Brexit - British Union Leave or Stay

[barn32]

On June 23rd England will vote on whether or not to leave the European Union which they have been a member of since 1973.

Brexit-or British Exit for short is playing havoc with the stock, bond and currency markets as witnessed by the poll that just came out the results of which were seen in Friday's trading.

In this poll the leave factions jumped to 10 point lead, 55-45.

However the betting markets only changed to 1 to 6 from 1 to 7 in favor of remain. This equates to about a 72% chance of remain.

A high voter turnout is predicted to favor remain, while a low voter turnout will favor the leave.

In a recent Scottish referendum the side favored by the polls lost to the side favored by The bookies.

The bond market is gone up eight out of the last 10 days, indicating how nervous people are about this vote.

My bet is with the bookies and the British Union will remain, which should lead to the bond market going down.

[reckless]

The Great Britain exit from the European Union is now more likely to happen in light of the Muslim terrorist attack in Orlando. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

We are getting closer and closer to the dissolution of the EU, thank God. Exactly when this happens I have no clue but it will be sooner rather than later.

Long live an individual country's right of sovereignty, borders, language and culture.

[tanner12oz]

Its going to happen sooner or later..was kinda a hair brained idea from the start

[barn32]

The Great Britain exit from the European Union is now more likely to happen in light of the Muslim terrorist attack in Orlando. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

World events can change everything.

[Valuist]

Sounds like a slight lead for the "leave" faction. And if GB does exit, will it trigger other nations to exit as well?

http://kingworldnews.com/gerald-celente-the-next-8-days-may-change-the-world-forever/

[barn32]

The Leave/Stay Brexit faction has lost a lot of ground. From 72% for stay down to 58%, with about 7 days to go. Still ahead, but narrowing considerably.

The markets do not like uncertainty. World events are playing havoc with bonds and equities. Gold is spiking upward.

Bonds are up this morning almost two full handles.

Triple witching tomorrow (I think). Markets usually rise on triple witching, so we'll just have to see if that's what happens tomorrow.

[I owned 200 shares of LNKD and sold out a week before the MSFT buyout. Cost me around 12K.]

[barn32]

Brexit Campaigns Suspended After Labour Lawmaker Jo Cox Shot

"Both sides suspended campaigning on whether Britain should leave the European Union after a lawmaker was attacked in her district.

Jo Cox, a member of the opposition Labour Party, was hospitalized in a critical condition, with the Press Association reporting she had been shot twice Thursday in West Yorkshire, northern England. Local police said they had arrested a 52-year-old man in the area. It was unclear if the incident was related to the June 23 referendum."

Link (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-16/rancor-rises-in-brexit-battle-as-poll-shows-53-back-leave)

No idea if it's related but the stock and bond markets have come roaring back.

And the stay faction has gone up 5% from 58% to 63% in a very short time.

It was just reported that Jo Cox has died.

[ebcorde]

would hate the EU. so what happens to NATO if they vote split

I used to work with Swiss guys. once we were analyzing one of our own products made in England by our Associate company. Swiss guy looked at me, sneered and said "it's British" :p 100% disapproval.

[ebcorde]

Worldwide, anything the UK makes China can make much cheaper.

They'll have to negotiate new Trade deals with the EU, I don't expect the EU to forgive.

Turkey will most likely then join the EU irregardless of Terrorism fears.

I laugh because in another 10 years Scotland Wales and the two Ireland could split from the UK.

The world is breaking up into economic regions. US, China, EU , with Russia, Japan and Brazil, India , South Korea on the fringe. The UK will be left out.


The real question is who will the middle east lean towards The EU, Chinese and Russians are working hard to leverage against the US in the middle east

[barn32]

The market has completely reversed today. From down over 100 to up over 100.

Whether this is due in part to the shooting in the UK, (which might have a positive effect for the stay faction, which in turn would steady the markets) or triple witching, I think that triple witching is the deciding factor. (There is a logical reason for triple witching having this effect and it has to do with the unwinding of positions, etc.)

