HONG KONG/ShaTin Sun 5/29 Live

[Nitro]

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with BIG fields in ALL of the 10 Turf races

Post Time Race #1 – 12:45 AM SUN EST

TVG seems to be back in the game and offering live video.

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

GL if you’re playing & feel free to join in !
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1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher).

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher).

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.


3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.
.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for May 29th at Sha Tin.
Weather report: degrees 86 wind: SSW 10 mph 60% AM Thunderstorms.
Post time: 12.45am ET 9.45am PT Rail: Course ‘A + 3’, track listed:
Feature: Race 8 HK GIII ‘The Lion Rock Trophy’

Links to past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20160529_starter_all.pdf

http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html?b_cid=EWRSSPE_speedmap_Clickformguide


Vulnerable favourites:

Race 2 :1: Good Method (4-1) Class 5 runner is still winless after 18 tries, has speed figures that are higher than the rest, but now is carrying 133 and should be chasing the bug girl who’s getting a 22 lb. advantage.

Horses coming out of key races (multiple winners that have come back out of those races and won at or higher class than today's class).

Race 1 :6: Winning Vibe (5-2) Race 567 finished second while the winner, 6th and 11th place runners have come back and won their next races.

Race 2 :2: Ace King (16-1) Race 567 ran 5th while running in the same race with Winning Vibe in the 1st.

Race 3 :3: Dancing Flames (4-1) Another runner from Race 567, he finished 4th in that race.


There is a possibility of rain, so if the track is downgraded to yielding or soft, these horses should be upgraded having proven to run well on the off going:

Race 3 :8: Art of Success (5-1)
Race 7 :13: Gallant Rock (7-1)
Race 8 :3: Gun Pit (27-1) and :6: Secret Weapon (7-1)
Race 9 :14: Energetic Class (14-1)
Race 10 :11: Hammer King (19-1)


Horses off my watch list:

Race 1 :4: Funny Buddies (10-1) Race 418 Taken back, travelled 7Ls behind the leader on the fence, despite hampered by the slow pace, ran on gradually. (Lame left front next day, passed vet inspection April 29th)

Race 4 :5: House of Fun (10-1) Race 633 Slow start, soon bustled forward to park midfield 1 off at 800m, niggled 450m & driven into stretch, boxed on evenly.

Race 5 :11: Wild Boy (16-1) Race 637 In the Straight was not able to obtain clear running at any stage and consequently was not able to be properly tested.

Race 6 :1: Beauty Kingdom (3-1) Race 618 on jumping lost ground when crowded for room. For some distance after the 1000M was awkwardly placed close to heels. After the 700M improved into tight running. Then for some distance approaching the 600M raced very tight and bumped with a runner on a number of occasions. Near the 550M was then awkwardly placed close to heels. The previous race-Race 582 Began awkwardly and slowest away, settled down 5Ls back towards the rear, closed off well final 300M making late impression.

Race 10 :8: Racing Supernova (5-2) Race 643 Travelled on the outer rail, 1-1/4L behind the leader, couldn't find racing room at 300M and 200M on the inside, closed off strongly inside the final 100M after being directed back out. The previous race- Race 384 Began awkwardly, settled down towards the rear along stands' rail, cruised into contention from 350M, held up near 250M but quickened smartly once in the clear, drew away at the line winning debut impressively.

Race 10 :13: Mr Bogart (13-1) Race 642 Making the turn approaching the 900M got its head on the side, shifted out and brushed a runner. Near the 850M was ridden along when reluctant to maintain its position inside that runner. Near the 650M became badly unbalanced when again racing tight inside that runner. In the early part of the Straight had some difficulty obtaining clear running.


Longshots:

Race 6 :4: Winner St Paul’s (12-1)
Race 7 :5: Mr Right (27-1)
Race 10 :4: Friends Of Ka Ying (13-1)

Good Luck everybody.

[kevb]

Race 1:

6-1 on :5: , Joe Moreira? Tempting, but too good to be true?

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 Class 4 1200 Metres

:6: Winning Vibe (5-2) Is coming out of a race that has already created three winners, the winner being one of them. Should sit right off the pace, behind with the 1 and 14 going at it on the front end.
Second choices
:4: Funny Buddies (10-1) Encountered trouble early in his race then was blocked entering the stretch, came back lame but has since passed the vet inspection in April.
:8: Wisky (8-1) Was blocked while running off the pace on a track that favoured early speed all night. Draws the 14 hole in the short run to the turn.
:5: Smiling Glory (9-1) Was a slow starter, then raced very rank and blocked in the stretch and was not asked to run late in the race, was on my watch list in his 2 previous races, only draw back is he shows no early speed and draws the 12 hole.

