Nyquist Belmont unlikely

[drib]

Today brings news of a "slight fever" from the Nyquist camp. I doubt that this is the whole story. It is worth remembering the difficult time NYRA gave trainer Doug O'Neil before I'll Have Another's ill-fated run at the Triple Crown. Check this story http://www.foxsports.com/horse-racing/story/belmont-stakes-ill-have-another-questions-surrounded-trainer-owner-even-before-scratch-060812

My favorite part is that NYRA even gave O'Neil crap about cooking oats. Back then the trainer needed Belmont to complete the Triple Crown, but, now, with the Preakness defeat, the shoe is on the other foot. My suspicion is that Mr. O'Neil would love a little payback; Nyquist's non-appearance in the Belmont would cost NYRA big $.
Despite the NYRA shills, when one analyzes the situation, why should Nyquist attempt the crueling third leg of the Triple Crown? The smart move is a brief summer rest and return to favorable. friendly West Coast. This is the sensible path towards the Breeder's Cup on home grounds.....plus the chance to stick it to NYRA might be irresistible.

[PaceAdvantage]

You're defending a trainer whose pejorative nickname is "Drug" O'Neil?

Thanks for the laugh...

[drib]

I am certainly no defender of O'Neil; just accurately reporting past events, and, knowing human nature, speculating on current events.

[the little guy]

You're defending a trainer whose pejorative nickname is "Drug" O'Neil?

Thanks for the laugh...

I was hoping you could define "crueling" for me.

[Grits]

I was hoping you could define "crueling" for me.

:lol: I was thinking the same. I don't care if Nyquist doesn't come to NY. Couldn't care less. He ran in the Derby. He won. He ran in the Preakness. He lost.

Next...

[PaceAdvantage]

I am certainly no defender of O'Neil; just accurately reporting past events, and, knowing human nature, speculating on current events.O'Neil should be thankful he's still allowed to participate in the game.

He was suspended in NY in 2014 for 45 days because of a banned substance. That's not all that ancient of a history. Prior to that he had 18 DRUG VIOLATIONS...yes EIGHTEEN...with nine of them since January 2009. That averages out to over one PER YEAR. This is in ADDITION to his carbon dioxide (ie. milkshaking) controversy and suspension by Del Mar.

http://www.drf.com/news/oneill-suspended-new-york-gaming-commission

But yeah, go ahead and pontificate how O'Neil deserves some revenge against NYRA... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Saratoga_Mike]

After winning the Derby and a third-place finish in the Preakness, watch O'Neil stick it to NYRA. He's planned for this moment all year long, no doubt. :rolleyes:

[Redboard]

A few years back, most were skipping the Belmont. it was so bad that one year a prominent trainer called it a "test of leftovers." But it seems that now most want to enter it now because they believe it's a feather in the breeding-shed cap (i.e.,to have a sire who got the distance).

[dilanesp]

O'Neil should be thankful he's still allowed to participate in the game.

He was suspended in NY in 2014 for 45 days because of a banned substance. That's not all that ancient of a history. Prior to that he had 18 DRUG VIOLATIONS...yes EIGHTEEN...with nine of them since January 2009. That averages out to over one PER YEAR. This is in ADDITION to his carbon dioxide (ie. milkshaking) controversy and suspension by Del Mar.

http://www.drf.com/news/oneill-suspended-new-york-gaming-commission

But yeah, go ahead and pontificate how O'Neil deserves some revenge against NYRA... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Also, though nothing was proven, Lava Man certainly looked like a doped horse. A reformed claimer who became a top stakes horse who could beat anyone in California, but stunk every time he was shipped out and run under different drug testing rules.

That said, the signals I am hearing are that they are hoping the fever is nothing and want to run.

[delayjf]

I'd be inclined to rest him up for the Haskell / Travers later in the year.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I want 3yo. champ honors. I run in the Belmont and try to hold the honor clearly if possible while in form and fit and healthy instead of possibly being neglected in thought a bit by taking a pass, Exaggerator possibly taking 2/3 Triple Crown (without making him work for it in the third) with a strong Derby finish as well, and then absolutely having to cement the status with one of the last major 3yo race and then probably facing the best of the olders.

[Fox]

I was hoping you could define "crueling" for me.

Don't be gruel man.

[Fager Fan]

Today brings news of a "slight fever" from the Nyquist camp. I doubt that this is the whole story. It is worth remembering the difficult time NYRA gave trainer Doug O'Neil before I'll Have Another's ill-fated run at the Triple Crown. Check this story http://www.foxsports.com/horse-racing/story/belmont-stakes-ill-have-another-questions-surrounded-trainer-owner-even-before-scratch-060812

My favorite part is that NYRA even gave O'Neil crap about cooking oats. Back then the trainer needed Belmont to complete the Triple Crown, but, now, with the Preakness defeat, the shoe is on the other foot. My suspicion is that Mr. O'Neil would love a little payback; Nyquist's non-appearance in the Belmont would cost NYRA big $.
Despite the NYRA shills, when one analyzes the situation, why should Nyquist attempt the crueling third leg of the Triple Crown? The smart move is a brief summer rest and return to favorable. friendly West Coast. This is the sensible path towards the Breeder's Cup on home grounds.....plus the chance to stick it to NYRA might be irresistible.

"Payback" isn't withdrawing a horse, having an unprovable supposed "hit" on their ticket sales.

