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View Full Version : Whats wrong with Javier at Belmont ?


porchy44
06-05-2016, 06:33 PM
Javier Castellano considered to be one of the best riders in the game has been getting beat regularly at Belmont. for example today he was beat on a 3/1, 9/5, 5/2 9/2 3/1 and 3/1 . This is has been quite common occurrence most days at Belmont.
The Ortiz brothers has basically been "eating his lunch" this meet.
Will he come back at Saratoga and win with a lot these short priced horses ?

MONEY
06-05-2016, 08:09 PM
According to Equibase Castellano is doing OK.
As of this morning the top jockeys at Belmont are,

Jose Ortiz, 203 mounts 25%

J. Velazquez, 98 mounts 19%

J. Rosario, 108 mounts 19%

J. Castellano, 103 mounts 17%

Irad Ortiz, 147 mounts 16%

A horses chance of winning does not improved when there is a large sum of money bet on it.

SuperPickle
06-05-2016, 09:35 PM
Javier Castellano considered to be one of the best riders in the game has been getting beat regularly at Belmont. for example today he was beat on a 3/1, 9/5, 5/2 9/2 3/1 and 3/1 . This is has been quite common occurrence most days at Belmont.
The Ortiz brothers has basically been "eating his lunch" this meet.
Will he come back at Saratoga and win with a lot these short priced horses ?

I think you're not being totally accurate. First off he literally just started riding back in New York full time. He rode the winter in Florida, most of April at Keeneland and two of the first three weekends in May at Pimlico and Churchill. Basically prior to that he hasn't ridden full time in New York since the fall. And your comparing that to two guys who have ridden in NY all winter and spring winning about half the races carded sometimes more. The Ortiz brothers have better business in New York as they should.

Another factor is two year old racing just started and we all know who rides first call for Pletcher.

When you consider Corneilo and Prado got muscled out of New York and Lezcano can't buy a decent mount there's guys who are struggling but it ain't Javier.

Btw... In Saturday's 3rd he won with a horse who was 1 for 18 with ten plus tries at NX1 with a perfect ride to beat Irad and Chad Brown. He's still got it.

AltonKelsey
06-05-2016, 10:21 PM
I was thinking the same thing.

Riding lots of 'dead pieces' at short odds is what struck me.

Probably a short term thing, just something to keep an eye on .

Redbullsnation
06-06-2016, 01:49 AM
What's wrong with him? Clearly he and his horses are allergic to winning :D

burnsy
06-06-2016, 07:41 AM
According to Equibase Castellano is doing OK.
As of this morning the top jockeys at Belmont are,

Jose Ortiz, 203 mounts 25%

J. Velazquez, 98 mounts 19%

J. Rosario, 108 mounts 19%

J. Castellano, 103 mounts 17%

Irad Ortiz, 147 mounts 16%

A horses chance of winning does not improved when there is a large sum of money bet on it.

Every thing people are saying is some what true. He just got back. Jockeys sometimes have periods where they have short horses that can't get up and everyone should look at what Money posted. Jose is on a tear right now, he is white hot and the hot hand can stay hot because he gets the mounts for sticking around all winter. Who wants to bet me if Javier is healthy, he's not in the top 3 at Toga? I'm saying he will be 1rst, 2nd or 3rd. If healthy, I'm leaning towards first or second to boot.

EMD4ME
06-06-2016, 08:36 AM
One of the most over rated pin heads of this generation. If sabermetrics were in horse racing , he'd be near the bottom in maximum efficiency of horse talent. With the talent he rides , he should be batting 30%.

burnsy
06-06-2016, 08:47 AM
One of the most over rated pin heads of this generation. If sabermetrics were in horse racing , he'd be near the bottom in maximum efficiency of horse talent. With the talent he rides , he should be batting 30%.


I respectfully disagree, he's one of the best grass riders around. He was near the top before he got these mounts he gets. He wins every place he rides, for years now. I can't fault that. Are their younger guys coming up? Yes, but that's life in sports.

NTamm1215
06-06-2016, 09:15 AM
I think you're not being totally accurate. First off he literally just started riding back in New York full time. He rode the winter in Florida, most of April at Keeneland and two of the first three weekends in May at Pimlico and Churchill. Basically prior to that he hasn't ridden full time in New York since the fall. And your comparing that to two guys who have ridden in NY all winter and spring winning about half the races carded sometimes more. The Ortiz brothers have better business in New York as they should.

Another factor is two year old racing just started and we all know who rides first call for Pletcher.

When you consider Corneilo and Prado got muscled out of New York and Lezcano can't buy a decent mount there's guys who are struggling but it ain't Javier.

Btw... In Saturday's 3rd he won with a horse who was 1 for 18 with ten plus tries at NX1 with a perfect ride to beat Irad and Chad Brown. He's still got it.

Johnny Velazquez rides 2YOs first call for Pletcher.

