Hong Kong June. 9th Happy Valley

[woodbinepmi]

Special day racing today in Hong Kong for Dragon Boat Festival at the Happy Valley.
Hot and muggy day, but no rain in the forecast. (It has started raining in the last few minutes)

Here are links for past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20160609_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html
Here is a link for video (it's free, but an account is required):
https://www.racing.com/racingplus

[Nitro]

Good morning Woody! I'll join in for a few with you.
Good Luck today!

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 Class 4 1200 Metres

:2: Globe Trotter (5-2) Just got up um his last after getting a perfect trip and holding off the favourite (who has since come back and won in his next race), gets a lucky rail draw and should be on the lead early on.

:9: Mr. Kool (4-1) gets Moreira and an equipment change of cheek pieces, has a bad tendency of not changing leads in the lane though.

:5: Haymaker (9-2) gets the bug girl back after her suspension, so should show some early speed in here, taking the hood off trying to get him to relax a little more.

:2: over :9: :5: over :1: :3: :4:

[kevb]

Yo Woodbine and Nitro.

Race 1:
WS :3:

[woodbinepmi]

Good morning Woody! I'll join in for a few with you.
Good Luck today!
Glad to see you will be joining me tonight, was hoping you would show.
You too Kev.

[Nitro]

R#1 – 2-5 W/ 9-1-3-4

[Parkview_Pirate]

Evening Gents.

I'm not too savvy with the Valley - haven't bet but maybe three races there in my life. Will sit back and watch the action for the most part, and maybe mooch a couple of plays from you guys. Assuming inside speed does well.

Kinda like the :3: dog in the first.

[Nitro]

R#1 – 2-5 W/ 9-1-3-4
Results

R# 1 = 1-4-8-11 - Nothing in that one – I should have done a full Quinnella w/All
Winner got some good early action & there was great value there!

$2.00 QUINELLA – 1-4 - $71.20

[Nitro]

Hi there Kev & Parkview!

Good Luck this morning!

[woodbinepmi]

Race 2 Class 5 1200 Metres

Man, this is one ugly looking race (we do get them every once in a while in Hong Kong, not many though)

Favourite :9: Optimism (3-1) is 0 for 26 at Hong Kong and a 4% trainer leads him to the paddock. No thanks.

Don't trust anything in here, passing here.

[Unicorn]

Is there a free form for ml odds?

[Unicorn]

Is there a free form for ml odds?

TVG puts every horse at 99-1 ml. Not much help.

[woodbinepmi]

TVG puts every horse at 99-1 ml. Not much help.
They don't make a morning line there, betting starts 24 hours before racing, I usually give it about 5 to 6 hours for the betting to get a basic feel where the money will go.

[Unicorn]

I'm going to take a shot with the :7: race 2. Going to tread lightly though because I dont know what Im betting on.

[Nitro]

Is there a free form for ml odds?

TVG Offers the current odds:
http://basic.tvg.com/Open/RaceInformation/CurrentOddsResults.aspx

HK Jockey Club offer their Form Guide & Speed Map:
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html

Good Luck Unicorn!

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 4-9 W/ 12-7-5-11

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 2: Like the :5: - saver QP with the :4:

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 4-9 W/ 12-7-5-11
Results

R# 2 = 9-1-12-10 - WIN – No real action on the Placer

$2.00 WIN – 9 - $6.60

($2.00 QUINELLA – 1-9 - $45.20 Another decent Q price)

[kevb]

HKJC odds

Shows curren t by default, but there is a dropdown menu to change to "pre-sell odds" Above and to the right of race numbers.

http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx&lang=en&dv=local

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 Class 4 1000 Metres

:1: Fantastico (10-1) Not too keen on the draw and the rider, but like the price. Only ran 2 lengths behind Back In Black who is the early betting favourite in the 10th race Class 2 (going for the Hong Kong record today with 6 races in a year).

