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View Full Version : G1 Triple Bend - 6/25 Santa Anita


Lemon Drop Husker
06-23-2016, 07:42 PM
This is a very interesting field of some pretty good sprinters, and a couple of other reasonable question marks thrown into this, assumed, field of eight. Yeah, it isn't the greatest G1 field, but at least it is competitive and likely open from a wagering standpoint. I'll put it this way, would you rather try to beat Runhappy or Private Zone at 2/5 to 4/5 or Kobe's Back at 2/1 to 5/2?

:1: Clever Royal: Longest ML odds at 15/1, and deservedly so. He is taking a giant step up in class after his return to dirt in his last 3 races. While one was taken off the turf, it has certainly sparked up some interest in this 5YO gelding that is in his career best form. He'll need others to come up short, but I certainly can't dismiss. Especially after his recent work after his last victory and a short 2 week turnaround. An interesting longshot that may not be win worthy, but an exotics possibility.

:2: Kobe's Back: He has been knocking on the door as being one of the very best sprinters in the entire country. At worst, he is very much in that second tier. He always brings his lunch pail to the track, and while he has gotten smoked a couple of times, those were against Runhappy and Honor Code when they were running lights out. The likely tepid favorite is beatable, but tough to leave out of exotics due to his love of this track and ability to bring a solid effort every time out. Serious contender, and the one to beat IMO.

:3: Cautious Giant: He has really grown into a pretty decent race horse as a 5YO. While he isn't reaching the wire first too many times, he is more than competitive and can be a part of this one. The big question for this Giant's Causeway gelding is shockingly the distance. 6 - 6.5 Fs is may well be his limitations against this class of field. Hard not to notice his lone 4 victories have come at this very venue though. A tough toss, but I have to side with others.

:4: Lord Nelson: That was a brilliant start to his 4YO campaign last out against a pretty decent field in his OC $75K victory. The obvious negative is his lone 2 starts in the last 13 months, but this has always been a very talented colt. Baffert and Bejarano are very difficult to look past, and this guy may be ready to really burst on the scene with a big time effort in here. Another serious contender.

:5: Ambitious Brew: A very interesting entry that has basically been a turf sprinter his entire career. However, one can easily argue that his two best races have come on the dirt. Back in 2014 he was a part of the BC Turf Sprint "down the hill" at Santa Anita and made a pretty decent accord of himself finishing 7th, and only 3 lengths back. Since then, he has primarily been a "DTH" turf sprinter in state bred stakes races; so this is a significant jump up in class while also moving over to his "non-preferred" surface. A really tough read that will likely step up the tote board in price. Interesting.

:6: Subtle Indian: He has quietly put together a really nice 5YO campaign with 5 starts; 4 wins, and a place. His lone loss this year was against Wild Dude who would be a serious player in here. Pretty straight forward, he will go to the front and see if he can wall everybody off to the finish line. Biggest question is distance. He was caught at 6.5 Fs last out, so how will he fare at 7Fs? And while he may be lone speed, he was also lone speed last out with a 5 length lead at 1st call and got ran down. Can Mike Smith make a difference in the irons?

:7: Home Run Kitten: Maybe the most interesting entry in the race. How often do you see Kitten's Joy offspring switch from turf to dirt? And not only that, switch from a route to a sprint? And all that as a 5YO. Maybe Hofmans and company are hoping for some rain as HRK rolled home a winner 2 back at 14/1 in a turf race that was moved to a wet and fast dirt track. Then again, hoping for rain in Southern California is like hoping gas prices will fall below $1 before Saturday as well. IF anything, he'll be coming late, but there are much better dirt sprint closers in here. This one would be a complete shock.

:8: Coastline: You simply can't look past any D'Amato horse at Santa Anita right now. He is simply crushing it in this meet thus far. This horse is also on the improve, and while he has been beaten by others in here in his last two, he can take more steps forward. They are also throwing blinkers on for the first time, in an angle that works very well for 4-leggers coming out of Phil's barn. Baze stays on board, and the last two times this guy has gotten an outside post, he ran his eyeballs out (albeit on turf). Dangerous at a 6/1 ML.

SUMMARY: I think the :8: Coastline has a real shot in here. The pace should be reasonable, but not outlandish. :2: Kobe's Back is the one to beat, and I'm likely an idiot for trying to not only beat him, but keep him out of every ticket. The :4: Lord Nelson is a 4YO that has to be on anybody's watch list. The :5: Ambitious Brew is my toughest read. Will they send? Can he stalk or sit? I think we'll get better than 8/1 on him. Pure wildcard.

WP: :8:
EX: :4::8: Box
TRI: :4::8:/:4::5::8:/:1::4::5::6::8:

maclr11
06-23-2016, 09:33 PM
Subtle Indian is 4 not 5.

And he did not get a good ride last time by a rider who isn't normally a Santa Anita rider. Big rider change, loose speed for a vastly talented colt. I think he takes them gate to wire.

He's my key in the Pick 4 Saturday afternoon.

Lemon Drop Husker
06-23-2016, 09:40 PM
Subtle Indian is 4 not 5.

And he did not get a good ride last time by a rider who isn't normally a Santa Anita rider. Big rider change, loose speed for a vastly talented colt. I think he takes them gate to wire.

He's my key in the Pick 4 Saturday afternoon.

You are correct, he is a 4YO. Slip of the finger. My apologies.

Either way, I still see speed and fade at 7F.