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View Full Version : Can you explain to a non-thoroughbred player?


caper
06-01-2016, 08:32 PM
Just looking at race 1 at Gulfstream tomorrow. The ML 2nd favorite is the 1. I'm going to assume the bettors will also like her too. My question is why? Her one win at the distance was in .58.23. She has one win in 8 starts. The filly right below her has raced only twice and bother her times are faster then seemingly any race the 1 has shown. A fifth where her time looks to have been around.57 (5f) and a win in .55.43 (5f), the 2 is 7/2 ML.; The 3 shows a win faster then the 1 (.57.25) and a 3rd her last start around (56). The 3 is 10-1. The 4 is the ML favorite and again I do not get it. 1 start this year and finished well back over 6f and her other races don't seem that impressive either.

Anyway. I'm sure the ML handicapper knows a hell of a lot more then I do. But I'm just wondering what I may be missing. Thanks.

ultracapper
06-02-2016, 03:41 PM
The hard truth of class influencing the odds. Times aren't going to make any sense to you until you get the grasp of class's influence on handicapping. the next thing will be grasping the fact that race tracks change day to day. A horse may run :56 one race, and 2 weeks later run a far superior race in :57.

Your post is hardly even scratching the surface in relation to what you're trying to understand. Welcome to the world of hardcore handicapping. You've come to the right place.

Big Peps
06-02-2016, 04:45 PM
4/2/6. Looks like 2 took a bunch of money because of the jock I would imagine without looking at much

acorn54
06-02-2016, 05:32 PM
Just looking at race 1 at Gulfstream tomorrow. The ML 2nd favorite is the 1. I'm going to assume the bettors will also like her too. My question is why? Her one win at the distance was in .58.23. She has one win in 8 starts. The filly right below her has raced only twice and bother her times are faster then seemingly any race the 1 has shown. A fifth where her time looks to have been around.57 (5f) and a win in .55.43 (5f), the 2 is 7/2 ML.; The 3 shows a win faster then the 1 (.57.25) and a 3rd her last start around (56). The 3 is 10-1. The 4 is the ML favorite and again I do not get it. 1 start this year and finished well back over 6f and her other races don't seem that impressive either.

Anyway. I'm sure the ML handicapper knows a hell of a lot more then I do. But I'm just wondering what I may be missing. Thanks.

the old timers had a very good grasp at explaining class, people such as ray taulbot. nowadays it seems to have been lost to the advent of evaluation of horses with numbers/computers. you really can't quantify class in a horse, it is a aura that they possess that the other horses sense, sort of like people recognizing amongst themselves which men and woman are the alpha personalities.

pondman
06-02-2016, 06:28 PM
4/2/6. Looks like 2 took a bunch of money because of the jock I would imagine without looking at much

I'm surprised you haven't been excommunicating from the site for even suggesting there is more to this game than a speed rating.

PaceAdvantage
06-03-2016, 10:07 AM
I'm surprised you haven't been excommunicating from the site for even suggesting there is more to this game than a speed rating.I'm surprised you would post something so ignorant.

Nobody has EVER been excommunicated for such a thing, so why would I start now? Why break my 17+ year record of openness and inclusion to all ideas related to this game?

The only reason people get kicked from this site is for a personality that they can't control and which leads them to continually break the very few rules this place has.

But thanks for once again taking an unwarranted shot against this site (me).

cj
06-03-2016, 10:29 AM
I'm surprised you haven't been excommunicating from the site for even suggesting there is more to this game than a speed rating.

Well, the horse with MUCH the best speed figure on turf in its last race won easily at nice odds, so there is that! ROFL!