False Favorites. Care to add to this list?

[fishorsechess]

False Favorite Eliminations

1) Big class drop
2) Horse is going against the track bias of today's race.
3) A horse that will be involved in a speed dual with
lesser horse.
4) No form
5) Stakes horse in allowance(Mitchell)
6)........care to add to this list?

[kenwoodallpromos]

The trick is knowing if the items on the list result in too big a rick. some are not automatic; like the big class drop or alw for stakes horses.
If you can always properly assess the risks, great!
I will add outside post for an EP type.

[BETKING]

(7) Two wins in a roe (no break between races)
(8) Two 2nds in a roe (no breaks)
(9) A hard win after a long layoff
(10) Run its highest Speed Fig in the last 5 races.

[Tuffmug]

Maiden Special winner going in a 1X with top LR Beyer but inferior internal fractions.

[andicap]

Closer in a paceless race.

[Jeff P]

A while ago I discovered an odd use for Bris Prime Power: Using it to spot races with vulnerable favorites. Here are the results of a few queries I ran, $2.00 to win on the race favorite only, broken out by rank for Bris Prime Power:

DIRT SPRINTS (Approx 8100 races)

Prime
Power. WIN
Rank.. PCT... ROI
------ ----- -----
1..... .3940 .8789
2..... .3197 .8204
3..... .2721 .7683
4..... .2561 .7236
5..... .2103 .6040
6..... .2670 .7780
7..... .2745 .8059
8..... .3099 .8782
9..... .2558 .7535
------------------
ALL... .3484 .8359



DIRT ROUTES (APPROX 4500 RACES)

Prime
Power. WIN
Rank.. PCT... ROI
------ ----- -----
1..... .3837 .8596
2..... .3145 .8043
3..... .3041 .8537
4..... .2622 .7365
5..... .2806 .8173
6..... .1667 .4563
7..... .1463 .4927
8..... .0968 .3258
9..... .1765 .6471
------------------
ALL... .3416 .8242

[KingChas]

A cheaper claimer coming off a personal high or peak BSF.That was a big winner(5+ lgths).That when you check pp's he always bounced after win and never won 2 consecutive races.I'm refering to older-cheaper horses here.I find it hard to believe a lot of claiming horses coming off a win no matter how hard or easy it was are favs again next out.Regardless of class drop ,rise or same conditions.If you review the PP's you can easily see if the horse can string wins or never does.A lot of these horses make for unders in exotics.

[Skanoochies]

One of my fav. go against wagers is a first time starter who has been working bullets in the A.M. and is entered in a maiden claimer. Why take a chance in losing a horse when you don`t know what you have got?:confused:

[trying2win]

How about the horse who has a bad habit of finishing 2nd or 3rd, but rarely wins?

T2W

"About the time we can make ends meet, somebody moves the ends.
- Herbert Hoover

[Tee]

This is a copy & paste from a post of mine regarding this topic some time ago on another forum.

Edited Version

The claiming winner returning at the same level, definitely a play against if his/her figures says he or she can compete @ a higher level.

Horses who are in sharp winning form who are claimed by trainers known for their skill in the claiming game dropping in class.

Mis-interpreting a horse exiting a so called "key race" & betting down to favoritism.

A horse winning with ease in short fields w/o really being tested. More "bounces" occur for this reason than horses coming off of big efforts.

A horse trying something for the first time. I have beaten many favorites trying a route of ground for the 1st time by horses with experience @ the distance. Happens quite a bit in maiden races.

Horses drawing posts in races where it is near to impossible to win from.

Horses dropping down the claiming ladder & being bet every time.

First time starter is bred top & bottom to get a route sometime in their future, but is bet down as the favorite going 3/4's. Not a 100% angle, but will never put a horseplayer in the hole.

Cheap claimers who have rattled off a few wins in a row. They will lose & most likely as the favorite. Can't hold that form forever.

Here's one that coincides with the trying something new angle. Horses who close a ton of ground in sprints who are expected to do even better in routes that are bet as the favorite.

