Vector Magnetism

[traynor]

Sartin's somewhat more delicate euphemism for what is generally called "suckalong" in thoroughbreds and quarters.

Example:
SARF<>Pace<>4300<>JUL09<>R06<>3 2 1 4<>4.00<>89.50<>
(3 2 1 4 is order of finish)

3 was a solid choice. Not much to recommend 2. Nice exacta. Seems to happen more than random would indicate. Same thing happens (for place position) with PP1 placing to something else--often at decent exacta mutuels. Has anyone looked at this over a large clump of races?

[traynor]

Same scenario, except an outie instead of an innie:
SARF<>Pace<>3000<>JUL09<>R08<>5 6 1 4<>8.60<>250.00<>

[traynor]

ScD<>Pace<>17500<>JUL09<>R04<>1 2 5 6<>4.20<>29.40<>

ScD<>Pace<>25000<>JUL09<>R05<>2 3 1 6<>7.40<>36.20<>

ScD<>Pace<>11500<>JUL09<>R13<>5 4 6 2<>2.20<>19.60<>

Charles Carroll (and others) studied this in regard to quarterhorse races (at which it is a commonly used strategy). As most of you know, the "second best" horse does not often place at high enough mutuels to turn a decent profit.

[willphorse]

Can you expand a bit further? Have been a big follower of Doc Sartin and his extraordinary theories regarding energy distribution, however, have not found it to be as useful in harness racing where 1/2 of the race is in a single file line and cover/speed plays a huge roll in the outcome of the race.

[traynor]

Can you expand a bit further? Have been a big follower of Doc Sartin and his extraordinary theories regarding energy distribution, however, have not found it to be as useful in harness racing where 1/2 of the race is in a single file line and cover/speed plays a huge roll in the outcome of the race.

Sartin's ideas were (are) a useful starting point (or introduction) to pace analysis. Pace analysis has advanced way beyond that point in the last 30 years.

One of the most useful advances in pace handicapping has been the integration of data analysis processes into the research phase that are considered routine in just about every other area of research.

[traynor]

GEOD<>Pace<>7500<>JUL17<>R07<>6 5 2 3<>6.40<>65.10<>

One of MANY such in the past week. 6 was easily predictable, the 5 much less so (as the rather generous exacta mutuel makes clear).

Something to consider. It has more to do with the nature of horses than with "handicapping" or "pace analysis." One might consider time spent studying the behavior of the animals one bets on a good investment.

[Saratoga_Mike]

It has more to do with the nature of horses than with "handicapping" or "pace analysis."

Please expand.

[traynor]

Scar<>Pace<>2800<>JUL17<>R06<>3 2 7 4<>4.20<>32.60<>

Nice exacta to go with a 4.20 winner.

[traynor]

Please expand.

For starters, read Horsewatching by Desmond Morris (you may recall his prior works The Naked Ape and People Watching). Quick, easy read. Lots of good material.

https://www.amazon.com/Horsewatching-horse-whinny-everything-wanted/dp/0517572672