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View Full Version : Guaranteed Pick 4-Ptck 6 etc.


aaron
07-04-2016, 11:56 AM
I find tracks announcing guaranteed Pick 4 and Pick 6 pools to really be an insult to the player. First of all, the only advantage to these pools to the player is if,they don't reach the guaranteed amount,which they almost always reach. In essence,what the tracks are doing is trying to lure the player to bet a sequence,he/she may not even find handicap able.
Why would any bettor,bet a sequence unless they felt an edge ?

johnhannibalsmith
07-04-2016, 12:25 PM
I'd say that the only way it is conceivably any sort of insult is that it accuses players of not knowing when the pools for that wager are going to be at peak volume. And that's not much of an insult since a greater percentage of players probably can figure it out subconsciously than can industry workers not in the mutuel department or the handicapping show. More like marketing. Hey, hello, we're going to handle a half mil at least today in the pick four if you like big pools and want to take a shot. Sorta like that.

Exotic1
07-04-2016, 12:45 PM
I find tracks announcing guaranteed Pick 4 and Pick 6 pools to really be an insult to the player. First of all, the only advantage to these pools to the player is if,they don't reach the guaranteed amount,which they almost always reach. In essence,what the tracks are doing is trying to lure the player to bet a sequence,he/she may not even find handicap able.
Why would any bettor,bet a sequence unless they felt an edge ?

Let's take two examples. Make that three examples.

1) You construct and bet a mid-priced ticket that includes a mix of favorites, mid-priced and some longshot odds. Your ticket wins. In a small pool of 5k (to illustrate the point) your ticket may be shared by a few people and you come home with zilcho, nada.

2) In a nice mid sized pool of say 50k (after takeout), the same winning ticket that you just constructed has a chance of paying let's say $500-5k (to illustrate a point) b/c of all the other combinations that are in the pool. Other players may stick to a short priced strategy, other players may include a spread on some races. So there are many more non-winning tickets.

3) In a large pool, again many more combinations of non-winning tickets. If favorites win the entire sequence you can still win something if the ticket is priced correctly. In addition, there is a chance for even a low priced ticket to be one of only a few winners. Or you could be an only, it can happen.

You obviously don't have to play into these pools and the tracks aren't twisting our arms to play into any pool.

Me, I'm still trying to hit a p3 that's properly constructed.

Big pools are a players friend. IMO.

Donttellmeshowme
07-04-2016, 12:49 PM
I find tracks announcing guaranteed Pick 4 and Pick 6 pools to really be an insult to the player. First of all, the only advantage to these pools to the player is if,they don't reach the guaranteed amount,which they almost always reach. In essence,what the tracks are doing is trying to lure the player to bet a sequence,he/she may not even find handicap able.
Why would any bettor,bet a sequence unless they felt an edge ?




Discipline...

Pensacola Pete
07-04-2016, 03:05 PM
One of the reasons that the guaranteed pools reach their minimum is because the players know that the pool size is guaranteed. If the guarantee wasn't there, the pool might not be half as big as it is.

Case in point: Palm Beach greyhounds. Their Pick 4 pools, races 9-12, averaged about $3,500. Then they had a guaranteed $5,000 pool for matinees, which run every day. The Pick 4 for matinees averages around $11,000. They don't guarantee a pool for evening cards, which are on Fridays and Saturdays. Those Pick 4 pools average about $3,500.

If you have an Amwager account, check out any Friday or Saturday; matinee and evening, race 9 (or 12) and see.

burnsy
07-05-2016, 11:58 AM
I find tracks announcing guaranteed Pick 4 and Pick 6 pools to really be an insult to the player. First of all, the only advantage to these pools to the player is if,they don't reach the guaranteed amount,which they almost always reach. In essence,what the tracks are doing is trying to lure the player to bet a sequence,he/she may not even find handicap able.
Why would any bettor,bet a sequence unless they felt an edge ?


That's the secret to winning at any gaming activity. DO NOT BET UNLESS YOU LIKE THE CONDITIONS OF THE WAGER. When I post my selections, that's pretty much what I'm betting that day. I may leave out 1 to 2 races but not more than that. I only play the sequence plays LATE in the card....pic 3's and 4's. I don't "chase" the lower class races. If I have to go more than 3 or 4 deep in any leg, I ain't playing it. Although, I will occasionally bet an "ALL" in one leg if its a huge day and pool with some crazy over bet horse. My two biggest tickets ever were when Smarty Jones and Big Brown lost because I went "ALL" in the Belmont leg. The bigger pool is always an advantage for the player, especially if you go off the "beaten path" as I just mentioned.

People should worry about the pool size but I only bet the major tracks anyway so its not a worry.

