Hong Kong June. 15th Happy Valley

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for June 15th at Happy Valley.
Weather report: 81 degrees wind: SSW 15 mph. 60% of rain in the forecast.
Post time: 7.15am ET 4.15am PT Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Links to past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20160615_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html

Vulnerable favourites:
Race 3 :2: Apache Spirit (4-1) Is still winless after 18 races in Hong Kong. Loves to eat money.
Race 7 :3: Extremely Fun (3-1) Ridden by a 3% jockey while moving up in class, had a perfect trip while beating favourite that had a horrible trip, also has a bad habit of not changing leads in the lane.

Horses coming out of key races:
Race 5 :6: Secret Agent (13-1) Race 651, winner, 4th and 11th place runners came back and won next out.

Horses off my watch list:
Race 1 :5: Casa Master (5-2) as the start was effected lifted its front feet off the ground and consequently lost a considerable amount of ground (3 lengths). Passing the 1400M was crowded for room - Race 678.
Race 5 :2: Good Man (2-1) began only fairly. Near the 1000M commenced to prove very difficult to settle and was restrained away from heels after being crossed by a runner. Then making the first turn near the 900M took charge of its rider and shifted out abruptly across heels and made heavy contact with another runner. After that continued to prove very difficult to settle and was checked away from heels for some distance - Race 530.
Race 8 :4: Cheeky Too (9-1) near the 300M was steadied when disappointed for running between other runners. Then was unable to obtain clear running for the remainder of the race and consequently was not able to be tested - Race 609.

Longshots:
Race 4 :7: Classic Emperor (12-1)
Race 5 :6: Secret Agent (13-1) and :7: Yo-Yo Da (22-1)
Race 6 :8: Trendy Win (19-1)
Race 7 :4: Flying Tourbillon (19-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 Class 5 1600 Metres (1 mile)

:5: Casa Master (2-1) Was bet down to 9-2 after being scratched with a lame leg when scratched in April, was 3 lengths slow from the gate made a nice move while travelling wide and was beaten by a horse who had a much easier trip. Hate making key bets on favourite class 5 types but after that trip can't help myself.

Doubles :5: with :11: :9: :6: :3: :7:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Hi Woodster - gonna play a couple.

Race 1 - bombs away with QP p/w, :4: :8: with :1: :2: :3: :5: :4: :8: :7:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 results:

:5: -( :6: - :11: dead heat)- :2: winner pays: $7.40

[woodbinepmi]

Morning Parkview, good luck this morning.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 2 Class 4 1650 Metres

:11: Rock The Tree (5-1) Not all that keen on tipping horses that are 2 for 40 and trained by 4%'ers. His last race speed figure blew up for traveling wide the entire trip, does get a slight advantage in the weights and believe the favourite is very light here.

:11: Over :9: :6: :3: Over :4: :12: :8:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Nice pick in the 1st, Woody. That :5: was all-world. Good luck in your doubles - I'm assuming if you run 1-2, you cash the consolation too.

Race 2: :6: looks set up here, with saver Qs with the :1: :7: :10: :11:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 2 results:

:8: - :4: - :3: - :9: winner pays $ 53.00

[Parkview_Pirate]

Got a perfect trip on my horse in the 1st race, but had no punch. Got a wide trip in the second, and got nothing. Looks like the track is playing pretty fair, but saving ground seems to be a key to have a chance with the tighter turns at the Valley.

Reminds me of Sportsman's Park when the inside was good.....

[woodbinepmi]

It's very important to save ground at this track with 3 turns in the route races here, especially the last one. You will see jocks cut the corner and try to get up under entering the stretch. Also, like the first race you will see the 'Cruz move' a jock will rush up a horse quickly to the lead from the back when they make the run up the hill, usually it's a winning move because thy only make it if they know they will have enough horse to hold on in the short stretch. I much prefer Happy Valley to Sha Tin.
Kicking myself for not buying the 2nd in the doubles.

[kevb]

Hello Woodbine and parkview. Where is Nitro?

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 Class 4 1200 Metres (6 furlongs)

:10: Speedy Sandy (10-1) A need to lead type who gets the change in jock to the bug girl who loves to ride on the lead. Just an entertainment play. Don't like the race at all.

[woodbinepmi]

Hello Woodbine and parkview. Where is Nitro?
Morning. Nitro rarely gets up in the morning for Happy Valley. a lot easier for me to get at 5.45am local time here than stay up all night during the weekend. Like on weekends the races get better the later in the card, when it hits about 3am on Saturday night it gets hard for me to really concentrate, the opposite here.

[kevb]

Race 3 Class 4 1200 Metres (6 furlongs)

:10: Speedy Sandy (10-1) A need to lead type who gets the change in jock to the bug girl who loves to ride on the lead. Just an entertainment play. Don't like the race at all.

Do you mean Speedy Sandy :12:.

Not the :10:?

[Parkview_Pirate]

Thanks for the insight, Woodster. Can't argue with you at all, that uphill move was a sight to behold.

Race 3: taking a flyer on the :5: , hoping he's ready - saver Qs with :2: :3: :9: :11:

[kevb]

Race 3:

WS:3: HK debut runner. Good price.

Oops. :12: breaks loose. Scratch?

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 3 Class 4 1200 Metres (6 furlongs)

:10: Speedy Sandy (10-1) A need to lead type who gets the change in jock to the bug girl who loves to ride on the lead. Just an entertainment play. Don't like the race at all.

Hmmm. Not often one gets "entertainment" prior to the race, but Speedy looked ready dashing down the course. :D

[ebcorde]

R3 1,9,11

[woodbinepmi]

Race 2 results:

:2: - :9: - :11: - :3: winner pays $10

Got a real run for my money, then they gave it back to me on :12: Speedy Sandy. Thought the :11: was home at the 150 mark, but he just stopped.

[ebcorde]

HKJC handicap the quick method via speedmap and ratings


Play 8,2,3

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 Class 3 1650 Metres (1 mile and 55 yards)

:7: Classic Emperor (11-1) improved in his last at 46-1 against Heroic Guru who is at least 2 lengths better than any runner in here. Afraid of the rider and the draw but willing to gamble on that at 11-1.

:3: Winnam (12-1) closed well 2 back then was blocked at Sha Tin in his last, has a bad habit of not getting on his proper lead in the stretch, but does have some back class to him.

Dutching those two to make them 5-1 as a couple.

[kevb]

I like and use the speed map, too.

Race 4 :

Looking for a closer:

WS :3:. Good race 2 back. Trouble 1 back

[ebcorde]

and perhaps good betting if one knows how the gate is ordered, Post positions. Their rating system is accurate, 3 trainers own the best horses, but the weight assignments are unfair to favorites.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 4: you guys have a lot of love for the horse I like, the :3: dog. No offense, but makes me nervous. Saver QP with the :6: .

Never heard of the Kiwi jock, but hopefully he can drive well enough over 1600 to get there....hasn't won a race yet in HK per his stats.....

[kevb]

Anyone betting Royal Ascot today?

Race 1 Royal Ascot. I like :18: Steady Pace.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 results:

:7: - :2: - :10: - :6: winner pays $ 10.40

They really bet the winner down late, :3: Winnam looked uninterested today, may need a break.

[ebcorde]

Anyone betting Royal Ascot today?

Race 1 Royal Ascot. I like :18: Steady Pace.


21 horses? lol. out of my league.

I got up early for 2 reasons.

1. Royal Ascot Prince of Wales ( to see the Japan Horse, and Found)
2. Euro soccer

I only bet HK on big race days, nice to watch , and laugh at the Aussie commetary

[woodbinepmi]

Anyone betting Royal Ascot today?

Race 1 Royal Ascot. I like :18: Steady Pace.
I like watching the races there, but don't know enough about those horses to justify betting on them. I personally can't bet on horses unless I have seen them run in the past and it's very difficult to keep up with that short meet with horses coming from all over the place. I used to work with Byron King of the DRF at Sam Houston and he couldn't understand why I wouldn't play the Breeders' Cup, I told him 'I don't know those horses'. Will be pulling for you Kev.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 5 Class 4 1200 Metres (6 furlongs)

:2: Good Man (9-5) has been away for a while but looks good in the paddock, usually runs near the lead but encountered some trouble early on then was very rank, was not asked in the lane for any kind of run.

:2: Over :6: (exiting a key race with the 1st, 4th and 11th place runners winning next out) :7: (race 659 has 2 winners so far) :10: Over :8: :5: (not missing another Size at nice price, already missed one this morning)

[kevb]

Race 5

WS :6:. Sitting in the box seat.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 5: :8: with saver QPs :5: :6: :9:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 5 results:

:6: - :10: - :2: - :8: winner pays $ 16.00

good results for us Kev, would have been better for me if the :2: would have held on for 2nd

[Parkview_Pirate]

Anyone betting Royal Ascot today?

Race 1 Royal Ascot. I like :18: Steady Pace.

Well, unlike Woody if a race is on TV, I feel compelled to play it..... :)

Actually I don't play many races from the UK - but I do like the racing from South Africa - it's like stealing there.

Race 1: Royal Ascot - playing a little each way on the :16: and hoping to avoid traffic problems.

[kevb]

Yes, I had a big Q on the 2, small Q with the 10. WS was OK.

Looking for a big score at Ascot. WS :18:. EX box :2::3::16::17::18:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 6 Class 3 1200 Metres (6 furlongs)

:1: Forever Red (5-1) would love this one with the weight off if he had a better draw, but willing to gamble with the price. Was wide in his last as he probably will be in here, only beaten a length but that race did come back a little light in class (Mint Master would be 12 to 15-1 in here). Loves the Valley though.

