Songbird heading to Saratoga!

[classhandicapper]

She's committed to the CCAO on July 24th. They also raised the purse to 500K. So hopefully it will draw some of the other top 3yo fillies and give her a really good test at 3.

[Redboard]

Sunday race. I'll be there. Opening weekend is a blast.

[ronsmac]

She's committed to the CCAO on July 24th. They also raised the purse to 500K. So hopefully it will draw some of the other top 3yo fillies and give her a really good test at 3.I'm a little disappointed. I wanted to see her against older horses at Deleware.

[cj]

I'm a little disappointed. I wanted to see her against older horses at Deleware.

At a mile and a quarter? Why would they do that?

[ronsmac]

At a mile and a quarter? Why would they do that?
Why not?

[cj]

Why not?


Well that is a pretty big jump, distance and older. IMO it would probably be an easier race but you could never convince the connections of that.

[classhandicapper]

I'm a little disappointed. I wanted to see her against older horses at Deleware.

She hasn't even faced the best of her own division yet this year. She'll get her chance to take on older if she cleans out the 3yo filly division. I'm looking forward to seeing her draw into a field with a lot of quality speed so she's pressed early and then again late. Not her fault at all, but the CA division wasn't good enough to even make her run. If she's actually tested, we might see something truly extraordinary. :eek:

[Donttellmeshowme]

At a mile and a quarter? Why would they do that?



Well to see if she can handle older horses for one thing. Could lead to more options with her.

[cj]

Well to see if she can handle older horses for one thing. Could lead to more options with her.

Those options will come soon enough.

[Tom]

$$$ first.
What else makes sense?

[dilanesp]

Well that is a pretty big jump, distance and older. IMO it would probably be an easier race but you could never convince the connections of that.

Running 3 year olds against older early in the year is highly underrated. You get a big weight break.Lots of 3 year olds won the Met Mile when it was on Memorial Day, we've had 3 year olds come out here and win the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, a couple of 3 year olds even won the Hollywood Gold Cup back in the day (including the stakes record holder), etc.

[ronsmac]

Well that is a pretty big jump, distance and older. IMO it would probably be an easier race but you could never convince the connections of that.I know it's easier to run against 3yo fillies at Saratoga, but I'd really get excited about her against older and 1 1/4m. It's not like the older fillies have a lot if any 1 1/4 mile experience. Plus her TFUS figures say she would win. Lol.

[ronsmac]

She hasn't even faced the best of her own division yet this year. She'll get her chance to take on older if she cleans out the 3yo filly division. I'm looking forward to seeing her draw into a field with a lot of quality speed so she's pressed early and then again late. Not her fault at all, but the CA division wasn't good enough to even make her run. If she's actually tested, we might see something truly extraordinary. :eek:She was crushing Land over Sea who did very well against the eastern fillies. She crushed Rachel's Valentina last year who was 2nd at Keeneland. Let's go bigger and better. The owner said he was considering Deleware. Of course that may have been a ploy to get Saratoga to bump their purse. If he truly wasn't considering the Deleware race then I guess he's just a liar.

[ultracapper]

Delaware

[SuperPickle]

I'm a little disappointed. I wanted to see her against older horses at Deleware.

She wasn't considered for the Del Cap. She was considered for the Del OAKS which is this weekend.

If the purse of the Del Oaks was still $500K I'm convinced he'd have sent her there since Porter is huge Delaware Park supporter.

I was really hoping he'd go Delaware Oaks then the Alabama. I thought the extra 8 days between The Delaware race and the Alabama would have swung him.

It would have been nice to see her race in the Mid-Atlantic, then the Alabama then two against older mares.

However here's the kicker...

I doubt Jerry would trainer her up to the Distaff off the Alabama. So his only two choices are the the race at Santa Anita the last weekend of September or the Cotillion at Parx which I believe is the weekend before.

I wonder if Porter is willing to take on Beholder before the Breeders Cup or if he ducks Beholder and goes back east for a million dollars.

[the little guy]

She wasn't considered for the Del Cap. She was considered for the Del OAKS which is this weekend.

If the purse of the Del Oaks was still $500K I'm convinced he'd have sent her there since Porter is huge Delaware Park supporter.

I was really hoping he'd go Delaware Oaks then the Alabama. I thought the extra 8 days between The Delaware race and the Alabama would have swung him.

