R7 Belmont: G3 Dwyer

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Yes, there are better races tomorrow at Belmont, but this one is the most intriguing to me from a wagering standpoint.

(I'd love it if you all didn't bitch and moan about the history of this race and now where it stands on the calendar.

We have 3YOs in a G3 event, running for $500K. That is more than some G1 events.)

Anyway, lets get to it:

:1: The Great Whiteway: Looks to be overmatched, but has hit the Exacta in 9 of 12 career races, including the last 8. In this post, he has to be forwardly placed to be any kind of threat against his peers in here. Gotta pass.

:2: Tale of S'avall: I've been a fan of this one for a while. And while I have never made a wager on this guy, he has been surefire on my radar. The waiting game may be over, and he could be live. He has been beat by just about everybody in this race, but I can't overlook this guy who will be overlooked by everybody.

:3: Voluntario: Decent enough colt that keeps improving, but hasn't faced this level of competition yet. Solid stalker, but there are much better in here at his game. Pass.

:4: Laoban: He'll likely have the lead. Can he do it for 8 furlongs against these? He certainly might be able. He has obviously ran against much better. Question is, can he wall off 2nd and 3rd tier peers? He couldn't wall off Shagaf. 7/2 ML is shady for me.

:5: Unbridled Outlaw: This is a colt on the improve. While he only has a Maiden score to his name, he has faced some tough competition this year already against many of the very best of his peers. Recent works point towards a Grade A effort. This is very much my upset selection.

:6: Economic Model: Somewhat of an enigma, this guy had some solid noise rolling into this year for Triple Crown glory. A complete clunker in the TB Derby, and he has definitely recouped with 2 straight victories on his return to the track since that debacle in March. Either way 1/1 is a bit crazy in this field.

:7: Swipe: 2016 has not been kind for this 4 time runner-up to Kentucky Derby champion Nyquist. Reality is, he really hasn't been competitive in his 2 starts in 2016; and against lesser competition. Kent is back in the irons, can he make a difference?

:8: Fish Trappe Road: As in form as anybody. Real question is can he get the distance, and do so from an outside post? He'll have to be on the lead, or really really close. Not a big fan of Saez in this position either. Pass.

W: :5:
EX: :2::5: Box
TRI: :2::5:/:2::5::7:/:2::5::6::7:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Economic Model just looks like one of those horses that you have to play against in a race like this. The problem for me is that there isn't a whole lot to get real excited about trying to do so with.

But, I do like :7: Swipe.

At least in this race, I do. Most of these horses look like they just don't really belong in this sort of race, but decided what the hell when nominations came out and Economic Model figured to be odds-on.

What I like about Swipe is pretty simple. He looks like does fit. And he has been somewhat logically campaigned. Was setup to be a good two-year-old and was - making Nyquist really sweat in the last stages of the juvenile season and just being unlucky to face him over and over in the big races at that time.

He gets a deserved break and comes back in April, maybe some setbacks, maybe just trying to capitalize on being fresh to turn the tables on his rival with a last ditch effort to make it to the Derby. For whatever reason, that effort in the Lex knocked him off that route.

Another sixty plus days goes by and he comes back in - a 1x allowance (nice condition to have when you have banked nearly two-thirds of a million) going short and has the look of quintessential prep.

He got his easy race over the track, wheels back right quick, and should get a perfect setup if he's ever going to fire and make good on the promise that he should last season.

For me the question is simply if he really does hang up there at a price resembling the 6-1 M/L because I'm taking the glass half-full view on a lot of these speculations about what are legit question marks. Somehow I doubt that price sticks and is probably more like 7-2 at best, which is okay for me, but still think maybe the play if I shoot for him is pick bets singling him and trying to beat all the tickets that single the even money M/L favorite looking for a free square in the sequence.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Economic Model just looks like one of those horses that you have to play against in a race like this. The problem for me is that there isn't a whole lot to get real excited about trying to do so with.

But, I do like :7: Swipe.
.

Who do you like in the other big races at Belmont today? And yes, it is a loaded and great card.:jump:

[dkbigsky]

i like the :8: to win and the :4: to place

[BCOURTNEY]

:7:
:3:
:8:
:1:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Who do you like in the other big races at Belmont today? And yes, it is a loaded and great card.:jump:

The Belmont Derby is a race that pushes me towards the pick approach mentioned in your highlighted race in large part because it looks like some the Euro horses fit awfully well. I just don't have a good feel for them and am usually just trying to make a judgment on whether or not they can run at the level or not. Trying to evaluate them relative to one another or the rest of the field is not my forte.

But, if I got a really sweet price on Highland Sky, I'd probably take a shot. He seems to never have a dream trip and yet always makes a good run. He just looks like a racehorse, maybe not a great one, but a racehorse nonetheless and one will make whoever is in the field run hard to beat him.

I have kind of a similar thing going on with Oaks (skipping to the tenth for readability); not too sure what to do with a couple solid Euros, have to take a shot against Catch a Glimpse in a field of this size and depth, not to mention the distance, and am left with still a few that look capable if the aforementioned aren't there.

Both Time and Motion and Harmonize are fillies that I'll probably keep an eye on in addition to spreading some in a pick bet. Both honest fillies that have run hard more or less at this level and can see one or the other, maybe even both, getting a little lost in the tote shuffle and having to take a little shot.

I haven't looked for scratches yet, but the Suburban is a race where I really want to try to catch Noble Bird coming out of a mission impossible race. Stretching back out and off of what at a glance looks like a terrible race, I want to believe that he'll find a much easier lead and put them to bed and grow a big set turning for home and pull off a mild upset at a square price.

The problem is that I also like the scenario where Effinex is intent upon preventing that exact scenario from unfolding to the benefit of his stablemate Shaman Ghost. The latter there isn't exactly a proven commodity in this sort of company, but I do like the turn-back off the mile and a half, and the way that he ran that last race despite probably preferring some real pace to run down. Eventually if I play the race I think it's one where I have to take a stand and pick my poison among the two scenarios since it isn't as though I'm landing on a couple of 12-1 shots that I think could win. If there are scratches to either Jerkens horse or the Bird, obviously things get easier on that front.

I had no real clue what to do in the Sprint. I don't want to play either Anchor Dawn (not really a seven furlong horse and just kind of think he's been carefully managed to a short peak that makes him look better than he probably is) and Private Zone just has too much going on to like at a short price.

I'd probably use both of those on pick ticket and haven't really decided what to do exactly, but if nailed down for a play here - I'd probably have to come with Ready For Rye. Proficient over the track, actually seems to appreciate seven furlongs, has speed but doesn't need to use all of it to be effective, has experience without having a ton of starts, is and older horse without being an old horse, and generally seems capable at about this level with consistency without being a specialist of one type. I guess. :D

[dkbigsky]

i like the english horses in the derby

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The Belmont Derby

I had to cutoff your diatribe. :) But I loved every word of it. :ThmbUp:

The "Darby": I'm looking for :8: Airoforce to be better here. Also like the :12: Call Provision to have a chance against the foreigners.

Suburban: Not real exicted about this one. Maybe take a stab at :2: Mubtaahij? If I can get :4: Eagle at 5/1 I'll play, but I don't see him being 5/1.

Oaks: Maybe the :11: Magnanime? The :6: Harmonize has me a bit interested as well to beat :12: Catch a Glimpse.

Sprint: I'm gonna be all over the :5: A.P. Indian and/or :6: Joking

[johnhannibalsmith]

Songsational to kick off a pick 3... please oh please now let's be right about Swipe. :D

[Tom]

Looking for a flat :18 final quarter in this one.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Thought I met get lucky with One True Kiss at the quarter pole then was just hoping to stay lucky with Coppa at the sixteenth. :D

[PhantomOnTour]

i'm giving the :3: Voluntario a shot to hit the exacta here. Only bad race was his debut, a turf sprint last summer at the Spa.
Been right there in almost every race since...short, long, fast, muddy.

yeah, he makes his GrStks debut here, but no one in this field has ever won a GrStks, so i doubt he's in too far over his head.
Gonna sit a nice trip and run his race...plus, I like his figure pattern:
Equaled his 2yr old best, popped a big number next out at Pim, then regressed a bit while winning his last race, rebounds to a big number today.
Fingers crossed - will take 6-1 but no lower on odds board.
Using under the :5: :6: and over the :2: :5: :6: :7: in exactas with a win bet.

Good luck y'all

[Tom]

I've seen a lot of great Dwyer's over the years.
This don't make the top 20.

Why take short odds Grade 7 horses?
Take the :4: at 8-1 and go get a hot dog.
Nothing in here looks all that unbeatable.
Except the :1: :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

:6: - deserving favorite , superior athlete, top jock , not the smoothest stride will still need to work

:5: - not as good as 6, but he is fundamentally sound

:3: - longshot who can hit the board

[johnhannibalsmith]

... please oh please now let's be right about Swipe. :D

Errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Lemon Drop Husker]

https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.Mbc645a20d46cdc22f2eacc0dd5f485fbo0&pid=15.1&P=0&w=327&h=164

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i like the :8: to win and the :4: to place

Well done. :ThmbUp:

[dkbigsky]

Thanks I really like the :7: in the derby

[johnhannibalsmith]

T...

But, if I got a really sweet price on Highland Sky, I'd probably take a shot. He seems to never have a dream trip and yet always makes a good run. ...

Glad I didn't get a sweet price. Suck back to last for a half insistent on saving ground only to be forced to go widest of all in order to get out of the spot he sucked into and that 25 wide run around the turn under a drive turns into a neck defeat. :bang:

[sammy the sage]

I had to cutoff your diatribe. :) But I loved every word of it. :ThmbUp:

The "Darby": I'm looking for :8: Airoforce to be better here. Also like the :12: Call Provision to have a chance against the foreigners.

Suburban: Not real exicted about this one. Maybe take a stab at :2: Mubtaahij? If I can get :4: Eagle at 5/1 I'll play, but I don't see him being 5/1.

Oaks: Maybe the :11: Magnanime? The :6: Harmonize has me a bit interested as well to beat :12: Catch a Glimpse.

Sprint: I'm gonna be all over the :5: A.P. Indian and/or :6: Joking


Nice call on A P. Indian.