Tomorrow should be another big up day.

[reckless]

I am not sure if the MP who was killed today will have any affect in the Brexit vote. But, I am willing to bet it doesn't have any affect at all since she was killed while trying to intervene in a two-person argument.

I did hear this morning that globalist banker to the 1 percenters and the world's largest corporations, Jamie Dimond of JP Morgan Chase, has visited Britain recently pleading to voters to vote to stay and remain in the European Union.

I hope the good people of Britain understand that when a goniv like Jamie Dimond says that staying in the EZ is the smart move, you can bet it's the worst thing on earth for the everyday citizens of this once-great nation.

The EU's interests and Chase bank's interest are not the best interest of the UK and its people.

[barahona44]

Worldwide, anything the UK makes China can make much cheaper.

They'll have to negotiate new Trade deals with the EU, I don't expect the EU to forgive.

Turkey will most likely then join the EU irregardless of Terrorism fears.

I laugh because in another 10 years Scotland Wales and the two Ireland could split from the UK.

The world is breaking up into economic regions. US, China, EU , with Russia, Japan and Brazil, India , South Korea on the fringe. The UK will be left out.


The real question is who will the middle east lean towards The EU, Chinese and Russians are working hard to leverage against the US in the middle east
Republic of Ireland has not been part of the UK for almost a century (1922).Ireland is also a member of the EU and there is little desire to leave.

25 + 6=1, baby!

[_______]

Republic of Ireland has not been part of the UK for almost a century (1922).Ireland is also a member of the EU and there is little desire to leave.

25 + 6=1, baby!

Ireland was officially under the soveignty of British royalty until 1937 and the Irish monarchy (same person) until 1948.

Admittedly nitpicking.

[_______]

And I'm sure you know the error in the equation you posted.

[horses4courses]

Ireland was officially under the soveignty of British royalty until 1937 and the Irish monarchy (same person) until 1948.

Admittedly nitpicking.

Technically, you're right - in practice, ehhh.
It was dominion status in name only.
For all intents and purposes, Britain ruled only
in the 6 counties of Ulster from 1922.
The British monarchy had no influence or bearing
in Dublin from that point onwards.

The Irish Free State was established then,
and was dissolved in 1937 when the constitution
of the Republic of Ireland came into being.

As far as the Brexit vote goes,
Britain leaving the EU would be, at least,
a short term disaster for the Irish economy.

Chances are it won't come to that.
The vote figures to be closer than many
would have thought months ago,
but Britain should still remain in the EU when it's done.

[_______]

Technically, you're right - in practice, ehhh.
It was dominion status in name only.
For all intents and purposes, Britain ruled only
in the 6 counties of Ulster from 1922.
The British monarchy had no influence or bearing
in Dublin from that point onwards.

The Irish Free State was established then,
and was dissolved in 1937 when the constitution
of the Republic of Ireland came into being.

As far as the Brexit vote goes,
Britain leaving the EU would be, at least,
a short term disaster for the Irish economy.

Chances are it won't come to that.
The vote figures to be closer than many
would have thought months ago,
but Britain should still remain in the EU when it's done.

Like I said, it was nitpicking.

But the math was never 25 + 6. And today it's more like 29 + 5 city councils (more of less similar bodies to the counties) + 26 "unitary authorities" (which replaced the 6 counties in 1972) = 1

It probably won't fit on a bumper sticker.

[Ocala Mike]

Today's market rally (Dow up 240 as I type this) being attributed solely to the apparent shift in sentiment to "stay" from "leave."

[Valuist]

Technically, you're right - in practice, ehhh.
It was dominion status in name only.
For all intents and purposes, Britain ruled only
in the 6 counties of Ulster from 1922.
The British monarchy had no influence or bearing
in Dublin from that point onwards.

The Irish Free State was established then,
and was dissolved in 1937 when the constitution
of the Republic of Ireland came into being.

As far as the Brexit vote goes,
Britain leaving the EU would be, at least,
a short term disaster for the Irish economy.

