PDA

View Full Version : Exaggerator 9/5


Redboard
06-08-2016, 09:03 PM
I think 9/5 (1.8) is an accurate morning line and believe he will go off at that (maybe a little higher). I looked back to see which FAVORITES this century were around that number and found these who were between 1.2-2.5 (they all lost):

2013- Orb 2.2
2012- Dullahan 2.5
2010- Ice Box 1.85
2009- Mine That Bird 1.25
2002- War Emblem 1.25

Does anyone have an opinion whether Exaggerator is better/worse than these going into the race?

Bullet Plane
06-08-2016, 09:40 PM
I think Exaggerator is better and more versatile than the above horses.

With the possible exception of War Emblem, who I believe had trouble during the Belmont... went to his knees at the start of the race.

What he has in common with the above favorites, except for War Emblem..

is that he is a closer.

letswastemoney
06-08-2016, 10:05 PM
Hoping Exaggerator will flatten out like a pancake.

dilanesp
06-08-2016, 10:22 PM
I think Exaggerator is better and more versatile than the above horses.

With the possible exception of War Emblem, who I believe had trouble during the Belmont... went to his knees at the start of the race.

What he has in common with the above favorites, except for War Emblem..

is that he is a closer.

And it seems to me tremendously silly to make conclusions about Exaggerator based on 5 horses who went off at similar odds to his morning line.

horses4courses
06-08-2016, 10:26 PM
I think he will close nearer even money than 2-1.

Robert Fischer
06-08-2016, 10:32 PM
I think he will close nearer even money than 2-1.

I agree.
He will take some money.

AirNate012
06-09-2016, 10:24 AM
I agree.
He will take some money.

Double agreed. Even money-7/5, somewhere around there.

Valuist
06-09-2016, 10:25 AM
Oddschecker has him at roughly 7/5 with Suddenbreakingnews about 11/2.

Redboard
06-10-2016, 03:06 PM
As Bullet Plane mentioned, except for War Emblem who was a front runner as well as going for a triple crown, the other four were closers like Exaggerator, and in the Belmont none of them got near the lead, except for Mine That Bird who actually took the lead in the stretch, before fading to third.

I would take all over Exaggerator except Dullahan who won the Bluegrass that year but it was on synthetic. Ice Box skipped the Preakness so he had that extra rest, which makes him more appealing to me.

2013- Orb 2.2- Finished third
Won the derby in the slop but was coming off a dull effort in the Preakness, which people blamed on being trapped on the rail.
2012- Dullahan 2.5- finished seventh
Won the Bluegrass, third in the Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness.
2010- Ice Box 1.85 - Finished ninth.
Won the Florida Derby, second in the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness.
2009- Mine That Bird 1.25 – Finished third
Won derby then second in the Preakness. With Calvin back aboard, it’s no wonder he went off at such low odds.
2002- War Emblem 1.25


I still say exaggerator will be closer to 2-1. Bettors will have "mudder" in their minds and if it's a nice day, others will be more attractive.

zico20
06-10-2016, 05:14 PM
I think he will close nearer even money than 2-1.

Agree also. He will go off at 4-5 or even money. He is the clear cut best horse in the race on paper, and the betting will reflect that.

linrom1
06-10-2016, 05:41 PM
Best single of the day, EXAGGERATOR- 11th horse in the 11th race.

Tom
06-10-2016, 08:40 PM
Watch him finish 11th! :eek: :lol:

TBD
06-11-2016, 04:52 AM
Tom that busted me up. Seeing nightmares of Big Brown. :faint:

depalma113
06-11-2016, 07:10 AM
Exaggerator is trying to be the first horse in 61 years to finish second
In the Derby and than go on to win the Preakness and Belmont. In contrast, there have been 4 Triple Crown winners over that same time period.

Shemp Howard
06-11-2016, 07:41 AM
Best single of the day, EXAGGERATOR- 11th horse in the 11th race.


I'll drink to that!!

bobphilo
06-11-2016, 12:02 PM
Exaggerator is trying to be the first horse in 61 years to finish second
In the Derby and than go on to win the Preakness and Belmont. In contrast, there have been 4 Triple Crown winners over that same time period.

Yet another misuse of statistics. Correlation is not the same as causation. What mysterious force is supposed to put a curse on Derby runner-ups?

Tom
06-11-2016, 06:53 PM
Watch him finish 11th! :eek: :lol:

Did I call that one or what? :lol: :lol: :lol:

rastajenk
06-11-2016, 07:27 PM
First thing I thought of when they showed the complete order of finish.

Redboard
06-11-2016, 09:27 PM
Watch him finish 11th! :eek: :lol:

Hilarious! Nice pick. Now if only there were a high eleven bet I would have keyed him in the bottom slot.

:ThmbUp:

It is the 11th day of the month too. It's hard to make this stuff up.

Exaggerator actually when off as 1.45 so I was wrong about him drifting up.

depalma113
06-12-2016, 05:22 AM
Yet another misuse of statistics. Correlation is not the same as causation. What mysterious force is supposed to put a curse on Derby runner-ups?

62 years and counting.

bobphilo
06-12-2016, 11:56 AM
62 years and counting.
Someone once showed that over a 60 odd year period their were no redheads born in Sydney, Australia when it rained in Toledo, Ohio. So if you were an expectant parent in Sydney I suppose you would check the weather report in Toledo. a little common sense, please.
I'm still waiting for for a true causal explanation.

bobphilo
06-12-2016, 12:06 PM
Did I call that one or what? :lol: :lol: :lol:
Quite a funny coincidence, though I bet some would make that a basis for their handicapping. :lol:
Reminds me of the story of the guy who was standing on the corner of 5th Ave and 55th Street when the #5 bus went buy. He rode it to the track and bet the #5 horse in the 5th race. Of course, the horse ran 5th. :D

AlBundy33
06-12-2016, 12:32 PM
Did I call that one or what? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Too bad there isn't a bet for that....lol. :D