View Full Version : Belmont 2016 Contenders / Value Line / Analysis

06-11-2016, 02:01 PM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg Exaggerator (9-5)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/3.jpg Cherry Wine (6-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/10.jpg Lani (6-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/4.jpg Suddenbreakingnews (14-1)

The only truly interesting thing about this race, in my opinion, is how much can Lani improve today, and how much, if any, Exaggerator may regress. Both horses have been improving in almost every start, but Lani has been showing the most improvement in my opinion, while Exaggerator seems to be topping out. When you factor in that Lani is a headcase by all accounts, if his head is actually in the game today, I predict a breakout performance, no matter if the track comes up wet or dry (60% chance of thunderstorms by post time).

We all know Exaggerator seems to relish the off going, but Lani ran a pretty good race in the Preakness over a soaked strip. The value will certainly be there with Lani in my opinion, and he's the horse I will focus on in trying to score out and make up for my two other rather dismal Triple Crown efforts thus far this year.

The one problem in all this is that this race seems to be seriously lacking in terms of up-front speed, so neither the closer Exaggerator or the plodder Lani will benefit from the pace scenario. Gettysburg, the lone speed, is awful. Those projected to track behind him aren't any better.

The winner, one would think traditionally, isn't going to come from all that far back given this scenario, so that usually would hurt the chances of the favorite and my value pick.

But even given that pace scenario, NONE of the horses anywhere near the pace seem to have a chance. They are, as a group, THAT BAD.

So I'm throwing the pace scenario out the window, especially in this mile and a half event. It won't have much impact. I think this race will run very much to form, with Exaggerator having an excellent chance at winning, but, alas, leaving no value to be had.

Thus, Lani will be where the bulk of my money is concentrated, and I'll use Exaggerator, Cherry Wine and Suddenbreakingnews all around him.

Good luck!