It would have been nice to see her race in the Mid-Atlantic, then the Alabama then two against older mares.

However here's the kicker...

I doubt Jerry would trainer her up to the Distaff off the Alabama. So his only two choices are the the race at Santa Anita the last weekend of September or the Cotillion at Parx which I believe is the weekend before.

I wonder if Porter is willing to take on Beholder before the Breeders Cup or if he ducks Beholder and goes back east for a million dollars.

No, they said they were considering running her in the $750K Delaware Cap vs older horses.

They have also already said they are pointing for the Cotillion.

[SuperPickle]

No, they said they were considering running her in the $750K Delaware Cap vs older horses.

They have also already said they are pointing for the Cotillion.

So does that mean no Alabama? The Alabama is August 20th and the Cotillion is September 17th? Would they race in both or skip the Alabama?

[the little guy]

So does that mean no Alabama? The Alabama is August 20th and the Cotillion is September 17th? Would they race in both or skip the Alabama?

She is running in the Alabama.

[ronsmac]

DelawareMy bad.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I am really looking forward to this. Opening weekend gets a decent crowd, but this coupled with the hat giveaway that day should have the place pumping. I am counting down the days to the meet.

[classhandicapper]

I have my hotel reservations and tickets. Hoping to see something special. :ThmbUp:

[SuperPickle]

She is running in the Alabama.

They're going to try and squeeze in three more races before the Distaff. You can't say Rick Porter is not sporting.

I'm already curious if she stays at Saratoga in-between starts. I think if Baffert could have done it all over again with AP he'd have sent him from the Haskell to Saratoga rather than go back and forth.

[cj]

Running 3 year olds against older early in the year is highly underrated. You get a big weight break. Lots of 3 year olds won the Met Mile when it was on Memorial Day, we've had 3 year olds come out here and win the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, a couple of 3 year olds even won the Hollywood Gold Cup back in the day (including the stakes record holder), etc.

I agree, I said already IMO it would be an easier race. But horsemen these days are not going to do that. When is the last time a 3yo ran in the Met? They don't know what they are missing.

[the little guy]

While I agree that connections should sometimes consider the Met with 3YOs, the big weight break argument is pretty dubious as very few jockeys can make the low weight assignments, and thus the 3YOs would not be likely to take advantage of an assigned low weight.

[classhandicapper]

The gap between 3yo fillies and older fillies tends to be less than the gap between 3yo colts and older colts in the early and even middle months of the year. I'm not sure if that goes into the thinking of horsemen, but that's what my data shows. I think it really comes down to the quality of the 3yo you have, the quality of the older division in the race you are considering, and the purses.

I would have run in the Alabama. It seems like a more logical progression for her based on division/distance. I'm glad NYRA helped secure her for that race. IMO, this is a win/win. I can't wait to see her in person.

[dilanesp]

While I agree that connections should sometimes consider the Met with 3YOs, the big weight break argument is pretty dubious as very few jockeys can make the low weight assignments, and thus the 3YOs would not be likely to take advantage of an assigned low weight.

John Velazquez made 110 on Honour and Glory in 1996.

Mike Smith made 110 on Holy Bull in 1994.

Julio Pezua made 109 on Dixie Brass in 1992.

This doesn't look like it has been a concern in the past.

[Tom]

Once every 8 years, last one 20 years ago.
Yup.

Sounds like no concern.

[dilanesp]

Once every 8 years, last one 20 years ago.
Yup.

Sounds like no concern.

The last one 20 years ago is exactly the discussion we are having. How many 3 year olds have even run in the race in recent years? Back when 3 year olds were entered, they sometimes won it with light weight.

[Redboard]

She can always run the Del Cap next year, and the year after that(assuming Del Park will still be solvent) .
:)

[the little guy]

John Velazquez made 110 on Honour and Glory in 1996.

Mike Smith made 110 on Holy Bull in 1994.

Julio Pezua made 109 on Dixie Brass in 1992.

This doesn't look like it has been a concern in the past.


With all due respect, this is pretty dopey. What weight Johnny V or Mike Smith may have made over 20 years ago is completely irrelevant ( and what weight Julio Pezua EVER may have made is even sillier ).

It's OK that I made a good point that you didn't think of. You didn't have to embarrass yourself trying to discount it ( not that I didn't enjoy it ).

[dilanesp]

With all due respect, this is pretty dopey. What weight Johnny V or Mike Smith may have made over 20 years ago is completely irrelevant ( and what weight Julio Pezua EVER may have made is even sillier ).

It's OK that I made a good point that you didn't think of. You didn't have to embarrass yourself trying to discount it ( not that I didn't enjoy it ).

So your contention is there are NO jockeys riding now who can get down to 110, even using the sweatbox?

You are being hostile towards me, but you aren't actually making any sense.

[classhandicapper]

I would have run in the Alabama..

I meant CCAO.

[PaceAdvantage]

So your contention is there are NO jockeys riding now who can get down to 110, even using the sweatbox?Nobody who's worth a damn, probably.

[the little guy]

So your contention is there are NO jockeys riding now who can get down to 110, even using the sweatbox?

You are being hostile towards me, but you aren't actually making any sense.

No riders that would be on top horses.

I'm not hostile at all. You're an endless source of amusement.

[dilanesp]

No riders that would be on top horses.

I'm not hostile at all. You're an endless source of amusement.

Mockery is a form of hostility.

And UNJUSTIFIED mockery is definitely a form of hostility, the little guy.

Johnny Longden rode at 115 and got down to 110 in the sweatbox for the 1950 Santa Anita Handicap (which he won). Basically you are claiming that no good stakes rider in America weighs 115 or less. That just can't be right.

[SuperPickle]

I agree, I said already IMO it would be an easier race. But horsemen these days are not going to do that. When is the last time a 3yo ran in the Met? They don't know what they are missing.

CJ, as a guy who's spent a lot of time at Delaware and goes there every year I got to strongly disagree with you. Yes the field would have been easier from a speed figure standpoint but both the Delaware Oaks and Handicap are notorious for heavy favorites going down. If you go back and look at the winners of The Del Cap the last 20 years there's A LOT of long shots.

I believe one of Larry Jone's fillies lost it last year as a heavy favorite. I can think of a couple others in the last decade. Even Harve de Grace almost lost in a super weak field.

That track is notorious for horses shipping in and not handling it. It's a huge advantage to the horses who train over it. Between that, older for the first time, a mile and a quarter, the 2,000 mile ship, and the second time off the illness she'd have a lot going against her. And if she won she'd mostly beat nobody and even if she did by 20 no one would be super impressed. All risk with little reward.

[the little guy]

Mockery is a form of hostility.

And UNJUSTIFIED mockery is definitely a form of hostility, the little guy.

Johnny Longden rode at 115 and got down to 110 in the sweatbox for the 1950 Santa Anita Handicap (which he won). Basically you are claiming that no good stakes rider in America weighs 115 or less. That just can't be right.



At the end of the day, I made a reasonable point ( maybe not the all-time most brilliant observation but at the very least "reasonable" ) yet in your haste to knock it, and thus not even give it any serious consideration, you made a few irrelevant points ( and you continue to with the above lunacy ).

What Johnny Longdon did in 1950 is so irrelevant to this discussion that I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are joking. If so...good one!!!

[cj]

CJ, as a guy who's spent a lot of time at Delaware and goes there every year I got to strongly disagree with you. Yes the field would have been easier from a speed figure standpoint but both the Delaware Oaks and Handicap are notorious for heavy favorites going down. If you go back and look at the winners of The Del Cap the last 20 years there's A LOT of long shots.

I believe one of Larry Jone's fillies lost it last year as a heavy favorite. I can think of a couple others in the last decade. Even Harve de Grace almost lost in a super weak field.

That track is notorious for horses shipping in and not handling it. It's a huge advantage to the horses who train over it. Between that, older for the first time, a mile and a quarter, the 2,000 mile ship, and the second time off the illness she'd have a lot going against her. And if she won she'd mostly beat nobody and even if she did by 20 no one would be super impressed. All risk with little reward.

Those are good points, I was talking more in general terms about 3yo trying older. That said, I don't think much of the older FM crop. I'd be more worried about the surface and the distance (as you note) than the competition.

[dilanesp]

At the end of the day, I made a reasonable point ( maybe not the all-time most brilliant observation but at the very least "reasonable" ) yet in your haste to knock it, and thus not even give it any serious consideration, you made a few irrelevant points ( and you continue to with the above lunacy ).

What Johnny Longdon did in 1950 is so irrelevant to this discussion that I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are joking. If so...good one!!!

So the sweatbox, which was around in 1950, got un-invented between then and now?

It's possible for jocks to take a few pounds off for a big race. Indeed, I assume that at least some of the jocks I mentioned (especially Pezua) probably did when they rode 3 year olds in the Met Mile.

If someone enters a 3 year old in the Met Mile in the future, they will figure out a way to make the weight.

I think the reason we don't see 3 year olds in the Met Mile anymore (or other big relatively early in the season stakes races) is because trainers are extremely conservative about risking any sort of a loss with a good horse now. Not because nobody can make weight. Which is very sad.

[thespaah]

While I agree that connections should sometimes consider the Met with 3YOs, the big weight break argument is pretty dubious as very few jockeys can make the low weight assignments, and thus the 3YOs would not be likely to take advantage of an assigned low weight.
Is the Met a still a Handicap where weights are assigned? Or written in Stakes conditions, weight for age? Or allowance conditions?

[cj]

Is the Met a still a Handicap where weights are assigned? Or written in Stakes conditions, weight for age? Or allowance conditions?

It is still a handicap but since Frosted carried 120 as highweight I'm not sure what the point of that is. This is probably another reason 3yos don't enter. They aren't going to find a guy that can carry 102.

[the little guy]

I think the reason we don't see 3 year olds in the Met Mile anymore (or other big relatively early in the season stakes races) is because trainers are extremely conservative about risking any sort of a loss with a good horse now. Not because nobody can make weight. Which is very sad.

When did I say this? I said the weight break isn't as relevant now because riders won't be able to make the low weight. That continues to be true. I never said this was WHY we don't see 3YOs in the Met.

You were wrong. It's OK. It happens to all of us.

[cj]

When did I say this? I said the weight break isn't as relevant now because riders won't be able to make the low weight. That continues to be true. I never said this was WHY we don't see 3YOs in the Met.

You were wrong. It's OK. It happens to all of us.


Also, like I mentioned, the highweights are so low it almost rules it out. I had forgotten horses don't carry any real weight anymore.

[the little guy]

Also, like I mentioned, the highweights are so low it almost rules it out. I had forgotten horses don't carry any real weight anymore.

Also true. They won't get the spread they need.

[Fager Fan]

Mockery is a form of hostility.

And UNJUSTIFIED mockery is definitely a form of hostility, the little guy.

Johnny Longden rode at 115 and got down to 110 in the sweatbox for the 1950 Santa Anita Handicap (which he won). Basically you are claiming that no good stakes rider in America weighs 115 or less. That just can't be right.

Isn't the only pertinent question if Smith can make weight? They're not going to take Smith off just to run in this race.

Weights seem arbitrary anyway. There are small horse breeds who can carry much more weight than the larger TB. It has to do with how the horses are built. Then among TBs, weights are assigned as if the horses are of the same size and weight-carrying ability when they're obviously not.

[Fager Fan]

CJ, as a guy who's spent a lot of time at Delaware and goes there every year I got to strongly disagree with you. Yes the field would have been easier from a speed figure standpoint but both the Delaware Oaks and Handicap are notorious for heavy favorites going down. If you go back and look at the winners of The Del Cap the last 20 years there's A LOT of long shots.

I believe one of Larry Jone's fillies lost it last year as a heavy favorite. I can think of a couple others in the last decade. Even Harve de Grace almost lost in a super weak field.

That track is notorious for horses shipping in and not handling it. It's a huge advantage to the horses who train over it. Between that, older for the first time, a mile and a quarter, the 2,000 mile ship, and the second time off the illness she'd have a lot going against her. And if she won she'd mostly beat nobody and even if she did by 20 no one would be super impressed. All risk with little reward.

I thought Havre de Grace did lose by a nose, and to the top filly Blind Luck.

[thespaah]

It is still a handicap but since Frosted carried 120 as highweight I'm not sure what the point of that is. This is probably another reason 3yos don't enter. They aren't going to find a guy that can carry 102.
Thanks.
I have seen over the last three decades that weights in graded stakes are for the most part coming down. 126 is about it..
Now, low weights were pretty common in these events. I looked back at some of my old programs and saw where horses were carrying under 110 lbs.

[cj]

I thought Havre de Grace did lose by a nose, and to the top filly Blind Luck.

She did come to think of it, couldn't have been much of an upset. I think she beat her the year prior in the Del Oaks too.