Profit lines for overlays - the takeout effect

[StormAgain]

Anyone had any luck using their own profit lines?

I know how to make a fair line that adds up to 100, but whenever I try to use them usually takeout kills any edge I might have had.

I'm more of a casual player (2-3 Saturdays a month) so maybe this strategy works better for professional players.

Do most people just sense if a horse is a good value or should I try having my odds line add up to include takeout?

[barn32]

Anyone had any luck using their own profit lines?

I know how to make a fair line that adds up to 100, but whenever I try to use them usually takeout kills any edge I might have had.

I'm more of a casual player (2-3 Saturdays a month) so maybe this strategy works better for professional players.

Do most people just sense if a horse is a good value or should I try having my odds line add up to include takeout?I haven't played the horses in years, but I think your line should add up to around 117%. Or maybe it's 124%. Can't really remember. Either way, someone will chime in who knows what they are talking about.

[AndyC]

Anyone had any luck using their own profit lines?

I know how to make a fair line that adds up to 100, but whenever I try to use them usually takeout kills any edge I might have had.

I'm more of a casual player (2-3 Saturdays a month) so maybe this strategy works better for professional players.

Do most people just sense if a horse is a good value or should I try having my odds line add up to include takeout?

No! Presumably you are trying to make bets that exceed fair value. If you get rebates your line should probably reflect the rebate percentage.

[Harvhorse]

I usually bet 1st and 2nd choices at 4/1 and up and 3rd and 4th choices at 6/1 and up. If your a decent handicapper this should work well for you. Win bets only and I dutch if odds are good.

[StormAgain]

That's kind of similar to what I've been doing lately.

I've been finding races where the fav is vulnerable and just playing the contenders with the best perceived odds or dutching a couple.

I've been cashing a few tickets, mostly off the dutch bets.

Just feel like I'm missing something when I read books by Barry Meadow and Dick Mitchell and they live or die by their lines.

[Dave Schwartz]

That's kind of similar to what I've been doing lately.

I've been finding races where the fav is vulnerable and just playing the contenders with the best perceived odds or dutching a couple.

I've been cashing a few tickets, mostly off the dutch bets.

Just feel like I'm missing something when I read books by Barry Meadow and Dick Mitchell and they live or die by their lines.

IMHO, the key to success at the races is to VALIDATE just how bad those vulnerable favorites are.

[Overlay]

Anyone had any luck using their own profit lines?

I know how to make a fair line that adds up to 100, but whenever I try to use them usually takeout kills any edge I might have had.

I'm more of a casual player (2-3 Saturdays a month) so maybe this strategy works better for professional players.

Do most people just sense if a horse is a good value or should I try having my odds line add up to include takeout?

As far as win betting is concerned, if you make a 100% full-field fair-odds line, based on your estimate of the true winning probability for each of the respective horses in a race, it is then not necessary to adjust for take in determining overlays, because the odds posted on the toteboard for each horse (which correspond to the payout that you will receive in the event of a successful wager) will already have figured in the effect of the take.

So, using a 100% fair-odds line, if a horse is going off at higher toteboard odds than are justified by the winning percentage that you have assigned to the horse, then the horse is an overlay, with no need to worry about the take.

For example, if you give a horse a 25% chance of winning a given race, toteboard odds higher than 3-1 will make the horse an overlay, since a 3-1 horse will pay a minimum of $8.00 on a $2.00 wager if it wins.

I concede that, in today's betting environment, you still have to take the possibility of a last-flash odds drop into account, but that is unrelated to the question of the relationship between winning probabilities and fair odds.

[biggestal99]

I know how to make a fair line that adds up to 100, but whenever I try to use them usually takeout kills any edge I might have had.


You could use the exchange line once the money start rolling in gets it down to 103-104.

Lots of over and underlays on that line.

Allan