Prado's been gone for over a year and was ineffective since before Irad Ortiz could buy a beer. Cornelio is washed up.

The 1-18 horse you referenced was also 7/5 and dropping out of a string of stakes races. Hardly a great riding performance.

burnsy
06-06-2016, 09:42 AM
Johnny Velazquez rides 2YOs first call for Pletcher.

Prado's been gone for over a year and was ineffective since before Irad Ortiz could buy a beer. Cornelio is washed up.

The 1-18 horse you referenced was also 7/5 and dropping out of a string of stakes races. Hardly a great riding performance.


This is what happens on the internet. Guys win a meet or hundreds and thousands of races but they have one bad ride and its the end of the world. Its the big reason I never bash the jockeys. The other reason is only certain few people have the balls to do what they do. Anyone can sit in a suit or on the internet and bang these guys, but, they would never dare try it and see how tough and dangerous it really is. I don't care how long one rides, how good or bad their record is, how much experience or athleticism they have.........there will be whiffs....there will be mistakes...there will be bad decisions...it just moves and changes too much for there not to be. The thing is most times these guys know what happened, that they messed up, they know a different route or tact could of worked better....but its there, and in a flash, its gone. Not an easy way to earn a living, certainly harder than sitting in front of a camera, speaking into a mike or typing on a computer or paper.

I recently started a thread about a young jock that's having a year for himself. He winning and making a name for himself. He had a bad ride at the end of the weekend and the word is he sucks. People could not wait to bash him. I got news for people, there ain't one jock that has not screwed up a trip. That goes from the guy that's in the Hall of Fame to the one that wins 3 races a meet. I could start a thread about any jock riding and within days there would be a negative to point out. This is true with any sport that runs almost daily. Its so f@ckin easy, why don't people point out the guys that never missed one trip? I'll be waiting forever and a day to read that thread. Why? Because it just is not REALITY, that's why.

EMD4ME
06-06-2016, 10:43 AM
I'll name one. In terms of mental preparation: Ramon . He never got caught with his brain in a fog. Javier has not one but countless consistent occasions where his error was mental.

EMD4ME
06-06-2016, 10:45 AM
Johnny Velazquez rides 2YOs first call for Pletcher.

Prado's been gone for over a year and was ineffective since before Irad Ortiz could buy a beer. Cornelio is washed up.

The 1-18 horse you referenced was also 7/5 and dropping out of a string of stakes races. Hardly a great riding performance.

Plus Javier was handed that race on a silver platter. 11 F race and there were 3 lead changes (with 4 horses spent hard) in the first 1/2 mile of that race.

SG4
06-06-2016, 12:02 PM
I'll name one. In terms of mental preparation: Ramon . He never got caught with his brain in a fog. Javier has not one but countless consistent occasions where his error was mental.

For me Ramon was the best & am very sorry to see him gone. However, during the Gulfstream Park meet this year I felt like Javier's riding was as close to this level as I'd seen since Dominguez retired. He just seemed to be in the right spot all the time & you could tell his preparation was outclassing every other jock in the colony. I haven't quite felt this way during the Keeneland or Belmont meets, but still think he's the go-to man on the east coast for now.

Arapola
06-06-2016, 02:28 PM
Javier Castellano rides for top connections and gets bet accordingly.
The expectations for his mounts are high and when they don't win he takes some of the blame.
I see him consistently put his horses in position to win, especially on the lawn.
He makes all the difference in some of these events when trainers switch the mount to him. YMMV, after all it's Horse Racing!

NTamm1215
06-06-2016, 03:21 PM
[/B]

This is what happens on the internet. Guys win a meet or hundreds and thousands of races but they have one bad ride and its the end of the world. Its the big reason I never bash the jockeys. The other reason is only certain few people have the balls to do what they do. Anyone can sit in a suit or on the internet and bang these guys, but, they would never dare try it and see how tough and dangerous it really is. I don't care how long one rides, how good or bad their record is, how much experience or athleticism they have.........there will be whiffs....there will be mistakes...there will be bad decisions...it just moves and changes too much for there not to be. The thing is most times these guys know what happened, that they messed up, they know a different route or tact could of worked better....but its there, and in a flash, its gone. Not an easy way to earn a living, certainly harder than sitting in front of a camera, speaking into a mike or typing on a computer or paper.

I recently started a thread about a young jock that's having a year for himself. He winning and making a name for himself. He had a bad ride at the end of the weekend and the word is he sucks. People could not wait to bash him. I got news for people, there ain't one jock that has not screwed up a trip. That goes from the guy that's in the Hall of Fame to the one that wins 3 races a meet. I could start a thread about any jock riding and within days there would be a negative to point out. This is true with any sport that runs almost daily. Its so f@ckin easy, why don't people point out the guys that never missed one trip? I'll be waiting forever and a day to read that thread. Why? Because it just is not REALITY, that's why.

