Think better, win more

[traynor]

"What this (and dozens of other experiments) reveal is the way we filter new information when it challenges our strongly-held beliefs or judgements. We use a series of post hoc manoeuvres to reframe anything inconvenient to our original position. We question the probity of the evidence, or the credentials of the people who discovered it, or their motives, or whatever. The more information that emerges to challenge our perspective, the more creatively we search for new justifications, and the more entrenched we become in our prior view."
This tendency is called "cognitive dissonance".

...

"Science has changed the world because it prioritises evidence over conviction. Judgements are subservient to what the data tells us. The problem is that in many areas of our world, evidence is revised to fit with prior assumptions - and the tragedy is that we are often unaware of this process because it happens subconsciously."

...

"The good news is that we can combat this tendency, and measurably improve our judgements, when we become alert to it. Indeed, the hallmark of pioneering institutions is that they deal with cognitive dissonance not by reframing inconvenient evidence, but by creating systems that learn from it (and thus avoid related biases such as "group think")."

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-36744911

In a nutshell, people rarely consider things that conflict with their preconceived, subjective, internal opinions and biases in a thoughtful manner, while "strongly remembering" things that coincide with those same opinions and biases. There are few areas in which this tendency is demonstrated more clearly than in handicapping horse races.

The near-total avoidance of any hint of even the most basic data analysis processes (including in some otherwise well-designed "handicapping" software applications) by the majority of bettors would seem incredibly strange until one realizes the desire to confirm preconceived notions is stronger (in most) than the desire to win. The feeling of "being a winner" is worth more (to most) than actual profit.

The alternative--to ignore that trivial sprinkle of "positive results" in a trivial number of races that make one feel for a moment that he or she is the sharpest tack in the box and has discovered The Answer--is much more useful. And profitable.

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it" is only useful if one sees reality, rather than seeing only what one wants to see. Viewing reality enables one to realize her or his processes are not working, and need to be fixed.

[therussmeister]

In a nutshell, people rarely consider things that conflict with their preconceived, subjective, internal opinions and biases in a thoughtful manner, while "strongly remembering" things that coincide with those same opinions and biases.
This is why I've actually found the off topic section the most helpful in improving my handicapping, as there is a massive amount of this going on in any thread that turns to politics. I use it as a warning to myself to make sure I am avoiding these pitfalls.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

This is why I've actually found the off topic section the most helpful in improving my handicapping, as there is a massive amount of this going on in any thread that turns to politics. I use it as a warning to myself to make sure I am avoiding these pitfalls.

Here is a perfect example of the most common mistake handicappers make. You go into a race with the pre-conceived notion that HORSE A sucks and you leave him off your ticket and he runs out of the money. You are a genius.

However, because you had that pre-conceived notion, you fail to review the performance of HORSE A on said race where he ran out of the money -- and miss the obvious fact that his performance was MUCH IMPROVED over previous performances and mistakenly leave him off your tickets the next time he races -- and it turns out to be a costly mistake.

I submit, for your consideration, that THAT is the most common mistake handicappers make.

[reckless]

The best best approach for me in all my monetary endeavors, such as betting the races and financial planning and investing is this:

1--Think independently and do not follow popular opinion and group think. Avoid contasion, especially.

2--Think smart. Prepare yourself to make the right handicapping (betting) and investment decisions based on sound independent study and discipline.

[traynor]

This is why I've actually found the off topic section the most helpful in improving my handicapping, as there is a massive amount of this going on in any thread that turns to politics. I use it as a warning to myself to make sure I am avoiding these pitfalls.

I think a lot of "political comment" spins out of learned helplessness. That is, one discovers one has little or no ability to do anything about whatever, and resigns one's self to complaining (sometimes more ranting) about whatever.

A bit like the residents in a zoo occasionally rattling their cage--just to show the zookeepers who is really the boss.

[traynor]

Here is a perfect example of the most common mistake handicappers make. You go into a race with the pre-conceived notion that HORSE A sucks and you leave him off your ticket and he runs out of the money. You are a genius.

