BEL 6/16 Race 7 and Trainer Changes

[ucbsharkbait]

Hi all,

I'm a brand new poster and also very new to the sport. (Forgive me if this is not the right place to post this.) Just wanted to see if I could learn something from this great crowd...

I'm doing some handicapping of Race 7 at Belmont tomorrow. There is a horse ( :3: Majestic Jessica) that seems to have been changing hands frequently.

She's made 20 starts ever. And:

After the 15th, she was claimed for 25k.
After the 17th, she was claimed for 25k.
After the 19th, she was claimed for 25k.
After the 20th, she was claimed for 25k.

Now she is entered with a claiming price of 40k in Race 7 tomorrow (allowance, claiming optional).

How does one go about analyzing what's going on here? And whether there is a betting opportunity? To me, just as someone with no real experience, it seems like this would be a bad sign -- the claiming price for her wasn't even going up, so maybe people really didn't like what they saw. Yet her performances, while a little uneven, don't seem all that bad. (Again, to my totally inexperienced eyes.)

The other horse in this field entered with a claiming price seems to have a far worse record, and has a morning line of 30-1. But Majestic Jessica is a mystery to me!

[johnhannibalsmith]

I don't think that there is a negative conclusion to be drawn because she has been claimed repeatedly at about the same level. The first time she was claimed for the 25k she had been getting knocked around in this statebred 2x/40k condition and she has more or less just hung around at that 25k level for each of the new connections with success. Her one foray back up the ladder into that condition for Rudy Rod she didn't run terribly, but was disappointing as the favorite and went right back to the 25k statebred level for another win.

So while I think her changing hands several times in a few months is itself usually more a positive than a negative with a horse in good form, in this case you can't really ignore that her track record at this level no matter which barn she's been in hasn't been all that great compared to when she's been spotted at the level at which she has been routinely claimed.

I didn't look much beyond the horse in question so I'm not trying to influence the way you handicap the race, just my most direct answer to the question stated.

[cnollfan]

I treat horses like this differently than I used to. Now that claiming purses are so much higher than they used to be, it can be profitable to claim a horse and run it back at the same level. Even if it is claimed back, you get the purse and didn't incur months or years of training expense.

Similarly, I am now suspicious of horses who repeatedly run for the same claiming tag and seem to do OK but are never claimed. Every active claiming trainer at the track is telling you they don't think much of that horse. Like the dog that didn't bark, their silence speaks volumes.

[ucbsharkbait]

Thank you, this is very helpful and interesting... much appreciated!

I don't think that there is a negative conclusion to be drawn because she has been claimed repeatedly at about the same level. The first time she was claimed for the 25k she had been getting knocked around in this statebred 2x/40k condition and she has more or less just hung around at that 25k level for each of the new connections with success. Her one foray back up the ladder into that condition for Rudy Rod she didn't run terribly, but was disappointing as the favorite and went right back to the 25k statebred level for another win.

So while I think her changing hands several times in a few months is itself usually more a positive than a negative with a horse in good form, in this case you can't really ignore that her track record at this level no matter which barn she's been in hasn't been all that great compared to when she's been spotted at the level at which she has been routinely claimed.

I didn't look much beyond the horse in question so I'm not trying to influence the way you handicap the race, just my most direct answer to the question stated.

[ucbsharkbait]

Wow, now I want to start looking for these situations, thanks!

I treat horses like this differently than I used to. Now that claiming purses are so much higher than they used to be, it can be profitable to claim a horse and run it back at the same level. Even if it is claimed back, you get the purse and didn't incur months or years of training expense.

Similarly, I am now suspicious of horses who repeatedly run for the same claiming tag and seem to do OK but are never claimed. Every active claiming trainer at the track is telling you they don't think much of that horse. Like the dog that didn't bark, their silence speaks volumes.

[bello]

Looks like Pocono Downs with the same horse getting claimed every week and staying in the same class for an instant and gratifying purse check.

This horse and race is different. More and more you need to look at if the horse was claimed from or by "supertrainer". Sciacca has been having the best year of his career and Rudy could get nothing out of him in 40 claimers.

He got claimed by a marginal trainer ( unless he is a beard for someone else) who is raising him back to 40. The trainer is also a bigger force at Finger Lakes and the horse may still be eligible to go up north and take an allowance race or two based on conditions.

For me she is a a complete toss based on the above factors.