"Payback" isn't sitting out a $1m race (or is it $1.5m?) and having the people you're getting back at give you a check and a trophy.

You're making too much of this. I was surprised that they're even thinking about it yet. That was a tough race on the horse. I'd want to see how he's doing in a week's time before I think about it. But now he's spiked a fever, so it's not looking great as to how he looks in a week's time.

[Fager Fan]

O'Neil should be thankful he's still allowed to participate in the game.

He was suspended in NY in 2014 for 45 days because of a banned substance. That's not all that ancient of a history. Prior to that he had 18 DRUG VIOLATIONS...yes EIGHTEEN...with nine of them since January 2009. That averages out to over one PER YEAR. This is in ADDITION to his carbon dioxide (ie. milkshaking) controversy and suspension by Del Mar.

http://www.drf.com/news/oneill-suspended-new-york-gaming-commission

But yeah, go ahead and pontificate how O'Neil deserves some revenge against NYRA... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Yet I feel like O'Neil is probably squeakier than last year's TC trainer in the clean department. I forgive easier drug positives, particularly for known and testable therapeutic overages, than a bunch of dead horses (who were given an unneeded drug which is known to counteract an illegal and untestable drug).

[dogkatcher]

Why would you run in the Belmont with a horse who is said to be bred not to even go the Derby distance. Had he won the Preakness, maybe a good reason to give it a shot. Other than that, there are plenty of big races down the road.

[horses4courses]

I'm not defending O'Neill's training methods for one second.
However, I find it amazing how easily some people will
rush to condemn him when, had the trainer been from NY,
they would have remained silent on the topic.

[the little guy]

Why would you run in the Belmont with a horse who is said to be bred not to even go the Derby distance. Had he won the Preakness, maybe a good reason to give it a shot. Other than that, there are plenty of big races down the road.

I'm just a little confused....you think "maybe" he should have run in the Belmont if he had won the Preakness?

[Tom]

It's a gruel world, horsey.

[AlBundy33]

I'm just a little confused....you think "maybe" he should have run in the Belmont if he had won the Preakness?

Better you saying that than me. :D

The only time I read that there was even a discussion of a horse skipping the Belmont after winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown (aside from I'll Have Another's career ending injury) was Johnny Longden and Majestic Prince.

[dilanesp]

Better you saying that than me. :D

The only time I read that there was even a discussion of a horse skipping the Belmont after winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown (aside from I'll Have Another's career ending injury) was Johnny Longden and Majestic Prince.

Ever hear of Burgoo King and Bold Venture?

[HalvOnHorseracing]

O'Neil should be thankful he's still allowed to participate in the game.

He was suspended in NY in 2014 for 45 days because of a banned substance. That's not all that ancient of a history. Prior to that he had 18 DRUG VIOLATIONS...yes EIGHTEEN...with nine of them since January 2009. That averages out to over one PER YEAR. This is in ADDITION to his carbon dioxide (ie. milkshaking) controversy and suspension by Del Mar.

http://www.drf.com/news/oneill-suspended-new-york-gaming-commission

But yeah, go ahead and pontificate how O'Neil deserves some revenge against NYRA... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

The NY violation for Oxazepam was June 2, 2013. He hasn't had a violation since June of 2013, just to finish the thought. It is also a common misperception that elevated TCO2 means milkshaking, which for O'Neill and Argenta was simply not the case (as concluded by CHRB). The article I did explains the case (and how TCO2 gets elevated without milkshaking) in detail, if anyone is interested.

Everyone knows that O'Neill and I good friends, but before I got to know him I wrote a more complete version of the Oxazepam case in NY. In retrospect, given the actual concentration of the drug, it was almost certainly an environmental contamination. Regardless, the NYSGC "investigation," like many of these cases, never really got to the bottom of what happened to cause Wind of Bosphorus to test positive. Because it was Belmont week, Wind of Bosphorus had been moved through multiple stalls, and it hardly stretches credibility to assume a recovering human alcoholic took a piss in one of the stalls (peeing in the stalls happens far more often than non-backsiders might realize) and the horse munched on some of the straw. Of course, it doesn't matter. The racing public was happy to believe that O'Neill had to have been guilty in this case because he had a seemingly long rap sheet (which I chronicled in my article about O'Neill). If you've watched any TV police dramas, the guy with the rap sheet is always presumed guilty until they realized they rushed to judgement. Which luckily is never a problem in horseracing. The more complete story on Oxazepam and Wind of Bosphorus is below.

http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=517

I also did an in depth piece on Argenta and the TCO2 violation. Again, unlike the DRF or Paulick articles, it actually contains a full treatment of what led up to the violation and how it was adjudicated. The bottom line - CHRB agreed that O'Neill did not purposely try to elevate the horse's TCO2 level, a fact that was lost in the "there he goes again" mentality that pertains to O'Neill, nor did O'Neill milkshake the horse. However, the level was elevated and O'Neill was always going to have to pay a penalty.

http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=555

Both stories penetrated the layers that weren't reported by other publications and were factual.

O'Neill did have a checkered history, but I believe he knows he has used all the rope he's been given and he's making a concerted effort to be a good actor. Wind of Bosphorus and Argenta were a wake-up call for O'Neill, and he made a lot of changes after those cases. Ultimately, you can choose to believe whatever you want about O'Neill. I talk with him regularly and obviously knowing O'Neill that way gives me a slant. In person he is an incredibly likeable and forthcoming guy, and that is pretty much a universal opinion. I happen to believe him when he says he's turned a corner. Ultimately, whether you want to refer to him as "Drug" O'Neill or Saint Doug is irrelevant. Time will prove him to be one or the other.

This is my story on the three days I spent with Doug shadowing him around Santa Anita. In it I talk about his past transgressions.

http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=1412

[davew]

I was hoping you could define "crueling" for me.

Going somewhere and doing something just for the pain of it.

[clocker7]

I don't know why either of the winning TC colts would run in the Belmont. Without a TC crown on the line, it's less prestigious than the Haskell or the Travers, never mind the 12f business to hassle with.

With the BCC and the $12 million GP race to shoot for, why not rest the better ones who have been on the TC trail and leave the Belmont for the second tier runners who are better bred for it?

[burnsy]

I was hoping you could define "crueling" for me.


I will, showing up at Belmont when there is a Triple Crown attempt, its a very "crueling" day.

Seriously, I'm glad. Its one week after Mt. Jam this year and if the weather is good I'll be there. I can't stand when there's 100,000 people at that place. Just can't do that anymore.........its so very "crueling." It vexes me.

[castaway01]

Everyone knows that O'Neill and I good friends, but before I got to know him I wrote a more complete version of the Oxazepam case in NY. In retrospect, given the actual concentration of the drug, it was almost certainly an environmental contamination. Regardless, the NYSGC "investigation," like many of these cases, never really got to the bottom of what happened to cause Wind of Bosphorus to test positive. Because it was Belmont week, Wind of Bosphorus had been moved through multiple stalls, and it hardly stretches credibility to assume a recovering human alcoholic took a piss in one of the stalls (peeing in the stalls happens far more often than non-backsiders might realize) and the horse munched on some of the straw.

If I used that excuse for a trainer you didn't like, you would laugh in my face.

The fact is that O'Neill had a list of drug positives longer than my arm and no matter how charming he is, he probably should have been banned from the game long ago for the good of the horses. It's great that after getting busted a million times he's now planning to be clean though. :rolleyes:

[castaway01]

Today brings news of a "slight fever" from the Nyquist camp. I doubt that this is the whole story. It is worth remembering the difficult time NYRA gave trainer Doug O'Neil before I'll Have Another's ill-fated run at the Triple Crown. Check this story http://www.foxsports.com/horse-racing/story/belmont-stakes-ill-have-another-questions-surrounded-trainer-owner-even-before-scratch-060812

My favorite part is that NYRA even gave O'Neil crap about cooking oats. Back then the trainer needed Belmont to complete the Triple Crown, but, now, with the Preakness defeat, the shoe is on the other foot. My suspicion is that Mr. O'Neil would love a little payback; Nyquist's non-appearance in the Belmont would cost NYRA big $.
Despite the NYRA shills, when one analyzes the situation, why should Nyquist attempt the crueling third leg of the Triple Crown? The smart move is a brief summer rest and return to favorable. friendly West Coast. This is the sensible path towards the Breeder's Cup on home grounds.....plus the chance to stick it to NYRA might be irresistible.

Yeah, O'Neill's plan to send Nyquist into a duel so he could lose the Preakness and then pull Nyquist from the Belmont with a fake fever to "stick it to NYRA" was certainly a brilliant one. It was crueling, but brilliant in execution. From now on I hope Drug sticks it to Churchill by never running a Derby horse again.

[Saratoga_Mike]

O'Neill did have a checkered history, but I believe he knows he has used all the rope he's been given and he's making a concerted effort to be a good actor. Wind of Bosphorus and Argenta were a wake-up call for O'Neill, and he made a lot of changes after those cases. Ultimately, you can choose to believe whatever you want about O'Neill. I talk with him regularly and obviously knowing O'Neill that way gives me a slant. In person he is an incredibly likeable and forthcoming guy, and that is pretty much a universal opinion. I happen to believe him when he says he's turned a corner. Ultimately, whether you want to refer to him as "Drug" O'Neill or Saint Doug is irrelevant. Time will prove him to be one or the other.

This is my story on the three days I spent with Doug shadowing him around Santa Anita. In it I talk about his past transgressions.

http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=1412

...to quote Ronald Reagan, there you go again.

Stick with defending guys like Ferris Allen - that's a noble cause.

[cj]

O'Neil should be thankful he's still allowed to participate in the game.

He was suspended in NY in 2014 for 45 days because of a banned substance. That's not all that ancient of a history. Prior to that he had 18 DRUG VIOLATIONS...yes EIGHTEEN...with nine of them since January 2009. That averages out to over one PER YEAR. This is in ADDITION to his carbon dioxide (ie. milkshaking) controversy and suspension by Del Mar.

http://www.drf.com/news/oneill-suspended-new-york-gaming-commission

But yeah, go ahead and pontificate how O'Neil deserves some revenge against NYRA... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Not his finest moment here either:

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/searching-for-the-truth-on-doug-o-neill/

[Inner Dirt]

Not his finest moment here either:

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/searching-for-the-truth-on-doug-o-neill/

I don't know how others here feel but the inflated purses compared to claiming prices makes it hard for me to gauge what drops are suspicious and which are not. I see a lot of horses win dropping down a few levels from recently competitive levels, in the old days if a horse was hitting the board on $40k claimers then showed up for $20k a month later he finished off the board 90% of the time. Now those horse win with regularity.

[cj]

I don't know how others here feel but the inflated purses compared to claiming prices makes it hard for me to gauge what drops are suspicious and which are not. I see a lot of horses win dropping down a few levels from recently competitive levels, in the old days if a horse was hitting the board on $40k claimers then showed up for $20k a month later he finished off the board 90% of the time. Now those horse win with regularity.

There are no inflated slots purses at Los Al.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

If I used that excuse for a trainer you didn't like, you would laugh in my face.

The fact is that O'Neill had a list of drug positives longer than my arm and no matter how charming he is, he probably should have been banned from the game long ago for the good of the horses. It's great that after getting busted a million times he's now planning to be clean though. :rolleyes:
Backside people urinate in the stalls all the time, and I'd only laugh at you if your horse tested at a level that indicated an injection as opposed to an environmental contamination, especially if it was for a drug that no veterinarian carries.My point is simple. Crucify the trainer if he actually gives a horse a performance enhancing drug, but do an investigation that proves that is what happened. O'Neill will always be on thin ice and he knows it. He'd be either the stupidest or most arrogant person in the world to try something underhanded.

[tucker6]

Backside people urinate in the stalls all the time, and I'd only laugh at you if your horse tested at a level that indicated an injection as opposed to an environmental contamination, especially if it was for a drug that no veterinarian carries.My point is simple. Crucify the trainer if he actually gives a horse a performance enhancing drug, but do an investigation that proves that is what happened. O'Neill will always be on thin ice and he knows it. He'd be either the stupidest or most arrogant person in the world to try something underhanded.
I don't have a dog in this fight, but we've seen many an arrogant sportsmen try something underhanded with millions of eyes watching them.

Lance Armstrong (taking drugs and then running accusers into the mud)
Alex Rodriguez (drugs right after successfully appealing on drugs)
Tiger Woods (a dozen women)
Luis Suarez (soccer player who bit someone in World Cup in front of everyone)

So it happens, and quite regularly to those who believe arrogantly that they can get away with it. I make no judgement on O'Neill here. Just saying that it happens.

[classhandicapper]

My feeling is that he's not a 12F horse. If I owned him, I'd see what the field looks like. If it looks like he's the only speed I'd probably take a shot at him controlling the pace and stretching out. But if the pace looks more neutral or competitive I don't think there's much downside on a net basis in passing a 12F race with this specific horse. You can start the inevitable freshening now instead of after the Belmont. Then you can look for a prep in July and gear up for the Haskell at the better 9F.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

...to quote Ronald Reagan, there you go again.

Stick with defending guys like Ferris Allen - that's a noble cause.

You don't have to believe O'Neill has learned his lesson. I for one have never made excuses for his past transgressions. He was a bad actor, he knows he was a bad actor, and to use an old phrase - he made his bed and now he has to lie in it. I've said that the Oxazepam violation was most likely an environmental contamination (and equine pharmacologists agree) and the investigation was lacking and the TCO2 investigation, while an effort by CHRB to get O'Neill for milkshaking, was pretty overblown, especially considering CHRB concluded O'Neilll did nothing on purpose to try to raise Argenta's TCO2 level.

For what it is worth, I've never commented on any other respective violation O'Neill has in his past, other than to list them so people can see what they were. When I asked him about the past violations, he admitted he did them, qualifying only that he never gave Wind of Bosphorous Oxazepam and he never milkshaked Argenta.

Some people who receive a wake-up call do change. Had the Oxazepam positive been clearly associated with something O'Neill did to affect the horse's performance, and had the Argenta TCO2 violation been milkshaking, O'Neill would have easily gotten 3-5 years, if not more. He knows that.

I have a distinct advantage here. I talked to a number of people about the Wind of Bosphorus and Argenta violations, including O'Neill and I reported on it. Concluding O'Neill was mostly guilty of violating the absolute insurers rule was not just a result of talking to O'Neill. In those cases the facts back that conclusion.

People learn and people change. Not all people and not all the time. As I said, time will tell for O'Neill.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

My feeling is that he's not a 12F horse. If I owned him, I'd see what the field looks like. If it looks like he's the only speed I'd probably take a shot at him controlling the pace and stretching out. But if the pace looks more neutral or competitive I don't think there's much downside on a net basis in passing a 12F race with this specific horse. You can start the inevitable freshening now instead of after the Belmont. Then you can look for a prep in July and gear up for the Haskell at the better 9F.

I'll let everyone know what he's thinking after I talk with him. And report on the horse.

[classhandicapper]

I'll let everyone know what he's thinking after I talk with him. And report on the horse.

He's out.

Elevated white cell count.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Good news and bad news from the Nyquist camp.

The bad news is that Nyquist spiked a fever the day after the race and is definitely out of the Belmont. The good news is that he otherwise came out of the race well physically.

"His legs are fine," O'Neill said. "We've started him on antibiotics and we'll make an assessment in 10 days to two weeks about getting him back in training."

O'Neill said at this point plans are up in the air about his summer schedule. "The antibiotics take a lot out of the horse, so our first priority is getting him healthy again. Once we feel he's up to it we'll start him jogging and get him back on a training regimen. Right now we don't have a specific plan other than getting him peaked for the Breeder's Cup. Once we have an idea how the horse is progressing we'll look at potential races and make a decision about whether we'll get him ready in California or back east."

I asked O'Neill whose idea it was to run Nyquist hard out of the gate. "The plan was all mine," O'Neill said. "We knew Uncle Lino would go and I told Mario to make sure we won the first turn. We didn't think Awesome Speed would go as fast as he did and we thought we'd be able to get a clear spot where Nyquist could run his race. We weren't worried about Uncle Lino, but Awesome Speed and Collector changed our strategy some. By the time Nyquist was clear on the backstretch he was into the bit. He's such a competitive horse there was no turning back at that point."

I asked if Nyquist was affected by the track. "The track was definitely safe and he wasn't having any trouble grabbing hold. But Pimlico is one of those older dirt tracks that can be heavy and tiring when it gets that wet. Running fast early took a lot out of him, but he still showed his competitiveness in the stretch."

But O'Neill added, "Exaggerator is a very good horse and he ran a great race to win the Preakness. The Desormeaux's did a wonderful job getting him ready for the race and I want to congratulate them on their victory. I look forward to meeting them again down the road.

"Nyquist is the best horse I've ever been around," O'Neill said. "At this point our only focus is on getting him healthy again. Once he's back to normal we'll develop a plan."

I think we're all looking forward to the next chapter for Nyquist.

[cj]

I'll Have Another was better than Nyquist IMO, but horsemen almost always look at the latest as the best.

[ultracapper]

I'll Have Another was better than Nyquist IMO, but horsemen almost always look at the latest as the best.

I agree. I thought his Preakness win was dead game.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not defending O'Neill's training methods for one second.
However, I find it amazing how easily some people will
rush to condemn him when, had the trainer been from NY,
they would have remained silent on the topic.Had the trainer been from NY, there would be plenty of other people condemning him, like they do Pletcher...like they did Dutrow, like they do whomever is the "cheater of the week" from NY...like EMD does to NY jockeys...

There is no lack of bashing of NY horsemen here...that we can agree on.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ultimately, whether you want to refer to him as "Drug" O'Neill or Saint Doug is irrelevant. Time will prove him to be one or the other.

This is my story on the three days I spent with Doug shadowing him around Santa Anita. In it I talk about his past transgressions.

http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=1412For the record, I have never referred to him as "Drug" O'Neil. I was simply reporting a fact.

[the little guy]

I'll Have Another was better than Nyquist IMO, but horsemen almost always look at the latest as the best.

I don't even think it's close. He beat Bodemeister fair and square in the Preakness, and Bodemeister could have been a superstar if he had stayed sound.

It's actually amazing the horses the Zayats have had this decade. Eskendereya, Bodemeister, Paynter, and American Pharoah. American Pharoah was, at best, the second most talented horse among them. Eskendereya's races as a 3YO were scary good.

[classhandicapper]

I asked O'Neill whose idea it was to run Nyquist hard out of the gate. "The plan was all mine," O'Neill said. "We knew Uncle Lino would go and I told Mario to make sure we won the first turn. We didn't think Awesome Speed would go as fast as he did and we thought we'd be able to get a clear spot where Nyquist could run his race. We weren't worried about Uncle Lino, but Awesome Speed and Collector changed our strategy some. By the time Nyquist was clear on the backstretch he was into the bit. He's such a competitive horse there was no turning back at that point."


IMO, it typically makes little sense to challenge other speeds if you have a handy speed horse like Nyquist. Even if you have the best horse, you might get used up enough to get beat while killing off the cheaper speeds (which is what happened).

If you have the best horse, all you have to do is stay close enough to pick up the inferior leader.

If you don't have the best horse, battling the faster/better horse can and often will cost you a placing.

I guess you could argue he was a little uncomfortable between horses very early and decided to go instead of back out, but I don't think he should have been that aggressive to begin with. That strategy assumed he was tons the best, but nothing in his record suggested he was tons the best, just best.

(I bet the race on the assumption that he would get caught up in a fast pace, thinking it was more likely I would be wrong despite all the speed in the race.)

[dilanesp]

My feeling is that he's not a 12F horse. If I owned him, I'd see what the field looks like. If it looks like he's the only speed I'd probably take a shot at him controlling the pace and stretching out. But if the pace looks more neutral or competitive I don't think there's much downside on a net basis in passing a 12F race with this specific horse. You can start the inevitable freshening now instead of after the Belmont. Then you can look for a prep in July and gear up for the Haskell at the better 9F.

The story I read said they are looking to go in the Travers, at 1 1/4 miles.

(The more intriguing race to me would be the Pacific Classic, with a weight advantage at 1 1/4 miles against California Chrome and Beholder. Could get him Horse of the Year if he won it.)

[the little guy]

The story I read said they are looking to go in the Travers, at 1 1/4 miles.

(The more intriguing race to me would be the Pacific Classic, with a weight advantage at 1 1/4 miles against California Chrome and Beholder. Could get him Horse of the Year if he won it.)

Less money and a tougher field.

You must be a racing manager.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

For the record, I have never referred to him as "Drug" O'Neil. I was simply reporting a fact.

Your post number 2 in this thread read

"You're defending a trainer whose pejorative nickname is "Drug" O'Neil?"

It's splitting a hair to suggest it wasn't you referring to him as Drug O'Neill, as in others may call him that but I don't - I just report what everyone else says. And you have to admit, the sentence would lead the average reader to conclude you didn't think the nickname inappropriate.

I also wrote the post I did to make two other facts more accurate. O'Neill's nine violations were between 2009 and 2013 with none after that date, so while that would average to more than one a year during that time period, it was just more accurate to say the violations didn't occur after June 2013. Finally, TCO2 violations and milkshaking are not synonymous. You can have TCO2 violations for a number of reasons that have nothing to do with milkshaking.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

The story I read said they are looking to go in the Travers, at 1 1/4 miles.

(The more intriguing race to me would be the Pacific Classic, with a weight advantage at 1 1/4 miles against California Chrome and Beholder. Could get him Horse of the Year if he won it.)
I talked to O'Neill today. He was very clear that they don't have a plan to get through to the Breeder's Cup yet. Everything is on the table and once the horse is better he'll huddle with Paul Reddam and decide.

[dilanesp]

Less money and a tougher field.

You must be a racing manager.

Horse of the Year. You win that by beating the best horses.

(At any rate, we'll see if the Del Mar increases the purse of the PC. That's still a possibility.)

[Saratoga_Mike]

I talked to O'Neill today. He was very clear that they don't have a plan to get through to the Breeder's Cup yet. Everything is on the table and once the horse is better he'll huddle with Paul Reddam and decide.

Next time you speak with Doug, ask him if NQ came out of the race 100% sound. Thanks.

[classhandicapper]

The story I read said they are looking to go in the Travers, at 1 1/4 miles.

(The more intriguing race to me would be the Pacific Classic, with a weight advantage at 1 1/4 miles against California Chrome and Beholder. Could get him Horse of the Year if he won it.)

I was thinking he could do the Haskell and then possibly the Travers if he ran well and came out of the race OK.

Before it was announced he was passing the Belmont due to illness, I thought that made sense anyway. If you skip the Belmont, you are a lot fresher than American Pharoah was last year to begin with and you also get to start your freshening sooner. That double looks a lot less demanding if you don't compete in the entire Triple Crown.

I'd wait for older in the Classic or the race just before the Classic. Chrome is tough and Nyquist still has some developing to do.

[NTamm1215]

Horse of the Year. You win that by beating the best horses.

(At any rate, we'll see if the Del Mar increases the purse of the PC. That's still a possibility.)

He can win HOTY with a BC Classic win. Why take on that kind of competition that early?

[VeryOldMan]

It's actually amazing the horses the Zayats have had this decade. Eskendereya, Bodemeister, Paynter, and American Pharoah. American Pharoah was, at best, the second most talented horse among them. Eskendereya's races as a 3YO were scary good.
Sorry if this is a derail - at BEST the second most talented? Very provocative - Eskendereya won two races as a 3YO but didn't even participate in the Triple Crown. Either Bodemeister or Paynter better than AP given all that AP accomplished? Eskendereya too? What is your rank order of them?

Completely agree about the overall Zayat stable in the decade.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Next time you speak with Doug, ask him if NQ came out of the race 100% sound. Thanks.

He did. Other than the fever he's physically fine.

[SG4]

He can win HOTY with a BC Classic win. Why take on that kind of competition that early?

We bemoan the fact the 3yo's don't take on elders until the Breeders Cup nowadays & that big star match-ups hardly ever materialize. If anything as fans of racing & sporting gestures I'd love for public sentiment to start beating the drum for Nyquist to point to the Pacific Classic. Would have to think a purse increase would be in the works if the big 3 all show, likely topping the Travers purse. There's nothing wrong with trying to pull off a summer double ending with the Travers as of course that's no small feat in itself & an easier (albeit not easy) task, but it'd be real nice to see a top class generational match up earlier than October again, and based on the last 2 times Nyquist has shipped (fever each time), maybe he'd appreciate staying on one coast for the latter part of the year.

[thespaah]

:lol: I was thinking the same. I don't care if Nyquist doesn't come to NY. Couldn't care less. He ran in the Derby. He won. He ran in the Preakness. He lost.

Next...
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[thespaah]

Today brings news of a "slight fever" from the Nyquist camp. I doubt that this is the whole story. It is worth remembering the difficult time NYRA gave trainer Doug O'Neil before I'll Have Another's ill-fated run at the Triple Crown. Check this story http://www.foxsports.com/horse-racing/story/belmont-stakes-ill-have-another-questions-surrounded-trainer-owner-even-before-scratch-060812

My favorite part is that NYRA even gave O'Neil crap about cooking oats. Back then the trainer needed Belmont to complete the Triple Crown, but, now, with the Preakness defeat, the shoe is on the other foot. My suspicion is that Mr. O'Neil would love a little payback; Nyquist's non-appearance in the Belmont would cost NYRA big $.
Despite the NYRA shills, when one analyzes the situation, why should Nyquist attempt the crueling third leg of the Triple Crown? The smart move is a brief summer rest and return to favorable. friendly West Coast. This is the sensible path towards the Breeder's Cup on home grounds.....plus the chance to stick it to NYRA might be irresistible.
I stated that on Sunday. There is no reason for Nyquist to run the Belmont.
I said "send him home. Let him rest. Bring him back this summer. Maybe we will see him at the Spa."....

[SG4]

I don't even think it's close. He beat Bodemeister fair and square in the Preakness, and Bodemeister could have been a superstar if he had stayed sound.

It's actually amazing the horses the Zayats have had this decade. Eskendereya, Bodemeister, Paynter, and American Pharoah. American Pharoah was, at best, the second most talented horse among them. Eskendereya's races as a 3YO were scary good.

I think we all romanticize horses on the what could've been level when they get injured early in their careers...American Pharoah went out & did it, dominated a well-regarded crop through the triple crown and won the Classic by ten. That is heads & shoulders above what any of those other horses did or probably would've done if healthy. Even if Eskendereya went out & did anything comparable we'd be talking years later about what a weak crop it was & putting the accomplishments down that way.

Now if you define talent as each horse running their absolute best race in a given circumstance, then anything goes in a theoretical match-up...but if consistency is part of talent, I've got to be inclined to think American Pharoah would get the best of those horses the majority of the time.

CJ - any chance you could weigh in on what Timeform fig Bodemeister got in the Derby (did they have the same pace adjusted figs then as are being used now?), would have to think that'd be the highest one around over the last several years +.

On the original question of Nyquist vs. I'll Have Another, too close to call in my opinion.

[dilanesp]

He can win HOTY with a BC Classic win. Why take on that kind of competition that early?

Weight break.

Several 3 year olds have run in the PC.

[NTamm1215]

We bemoan the fact the 3yo's don't take on elders until the Breeders Cup nowadays & that big star match-ups hardly ever materialize. If anything as fans of racing & sporting gestures I'd love for public sentiment to start beating the drum for Nyquist to point to the Pacific Classic. Would have to think a purse increase would be in the works if the big 3 all show, likely topping the Travers purse. There's nothing wrong with trying to pull off a summer double ending with the Travers as of course that's no small feat in itself & an easier (albeit not easy) task, but it'd be real nice to see a top class generational match up earlier than October again, and based on the last 2 times Nyquist has shipped (fever each time), maybe he'd appreciate staying on one coast for the latter part of the year.

We don't bemoan 3YOs not facing elders in August. If Nyquist were to run in a race like the PA Derby, which has become nothing more than a money grab for owners and trainers, and skip the Goodwood, then that would be more of an issue.

A year ago the public was clamoring for the Triple Crown winner to run in the Travers. Now the Derby winner should skip it to face what will likely be the two best horses in the country for a smaller purse?

[andtheyreoff]

It's actually amazing the horses the Zayats have had this decade. Eskendereya, Bodemeister, Paynter, and American Pharoah. American Pharoah was, at best, the second most talented horse among them. Eskendereya's races as a 3YO were scary good.

Saying a horse like Eskendereya or Bodemeister was better than American Pharoah is like saying Herb Score was a better pitcher than Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez.

There may have been a lot of talent in Eskendereya, but in the end, Pharoah accomplished more, and therefore deserves a loftier place in racing history.

[SG4]

We don't bemoan 3YOs not facing elders in August. If Nyquist were to run in a race like the PA Derby, which has become nothing more than a money grab for owners and trainers, and skip the Goodwood, then that would be more of an issue.

A year ago the public was clamoring for the Triple Crown winner to run in the Travers. Now the Derby winner should skip it to face what will likely be the two best horses in the country for a smaller purse?

Forget August, what happened to when some distance challenged but fast 3yo's were ready to take on their elders in the Met Mile! The Woody Stephens has killed that notion, and the PA Derby in a similar vein has prevented a lot of interesting match-ups late in the year with 3yo's trying elders. However, with the lack of big 3yo races out west, the Pacific Classic is time for the 3yo's out there to step into prime time. Two of the last four winners of the Pacific Classic were 3yo's, so it's not some crazy notion. It just so happens that this year there are 2 bears likely waiting in the older division, but Nyquist is a champ & shouldn't be looking to duck anyone. I'm thinking as a west coast horse he might appreciate staying out there, see where he stacks up in the Pacific Classic & then come back fresh for a rematch in the Breeders Cup if everyone makes it there OK. Like I said before, I don't think it'd end up being a smaller purse for the Pac Classic cause I'd have to think incentives would be in play if the main shooters show up. If he comes east & pulls off the Travers instead, that's great too, and if that's what the connections value more I have no qualms. You beat a duo like Cali Chrome & Beholder though, and say do it again in the BC, you're moving up to a whole new status...not that I necessarily think he would do, but I'd be intrigued as heck to find out if he could.

[the little guy]

In all likelihood, Nyquist will be a significantly lower price to win the Travers than the Pacific Classic if those two horses show up. A lot of "ifs" there....but that should certainly play into their decision.

[rastajenk]

I would rather see Nyquist and Exaggerator sustain, or build on, their rivalry than getting pressured by us fans to run against 4-and-ups. We haven't had a good rivalry in years. The Triple Crown last year was fun; a good ol' fashioned rivalry could be even more fun.

[classhandicapper]

Firing Line is back in training and unless I missed it, I don't think Dortmund is retired. One or both of them might still recover their best form and continue developing relative to their 3yo form despite all the issues. I thought both of them were really good. That could make for some interesting races later in the year also.

[cj]

Firing Line is back in training and unless I missed it, I don't think Dortmund is retired. One or both of them might still recover their best form and continue developing relative to their 3yo form despite all the issues. I thought both of them were really good. That could make for some interesting races later in the year also.


I believe I saw Dortmund is back training too just yesterday.

[cj]

Sunrise Stallions ‏@SunriseStallion 21h21 hours ago
Dortmund posted 1st timed work since rejoining Baffert barn; 3f in :39.20 @losalracing. Can't wait for his return!

[classhandicapper]

Sunrise Stallions ‏@SunriseStallion 21h21 hours ago
Dortmund posted 1st timed work since rejoining Baffert barn; 3f in :39.20 @losalracing. Can't wait for his return!

Great news. I have him on my mail watch. I guess I didn't get that email yet. ;)

[Saratoga_Mike]

He did. Other than the fever he's physically fine.

We'll see.

[cj]

CJ - any chance you could weigh in on what Timeform fig Bodemeister got in the Derby (did they have the same pace adjusted figs then as are being used now?), would have to think that'd be the highest one around over the last several years +.

On the original question of Nyquist vs. I'll Have Another, too close to call in my opinion.

Here is the Preakness of 2012 with the last three figures for all three:

[cj]

This year's Preakness:

[cj]

Eskendereya

[cj]

American Pharoah

[the little guy]

Thanks Craig. I guess maybe I'm not as crazy as some seem to think:-)

[cj]

Thanks Craig. I guess maybe I'm not as crazy as some seem to think:-)

That was a crazy good Preakness in 2012. Sad that none of the top 3 every ran again.

[OTM Al]

That was a crazy good Preakness in 2012. Sad that none of the top 3 every ran again.
Always going to be a favorite of mine given where I got to watch the race from

[PaceAdvantage]

Your post number 2 in this thread read

"You're defending a trainer whose pejorative nickname is "Drug" O'Neil?"

It's splitting a hair to suggest it wasn't you referring to him as Drug O'Neill, as in others may call him that but I don't - I just report what everyone else says. And you have to admit, the sentence would lead the average reader to conclude you didn't think the nickname inappropriate. Which is precisely why I wrote a follow-up post clarifying that to the best of my knowledge, I have never referred to him by that nickname, nor have I ever really come down on him on this board. I don't consider pointing out what others call him to be the same as ME calling him by that name.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

We'll see.
I'll talk with him again in two weeks or so to see how Nyquist is doing. I think we'll know more when he's back at Santa Anita and Dr. Carpenter can do a full work up on the horse.

[SG4]

Here is the Preakness of 2012 with the last three figures for all three:

Thanks for all those figs CJ - I was under the impression the pace component played a bigger role in the final fig earned than it appears, like I expected Bodemeister's Derby # to be several points higher than I'll Have Another's winning race, but guess that wasn't the case.

[classhandicapper]

IMHO

Bodemeister was 2 for 6 lifetime. Both his wins and his peak figure in the Preakness came with loose leads. Very talented, but I think he may have been one of those very fast horses that did his best running loose. I really wish we saw more from him.

Most figure makers had I'll Have Another slower than the major contenders coming into the KY Derby. It wasn't until the SA Derby became a key race that people started taking a better look at the quality of that field. IMHO, he was second best in the Derby behind Bode (pace). Most people thought Bode was better both before and after the Derby. So much of his reputation is derived off a single huge figure in the Preakness when he ran down a loose Bode in a terrific effort.

Eskendereya looked like he might be something special right from the start, but he would not be the first Pletcher horse to look like a rock star early in his career off 1 or 2 huge figures without becoming great. Materiality comes to mind just last year. Verrazano was another.

All very talented, but I would take AP over any of them. His connections (Baffert) thought he was a killer right from the start. He had terrific speed and could use it to his advantage (like Bode), but he could also relax just off the pace if required. Other than an effort in the Travers (where IMHO he was on the deeper more tiring part of the track while dueling), he was dominating and winning with reserve in most starts. In his struggle in the Derby he may have been in the better paths outside, but he lost a TON of ground chasing. IMO, there are no questions about his greatness. My only regret is not seeing it clearly before the Derby and not seeing him run at 4.

[cj]

Thanks for all those figs CJ - I was under the impression the pace component played a bigger role in the final fig earned than it appears, like I expected Bodemeister's Derby # to be several points higher than I'll Have Another's winning race, but guess that wasn't the case.

It depends on surface and distance, something we study regularly to get the right amount.

[mountainman]

Next time you speak with Doug, ask him if NQ came out of the race 100% sound. Thanks.

We have a winner.

[Thomas Roulston]

Like Nyquist would have gotten a mile and a half.

[cj]

We have a winner.

I've heard from a few reliable people he wasn't sound afterwards.

[mountainman]

Me, too. And I heard stuff weeks ago.

[outofthebox]

Can't comment on the soundness speculations, but my friend did pull the blood on Nyquist and his blood was "out of whack". And he did have a temp..

[Redbullsnation]

Nyquist won't run the Belmont?? Meh. Doesn't matter. If he can't go there, there's always the Travers, or the Philly Derby. Plenty of prep races to go around for him before the Breeders Cup...

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Me, too. And I heard stuff weeks ago.

Tell me what you are hearing. I'd be happy to ask O'Neill to comment. I talked to him the Tuesday after the Preakness and he indicated Nyquist's legs were fine.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Doug O'Neill said that Nyquist is doing well and that they should have a decision on where he'll be racing next in about two weeks.

[Zaf]

:ThmbUp: :)