Horses who are bet as the favorite after shipping across the country or across the ocean & winning in their 1st outing.

The out of the blue huge Beyer Figure or Thorograph fig or whatever fig. Horses rarely repeat these figures, but bettors get real high on these types.

[charleslanger]

Jockey off, while still riding other horses for stable that day.

High % or 'name' trainer dropping a stakes or allowance horse into a claimer for the very first time, and the horse shows close-up or in-money finishes at those previous higher levels.

But I'd also wish to add something different:

that for most(if not all) of the factors we can come up with, there are / can be notable exceptions: if enough counter-balancing reasons / factors are present, that would negate the elimination of the horse.

We can likely name a few exceptions / examples for just about each factor submitted: of course, that wouldn't be the point.....
.

[JackS]

A high priced MSW FTS shipping into a relative minor track from a major track.

A MSW horse lightly raced as a two year old who misses the entire 3yo season and today is starting as a MCL as a 4yo.

[Dan Montilion]

6 year old mare or older that has not won in two years.

Dan Montilion

[Fastracehorse]

Often run big first-time out.

But, it is unlikely they will repeat that effort 2nd-time out.

fffastt

[BIG HIT]

With a 5% win average or less for one or the other or both

[Valuist]

Teeitup's list is pretty solid. Here's a few more:

1. Horse who makes up many lengths because the race falls apart late.

2. Speed horse who ran well due to setting a slow pace.

3. A turf horse coming off a ground saving trip on both turns and had a favorable pace scenario

4. A horse that has EVER bled thru Lasix. They should never ever be bet again, let alone favored.

5. A horse who makes a bad post parade appearence; walking short, flat tail, unshiny coat, washed out in cool weather.

6. A horse who logically should be 6-5 but is hanging around 5-2 or 2-1. Usually a very bad sign.

7. Trainer does not saddle the horse him/herself.

8. A horse coming off a win or second but was claimed and goes to a far inferior barn. I find this one comes into play almost every day.

[Tom]

Jeff P....off topic, sort of, but with PP favs winning 38-39% of time, seems you could do something with exactas here. Wonder what you would get part wheeling the PP fav over a subset of other horses?

[Turf2Dirt]

6. A horse who logically should be 6-5 but is hanging around 5-2 or 2-1. Usually a very bad sign.

I use that angle and have seen few others mention it, some inexperienced handicappers will mistake that for "Value" and go hammer the horse, it takes a keen eye to separate "Value" from a horse that is cold for a reason.

[kenwoodallpromos]

How can you tell if a horse bled through lasix? Only if noted?

[Jeff P]

Jeff P....off topic, sort of, but with PP favs winning 38-39% of time, seems you could do something with exactas here. Wonder what you would get part wheeling the PP fav over a subset of other horses?

Tom,

I did a little research into that. Problem is that prime power favorites really tend to get hammered by the betting public these days. As a general rule, when they are part of the exacta, there's simply no value to be had even when they run second. They're simply overbet top and bottom.

I've had far better success in the situation where I've got some other contender that I think can win the race and simply betting that horse to win. In those races where I do actually beat a prime power favorite the win price generally results in a nice windfall.

The way I tend to use the figures I posted regarding prime power favorites is in adjusting my play or pass decision on other contenders that may exist in the race. I'm willing to take lower odds and bet a slightly higher amount when win betting contenders to beat weaker favorites and tend to require higher odds and bet a slightly lowered amount when win betting contenders to beat stronger favorites.

[Valuist]

Ken-

Occasionally you'll see it in the comments line in the DRF pps. But I would guess w/run of the mill claiming horses there's quite a few that bleed thru Lasix that we never find out about. The other sources would be articles in the DRF, which sometimes mention it. Of course if you know any trainers, if they offer that info to you its invaluable.

[DeoVolente]

Horse coming off one year layoff and is the favorite.

[Valuist]

I love playing against horses who've been off just a little over a year. I've seen newspaper handicappers say a comment like "off a solid 2nd back in May" referring to a horse that ran 2nd in May of 2003, not 2004.