:2: Moment of Power (4-5) Need to lead type that might have some company on the front end with the bug girl also on a speed ball breaking from the outside where she will be forced early. This one looked to be beaten by the weight allowance in his last.

:8: Lyric Ace (9-1) Has been off and should be on the lead, was a quick pull up in his last in February while racing against a young very nice runner Mr Stunning, the 1st, 2nd and 5th came out of that race and won next time out.

:1: Over :2: :8: Over :5: :6: :11: :12:

[Unicorn]

# :5: FISH N' CHIPS WP

[kevb]

Race 3:

Q :2: :5: :7: :8: box

[Nitro]

R# 3 - 2-7 W/ 8-5-4-9

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 3: :5: each way, who should like a bit of water on the track, and a saver bomb QP :4: :5:

[kevb]

Good hit Unicorn!

[Unicorn]

Ah crap 10-1... 5 mins later 8-1. Figures.

[Nitro]

R# 3 - 2-7 W/ 8-5-4-9
Nice call guys! Looks like we all got a piece of that one.

Results

R# 3 = 5-2-6-11 - QUIN

$2.00 QUINELLA – 2-5 - $18.10

[Unicorn]

Since you guys are up. Do you fiddle around with the AUS tracks too? When Hong Kong is running, AUS looks to be about the only other thing to bet on racing wise?

[Nitro]

Ah crap 10-1... 5 mins later 8-1. Figures.
You shouldn't have bet so much on that one! ;)

[Unicorn]

It looks like it's not even worth betting on TVG though. Pools are way too low.

[woodbinepmi]

Good on ya, Unicorn and Parkview nice price there. Love the Valley.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Ah crap 10-1... 5 mins later 8-1. Figures.

Could have been worse. A lot of times those late steam horses, or "brown lamp" specials, can get their odds cut in half in the last couple of minutes.....

I'm just glad I didn't jinx you playing the :5: .... :)

[Unicorn]

You shouldn't have bet so much on that one! ;)

I'll tell you what. If someone wanted to bet big this is definitely the right track.

[woodbinepmi]

It looks like it's not even worth betting on TVG though. Pools are way too low.
It's comingled into the Hong Kong pools, that is a prerequisite for anyone to take bets from Hong Kong is that it goes into their pools.

[Nitro]

Since you guys are up. Do you fiddle around with the AUS tracks too? When Hong Kong is running, AUS looks to be about the only other thing to bet on racing wise?
It's not for me because the betting pools here are not co-mingled, and the pools here are very often different then those in Australia.

[Unicorn]

It's comingled into the Hong Kong pools, that is a prerequisite for anyone to take bets from Hong Kong is that it goes into their pools.

Oh sorry... I was talking about the AUS pools.

[kevb]

I thought all US ADWs were co-mingling pools with HK. Xpressbet show $2.6 million win pool for the last race.

[Nitro]

I'll tell you what. If someone wanted to bet big this is definitely the right track.
You got that right! I have no problem betting $20 & $30 Quinellas on races where the value looks decent!

[Nitro]

I thought all US ADWs were co-mingling pools with HK. Xpressbet show $2.6 million win pool for the last race.
Yes that's true, but I think Unicorn was referring to the Australian pools.

[Unicorn]

What's the difference between something like one of the 3 major races of the triple crown pool wise to Hong Kong?

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 Class 4 1650 Metres

:2: The Sylph (3-2) Deja vous, looks like the winner of the 2nd race, winless horse at HK with Ferraris and Moreira. Speed figures are much higher than the rest, my trip notes on his last: Rank while wide, no chance beaten by better trip, finished on wrong lead. Can't take those odds.

Going to make a SMALL win play on :6: Lightning And Gold (5-1) made a middle move in his last, gets the rail.

[Unicorn]

Race 4 # :12: LAUGHING LORD WP

[woodbinepmi]

What's the difference between something like one of the 3 major races of the triple crown pool wise to Hong Kong?
They will most likely take in more today at the Valley than what Churchill took in on Derby day.