Doubles: :6: with :10: :1: :2: :6: :5:
Doubles: :4: :8: :5: with :10: :1:

[Nitro]

Good morning Woody! Thanks for your input!
It looks like there's some wide open races on this card.

Hopefully we won’t have any site interruptions this morning!

Good luck tonight!

[Nitro]

R#1 – 6-14 W/ 5-10-3-1

[kevb]

Race 1:

WP :5:
Q :5: :6: / :1: :2: :3: :4: :5: :6:

[Nitro]

Good morning Kev!

Good luck!

[kevb]

:1: goes brown in the betting.

:14: acted up in paddock

[kevb]

Hi Nitro. Let's cash a lot of tickets today.

First race -- ouch.

[Nitro]

R#1 – 6-14 W/ 5-10-3-1
Results

R# 1 = 2-10-5-14 - Nothing in that one - No clues on that LS Winner

[woodbinepmi]

That wasn't good, got a big number on the :2: in his last race on the dirt because of all the ground he lost on the turns, just didn't trust it. Paying for it now.

[kevb]

Race 2:

:10: projects as leader with :2: . Gets Blinkers off and K Chiong on.

Easy WP :10: for me.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 2 Class 5 1600 Metres

:10: Joy Together (6-1) Gets a good draw and draws a field with very little speed and the 7lb. weight allowance should help.
:1: Good Method (4-1) Favourite is winless after 18 tries, will have to run down the bug girl in the stretch.
:2: Ace King (16-1) Comes out of the key race 567.
:6: Blazing Pass (6-1) Usually comes running late but the lack of pace should hurt his chances.

Doubles: :10: :1: with :3: :1: :2:

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 1-6 W/ 10-5-2-7

[kevb]

Wow $$$ on :14:

Jenny liked in paddock

[woodbinepmi]

That's 2 races in a row that the race looked odd, front runners are just stopping when they reach the stretch. Maybe the head wind on the backside is really affecting them a lot.

Good one Nitro.

[kevb]

Good call nitro.

[kevb]

I think the headwind is a factor. Looking closely at closers now.

[kevb]

Closers except for the 1000m races like R3 and R7.

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 1-6 W/ 10-5-2-7
Results

R# 2 = 6-7-11-1 - WIN – QUIN :ThmbUp:
(Placer went from 16/1 to 7.5/1)

$2.00 WIN – 6 - $17.50
$2.00 QUINELLA – 6-7 - $96.40

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 Class 4 1000 Metres

One thing I have never understood about these 1000 metre races at Hong Kong. Why they don't run in 2 groups like they do in Britain, the outside draws run as one and the inside run as another. Here the outside draws run down to the inside rail and have to use too much energy crossing over.

Have no clue on this race. Catching up on what's going on in Australia on the AFL games. Carlton trying to hang on against Geelong, didn't see that one coming.

[Nitro]

Why is it that I’m dialed in to HK Web sites half way around the world with no issues. Yet here there's always a glitch :bang:

No clear cut choices here – Full Quinella
R# 3 - 1-2 W/ 9-3-7-8

[kevb]

Race 4:

WP :4: at a price.

[woodbinepmi]

Why is it that I’m dialed in to HK Web sites half way around the world with no issues.

No clear cut choices here – Full Quinella
R# 3 - 1-2 W/ 9-3-7-8
our weekly shut down

[woodbinepmi]

Will play :3: Dancing Flames the next time he runs, sat in the gate costing at least 4 lengths at the start. Have noticed a bunch of horses breaking slowly that are loaded with the hoods and are taken off in the gate.

[Unicorn]

I finally upgraded to TVG. Will have to start following this now. Looks like a good time.

[woodbinepmi]

I finally upgraded to TVG. Will have to start following this now. Looks like a good time.
Welcome to the party

[Unicorn]

Going to play the :1: race 4. My favorite The Big Lebowski.

[Nitro]

our weekly shut down
I mean if it is maintenance, then why is it so hard to figure out that there’s not much going on Mon or Tues evenings? :bang:
Why always Sat & Sun morning problems? :confused:

[Unicorn]

Holy crap you guys were not kidding about the pools. Look at all that $. :eek:

[Unicorn]

I mean if it is maintenance, then why is it so hard to figure out that there’s not much going on Mon or Tues evenings? :bang:
Why always Sat & Sun morning problems? :confused:

Doesn't make any sense to me. You figure the weekend would be the busiest.

[woodbinepmi]

I have no idea, you would think they would do it then, but it seems like it happens at the same time to us each week.

Another good one for you, glad somebody is making some money.

[kevb]

Race 4:

i've pegged the best closers as :2: :7: :12:

[Unicorn]

Is that a worldwide tote system?