Chances are it won't come to that.
The vote figures to be closer than many
would have thought months ago,
but Britain should still remain in the EU when it's done.

Why should Britain stay? Just what do they get out of it? It seems to benefit the weaker economies of southern Europe.

[barn32]

It looks like triple witching skipped a day. Bonds have sold off big two days in a row. Gold is down and equities are up.

I expect bonds will go down further once Brexit fails.

Currently, it's 74% in favor of stay up from 58% after the terrorist attack.

[PaceAdvantage]

What poll are you citing?

FT's average of polls has it dead even basically:

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

[Ocala Mike]

The bookies have "stay" as the big favorite; the late money is the smart money.

[reckless]

The promises given them (and all Europeans) by the political class, the one-world corporate globalists, the bankers and the Brussel elites have proven to be lies through and through. And now the UK faces a possible invasion of even more migrants, mostly from dangerous countries and cultures that will not assimilate.

Well I think the English people are smart enough to know that leaving the EU is what's best for them. The working class Brits know that their way of life is currently in the pits and their future looks even bleaker, thanks primarily to the EU.

When out-of-touch people like PM David Cameron, corrupt US bankers such as Jamie Dimon, a jock such as David Beckham and any empty headed entertainer or media celebrity tells the citizens to STAY because they just don't know any better, then the vote to Leave looks to me to be the overwhelming result.

I feel that tomorrow the English will indeed vote to Leave the EU and get their sovereignty back.

[_______]

The bookies have "stay" as the big favorite; the late money is the smart money.

Someone on CNBC yesterday mentioned that although the weight of betting has favored stay, the actual volume favors leave. Many more small bettors have taken the odds against fewer large bettors willing to lay them.

I certainly would be more interested in getting odds on a proposition that polling has shown as quite close. Even if you believed the chance of leave winning was only 40%, you are getting a premium to that in the offered odds.

This will be an interesting test for the betting markets. They are definitely telling a different story from public polls.

[horses4courses]

The promises given them (and all Europeans) by the political class, the one-world corporate globalists, the bankers and the Brussel elites have proven to be lies through and through. And now the UK faces a possible invasion of even more migrants, mostly from dangerous countries and cultures that will not assimilate.

Well I think the English people are smart enough to know that leaving the EU is what's best for them. The working class Brits know that their way of life is currently in the pits and their future looks even bleaker, thanks primarily to the EU.

When out-of-touch people like PM David Cameron, corrupt US bankers such as Jamie Dimon, a jock such as David Beckham and any empty headed entertainer or media celebrity tells the citizens to STAY because they just don't know any better, then the vote to Leave looks to me to be the overwhelming result.

I feel that tomorrow the English will indeed vote to Leave the EU and get their sovereignty back.

Spoken by a true master at the art of saying "no". :rolleyes:

Britain, btw, will still be in the EU come tomorrow. :ThmbUp:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Like Mark Twain didn't say, "IF voting mattered, they wouldn't let us do it...." Don't see the result of the vote having that much effect anyway, as the British politicians have already indicated that they'll stay in the EU.

What maybe does matter is that this provides a nice opportunity for shorting the market, as BREXIT "leave" has been goosing the indexes without any positive data/relief for the underlying support - the market is way overbought and at ridiculous prices relative to earnings.

A downward move may also occur once stock holders realize that the Fed has signaled, and is probably serious about, more rate hikes this year - in spite of what the tantrums of the markets want....

[JustRalph]

Spoken by a true master at the art of saying "no". :rolleyes:

Britain, btw, will still be in the EU come tomorrow. :ThmbUp:

They don't have the stones to leave

[highnote]

DOW is up 234 points today.

The brexit popular vote doesn't matter. Ultimately, the British parliament makes the decision.

[PaceAdvantage]

This seems to be a serious overreaction to the upside...gut opinion on my part, I have nothing real to base this on.

