Confessions of an Exotics Junkie

[OTM Al]

Hello, my name is Al and I'm an exotichalic.....

Seriously though, I was wondering if anyone else here has the problem I seem to keep repeating. The problem is that I simply can't seem to be able to place a WPS bet. I'm finding good longshots and my only instinct seems to be to build an exacta or tri around them rather than put down a simple $10 win bet. Best known case in point this spring was Castledale in the SA Derby. Really liked him. Built a tri with him on top and the next 2 finishers in 3rd only. You'd think that would have taught me but no....just last week, at either CD or Hol I think, I see a lovely 44-1 shot that looks more live than the favorite. Here we go building exotics again....needless to say, no win ticket when he came in and the tri and exacta were duds. Did it again this Saturday with a more modest 10-1. This caused me to kick myself and I did manage to buy a few as the day went on that came in at more modest 5-2 to 4-1 rates. Then here comes the American Oaks at Hol. Loving the 4 and 7 to upset the 6. What do I buy but exacta and tri tickets. Needless to say it didn't hurt so bad because I cashed both, but still the winner was a generous 14-1 or so.

I just don't know why I seem to keep doing this beyond the fact that it is just instinct for me. Its the way I taught myself to bet. But I do know that it is costing me $ because though the peaks are high with the exotics, the slumps seem much lower and longer and just playing some win or place bets along the way would certainly even those dips out a bit.

I've just gotten my odds calculator to a place where I think it is representative of the horses' forms, so maybe having that along will get me to think more about WPS. Anyone else have this "problem" and been able to get around it? Any good advice is welcome.

[stuball]

Hi Al

Here's what we are gonna do ......if you can't bet them to win I will do it....notify me of these longshots or any shots that will win and I will bet them to win..that way they don't go to waste...

What do you think of my idea...???

If they are long enuff I will bet them to place also...

or you bet some combos and I will bet others.....think it over if I hit it big you will benefit with the satisfaction that you have done a great job of capping

Stuball LOL

[OTM Al]

You are so kind sir. I see that you have gone straight to the root of my problem and come up with a fine answer. It is so considerate of you to be willing to spend your hard earned money to help give me satisfaction of what I knew as right. However, the odds themselves are telling me how many others are willing to bet their own money on these fine horses, so I don't think what you propose will cure me. Alas, it must be my own money involved.....:)

[keilan]

OTM AL

You wager like a lot of punters, I’ve seen lots of tickets like yours and some have been mine.

I also play the exotics; matter-a-fact I rarely have just win money in a race.

Rule #1 for me is – if my top horse has value and I think he will win the race I automatically bet w/p wager, after that I try to find value in the exotics.

There problem solved – please send $20 every time you don’t follow this wagering rule #1. :D

[ceejay]

OTM,

I often play longshots: 44-1 is not uncommon. I cannot imagine playing these without win-place money. In fact, the win pool often has better value than hooking up my longshots with short prices int he exacta pools.

[Blackgold]

Al, if you find significant value you should search for and apply your advantage everywhere they give it to you.

Of course, you should bet to win. Out of the $150-$200 avg. I invest in a race, I usually only bet $20 to win and sometimes on 2 different runners.

Since longshots hit the board as much as they win, you can often make more money in the exotics than a place or show bet. Mark Cramer has some interesting ideas in his writings called the "Exacta as place bet" and "Trifecta as show bet"

And look at the double and P3,4 and see if one or all of those races look wide open or at least you don't like the FAV. Your single lets you spread a lot in the other races.

Often keying a longshot on top in the exotics will provide a windfall.

In all of your exotic structure, use the probable exacta payoffs to guide you. If all your choices and any combination of, at most can only produce a $50 exacta. . . then bet to win only. However, your longshot and the FAV and something strange can make a nice tri and even nicer super.

In short take what they give you. . . that's where your advantage is.

If they ain't giving, then you shouldn't be playing that bet.

[Tuffmug]

Had that problem and solved it by spreading deeper (use more horses) in the exotics pool. Never play a win bet now and am doing great.

I used to outsmart myself by playing the exotics too cheap. Would bet my "live" horse with only two or three others and try to save money by betting some only to place or show. Would tear up a lot of tickets with the right horses on them in the wrong order.

Don't key your "live" horse in only one position. Put him in to win place or show in the tri. A 14/1 horse in a tri pumps up the tri payout and you will often get an overlay. Include any horse that looks like he's breathing or has a trainer gimmick possible. You can save money by using your "live" horse with another key horse.

I"ll never go back to win bets
and if you do it right you won't either!

[keilan]

Tuffmug,

I think I understand what you are doing when you do not include a win ticket on your live long-shot horse.

I’d say you want to maximize the $50 or $100 dollars you’re putting into the race and try to catch a ticket/s that is going to pay you very well for your efforts. If you’re wagering more than that into the race then imo there is not a good enough reason not have win money on the horse, regardless a win ticket is always my first wager. When it works your way it is a thing of beauty but when the exotic tickets end up the floor it will often take your momentum away if you haven’t cash earlier in the day.

I firmly believe that a player has to cash at least one ticket on all long priced winners if that is your horse. That to me is a wagering fundamental.

I certainly agree with you --- spread the “key” horse in different positions is the way to go.

Take a 10-1 horse that wins and have a 6-1 behind him in a 8-10 horse field and you’re looking at a pretty nice exactor, now add almost any other horse to the show spot and the tri adds up in a hurry when you’re playing it 5 or 10 times.

A/B-C/ B-C-D-E-F = $40 for a $5 ticket

Good luck at the windows

[stuball]

Hi Al

I have found that I have to have a win bet on my horse unless I have played a my pic/all ticket especially if it is a mid to long odds horse...I never did that when I started and it is very hard to overcome the hit that you take by having the selection and getting nothing in return...