[Nitro]

No clear cut choices here – Full Quinella
R# 3 - 1-2 W/ 9-3-7-8
Results

R# 3 = 2-7-4-11 - WIN – QUIN :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 2 - $12.00
$2.00 QUINELLA – 2-7 - $64.30

[Unicorn]

Is that a worldwide tote system?

Jesus a half a mil on the favorite.

[Nitro]

Is that a worldwide tote system?
Hey Unicorn! Welcome aboard!

Aren’t the betting pools amazing! That’s the only way I make my picks. I just follow the money. Fortunately my tote analysis can sort it all out.

[Unicorn]

I guess this is where the action is at. I'm hooked already.

[Unicorn]

I know this first pick is going to be a loser for me, but I like the name.

[woodbinepmi]

We will have a break after this race for the Japanese Derby here are the pp's for that race:

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/OSE20160529_starter_s1_r1.pdf

[Unicorn]

Hey Unicorn! Welcome aboard!

Aren’t the betting pools amazing! That’s the only way I make my picks. I just follow the money. Fortunately my tote analysis can sort it all out.

Thanks Nitro... What days does this track run?

[Unicorn]

I notice the way you handicap Nitro that you are always hitting bets. You are one of the better handicappers on here.

[kevb]

Race 4:

I don't like the price, but I can't see the 2 losing.

W :2:
Q :2: / :4: :6: :7: :12:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 Class 4 1400 Metres

With they way the track is running so far, :2: Home Run looks tough, was helped with the pace in his last but gets a nice draw.
:5: House of Fun (10-1) was bet in his debut and had Moreira for that mount, ran real green with a little trouble. :7: Namjong Invincible (16-1) was very wide in his last and made my watch list 2 back had lots of trouble while getting beat on a yielding track by a favourite who had a perfect trip.

:2: over :5: :7: with :11: :1: :4: :13:

[kevb]

Thanks for the Japan pps. How do people bet with pps like this? Really no useful information at all.

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 2-6 W/ 13-4-5-10

#12 getting some late action

[kevb]

Wow. I sweated that win bet on the even money fave. What a ride by Moreiera.

[Nitro]

I notice the way you handicap Nitro that you are always hitting bets. You are one of the better handicappers on here.
Thanks for the compliment, but maybe it's because I don't handicap.
I believe I'm an Outsider playing an Insider's game. That's why I only follow the money.

[Unicorn]

Japan Race 10 # :15: Immortal wps.

[kevb]

Race 6

Best closers :7: :9: :10:

[Nitro]

Japan
R# 10 - 8-1 W/ 12-3-5-14

[woodbinepmi]

Race 5 Class 3 1200 Metres

:11: Wild Boy (16-1) Made my watch list off his last effort, close to the front while having no room to run, was wrapped up on and not asked the last 150 metres. Love the price, hate the draw.
:1: class of the field and gets the weight off, was all out to beat the favourite in his last unfortunately draws the 14 barrier in the short run.
:10: Total throw out with his start and running against the bias and blocked in the race before that.

:11: with :1: :10: over :2: :3: :9: :12:

[woodbinepmi]

WE HAVE OUR 1ST DQ OF THE YEAR! :7: got put up over the :4: in the last, really helped me.

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 2-6 W/ 13-4-5-10

#12 getting some late action
Results

R# 4 = 2-7-4-5 - WIN only – the Placer was DQ’d & placed 3rd

$2.00 WIN – 2 - $4.20

[Nitro]

R# 5 - 10-13 W/ 1-12-7-3

[Tee]

:9: Hard Ball Get & :13: Carefree Let Go with :1: :7: :10: :12: :14:

[Nitro]

Japan
R# 10 - 8-1 W/ 12-3-5-14

Results –

R# 10 = 3-8-1-5-12 - EX – TRI & SUPER BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 EXACTA – 3-8 - $33.70
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 3-8-1 – $100.60
$2.00 SUPER – 3-8-1-5 – $868.70

[woodbinepmi]

If the track continues to play the way it has, will play the :1: Mamsteen from the last in his next race, hopefully in Class 3 with a better draw. With the effort he put in today he will probably rate up to Class 2 and then get the weight off and 7 more if the bug girl takes the mount.

[Nitro]

R# 5 - 10-13 W/ 1-12-7-3
Results

R# 5 = 10-1-13-6 - WIN – QUIN – TRI

$2.00 WIN – 10 - $6.50
$2.00 QUINELLA – 1-10 - $21.90
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 10-1-13 – $91.60

[woodbinepmi]

Race 6 Class 4 1400 Metres

:1: Beauty Kingdom (2-1) Has had 2 straight races that have been put on my watch list with trouble at the start at both times. Like the draw and the weight off with Chiong up. Ran against the bias last time now gets it in his favour. Would like to see more pace.
Got a nice number on :4: Winner St Paul's(16-1) last effort after being outrun by the eventual winner on May the 7th. :3: Should be the speed in here.