The only real move is to the downside in case of an exit. Does anyone really think the market has been waiting on the Brexit decision since May of 2015? :lol: :lol: :lol:

We can't seem to get over a significant hump on the charts...and I doubt the result of Brexit is going to be the thing that pushes this market to new highs...

So...anyone buying now is making a mistake in my opinion...but we shall see...

[tucker6]

So...anyone buying now is making a mistake in my opinion...but we shall see...
completely agree. The market smells of volatility right now. You should buy some energy stocks/funds though. Sideways now, but not much but upside over the next 1-3 years.

[highnote]

completely agree. The market smells of volatility right now. You should buy some energy stocks/funds though. Sideways now, but not much but upside over the next 1-3 years.

The market is up somewhere in the range of 12-15% since it's last dip a few months ago. There is not much upside remaining in this market. Sideways seems a good bet and then probably higher if Clinton is elected president because the market will view this as a continuation of Obama.

If Trump is elected it's hard to know which way the market will go. A lot more uncertainty with Trump.

Voters don't like uncertainty and that's why I think Clinton will win.

A Trump presidency would be a lot more interesting, though.

[barn32]

I wish it had dawned on me sooner, but I'm finally beginning to understand why Jimmy Rogers (and perhaps George Soros for that matter) were such successful traders. They were able to, early on, figure out the whys and wherefores of the big picture and made their bets accordingly.

[tucker6]

The market is up somewhere in the range of 12-15% since it's last dip a few months ago. There is not much upside remaining in this market. Sideways seems a good bet and then probably higher if Clinton is elected president because the market will view this as a continuation of Obama.

If Trump is elected it's hard to know which way the market will go. A lot more uncertainty with Trump.

Voters don't like uncertainty and that's why I think Clinton will win.

A Trump presidency would be a lot more interesting, though.
A continuation bet seems safe, and honestly that would probably work for both candidates. Despite the rhetoric, Trump will need to win over dems and the gop to get anything done. No small task. And if the gop maintains control of congress, Clinton will have the same problem. Status quo is strong with the force.

[horses4courses]

Early results point to a UK exit from the EU.
Too soon to call, but this will be very close.

I can't imagine the markets tomorrow if this holds up. :eek:

[barn32]

It's still early, but it appears now that I couldn't have been more wrong. It's a good thing I got out of my bonds today.

Now what?

How bad will things get?

[barn32]

Dow futures were down over 400, and now they are down less than 200. It's amazing the kind of volatility something like this generates.

[barn32]

And just like that stay is back in the lead 51-49, and 55-45 with the bookies.

[barn32]

Well, I'm going to bed. Right now, with 20% of the vote in, it's stay at 50.7 vs 49.3 for leave.

If stay starts pulling ahead as more votes come in watch the bonds and gold go down and equities go up.

We'll see in the morning.

[ebcorde]

Scotland should be allowed to vote again about staying in the UK, The Scots voted to stay in the EU. what a royal screwing by England. .

The Irish should go into the EU to screw the English over.

The EU has a lot of firepower , they easily/ can make it harder on the UK than the UK can hurt the EU.

[ebcorde]

These fools actually did it. They caused a MASS PANIC STOCK MARKET CRASH THERE WILL BE REVENGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ha ha ha I was right Scotland will re-consider splitting form the UK HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA. stupid English.

[horses4courses]

Stupid xenophobes.
Mass media has created a monster.

[whodoyoulike]

Just for reference:

S&P 500 close 06/23/16 2113.32 +1.34%
Nikkei as of this post time 15074.55 -7.17%
Shanghai as of this post 2857.58 -1.19%

S&P 500 future as of post 1999.00

I don't get the US move up today. This is just gambling.

Anyone make a move today and why?

[Valuist]

Just for reference:

S&P 500 close 06/23/16 2113.32 +1.34%
Nikkei as of this post time 15074.55 -7.17%
Shanghai as of this post 2857.58 -1.19%

S&P 500 future as of post 1999.00

I don't get the US move up today. This is just gambling.

Anyone make a move today and why?

The markets bought the media crap in the past couple days that "remain" would win. And the media got it wrong.