:1: Over :8: :4: :3: Over :2: :6: :5:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Yes, I had a big Q on the 2, small Q with the 10. WS was OK.

Looking for a big score at Ascot. WS :18:. EX box :2::3::16::17::18:

At 5-1, that :2: won awfully easy. My :16: tried to make a late charge, found traffic was short-stepping it home. The horses looked crawling compared to a 1400 at the Valley.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 6: cheap Q and QP boxes, :4: :5: :9:

Small each way play on the :5:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 6 results:

:12: - :1: - :4: - :8: winner pays $ 36.00

That one hurt, looking at a nice score if the :12: decided not to run. Oh well.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 6 results:

:12: - :1: - :4: - :8: winner pays $ 36.00

That one hurt, looking at a nice score if the :12: decided not to run. Oh well.

Tough break. The steam horses on the HK circuit seem to be doing better this time in the season, then I recall from last year. The tote did a late tilt on that 12 - and wins easy.

[kevb]

Yeah, the brown lampers seem to be scoring more often than usual the past few weeks.

[woodbinepmi]

Tough break. The steam horses on the HK circuit seem to be doing better this time in the season, then I recall from last year. The tote did a late tilt on that 12 - and wins easy.
That's a Nitro type horse, the only thing I had on him was the winner of his last race (My Darling) is a nice runner but still couldn't use him.

[kevb]

Race 7
Ina good to fast projected race, trying to decide between the best closers- :1: :4: :11: and maybe the :3:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 7 Class 3 1200 Metres (6 furlongs)

On tilt right now.

:12: Wild Boy (31-1) Was on my watch list from his race back on May 11th when he was blocked in the lane, then was outrun by the favourite without being asked to run in the stretch. Should be able to save ground in the quick turn and the weight should help late.

:12: over :4: :10: :1: over :5: :7: :9: :3:

[kevb]

Race 7

WS :1:

Q :1::3::4::11: / :1::3::4::7::11::12:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 7: looks like the :9: dog should be a part of this, cheap Q and Qp with the Wood's bomber :12:

[kevb]

Well, I guess I can't cash that ticket. I said the :1: had to win from off the pace. KK like the lead and doesn't give it up easily.

[woodbinepmi]

Well, I guess I can't cash that ticket. I said the :1: had to win from off the pace. KK like the lead and doesn't give it up easily.
If she can get the lead and she has nice hands, and if you are on her turning for home you feel good.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 7 results:

:1: - :7: - :9: -( :4: - :10: Dead heat for fourth) winner pays $ 11.80

[woodbinepmi]

Race 8 Class 2 1650 Metres (1 mile and 55 yards)

:4: Cheeky Too (11-1) is on my watch list after his last race: near the 300M was steadied when disappointed for running between other runners. Then was unable to obtain clear running for the remainder of the race and consequently was not able to be tested - Race 609.
Was a totally bad ride, thank goodness the pinhead chose the #1 in here, getting Whyte for the trip, don't care for the draw, but has won from bad draws before at this class.

Don't know about you guys, but have NOT missed Moreira at all the last two meetings.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Glad to see the Magic Man be on suspension. He's as bad as Pat Day at OP or AP back in the day. Makes many races unplayable.

Race 8: at the risk of jinxing the Woodster, I'm also playing the :4: with saver Qs with the :1: :5: :9:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 8 results:

:10: - :7: - :9: - :5: winner pays $ 12.40

Whyte couldn't get him close enough to the rail and lost too much ground the entire trip. Would like too see a better draw and maybe try and get a bug for the weight allowance.

Good day though, enjoyed it, see you guys Saturday night.

[Nitro]

Tough break. The steam horses on the HK circuit seem to be doing better this time in the season, then I recall from last year. The tote did a late tilt on that 12 - and wins easy.Yeah, the brown lampers seem to be scoring more often than usual the past few weeks.That's a Nitro type horse, the only thing I had on him was the winner of his last race (My Darling) is a nice runner but still couldn't use him.Hey guys it looks like you faired pretty well today. Although there’s often late betting going on (during the last 3 mins prior to post time) I’ve found that these occurrences at Happy Valley seem to have more of an impact in terms of a race’s outcome then at Sha Tin. What’s really amazing is just how much money is involved when these betting anomalies occur. Imagine a single race with a 12 horse field and a Win pool (only) typically totaling $800,000 (US dollars). The amount of money required to move the odds even a single point is incredible, but there are some instances when the odds on a single entry at 15 mins to post are cut in half by 2 mins to post! It can be a tote watcher’s blessing when properly analyzed in time, but a nightmare when trying to change or cancel bets in time.
See you over the weekend.