2017 Kentucky Derby

[PowerUpPaynter]

Is it too soon to start to talk Derby 2017? I got post triple crown season depression. lol

Secret House seems like a good 2YO

[AlBundy33]

How many 2 year olds have even run at this point? :eek: :D

[PowerUpPaynter]

How many 2 year olds have even run at this point? :eek: :D

good question. id guess by October the 2017 derby winner will of made his debute

[cj]

Nyquist and Exaggerator had both raced already by this time last year!

[Tom]

Derby 2017

Beyer 97

[bobphilo]

Is it too soon to start to talk Derby 2017? I got post triple crown season depression. lol

Secret House seems like a good 2YO
Way too early. Plenty of more races still to be run before the 2017 Derby hype begins. the Haskel, Travers, Breeder's Cup, etc.
IMO Derby hype begins too early just like the Presidential election campaigns.

[horses4courses]

Derby 2017

Beyer 97

:lol:

Sad, but very possible.

[rastajenk]

Derby 2017

Beyer 97This crop sucks! :ThmbDown:



First! :jump:

[ArlJim78]

I've already made my selections for 2017, an exacta box of the top three post time choices.

[PowerUpPaynter]

here is a nice looking debut by Recruiting Ready

https://youtu.be/m2sag5VayNY


Although any 2 yo thats decent this time of the year runs out of the screen

[woodbinepmi]

This crop sucks! :ThmbDown:



First! :jump:

That goes down as the post of the year!

[bobphilo]

Nyquist and Exaggerator had both raced already by this time last year!
Wonder if the accumulation of stress from racing as babies could have something to do with their inability to maintain form throughout or even complete the Triple Crown series.

[cj]

Wonder if the accumulation of stress from racing as babies could have something to do with their inability to maintain form throughout or even complete the Triple Crown series.

Every study I've ever seen shows horses that race at two, and the more they race the better, have longer and more successful careers.

[bobphilo]

Every study I've ever seen shows horses that race at two, and the more they race the better, have longer and more successful careers.

Both the Australian and Jockey Club study make the error of using skewed distributions on ability giving biased results. Industry studies have a tendency to "prove"what is economically to their advantage. As statisticians say, "He who pays you sways you".
Lacking evidence from unbiased studies I will go with the medical knowledge on the effect of excessive stress on immature bones and joints.
There's a reason why Arabians are not allowed to race until, they are 3YOs

http://www.horsefund.org/horse-racing-racing-babies-part4.php

[woodbinepmi]

Both the Australian and Jockey Club study make the error of using skewed distributions on ability giving biased results. Industry studies have a tendency to "prove"what is economically to their advantage. As statisticians say, "He who pays you sways you".
Lacking evidence from unbiased studies I will go with the medical knowledge on the effect of excessive stress on immature bones and joints.
There's a reason why Arabians are not allowed to race until, they are 3YOs

http://www.horsefund.org/horse-racing-racing-babies-part4.php
It all depends on the breeding of the horse, who's handling the horse, what surface they are racing on (hard or soft) and how much excursion they have to use to compete early in their career. If you start on one before their bones have closed you will have problems later on. I personally wish they wouldn't start racing until they are three, but we all know that's not going to happen. Too many owners want those 2 year old checks to cover expenses.

[castaway01]

Both the Australian and Jockey Club study make the error of using skewed distributions on ability giving biased results. Industry studies have a tendency to "prove"what is economically to their advantage. As statisticians say, "He who pays you sways you".
Lacking evidence from unbiased studies I will go with the medical knowledge on the effect of excessive stress on immature bones and joints.
There's a reason why Arabians are not allowed to race until, they are 3YOs

http://www.horsefund.org/horse-racing-racing-babies-part4.php

Reality is the opposite of what you claim though. Horses raced much more at age 2 50 years ago than they do now, yet had longer careers with more races. For example, Seabiscuit ran 35 times as a 2-year-old and raced until age 7. That was typical back then. Spare me the skewed distributions---real life proves your theory wrong.

[bobphilo]

Reality is the opposite of what you claim though. Horses raced much more at age 2 50 years ago than they do now, yet had longer careers with more races. For example, Seabiscuit ran 35 times as a 2-year-old and raced until age 7. That was typical back then. Spare me the skewed distributions---real life proves your theory wrong.

Spare me your irrelevances. Your version of "real life"' is contradicted by the research. Do you even know how to interpret research properly?
Horses were much sounder back then and could better stand up to the stress of racing. By the way, Seabiscuit never raced on Lasix as it was illegal in the days of the iron horses. Why do you think all the top trainers today space out their horses races? Breeding only for speed rather than soundness, too early racing and modern abuse of Lasix has made today's Thoroughbred a frail creature.

[Redboard]

Way too early. Plenty of more races still to be run before the 2017 Derby hype begins. the Haskel, Travers, Breeder's Cup, etc.
IMO Derby hype begins too early just like the Presidential election campaigns.

Right you are. The season has just begun. I like the summer races leading up to the Breeders cup better than the derby trail.

[depalma113]

Spare me your irrelevances. Your version of "real life"' is contradicted by the research. Do you even know how to interpret research properly?
Horses were much sounder back then and could better stand up to the stress of racing. By the way, Seabiscuit never raced on Lasix as it was illegal in the days of the iron horses. Why do you think all the top trainers today space out their horses races? Breeding only for speed rather than soundness, too early racing and modern abuse of Lasix has made today's Thoroughbred a frail creature.

Adjusted for inflation, Seabiscuit would have earned $89,998 per start.

American Pharoah earned $786,390 per start.

Horses don't race every week because they don't have to. It has nothing to do with soundness. It has everything to do with the purse size.

[clocker7]

Spare me your irrelevances. Your version of "real life"' is contradicted by the research. Do you even know how to interpret research properly?
Horses were much sounder back then and could better stand up to the stress of racing. By the way, Seabiscuit never raced on Lasix as it was illegal in the days of the iron horses. Why do you think all the top trainers today space out their horses races? Breeding only for speed rather than soundness, too early racing and modern abuse of Lasix has made today's Thoroughbred a frail creature.
I think that you are conflating soundness with the breed's staying qualities.

Thoroughbreds have always been unsound. But a portion of them were iron horses that harbored genetic short-turnaround capabilities. That was important during the mercenary era from roughly 1885 to WWII when economically-desperate people did desperate things.

Nobody with a clue wants to go back to those days. Lasix? LOLOL. Compared to what many horses were ingesting those days ... it is a placebo, if not a palliative.