[Valuist]

These fools actually did it. They caused a MASS PANIC STOCK MARKET CRASH THERE WILL BE REVENGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ha ha ha I was right Scotland will re-consider splitting form the UK HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA. stupid English.

A big move in the futures should never be confused with a crash. And lets not forget the phony move up today. Take that out and the Dow would be down around 300. Big deal.

Gold up 5% in the futures. Definitely like that.

[barn32]

The markets certainly do hate uncertainty, and this is as uncertain as it gets.

Bonds were up 6 full handles!

Dow futures were down close to 600!

Gold up 63 points.

And the VIX is up 8 full points to 25

[ebcorde]

What happens to NATO? will NATO eventually break up?

seems to me the Brits have had enough of the Bush doctrine. They're very unhappy being led into Iraq by Bush. Do not expect the Brits to be on our right flank for the next Invasion in the middle east.

why wait 2 years leave tomorrow.

[Ocala Mike]

Another great buying opportunity, as the undercapitalized fools playing with their rent money head for the exits.

[newtothegame]

What happens to NATO? will NATO eventually break up?

seems to me the Brits have had enough of the Bush doctrine. They're very unhappy being led into Iraq by Bush. Do not expect the Brits to be on our right flank for the next Invasion in the middle east.

why wait 2 years leave tomorrow.

Lmao...you libs are too much!! So, this is all about Bush doctrine???
Wasn't it Obama who was recently over there telling the brits they needed to stay in the EU?
Guess the Brits didn't like what Obama had to say then!!

[ebcorde]

Lmao...you libs are too much!! So, this is all about Bush doctrine???
Wasn't it Obama who was recently over there telling the brits they needed to stay in the EU?
Guess the Brits didn't like what Obama had to say then!!


too much?
1. Recall Tony Blair backing Bush up 100% about Iraq. what was Britain's reward? 20 years of war with no end. And they're well aware of it when they see their debt. The average working Brit hates America because they got it wrong.


2 Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi interned in a Prison camp by George Bush. While in the camp becomes the founder of ISIS and is set free by Bush. wow, Perfect candidate for Guantanamo, and they let him go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


3. ISIS forces Syrians and Iraqis to flee to Europe. I don't blame Obama, he does not want to borrow trillions from China to fix Bush's mess. Trump is the CPA genius, let him borrow from China and fight over there.


4. Britain might never again follow America into a war. 100% certain they will never send troops to a Trump war.

5. 2014 Scotland voted to stay in the UK because Cameron promised they would stay in the EU, Scotland voted for staying in the EU. They will get to vote again to split from the UK

6. N Ireland hates England bye-bye

7. 3 billion Asians and Putin are celebrating , the EU is the largest financial broker, not if they break up Breaking up the EU is like breaking up the US.

8. why wait 2 years to leave, do it now.

9, well then US States may as well leave the US. California is the 6th largest economy in the world. They don't need the other 49 states.

10. A loss of 500,000 jobs from EU based companies forced to leave the UK and new trade agreements with each European country. make no sense to me.

11. A complete breakdown and no cooperation with our allies. WE ARE ALL ALONE MILITARILY



The EU was always under threat. My British co-workers spoke poorly about the EU in the 90's. All those countries hate each other. No surprise. I never expected it to last this long.

Still it's a great idea and in the long run Britain will suffer.

[reckless]

Spoken by a true master at the art of saying "no". :rolleyes:

Britain, btw, will still be in the EU come tomorrow. :ThmbUp:

Venturing into the financial and geo-political neighborhoods now, huh?

You're proving once more how little you know -- about everything!

As I reminder, I have been near-totally 100% accurate on just about every post I made on financial and geo-political matters in this thread, and I have been posting them for all to read early and before the fact ... unlike most of us here.

'Good call' on the UK Brexit vote too. :lol: :lol:

[ebcorde]

Don't get out now obviously. But get out in the early fall, late summer for a little while. I see a short term plunge followed by a recovery , then a big drop
on new some negative concerns. Be careful I smell a harvest coming. I'm not a day trader.

too many areas to scare off Wall Street. China's economy, Middle East, Trump and the EU.

