The Handicapper’s NYRA Turf Dilemma

[Cratos]

Many handicappers attempt to transition their handicapping methodology from NYRA’s main dirt track to its turf tracks with just making “turf adjustments.”

That is okay, but adjustments should also be made for track configuration differences and rail settings.

Let’s compare the 6-12F distances (this example applies to all same distances which are run at both courses) at Belmont’s Inner Turf and Widener Turf Courses.

On the Inner Turf Course, the run from the start to the turn is 1,781.50 feet with a turn radius of 450 feet whereas on the Widener Course, the run from the start to the turn is 1,489.50 feet with a turn radius of 543 feet.

This is a difference of 292 feet between the distances from the start to the turn between the two courses at the same distance of 6-1/2F.

The other significant difference is the difference in the radii of 93 feet between the two courses for all distances run on either course.

If these differences aren’t enough, there is the added rail settings which in effect “stretch” each race course configuration.

Therefore the upshot of this comparison is that for the same distance run in the same final time given that the route of travel is the same, the Widener Course is more forgiving “work-wise” because of its larger radii; hence for the speed figure handicapper an adjustment should be made for side force impact.

[garyscpa]

Did you proofread this?

[Cratos]

d atDid you proofread this?
What are my mistakes; I am not adverse to being corrected.

[PhantomOnTour]

d at
What are my mistakes; I am not adverse to being corrected.
the first sentence...and...6.5f turf race?

[Cratos]

the first sentence...and...6.5f turf race?
First sentence rewritten
Many handicappers attempt to transition their handicapping methodology from NYRA’s main dirt track to its turf tracks by just making a surface “dirt-to-turf adjustment.” That adjustment solves only part of the problem; the other part is adjusting for the track configuration difference between the main track and either of the two turf tracks; in addition there should be adjustments made for the differences and rail settings between the two turf track configurations.

“6-12F distances should be 6-1/2F distance”

[the little guy]

There are no 6 1/2 Furlong races on turf at Belmont.

[PhantomOnTour]

There are no 6.5f turf races at NYRA tracks, unless you're including the run up, and maybe the true distance is closer to 6.5f than 6f...???

You are going to throw people off when you talk about races at distances that aren't even carded as being at those distances.

[Cratos]

There are no 6.5f turf races at NYRA tracks, unless you're including the run up, and maybe the true distance is closer to 6.5f than 6f...???

You are going to throw people off when you talk about races at distances that aren't even carded as being at those distances.
Okay I get your point and I erred in using the 6-1/2F distance in my example; using 6F with recalculation of the start distance difference at the 6F distance between the two turf courses will give the same or similar inference.

However what I find amazing is that I have yet to see a discussion on this Forum about how “speed” and “pace” can be derived from Equibase data without distance and displacement given, but there is an immediate outcry about how posters are going to be confused by a mistaken distance.

[Tom]

There are no 6 1/2 Furlong races on turf at Belmont.

Debbie Downer!

[cj]

Okay I get your point and I erred in using the 6-1/2F distance in my example; using 6F with recalculation of the start distance difference at the 6F distance between the two turf courses will give the same or similar inference.

However what I find amazing is that I have yet to see a discussion on this Forum about how “speed” and “pace” can be derived from Equibase data without distance and displacement given, but there is an immediate outcry about how posters are going to be confused by a mistaken distance.

There have been countless posts on how speed and pace can be derived from Equibase data dating back to the inception of this board.

It really is hard to take a post seriously when the poster doesn't know the distances run on the circuit he supposedly follows closely.

Many handicappers attempt to transition their handicapping methodology from NYRA’s main dirt track to its turf tracks with just making “turf adjustments.”

What does this even mean? You go on to compare the two turf tracks but don't mention the main dirt track again.

[Robert Fischer]

Why not skip the pseudointellectual act , and work an example?


find a first-on-turf horse(with dirt form) in an upcoming NYRA race, and tell us why the turn radius should help or hinder his specific style/turn ability/projected pace scenario/post position/ or whatever else...

Preferably use an example with significant positive or negative expectations.

[Cratos]

There have been countless posts on how speed and pace can be derived from Equibase data dating back to the inception of this board.

It really is hard to take a post seriously when the poster doesn't know the distances run on the circuit he supposedly follows closely.



What does this even mean? You go on to compare the two turf tracks but don't mention the main dirt track again.
In all due respect you and no one else ever will be able to create the impossible no matter how many posts has been submitted to this Forum; in effect you as unusual are blowing smoke up the proverbial chimney.

The fact about speed is this: Speed is the magnitude of velocity and its quantities can be represented by numbers alone (in horseracing they are the fractional and final race times) with the appropriate units and they are called scalars.

However a horse race have magnitude and in addition an associated direction which includes displacement, velocity, acceleration, force, momentum, and angular momentum.

Therefore the horse race with its magnitude and direction attributes are labeled a vector quantity; hence the Equibase data is insufficient for anything but time points because without defined distance and displacement, a velocity quantity cannot be defined nor can its magnitude which is speed.