However, because you had that pre-conceived notion, you fail to review the performance of HORSE A on said race where he ran out of the money -- and miss the obvious fact that his performance was MUCH IMPROVED over previous performances and mistakenly leave him off your tickets the next time he races -- and it turns out to be a costly mistake.

I submit, for your consideration, that THAT is the most common mistake handicappers make.

I think the most common error is more generic--remembering the wins and dismissing the losses as "entertainment" (or some other equally foolish rationalization).

[Parkview_Pirate]

...I submit, for your consideration, that THAT is the most common mistake handicappers make.

IMHO, by far and away the most common mistake handicappers make is that all connections are trying to win the race. While some horses, mostly the higher quality ones, can make repeated top efforts - it's more common for a horse to have predictable cycles, and only "fire" when pointed for particular races.

However, I agree whole-heartedly that correct predictions can re-enforce future handicapping decisions, regardless of the root cause of a performance. And if a horse you didn't like shows much improvement, your negative opinion may carry over to the next race. I try to avoid this by looking at each race as a unique event, and don't use the "who raced who/who beat who" method that is so popular with some handicappers.

To be a good handicapper, it requires the discipline to be open-minded, which in turn requires the character trait of humility. It's always a balancing act between ego, confidence, humility and reality to keep improving.

[traynor]

The best best approach for me in all my monetary endeavors, such as betting the races and financial planning and investing is this:

1--Think independently and do not follow popular opinion and group think. Avoid contasion, especially.

2--Think smart. Prepare yourself to make the right handicapping (betting) and investment decisions based on sound independent study and discipline.

Generally a good approach. I am a big fan of reality, rather than "positive thinking" (which is about as close to absurdity as one can get and still function--if it can be called functioning). That is, I think it is really silly to lie to one's self. One's self is liable to adopt such foolishness in lieu of exerting effort to actually accomplish something (rather than just pretending and "feeling good" about the lie).

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

I think the most common error is more generic--remembering the wins and dismissing the losses as "entertainment" (or some other equally foolish rationalization).

Yes, my example was more precise. Your generalization goes beyond gambling. It is why some people think they have ESP or clairvoyant ability or can read minds, etc. As you said, people forget when they are wrong. We are constantly making predictions in our minds and all are forgotten except when they hit, albeit a fraction of the time.


Criminals, er, Psychics count on that human frailty to make a dishonest buck.

[thaskalos]

I think the most common error is more generic--remembering the wins and dismissing the losses as "entertainment" (or some other equally foolish rationalization).

Or counting your near-misses as worth-while achievements...because only "bad luck" separated you from a nice score.

[reckless]

Nice to see you back Thask.... hope you are feeling well. Welcome again.

[thaskalos]

Nice to see you back Thask.... hope you are feeling well. Welcome again.

I am feeling a lot better, thank you.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Yes, welcome back - glad to hear you're well. Perfect thread your insight.

[thaskalos]

Here is a perfect example of the most common mistake handicappers make. You go into a race with the pre-conceived notion that HORSE A sucks and you leave him off your ticket and he runs out of the money. You are a genius.

However, because you had that pre-conceived notion, you fail to review the performance of HORSE A on said race where he ran out of the money -- and miss the obvious fact that his performance was MUCH IMPROVED over previous performances and mistakenly leave him off your tickets the next time he races -- and it turns out to be a costly mistake.

I submit, for your consideration, that THAT is the most common mistake handicappers make.
And I submit that the most common mistake made by handicappers is placing too much emphasis on the performance given in the horse's last race. The notion that the horse's last race is the clearest indication of the horse's form is the game's biggest fallacy...IMO. This is what causes me to get into persistent arguments with my replay-watching friends. They'll tell me that a particular horse is a non-contender today...because the horse's last effort was totally underwhelming, visually. And then they'll proceed to give me reason after reason to support their notion that this horse will flounder today...only to watch the horse run as if its last raceline was a forgery, and win impressively.

And this doesn't just happen in horse racing...it happens in other sports too. I have recently started betting on MLB games...and I happened to watch an Anaheim Angels game a while back. The Angels had the struggling Jered Weaver on the mound...and he gave one of the worst pitching performances that I'd ever seen. His pitching velocity had declined to the point where I couldn't tell if I was watching a professional pitcher...or a 54-year-old Thaskalos. I quickly made a mental note to never wager on the Angels in a Weaver-pitched game ever again. Of course...Weaver pitched impressively in his next two starts, and won both games.

Gambling is a lot more complicated than we sometimes make it out to be.

[boxcar]

Or counting your near-misses as worth-while achievements...because only "bad luck" separated you from a nice score.

Thask, I thought you had fallen off the planet! Welcome back. Hope all is well with you.

[thaskalos]

Thask, I thought you had fallen off the planet! Welcome back. Hope all is well with you.

Thank you, Boxcar...things couldn't be better. I just felt that a short break was warranted...and I am now back as a kinder and gentler version of my original self. :)

[boxcar]

Thank you, Boxcar...things couldn't be better. I just felt that a short break was warranted...and I am now back as a kinder and gentler version of my original self. :)

Looking forward to meeting your new version. :)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Or counting your near-misses as worth-while achievements...because only "bad luck" separated you from a nice score.

Hey I am over a 25% ROI to place(near misses!) and I bet turf a ton and they are all photo finishes. Tough sledding all round T! Tough game. I stopped specializing and am a win whore and will play wherever. Fairmount did me good today! Good to see ya man!

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I still believe that you must have a brutal honesty about your strengths and weaknesses in this game in order to 'survive'. Once the weaknesses are addressed you can begin to play this game for profit, and even then it is still a daily battle between yourself for staying the course....very difficult but never impossible.

[AndyC]

Generally a good approach. I am a big fan of reality, rather than "positive thinking" (which is about as close to absurdity as one can get and still function--if it can be called functioning). That is, I think it is really silly to lie to one's self. One's self is liable to adopt such foolishness in lieu of exerting effort to actually accomplish something (rather than just pretending and "feeling good" about the lie).

Positive thinking is a marvelous tool for helping with skills such as golfing. Properly done it isn't done by lying to one's self. Negative thinking is as destructive as positive thinking in situations where so-called reality should be the goal.

[thaskalos]

Positive thinking is a "marvelous tool"...as long as we don't fall prey to the folly surrounding it. When we get to the "Whatever the mind can conceive and believe, it can achieve" territory...then we have abandoned our common sense.

[AndyC]

Positive thinking is a "marvelous tool"...as long as we don't fall prey to the folly surrounding it. When we get to the "Whatever the mind can conceive and believe, it can achieve" territory...then we have abandoned our common sense.

What is the folly surrounding it? I think Norman Vincent Peale was correct. See also http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-clear/positive-thinking_b_3512202.html

I am not suggesting one abandon science and facts and rely entirely on positive thinking.

[thaskalos]

What is the folly surrounding it? I think Norman Vincent Peale was correct. See also http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-clear/positive-thinking_b_3512202.html

I am not suggesting one abandon science and facts and rely entirely on positive thinking.

I have read Mr. Peale's work...and I have found it unsatisfying. I have been far more impressed by Dirty Harry Callahan...who astutely pointed out that "A man's got to know his limitations" . Regrettable though it may be, we are not all destined for greatness.

IMO..."positive thinking" doesn't necessarily improve a person's "success" level. It just makes him more comfortable in his failure.

[classhandicapper]

My best experience with positive and negative thinking comes from gambling on pool games. This is going to sound silly, but the movie "The Hustler" does a very good job of describing "winners" and "losers" in that game. There's a mental component to the game that will impact not only your decision making, but your ability to execute under pressure.

If you get a few random bad breaks and start feeling like you are destined to lose, you will find ways to lose.

If you get into a pattern of losing, you'll eventually find a way to make a bad game and turn a winning night into a losing night.

If you look at a tough shot with fear, it makes it a lot tougher to make than if you are feeling confident.

Once you reach a certain level, the battle is as much about being mentally tough and positive as it is about executing physically.