Move into a hot pace (see andicap's post)

and a few more I can't think of-

Two I like, dueling wide, and lone chaser, that is if the horse is normally a little farther back.

[Jeff P]

I know that we've all seen our share of bad trips. Here's the official chartcaller's comment for a horse at Pleasanton that I just lost a win bet on who had a three length lead inside the eight pole on a speed favoring track:

COSMIC HIGH set all the pace to the final furlong, was steadied approaching tire tracks near the sixteenth pole and came on again but was unable to make up ground.

Whenever you think you've seen it all...

:mad::mad::mad:

[Jeff P]

One of the things I did a while back was import the chartcaller's trip comments from the most recent start into my database. I then attempted to analyze them. There are lots of different variations for the way different chartcallers say the same thing. Once I got past that I went looking for bad trips that were underbet next time out. That said, I found very few bad trip types that showed any promise whatsoever. Then I turned it around and went looking for bad trips last out that were overbet today. That approach had slightly better results. I was able to isolate a handful of trip types that the public frequently overbets in the mistaken belief that the last race bad trip should somehow land the horse in the winner's circle today.

[mudnturf]

At racetracks that have a short run to the first turn in two turn races, I like to look for horses that started from extreme outside post positions.
More often than not they have to go very wide into that first turn.
Only the really good ones can overcome what is usually a "handicapped" start.
If they come back in another two turn race and draw an inside post position, I give 'em a hard look.

[Valuist]

Mud-

I hope you caught the last race at AP today. Sam's Boy had the 11, 12 and 11 hole in his last 3 turf races and went wide in all 3 races. Today he drew the 5 hole, got a much better trip and was an easy winner at $8.40 when he should've been about 3-2.

[CapperLou]

An example of what can happen is Fiddlers Cat in 9th Bel today!
Horse had an outside post and ran "outside" all the way at 24-1 and still managed to get 2nd--flying in the stretch!!
Today, Bailey hangs around till 9th to ride this mdn and we got 2-1 and wins by two easily.
This to me was a good spot--would have liked 3-1, but Bailey brought the odds down. Was only play of day for me.

All the best,

CapperLou

[kenwoodallpromos]

At least the comments accurately reflected that the upper stretch rail was slow. Unless they left the tire tracks on the track the entire card.

[timtam]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Storm Cadet
Man,

How many people are using Cj's figs? I used them yesterday at Belmont for the 1st time with race download data from Bris and had one of my best days in a long time...even my kids came up winners after they dotted his choices with yellow highlighters.:D [ Could you please elaborate how you and your kids used CJ's figs with Bris data and what/how did your kids use a yellow highliter????

[cj]

The figures nailed the Va Oaks today, $13 winner and $27 exacta...those two towered over the field with last turf figs of 101, noone else was above 94.

[cj]

Add a $23 winner in the 9th at Crc that I just gave out in the War Room...feeling it today baby!

[delayjf]

After given this some thought, I guess it depends on the type of trouble that gets overbet. For example, horses getting blocked in the stretch is obvious to everybody. It's easier to conclude that a horse would have won had he gotten threw. But breaking poorly or getting shut out at the gate is something that is a lot harder to visualize having as big a impact at the finish.