I could give less than a damn whether you ever take a post of mine seriously. I submit posts to this Forum as a contributed opinion. My distance mistake in my earlier post was acknowledged and that mistake did not change the essence of my assertion.

[Cratos]

Why not skip the pseudointellectual act , and work an example?


find a first-on-turf horse(with dirt form) in an upcoming NYRA race, and tell us why the turn radius should help or hinder his specific style/turn ability/projected pace scenario/post position/ or whatever else...

Preferably use an example with significant positive or negative expectations.
There is no “pseudointellectual act” on my part, your sarcasm is unwarranted, but this is the Internet.

I will try and find your request and calculate the difference in side force for each track configuration and submit it as an example, but it should be noted that side force change by path.

[cj]

Why not skip the pseudointellectual act , and work an example?


find a first-on-turf horse(with dirt form) in an upcoming NYRA race, and tell us why the turn radius should help or hinder his specific style/turn ability/projected pace scenario/post position/ or whatever else...

Preferably use an example with significant positive or negative expectations.

1zNdw4DaUM8

[cj]

In all due respect you and no one else ever will be able to create the impossible no matter how many posts has been submitted to this Forum; in effect you as unusual are blowing smoke up the proverbial chimney.



Well that is a different story. You asked why nobody posted such things. You think it is impossible. Most people don't. Have a nice day Cratos, I'm off to bet using my pace and speed figures among other tools.

[Robert Fischer]

There is no “pseudointellectual act” on my part, your sarcasm is unwarranted, but this is the Internet.

I will try and find your request and calculate the difference in side force for each track configuration and submit it as an example, but it should be noted that side force change by path.



Quantifying it would be an interesting piece of information in it's own right. :ThmbUp:

There is a need for an application of the quantification.

We already have track stats that reveal bias.

So the advantage of having an insight into the physics would lie into being able to apply it to individual horses.

Off the top of my head a situation such as the Charles Town Classic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Town_Classic)sticks out as a significant contrast in track configuration for many horses.
9F, 3 Turns, for horses coming from 1 or 2 turn races.

Going from inner to outer turf could be interesting.

dirt to turf could be interesting if you can find situations where side-force and turn length trump surface dynamics...

It's tough to separate dynamics. However maybe certain factors related to dynamics could help apply the track configuration physics to predictable factors.

A horse who breaks from the gate and can establish good tactical position heading into the first turn is often tough on tight turns and short gate-to-turn distances.
A one turn mile isn't going to give that same advantage to the 'quick break'.
Same goes for jockeys. - You see a guy like Junior Alvarado (at least last I looked) and he's a much better jockey in 1-turn type races where initial position isn't as much of a premium.


You could be onto something.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Cratos
In all due respect you and no one else ever will be able to create the impossible no matter how many posts has been submitted to this Forum; in effect you as unusual are blowing smoke up the proverbial chimney.


BS. There are many posts here echoing the profitability of the figs, and another whole website that used have scores more. This has been going on for years. How many people have jumped up and pointed out actual winners using your methods? I would say the extent of your support comes in the form of that sounds good. When have you ever posted a winner before the race? That's been done You have no idea what is possible.

[garyscpa]

There is no “pseudointellectual act” on my part, your sarcasm is unwarranted, but this is the Internet.

I will try and find your request and calculate the difference in side force for each track configuration and submit it as an example, but it should be noted that side force change by path.

Good. I'd like to know the effects of inside or outside posts on these courses.

[Cratos]

Good. I'd like to know the effects of inside or outside posts on these courses.
Attached is a spreadsheet analysis in PDF of the “turn effect” at Belmont Park based on your request. The aggregate data is from Trakus and air, surface, and wind resistances are not discretely considered.

The 6F distance is used as the reference race distance for velocity, but any race distance can be used with the proper adjustments.

Average horse race weight with load is 1,204 pounds.

Summary of Findings:

• Main Track (dirt) path 1 radius/length = 646.50 feet/2,031 feet (all other radii are 4 feet off of center of adjacent path.

• Widener Turf Course path 1 radius/length = 546.50 feet/1,717 feet (all other radii are 4 feet off of center of adjacent path.

• Inner Turf Course path 1 radius/length = 453.50 feet/1,425 feet (all other radii are 4 feet off of center of adjacent path.

• Relative to path 1 the side force impact will reduce as the radii become larger, but the needed velocity and work will increase for the horses in the outer paths to stay even with the horse in path 1.

One thing to look at is what happens when a horse is moved by its connections to run the same distance, but in a different track configuration (e.g., Inner Turf vs Widener) and in a different path.

[menifee]

I don't understand the people on this board sometimes. Cratos gives out an interesting thought and he is attacked for doing so.

You can disagree or challenge him, but why attack him?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Well that is a different story. You asked why nobody posted such things. You think it is impossible. Most people don't. Have a nice day Cratos, I'm off to bet using my pace and speed figures among other tools.

Hey CJ is "..you as unusual are blowing smoke up the proverbial chimney..." just Oklahoma speak for BBQ?! :cool: