Place Betting

[sq764]

I consider myself somewhat of a longshot player (7/1 or better), and I have always been one to bet a horse to win and place. I hate to watch my 20-1 shot run second and pay $18.00 to place when I only have him to win. With that being said, I am curious what the thoughts were on show betting. Over the long run, if you hit 15% of your horses at 7/1 or better, would you end up making out better by wagering the $20 to win or the $10 to win and place?


Scott

[GameTheory]

In general, show betting on longshots is a bad idea. If a couple of low priced horses are also in-the-money, you might only get $2.20, which is an even worse feeling than just losing a win bet on a 20-1 shot.

Mark Cramer's "exacta as place bet" has some merit, however. Instead of a place bet on your long-shot, bet in the bottom slot in the exacta with the favorite on top (legit favorites only -- if favorite not legit just bet to place). 8/1 and up horses will usually come in 2nd about twice as many times as they'll come in 1st, with the favorite winning about a third of those times. In the long run, you'll usually see more profits this way then just betting to place, but you'll cash less tickets.

Of course, you'll want to go back and look at all those place bets you've made to verify this...


GameTheory

[Bob Harris]

Scott,

There is no doubt you will do better with betting "win"only...you may find that your place betting is even showing a net loss when betting the type of horses you do. I hate it when I get nipped at the wire too but if you actually log the place prices in your records,
I think you'll find it doesn't happen as often as our minds think it does. I rarely have profits in the place hole at the end of the month...even in the months where the win ROI is abnormally high.

The only explanation I have for this is that when a person plays in the odds range which you and I do, they really are projecting that the horse will move up several lengths from his last race or two...when we are right, we get well rewarded. When we are wrong, our horse is as likely to finish dead last as he is to finish second (I know Mark Cramer feels differently but I can only deal with my own reality).

Players who wager at lower odds levels are usually dealing with horses with better form...their place betting experience may be completely different then mine.

Bob

[cj]

I agree, the place betting doesn't work for me. It seems if I am right about a horse he wins, and if I'm wrong, he is not second either. It could be that I bet mostly horses in the 4-1 to 10-1 range, sometimes longer.

CJ

[Dave Schwartz]

Scott,

A suggestion: Keep records for awhile and decide if your place bets are profitable.

But remember to not simply look at ALL place bets. As cjmilkowski said, you may find that you collect most of your place bets when the horse whens. In that case, you may not want to make place wagers at all.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[sq764]

Yeah, records would be a good idea, huh?? :-)

I just need to figure out if the place bet is used as the win bet, taking the difference in the additional win bet payout minus the place bet payouts when my horse runs second only..

Make sense?

[Dave Schwartz]

Yup.

[Tom]

I love place bets. My method is one unit to win, three units to place. I use this when eating two horses in a race is not worth it. Or if I have a third choice horse going of at nice odds. LAst Saturday at Aqu, I really liked a shipper that fit the profile of a NW1 developing horse. He ran second and paid $6.50, I got $19.50 for $8 -not bad. Flat betting would get me nothing.

Tom

[Whitehos]

SQ764
Check that out on odds on, legit. favorites.
Its not fun and exciting but it buy me some groceries.
Whitehos

[andicap]

Originally posted by Tom
I love place bets. My method is one unit to win, three units to place. I use this when eating two horses in a race is not worth it. Or if I have a third choice horse going of at nice odds. LAst Saturday at Aqu, I really liked a shipper that fit the profile of a NW1 developing horse. He ran second and paid $6.50, I got $19.50 for $8 -not bad. Flat betting would get me nothing.

Tom

Tom, if you got $19.50 for an $8 bet you got ripped off!

[ranchwest]

Andi,

I think only 6 was to place, 2 was to win, so 3 times 6.50=19.50.

[Lefty]

1 unit to win 3 to place. If the win bets produce a profit then most of your money 3/4ths is in the wrong hole. If win bets don't make a profit then why not drop them altogether?

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Lefty
1 unit to win 3 to place. If the win bets produce a profit then most of your money 3/4ths is in the wrong hole.

Risk, I would guess. If he bet to win only he wouldn't be betting $8, probably $4 or so. Since he will collect more often, there is less chance of losing streaks. If I bet $8 a race and make 10% on my money and someone else bets $4 a race and makes 15% on their money, I'm better off. And, yes, the other person could start betting $8 win, but he will have longer losing streaks so may be betting too much to keep his bankroll safe.

[ranchwest]

I think part of what a person must decide is how much they can withstand in short term losses. Some people bet Place to hedge. Even if it loses overall, it may level out the days where everything runs second. Some people may need that, either financially or psychologically, even with the overall loss. As long as their bottom line is on the plus side, I guess it is a matter of whatever works.

[sq764]

Perfect example today in 1st at Delta Downs. Liked the #5, he got beat by a length by the 2nd choice, had $10 to W/P on him. He paid $4.80 to place. So ended up profiting $4 out of the deal..

I think it works for me because I have a more than usual amount of horses run second.. I will keep stats this week and see for sure..


Scott

[andicap]

Originally posted by ranchwest
Andi,

I think only 6 was to place, 2 was to win, so 3 times 6.50=19.50.


D'oh!!!