Wall Street is advertising the plunge as an opportunity to buy. As a salesman would.

[horses4courses]

Venturing into the financial and geo-political neighborhoods now, huh?

You're proving once more how little you know -- about everything!

As I reminder, I have been near-totally 100% accurate on just about every post I made on financial and geo-political matters in this thread, and I have been posting them for all to read early and before the fact ... unlike most of us here.

'Good call' on the UK Brexit vote too. :lol: :lol:

So....you guessed right, swami.
Good for you.

Laugh it up, while you still can.

[Valuist]

What happens to NATO? will NATO eventually break up?

seems to me the Brits have had enough of the Bush doctrine. They're very unhappy being led into Iraq by Bush. Do not expect the Brits to be on our right flank for the next Invasion in the middle east.

why wait 2 years leave tomorrow.

It has ZERO to do with Bush. They got tired of the edicts out of Brussels and wanted their country back. Considering they are the 5th biggest economy in the world, the EU needs them a lot more than the UK needs the EU.

[PaceAdvantage]

This seems to be a serious overreaction to the upside...gut opinion on my part, I have nothing real to base this on.

The only real move is to the downside in case of an exit. Does anyone really think the market has been waiting on the Brexit decision since May of 2015? :lol: :lol: :lol:

We can't seem to get over a significant hump on the charts...and I doubt the result of Brexit is going to be the thing that pushes this market to new highs...

So...anyone buying now is making a mistake in my opinion...but we shall see...Let's see, when I posted this, the futures were at 2105...they went as high as 2119 before the crash, so that's a pretty big stop (14 points)....BUT...

If you had shorted just one contract after I posted the above, you could have easily cleared $4k or more before the sun came up...lol

[PaceAdvantage]

Britain, btw, will still be in the EU come tomorrow. :ThmbUp:Ooops...I guess technically though, they still are...and I'm sure they'll try like hell to deny the people their vote...somehow...

[reckless]

It has ZERO to do with Bush. They got tired of the edicts out of Brussels and wanted their country back. Considering they are the 5th biggest economy in the world, the EU needs them a lot more than the UK needs the EU.

You nailed Valuist!

What I heard on TV from the liberal know-it-alls --much too often, btw-- was how bad this important election was for the British and the world economy in general. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Does anyone besides these clowns, plus Obama, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and the EU central banks really think for a second that countries such as the USA, Germany, Norway, Switzerland, Russia, India, Italy, China, etc., etc. will not want to trade with the UK ever again? :lol:

[reckless]

So....you guessed right, swami.
Good for you.

Laugh it up, while you still can.

Every prediction I ever made on this web site was never based on a guess.

Every prediction I made included sound reasoning and thought -and in all cases I put money in when it counted-- unlike the empty laughable comments and insults you regularly make, not to mention the juvenile cartoons that you're most known for.

[ebcorde]

You nailed Valuist!

What I heard on TV from the liberal know-it-alls --much too often, btw-- was how bad this important election was for the British and the world economy in general. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Does anyone besides these clowns, plus Obama, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and the EU central banks really think for a second that countries such as the USA, Germany, Norway, Switzerland, Russia, India, Italy, China, etc., etc. will not want to trade with the UK ever again? :lol:


5th Largest AND DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. They were #1. once upon a time, so #5 sucks. By mid century they wont be in the top 10.

Cameron was a good conservative But now the typical simple solution Conservatives have won out ... JUST QUIT

It's a withdrawal from the world, it's a signal that we the UK will no longer be a real Military Power. It's like retiring from a job. They just checked out. The US Military is on its own, that's how we get hurt.

Ask any Brit what they think of the WMD Iraq war they got sucked into. They'll never do that again.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ask any Brit what they think of the WMD Iraq war they got sucked into. They'll never do that again.Yup...those Democrats screwed the Brits pretty good with Iraq...starting with the Clinton Administration

[ebcorde]

Yup...those Democrats screwed the Brits pretty good with Iraq...starting with the Clinton Administration


well instead of paying for more military, they'll invest in getting their teeth fixed, and begging Scotland not to have a another referendum :lol:

[Valuist]

5th Largest AND DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. They were #1. once upon a time, so #5 sucks. By mid century they wont be in the top 10.

Cameron was a good conservative But now the typical simple solution Conservatives have won out ... JUST QUIT

It's a withdrawal from the world, it's a signal that we the UK will no longer be a real Military Power. It's like retiring from a job. They just checked out. The US Military is on its own, that's how we get hurt.

Ask any Brit what they think of the WMD Iraq war they got sucked into. They'll never do that again.

They were once #1, and were the biggest creditor nation in the world, and the Pound Sterling was the world's reserve currency. Fast forward to post WWII. The once biggest creditor in the world, they now were the biggest debtor, and the Pound was replaced by the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Fast forward 70 years or so, the U.S., who had been the biggest creditor nation in the world is now the biggest debtor.

The U.S. dollar, strong in the very short term compared to the ultra fragile Euro, will be replaced as the world's currency. And when that happens, the $hit will hit the fan.

[ebcorde]

They were once #1, and were the biggest creditor nation in the world, and the Pound Sterling was the world's reserve currency. Fast forward to post WWII. The once biggest creditor in the world, they now were the biggest debtor, and the Pound was replaced by the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Fast forward 70 years or so, the U.S., who had been the biggest creditor nation in the world is now the biggest debtor.

The U.S. dollar, strong in the very short term compared to the ultra fragile Euro, will be replaced as the world's currency. And when that happens, the $hit will hit the fan.

How much of that debt is war? World war II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq I,II,III, Afghanistan, Cold war, 1,000 military bases, 600 billion Military budget, and CIA/NSA budgets of 50-80 billion a year.

How much will the UK spend on defense? I say half of what they pay now, they have a EU as a buffer and the the channel. And who Knows maybe the Germans finally take off the shackles and get back into the War game to protect themselves. That would be funny.

A for the future of the EU , Turkey will have a hard time. Muslims don't like Women to work. I expect the unexpected like maybe the Russians joining .
Of course not now, but in 10-20 years... I could see an EU from the English Channel to the Bering straits.


The Syrian problem made it worse. too bad. kinda funny that Arab refugees took down the EU. :lol:

[whodoyoulike]

The markets bought the media crap in the past couple days that "remain" would win. And the media got it wrong.

My gambling comment was because of the huge upside move on Thursday. I was looking at it as a 50/50 (stay or leave) proposition except the referendum was to determine if they should leave which I felt gave leaving the edge otherwise what initiated the need for a vote. The huge upside move was just gambling which means these sophisticated money managers were just gambling and btw, they still received their commissions.

I felt the 50/50 leaned towards one should do nothing to their portfolio which is the reason I asked if someone did do something why did they do it.

[Valuist]

How much of that debt is war? World war II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq I,II,III, Afghanistan, Cold war, 1,000 military bases, 600 billion Military budget, and CIA/NSA budgets of 50-80 billion a year.

How much will the UK spend on defense? I say half of what they pay now, they have a EU as a buffer and the the channel. And who Knows maybe the Germans finally take off the shackles and get back into the War game to protect themselves. That would be funny.

A for the future of the EU , Turkey will have a hard time. Muslims don't like Women to work. I expect the unexpected like maybe the Russians joining .
Of course not now, but in 10-20 years... I could see an EU from the English Channel to the Bering straits.


The Syrian problem made it worse. too bad. kinda funny that Arab refugees took down the EU. :lol:

We know the debt was $9 trillion when Obama took office. It's at $19.2 trillion right now.

As for 20 years from now, there won't be an EU. Sweden and France will be next....nobody wants to hang around on a sinking ship.

[reckless]

We know the debt was $9 trillion when Obama took office. It's at $19.2 trillion right now.

As for 20 years from now, there won't be an EU. Sweden and France will be next....nobody wants to hang around on a sinking ship.

Just for talk purposes Valuist as I agree w/you... but a couple of my thoughts:

The EU will be long gone within a few years, not 20 nor even 10. I know there will be a time lag to wind all this down but it was inevitable a few years back that the EU was a goner for sure.

You mention Sweden and France... what about the PIGS countries: Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain? They all want to high tail out of the EU as well!!

Think about this... you have the financial supporters and the givers into the EU pool --the UK, Sweden and France, looking to leave, and you have the financial benefactors and the takers wanting to leave, the PIGS, as well.

Most of EU members are also fed up with the vulgar, ugly, corrupt Belguim politicians making policy, and they are also scared of becoming totally beholden to the creeps in Germany being the sole financial and manufacturing engine of The Continent.

The debt clock isn't the only thing ticking... the dissolution of the EU is clicking too.

[Capper Al]

It's the same old pattern- the rich take more than their fair share, the masses get angry, the frustration will either lead to a positive change or revolution or war.

[Valuist]

Just for talk purposes Valuist as I agree w/you... but a couple of my thoughts:

The EU will be long gone within a few years, not 20 nor even 10. I know there will be a time lag to wind all this down but it was inevitable a few years back that the EU was a goner for sure.

You mention Sweden and France... what about the PIGS countries: Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain? They all want to high tail out of the EU as well!!

Think about this... you have the financial supporters and the givers into the EU pool --the UK, Sweden and France, looking to leave, and you have the financial benefactors and the takers wanting to leave, the PIGS, as well.

Most of EU members are also fed up with the vulgar, ugly, corrupt Belguim politicians making policy, and they are also scared of becoming totally beholden to the creeps in Germany being the sole financial and manufacturing engine of The Continent.

The debt clock isn't the only thing ticking... the dissolution of the EU is clicking too.

Agree on all counts. It certainly won't take 20 years for the EU to be finished.

[Pensacola Pete]

You're assuming that the U.K. will actually leave EU. That hasn't happened, and I doubt that it will. The referendum isn't legally binding; it's technically an advisory by the people. Parliament can exercise its sovereignty and vote to not leave EU. That is likely to be what happens. If the referendum were along the lines of 65% leave 35% stay, it would probably be a different matter, but with the vote that close, the House of Commons could, if it wanted, choose to ignore Brexit and vote to stay. Another possibility would be to draw up a different referendum and have it voted on.

[PaceAdvantage]

Let's see, when I posted this, the futures were at 2105...they went as high as 2119 before the crash, so that's a pretty big stop (14 points)....BUT...

If you had shorted just one contract after I posted the above, you could have easily cleared $4k or more before the sun came up...lolAnd just like that, the entire Brexit market fall has been eradicated in three and a half trading days.

Like I said...a mere drop in the bucket that drop was...meant basically nothing. It was as much an overreaction as was the rise leading into the Brexit vote.

Brexit was an excuse for traders to make money...means nothing to the market in the long run.

[Valuist]

You're assuming that the U.K. will actually leave EU. That hasn't happened, and I doubt that it will. The referendum isn't legally binding; it's technically an advisory by the people. Parliament can exercise its sovereignty and vote to not leave EU. That is likely to be what happens. If the referendum were along the lines of 65% leave 35% stay, it would probably be a different matter, but with the vote that close, the House of Commons could, if it wanted, choose to ignore Brexit and vote to stay. Another possibility would be to draw up a different referendum and have it voted on.

Highly unlikely they won't leave. If your scenario was imminent, it's likely Cameron wouldn't have resigned.

[barn32]

Brexit was an excuse for traders to make money...means nothing to the market in the long run.The bond and gold/silver markets would disagree with you.

[Valuist]

The bond and gold/silver markets would disagree with you.

Gold and silver were in a strong uptrend that started months before Brexit.

After yet another terrorist attack in France, a country overwhelmed by immigration in recent years, I think the Brits clearly made the right decision.