Many times I would be so upset at myself that I was in no condition to bet another race that day....(even though I would do it)

I don't like the place bet unless you are not covering your pic in the 2nd hole of the exacta....I prefer to cover the 2nd hole of the exacta..monster payoffs possible. Also it is not as big a hit if your
pic finishes 2nd as it is if he wins...that's where the hurt is
mentally...IMHO

Stuball

[andicap]

I don't' think there are any rules to betting exotics. It depends on the situation. (Tom Walters has a good book on the subject, "Exotic Wagering"I
But in general I like to have one pretty high priced key horse that is on almost all my tickets and then out of two "B/C" horses, at least one of those is on every ticket. I put no more than 2 horses in the win slot to save money.

so
A/BC/BCDE -- 6 units
A/BCDE/BC -- 6 units
B/A/CDE -- 3 units
B/CDE/A --- 3 units

if the odds are right I might also play B/C/DE and maybe a C/A/B and C/B/A .

But often I'll just play parts of that matrix. I might concentrate on the win pool and use exotics as a supplement using A in the 2nd OR 3rd slots only.
If I think the favorite is really vulnerable I'll bet place because lots of my higher priced horses finish 2nd and I'll get a decent price if the favorite isn't there.

In the end I feel you have to do what you feel comfortable with. What works for me won't necessarily work for others.

It also depends on what track I'm playing. I'll be far more conservative if I'm fooling around at a MNR for fun at night than if I'm playing a NYRA track I know and follow.

(I'll figure out that MNR yet!!!)

[delayjf]

Reminds me of a guy I knew once. He could pick some longshots but rarely would he have them to win. He was convinced that the only way to play was trifectas. Problem was that he was a small player and played a lot of stright tickets maybe investing 4-5 dollars a race. When he did hit it seemed it was always a small payout. Can't tell you how often I tried to talk him into at least a duece on his longshots. After losing many a bet while picking the longshot winner, he always swore he'd change his ways, never did. It got to be comical, hearing him curse after picking a longshot and losing his whole bet.

I do play the exotics but, It's rare that I don't bet my longshots to win.

[OTM Al]

Certainly some good advice here, especially about structuring exotics, though that is the least of my problems. I think its the looking for value aspect that I must really concentrate on and having odds lines that I am now satisfied with will certainly help. You will also all be proud to know that I just took my first step to recovery and used only win and place bets for this week's summer fling picks (though I probably wouldn't have if I didn't have to be away from my machine for the next several days hehehe. There is no real cure for his disease....)

And also andicap, I wish you good luck in your pursuit of Mountaineer. Ive played that track all of 3 times with 3 horse exacta boxes in each and I don't think a single one of those picks even hit the board. I swore it off forever (well, maybe the W Va Derby) after that. As soon as the Hollywood card ends, I head on home.

[mhrussell]

OTM Al

I can relate. Over the past couple of years, I have shifted my pirme bets from Win to Exacta and understand what you are talking about. For me, I "solved" that problem when I adopted a portfolio style in my total racing bankroll. I allocate a certain % of my total bankroll to exactas, a certain % to trifectas and superfectas and a certain % to Win bets (I gave up on Place/Show). You get the idea. In my software, when a race comes up as favorable, it tells me horses that are worth a win bet and also it tells me how much $ is available to bet in the exotics (exacta, tri.. whatever).

Bottom line is that this kind of portfolio allocation method takes the question of whether to bet to win OR exotics out of your control for any given race. In essence , with portfolio betting you have already "pre-planned" how you are going to bet any race. You just have to follow through. Psychologically, it's nice to have some output in my spreadsheet staring me in the face telling me which bets to make and how much I can invest in each for this race.
I am then much less likely to "second guess" or overbet a portion of my portfolio. This has really helped me to make sure I have that win bet on my 50-1 shot as well as my exotic bets.. maybe it will help you too.

[OTM Al]

mh-

That's a good way to do it and syncs with my setting down all bets the night before. Are you using commercial software or something of your own programming to set those bets up?

[mhrussell]

Al-

I've written my own software in MS Excel. It's based on "Handicapping Magic" (you can search on my other posts...describes my approach in more detail).

My betting is simple : flat bet , % of bankroll for each portfolio. Currently, I'm using a unit bet size of 1% of my bankroll.

For my exotic bets, I make sure the total of my straight, boxes and/or part wheels do not exceed this maximum value for any one race.
I may make rare exceptions for a few select races over the course of a year ( like a BC race where I need a larger spread and the race is very favorable..)

[andicap]

Originally posted by mhrussell
Al-

each portfolio. Currently, I'm using a unit bet size of 1% of my bankroll.

For my exotic bets, I make sure the total of my straight, boxes and/or part wheels do not exceed this maximum value for any one race.
I may make rare exceptions for a few select races over the course of a year ( like a BC race where I need a larger spread and the race is very favorable..)

Can you explain what you mean by "maximum value?"

[freeneasy]

how long you been into horse racing?

[mhrussell]

Sure..

For example: If my exacta portfolio bankroll is $5000 then I will limit the total of all my exacta bets in any given race to $50. This maximum amount could be in the form of a single straight exacta or allocated to multiple combinations in a part wheel... the structure of the bet comes out of the analysis of the race.

I use the same approach for my win and trifecta/superfecta portfolios.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by freeneasy
how long you been into horse racing?

Curious to why you would ask that. It sounds like he has dedicated bankrolls for each type of wagers and bets no more than 1% of each bankroll per race. That sounds like excellent money management. If selections are based on HM techniques, then so much the better.