The most important thing of your entire post is betting when you feel you have the advantage. Notice I never worry about take out, pool size (because I only bet big tracks) or half the crap people carry on about. Why? Because I know the type races I am good at beating and I stick to that. I don't use computers or programs so I have to know the track, the players and bias (if any). I never bet more than 2 tracks at once and most times only 1 track. Everything people worry about is useless if you can't construct winning tickets at a decent clip and crushing big ones when your bombs come in. How people claim to be playing all these races and tracks and then winning is beyond me......because its extremely difficult to pick so many races. Like I said, I strictly handicap by the PP's and knowing the track so I may be more limited than some, but I do fine. The best thing to do is ignore "fluff" like "guaranteed" and go for your best sequence according to you. I love the Stakes and Allowance sequences so those big day "guarantees" are fine by me. But I could really care less, I know the pool is huge, just give me my piece....... :) The bigger the better.

castaway01
07-05-2016, 02:41 PM
I find tracks announcing guaranteed Pick 4 and Pick 6 pools to really be an insult to the player. First of all, the only advantage to these pools to the player is if,they don't reach the guaranteed amount,which they almost always reach. In essence,what the tracks are doing is trying to lure the player to bet a sequence,he/she may not even find handicap able.
Why would any bettor,bet a sequence unless they felt an edge ?

Announced guarantees drive money into the pools. Big pools are better for both the track and the horseplayer. Not a big mystery or an insult.

EMD4ME
07-05-2016, 04:25 PM
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That's the secret to winning at any gaming activity. DO NOT BET UNLESS YOU LIKE THE CONDITIONS OF THE WAGER. When I post my selections, that's pretty much what I'm betting that day. I may leave out 1 to 2 races but not more than that. I only play the sequence plays LATE in the card....pic 3's and 4's. I don't "chase" the lower class races. If I have to go more than 3 or 4 deep in any leg, I ain't playing it. Although, I will occasionally bet an "ALL" in one leg if its a huge day and pool with some crazy over bet horse. My two biggest tickets ever were when Smarty Jones and Big Brown lost because I went "ALL" in the Belmont leg. The bigger pool is always an advantage for the player, especially if you go off the "beaten path" as I just mentioned.

People should worry about the pool size but I only bet the major tracks anyway so its not a worry.

The most important thing of your entire post is betting when you feel you have the advantage. Notice I never worry about take out, pool size (because I only bet big tracks) or half the crap people carry on about. Why? Because I know the type races I am good at beating and I stick to that. I don't use computers or programs so I have to know the track, the players and bias (if any). I never bet more than 2 tracks at once and most times only 1 track. Everything people worry about is useless if you can't construct winning tickets at a decent clip and crushing big ones when your bombs come in. How people claim to be playing all these races and tracks and then winning is beyond me......because its extremely difficult to pick so many races. Like I said, I strictly handicap by the PP's and knowing the track so I may be more limited than some, but I do fine. The best thing to do is ignore "fluff" like "guaranteed" and go for your best sequence according to you. I love the Stakes and Allowance sequences so those big day "guarantees" are fine by me. But I could really care less, I know the pool is huge, just give me my piece....... :) The bigger the better.

I agree Burnsy. I can't keep up with 2 tracks between April and Sep as NYRA and EMD are running.

It is extremely important to know all the ins and outs of the track you are wagering on. I wish EMD had guaranteed pools. I love the NYRA guarantees as it guarantees that you are playing into real pools.

Now, don't get me wrong, I do chase small pools quite often but yes, it IS EXTREMELY annoying when the parlay is $12,000 and the entire pool was $3500.

There are pros and cons but I would take the guaranteed pool every day of the week.

Track Phantom
07-05-2016, 09:20 PM
I find tracks announcing guaranteed Pick 4 and Pick 6 pools to really be an insult to the player. First of all, the only advantage to these pools to the player is if,they don't reach the guaranteed amount,which they almost always reach. In essence,what the tracks are doing is trying to lure the player to bet a sequence,he/she may not even find handicap able.
Why would any bettor,bet a sequence unless they felt an edge ?
This makes no sense to me at all. Of all of the things to be annoyed with, this isn't very high on the list, in my opinion.
1. You are not required to bet into any pool 2. Guaranteed pools are only there to encourage large tickets (so the big players know they are not betting into a negative situation).

I can't understand why this is an issue.

Poindexter
07-06-2016, 04:31 AM
While I cannot speak for op, my hunch is that his annoyance is with the fact that people are responding to the track marketing and constantly pushing something that offers little to no benefit to the player, yet it works and drives more money into the pools. For instance SA, can have no guarantee and have a $400,000 late pick 4 pool or push the guarantee in peoples faces and drive the betting up to say $575,000. Very unlikely that your individual payout is going to vary much whether the pool is $400,000 or $575,000. It is deceptive promotion that works-largely due to an unsophisticated public.

MonmouthParkJoe
07-06-2016, 05:57 AM
It is just that, effective marketing. I dont find it deceptive at all, big numbers and the idea of huge scores sells. The guarantees are based on historical handle figures they have had in the past with a couple small twists. Yes, you do know the pool will be large but its not like with a little research, such as looking up the total pools on the equibase historical charts for the same day the previous year, you can find on average what these pools will be.

In the odd occasion that a guaranteed pool isnt hit and the track has to make up the difference, they still get the takeout on the difference they have to put in :)

Does it work, sure it does otherwise they wouldnt have them. Are they a detriment to us horseplayers, not at all.