:1: with :4: :3: over :7: :5:
Doubles :1: with :5: :1: :7: :12: :13:
Doubles :4: with :5: :1: :7:

[Tee]

:4: :5: :6: :7: :11: with :1: :2:

[Nitro]

R# 6 - 2-1 W/ 7-11-4-9

[kevb]

Race 6:

In a projected slow pace race, I am looking for a horse that can lay close, but not lead to the lead with cover, and finish.

:1: :2: :5: :6: No value.

I'll take a flyer:

WP :5: :8:


Way back, the :8: had a race that could hit the board.

[Nitro]

R# 6 - 2-1 W/ 7-11-4-9
Results

R# 6 = 7-1-12-14 - QUIN

$2.00 QUINELLA – 1-7 - $19.40

[woodbinepmi]

Race 7 Class 3 1000 Metres

Going to try and beat the favoutite in here, Dutching 3 horses in here :1: Dragon General (8-1), :5: Mr Right (50-1) and the :9: Both Lucky (10-1)

:5: with :1: :9: :7: :13: in the Q's

[kevb]

Race 7:

Best early speed:

:1: :7: :8: :12: :13:

I'll put my money on KK

WP :13:

Q :7: :13: / :1: :7: :8: :12: :13:

[Nitro]

R# 7 - 7-1 W/ 12-9-13-6

[Tee]

:16: & :13: with :6: :5: :3: :9:

[Nitro]

Nice call there Kev! Good value too!

Results

R# 7 = 13-8-7-1 - Nothing in that one - Some late action on the Placer

[kevb]

Thanks. Feels good when they run to expectations doesn't it?

Race 8:

:3: Gun Pit at 80-1! Is that worth a bet for anyone besides me?

[kevb]

Race 8:

Q :2: :3: :10: / :1: :2: :3: :10: :11:

Q :2: :3: :10: / :1: :2: :3: :4: :5: :10: :11:
WP :3:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 8 HK GIII 1600 Metres

Got a big number on :2: Beauty Only (5-1) in his last due to the wide trip, just to betting to win here.

[Nitro]

R# 8 - 10-2 W/ 6-11-1-4

[Nitro]

R# 8 - 10-2 W/ 6-11-1-4
Results

R# 8 = 10-2-6-1 - WIN – QUIN – TRI COLD

$2.00 WIN – 10 - $4.50
$2.00 QUINELLA – 2-10 - $14.80
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 10-2-6 – $88.20
($2.00 QUARTET - 10-2-6-1 - $548.00)

[kevb]

Race 9:

:2: Moreira is of course the on to beat. Gets first time blink. Maybe finds the front and gets beaten down by the headwind?

:1: :6: :13: are maybe the best closers.

:6: really woke up,last time and won in fast time.
:13: has had trouble in 2 of his 3 races.

Q :1: :2: :6: :13: / :1: :2: :6: :7: :12: :13: and hope Joe somehow is kept out of the top two.

[kevb]

Good hit Nitro.
:ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

R# 9 - 2-5 W/ 12-1-13-14

[kevb]

Race 9:

WP :6: :13:

The odds are too juicy for me. Both good closers too.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 9 Class 3 1600 Metres

Looked and looked and couldn't come up with anything to play, passed.

[Nitro]

R# 9 - 2-5 W/ 12-1-13-14
Results

R# 8 = 1-14-12-2 - DEEP QUIN ALL –
Top 2 got clobbered late 15/1 to 6.5 & 31/1 to 11/1

$2.00 QUINELLA – 1-14 - $55.60

[woodbinepmi]

Race 10 Class 2 1200 Metres

Taking the chalk in the last, ALL kids of trouble in his last and still only beaten by a head. In with a tough crowd though.
:8: Racing Supernova (2-1) over :12: Trouble early then blocked in the stretch and beaten by a winner who got a better trip after chasing a quitter.

:8: over :12: over :3: :4: :1: :5: :2:

[kevb]

Race 9:

:1: :3: :8: :12: :13: are all under consideration.

WP :3: for me.

Good night. Go well.

[Nitro]

R#10 – 3-1 W/ 5-8-12-4

[Nitro]

R#10 – 3-1 W/ 5-8-12-4
Results

R# 10 = 13-8-2-5 - Nothing in that one -
Big late action on the Winner - 24/1 to 8.6/1

Another decent day at HK.

Have a good one!