[Unicorn]

That's it... I got one winner so far and I'm hooked for tonight. :ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 4-12 W/ 6-2-1-11

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 4: :12: each way.

[Nitro]

What's the difference between something like one of the 3 major races of the triple crown pool wise to Hong Kong?
You can look this stat up for yourself, but considering that they only race twice a week for 9 months their total betting in all pools combined is 3 Billion US dollars more then ALL tracks combined in No America!

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 4-12 W/ 6-2-1-11

Results

R# 4 = 5-4-2-8 - Nothing in that one - No clues on that LS Winner

[woodbinepmi]

How bad is The Sylph, can't beat home a horse that spotted the field at least 4 lengths at the start? Moreira will stay on and they will continue to bet him. Don't get it, will be interesting on how the betting goes this next week when he is out with suspension.

[Nitro]

How bad is The Sylph, can't beat home a horse that spotted the field at least 4 lengths at the start? Moreira will stay on and they will continue to bet him. Don't get it, will be interesting on how the betting goes this next week when he is out with suspension.
I can't wait!

[kevb]

I am looking at the closers in this projected fast to good race. Commentators think track favors closers rallying wide.

I was thinking :5:, but parlay money has pounded him from 16;1 TO 7/2.

A little WS :3:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 5 Class 3 1200 Metres

:1: Happy Surveys (3-1) was on my watch list from his effort on May 7th, but was entered on the dirt was wide in the first turn and then got away from Prebble on the backside on a wet track. Throw out. Need #4 Excel Oneself to push the bug girl.

:11: Master King (9-2) has gone thru the classes pretty easily while racing o he lead, she had to lay on him in his last to get up though, betting on the Peter Principle in here.

:1: Over :11: :4: over :2: :3: :5: :6: :10:


I need a winner.

[Nitro]

R# 5 - 6-1 W/ 11-10-5-3

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 5: :2: each way, saver Qs with :1: :5: :11:

[Nitro]

R# 5 - 6-1 W/ 11-10-5-3

Results

R# 5 = 10-2-1-8 - Nothing in that one - No action on that LS Placer

[Nitro]

Well that’s it for me guys. The Happy Valley trial just wasn’t the same as Sha Tin.
As the announcers have mentioned Closers seem to have the edge this morning.
Here’s my remaining selections based on early tote action. Good luck with the rest!

R# 6 - 3-6 W/ 12-5-10-1-9

R# 7 - 9-2 W/ 5-6-10-11

R# 8 - 5-1 W/ 3-12-11-9

R# 9 - 7-4 W/ 8-10-2-4

R# 10 - 6-7 W/ 1-3-4-10

[woodbinepmi]

I too am going to bed early tonight.

My key plays tonight are:

Race 7 :2: Fantastic Feeling
Race 8 :3: King Of Mongolia
Race :10: Fabulous One

Good night

[kevb]

Race 6:
I'll make my first Swinger or Quinella place bet:

SW :2: / ALL

SW :2: / :1::2::3::4::5::6::10:

[kevb]

OOPS. And Moreira and Jenny's top pick.

SW :2: / :8: :11:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 6: :9: each way, saver Qs with :8: :10: :11:

[kevb]

Race 7:

Q: :9: / :2::4::5::6::8:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 7: Each way on :5:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 6 results: :11: :3: :9: :4:
Race 7 results: :1: :4: :5: :6:

Argh. Two races in a row my horse ran third. Ran second four times Sat night betting Sha Tin. Grief.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 8: Taking a longshot here, medium sized bet on :10: each way.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 8 results: :8: :1: :3: :11:

Well, no agony there, as the :10: dog finished dead last.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 9: :6: with :2: :7:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 9 results: :11: :7: :4: :8:

:6: was on the lead in the lane, and faded to midpack.

Race 10: :4: with :1: :6: :11:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 10 results: :1: :3: :10: :5:

Another mid-pack finish by my pick to finish the night.