Attainable results?

[GameTheory]

Hello,

Go to http://www.turfpedia.com and click on "Attainable Results". I'd like to get some reactions to this article (by James Quinn) from people who've lived it...

[smf]

JMHO,

Yet another example why I think Quinn (amongst others) spends more time writing articles, publishing books, cd's, etc than he does handicapping.

Like I say "JMHO", but that article's trash.

:) :)

[Bob Harris]

A friend of mine who has interviewed Quinn a couple of times on the radio told me that his method of betting was really selection oriented with a minimum acceptable odds requirement. He plays his top selection if the horse is 5/2 or longer, otherwise no bet.

If a player was playing his top selection only and was very selective about which races he bet into, he probably could drive those kind of win percentages if he was a damn good player. I think the biggest problem with that type of play is that you just don't get many wagers. Speculating on 15-20 horses a day and constantly turning over your bankroll makes a lot more sense to me.

[Lefty]

Yes, Quinn's action prob. very restricted. Tom Brohamer walked into a 5pm seminar of Sartin's one time and announced,"Between me and Jim Bradshow today we averaged betting 32 races
apiece. Jimmy bet 62 and I bet 2." Tom liked those short priced veritable "dead certs" too.

[Dick Schmidt]

Game,

I've been to the races many times with Jim, and I think the article accurately reflects his outlook on handicapping. He plays mostly his local SoCal tracks, attends the races every day and follows the better horses on the grounds, especially the maidens and developing 3-yos. He is the classic "class" handicapper.

For a while, he tried to broaden his play, and get more action. I watched Tom Brohamer try to teach him quick and dirty pace handicapping, but it just didn't take. Tom described it as the difference between hunting with a shotgun and a rifle. Jim is a sniper, taking his time and drawing a bead on a specific target. He makes two or three bets a day, cashes one or two and goes home happy, with money in his pocket. I learned from Tom (and others) to shoot from the hip, bet 40 or 50 races a day and cash 15 or 20 tickets. Seems to work out about the same.

His numbers are conservative, but reflect the reality Jim finds at the track. I'm sure many years he does better, as he is an insightful handicapper. He also is not afraid to express his opinion in amounts greater than $200. I think this is more a matter of personal style than anything else. Trying to win at the races and going against your natural tendencies will usually lead to disaster. To quote a long dead philosopher who's name I no longer remember: "Know Thyself."

Dick

[Lefty]

Dick, Tom must have taught him something because Quinn put out a fine(I thght)tape set on making Quirin style Pace and Speed numbers and how to make a variant.

[Dick Schmidt]

Lefty,

I never said Jim couldn't do it, just that it seems to be against his nature. Tom Brohamer could teach a doorknob to handicap (he did almost as well with me!) and Jim is a very bright guy with a long history of successful racing insights. I'm sure he uses pace and speed numbers quite successfully, he just tends to zero in on a few races and combine his numbers with his traditional class approach. At least that was what he was doing when I last saw him at the races. Since the internet and internet betting came along, I don't get out to the track much.

In no way is this a criticism so Jim Quinn's approach or ability. He is a wonderful, insightful handicapper, and I have used his maiden picks many times in Pick-3's. I was trying to explain how the numbers in the cited article reflect his individual way of going at the racetrack. Like every successful handicapper I have ever met, he has developed a handicapping and betting procedure that fits his personality.

Dick

[JimG]

Dick:

Brohamer is one who has universally been well regarded by various racing personalities. In your opinion, what sets him apart. And, last time you attended the races with him, what was his handicapping and betting approach. Is he a win bettor, exotics, or both? Thanks.


Jim

[Dick Schmidt]

JimG,

To put it simply, Tom Brohamer is a Handicapping God. Besides intelligence, hard work and attention to details, what really sets him apart from the rest of us is his phenomenal memory. He knew the trainer of every horse on the grounds, and would notice things like private sales that were never mentioned the Form. Occasionally he would mention a paceline that was more than 10 races ago and had thus fallen off the bottom of the form. Tom would still remember them. To top it off, he has wonderful insights into how a race will set up for every horse in the field. He once told me that a certain horse I liked might well be boxed in at the top of the stretch. Damn if it wasn’t pinned to the rail right at the top of the stretch. If he wasn't such a nice guy, I could easily hate him.

As for his approach, he is the quintessential pace handicapper. He makes his own pace and final time variants for SoCal and uses them superbly. He is mostly a win bettor, using one or two horses per race as his figs dictate. He occasionally bet an exacta, but was not a serious exotic bettor.

If you have any curiosity about pace handicapping and haven't read Tom's book Modern Pace Handicapping, do so at your first opportunity. A handicapping classic, it will give you a lot of insight into how Tom works a race. Like Beyer and Quirin, Brohamer belongs on every serious handicapper's shelf. He is simply the best.

Dick