You used a lot of words to say nothing here.

porchy44
06-06-2016, 03:45 PM
I was thinking the same thing.

Riding lots of 'dead pieces' at short odds is what struck me.

Probably a short term thing, just something to keep an eye on .

It just seems like he was and is constantly getting beat on a chalk by a longer odds Ortiz (particularly Jose) horse. This is coming from me who used to think as a jockey he "could do no wrong". I guess I will have to re-evaluate that.

porchy44
06-06-2016, 04:17 PM
A horses chance of winning does not improved when there is a large sum of money bet on it.

I am not sure what you meant by this. It is a racing mathematical certainty in a large sample of races, shorter priced horses will win more than longer priced horses. So yes, large sums of money bet on horses does improve their chances of winning because the money bet on horses is more informed. Not from the "people who are bad at math" whom play slots all the time. :D

SuperPickle
06-06-2016, 09:37 PM
Johnny Velazquez rides 2YOs first call for Pletcher.

Prado's been gone for over a year and was ineffective since before Irad Ortiz could buy a beer. Cornelio is washed up.

The 1-18 horse you referenced was also 7/5 and dropping out of a string of stakes races. Hardly a great riding performance.

And he gave that 7/5 shot a literal perfect ride beating Irad on a 9/5. In the turf race after that he out rode Saez on a Chad Brown horse. He was 8/5 and Saez 5/2. The horses are essentially the same price when you factor in the Javier price discount. He schooled both of them with comparable horses.

With the exception of maybe Ryan Moore he's the best turf rider on planet earth.

And in terms of Pletcher he and Johnny split first call. He's ridden about 300 horses in 2015-16 for Pletcher. Johnny has ridden over 400. However the difference is he he honors first calls for Chad Brown. Johnny has no such conflict. If Javier rode all the horses Pletcher wanted him too he'd have more of the business than Johnny.

I'll sum it up this way. If anyone doubts he's the best jockey on earth some how he rides first call for the top two trainers in American racing Pletcher and Brown. It would be like Ryan Moore riding for Coolmore and Godolphin.

EMD4ME
06-06-2016, 10:22 PM
And he gave that 7/5 shot a literal perfect ride beating Irad on a 9/5. In the turf race after that he out rode Saez on a Chad Brown horse. He was 8/5 and Saez 5/2. The horses are essentially the same price when you factor in the Javier price discount. He schooled both of them with comparable horses.

With the exception of maybe Ryan Moore he's the best turf rider on planet earth.

And in terms of Pletcher he and Johnny split first call. He's ridden about 300 horses in 2015-16 for Pletcher. Johnny has ridden over 400. However the difference is he he honors first calls for Chad Brown. Johnny has no such conflict. If Javier rode all the horses Pletcher wanted him too he'd have more of the business than Johnny.

I'll sum it up this way. If anyone doubts he's the best jockey on earth some how he rides first call for the top two trainers in American racing Pletcher and Brown. It would be like Ryan Moore riding for Coolmore and Godolphin.

Not sure what you're talking about. Castellano had 1 winner that day, the G3 dropping, perfect trip with awesome flow, ML chalk sucker upper that we're discussing.

Did you mean a different day?

SuperPickle
06-06-2016, 11:02 PM
Not sure what you're talking about. Castellano had 1 winner that day, the G3 dropping, perfect trip with awesome flow, ML chalk sucker upper that we're discussing.

Did you mean a different day?

No I thought he road the horse Irad rode in the feature.

Chalk or not he gave the horse a perfect ride.

KidCruz
06-07-2016, 03:27 AM
And he gave that 7/5 shot a literal perfect ride beating Irad on a 9/5. In the turf race after that he out rode Saez on a Chad Brown horse. He was 8/5 and Saez 5/2. The horses are essentially the same price when you factor in the Javier price discount. He schooled both of them with comparable horses.

With the exception of maybe Ryan Moore he's the best turf rider on planet earth.

And in terms of Pletcher he and Johnny split first call. He's ridden about 300 horses in 2015-16 for Pletcher. Johnny has ridden over 400. However the difference is he he honors first calls for Chad Brown. Johnny has no such conflict. If Javier rode all the horses Pletcher wanted him too he'd have more of the business than Johnny.

I'll sum it up this way. If anyone doubts he's the best jockey on earth some how he rides first call for the top two trainers in American racing Pletcher and Brown. It would be like Ryan Moore riding for Coolmore and Godolphin.

Javier will occasionally honor a first call to Brown over Pletcher (Converge being a recent one that comes to mind) but, with no way to check, I would say 80%+ of the time he is riding for Pletcher if there is a conflict between the two.

burnsy
07-31-2016, 09:59 AM
You used a lot of words to say nothing here.


Yeah, Javier sucks. I said a lot of words to say nothing. How many races did he win this week? :lol: