Low priced eliminations

[cj]

Quick eliminations...

Stone closer (S type) on the dirt or speed burners (E type) on the turf at 3-1 or less. Sometimes they will beat you, but in the long run its a very valuable elimination. Distance is irrelevant.

[JackS]

CJ- Stone closers on turf or dirt are almost always a bet against especially if odds-on. These types do have a better chance on turf but it never surprises me when they make that very powerful stretch run, there is invaribly one horse that heads or noses them. Speed on the turf is even riskier. It seems seldom that any front runner wins these. I'm speaking in general terms. I'm sure there are tracks that favor speed on the turf .I have now and then played speed on the turf, but only at very long odds. I figure if your going to play a super longshot, you may as well have him in front and then pray he can hold on till the finish. Can't even remember the last time I cashed on one of these.

[andicap]

I love when people support some of the myths of racing.
I agree with CJ that taking 3-1 on an "E" horse on the turf is usually risky, but what about at the Belmont meet where at 9F, 36% of the last 14 races have won wire to wire?

Or at CD where 40% of the last 10 races at 8.5F have been won that way?

(I'm talking only firm turf here BTW)

Sure there are lots of other distances where W2W winners are generally sub-20% (6% at 8.5f at Monmouth for example) but I love betting speed on the turf since most people think its a loser. Lone speed is dangerous on the turf as well as dirt, especially when speed is holding on harder turf courses.

Overall CJ's point is sound. I usually do demand better than 3-1 odds on most of my bets, anyway. But think of this: at 10f this meet, two of four winners went flagpole to finish.

[cj]

Andi,

Just because they went wire to wire does not mean they were pure E type horses. Many times, they are E/P or even P. Check on that and I think you'll find a different story.

This is why you must look at PPs and charts at the same time to make useful comparisons.

My main point was the odds anyway. Its a great way to eliminate the takeout.

[Tee]

How about the short priced mdn going a route of ground for the first time against foes that have already done so a few times but obviously have just failed to cross the finish line first?

[mountainman]

my pet short priced "pitches" are class droppers that finished in the money last time..and the better they ran, the faster i toss them..true, each case is individual, and sharp,well meant droppers steal purses everyday across america..but in the long run, these types will underperform at overbet odds..it's simple psychology, and ainslie said it best.."nobody sells something for 5 cents that is really worth 6 cents"...............................with rare exception(say a negative speed bias or suicide pace scenario) stretch runners in sprint races also get the red pen when the odds are short, as do favored speed-types without a clear edge in quickness.....like the simplicity of this thread, none of the self-conscious pontification that sometimes permeates postings here at pace advantage...

[Valuist]

Even money or lower horses in Maiden and Maiden claiming races are solid tossouts. Why take such a low price on a horse that has never won? Even Secretariat and Sunday Silence got beat in their first starts.

[JackS]

teeitup- I love the play you describe but at short odds would probably avoid. Another great play in Mdn's is the E type who failed at 5 or 6 furlongs by fading badly near the wire in his last sprint and today will try the route for the first time. An obvious toss out by many and an obvious consideration for me.