HONG KONG/ShaTin Sun 5/22 Live

[Nitro]

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with BIG fields in ALL but 2 of the 11 races (2 All Weather Dirt & 9 Turf)

Post Time Race #1 – 12:30 AM SUN EST

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

GL if you’re playing & feel free to join in !
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1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher).

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher).

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.


3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.
.
.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for May 22nd at Sha Tin.
Weather report: 82 degrees Partly Cloudy wind: NNE 2 mph.
Post time: 12.30am ET 9.30am PT Rail: Course ‘A’, track listed: Good AWT: Wet Fast
Feature: Race 4 HK GIII The Sha Tin Vase $ 386K US Race 8 The Standard Chartered Champions & Chater Cup $ 1.2million US
Total purses: $ 2.8 million US


Links to past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20160522_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html


Vulnerable favourites:
Race 9 :3: Momentum Lucky (3-1) Breaking from the 12 barrier in the short run to the turn, 4th straight race he’s been drawn far outside, eventually will take it’s toll.


Horses coming out of key races (multiple winners that have come back out of those races and won at or higher class than today's class).
Race 5 :7: Unique Joyful (15-1) Race 439 the 2nd, 5th and the 7th have come back and won.
Race 6 :9: World Record (27-1) Race 567 winner, 6th and 11th won their next time out.


Horses off my watch list:
Race 4 :1: Not Listenin’tome (7-1) Race 607 Pressed forward from outside draw, racing wide till getting cover 3L from leader at turn. Battled gamely in straight though severely checked 100m.

Race 4 :3: Amazing Kids (2-1) Race 607 Unable to match early pace, slipping behind midfield. Took inside run in straight but checked 300m and shifted out. Finished off nicely.

Race 4 :7: Born In China (8-1) Race 600 Held up behind midfield, 5Ls to make up on leader 400M, picked up strongly passing 200M, motored home and was just denied narrowly.

Race 4 :8: Fabulous One (10-1) Race 622 Rolled forward to share the lead along the outer fence, kept on gamely until headed by the winner over the last stride.

Race 6 :2: Molly’s Jade Star (8-1) Race 605 Prominent initially, 1 off 1 back & over-raced 900m, shuffled to midfield 1 off, not clear run in stretch, shaken up 250m, boxed on late.


Longshots:
Race 2 :8: My Cup Overflows (14-1)
Race 4 :9: Divine Boy (32-1)
Race 7 :4: Savvy Nature (14-1)
Race 9 :1: Principal (49-1)

[Nitro]

Hi there Woody!
Thanks once again for some insight into this morning races.
I’ll be following your notes as the morning progresses.
Good Luck!

[Nitro]

R#1 – 1-7 W/ 3-5

I see that TVG will be showing the HK races live this morning.

[duncan04]

R1- :3: Arm Runda

[Parkview_Pirate]

Evening gents.

Race 1: :3: looks all world, will try to sneak the :6: in there.

Tri: :3: with :1: :7: with :6:
Swinger: :3: :6:

[Nitro]

R#1 – 1-7 W/ 3-5

I see that TVG will be showing the HK races live this morning.
Nice call there Woody! Good value too! :ThmbUp:
Results

R# 1 = 6-3-2-1 - Nothing in that one - No clues on that LS Winner

[duncan04]

R1- :3: Arm Runda

Finished second. Nice call Parkview!

[duncan04]

R2- :8: My Cup Overflows to WP

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 1-7 W/ 12-2-10-3

[woodbinepmi]

Race 2 Class 5 AWT 1800 Metres

:1: Commandant (5-1) Ran on the good part of the track last time but refused to split thru a hole, getting the weight allowance and likes the dirt

[Parkview_Pirate]

First race was weird, with one of the chalks getting the scenic route forced on him. Made some beer money on the :6: , but really didn't think he'd win.

Race 2: Tough, and not a big fan of the AWT anyway. Will take small each way on the :8: , and hope he gets good position early from the 14 hole....

[duncan04]

R3- :6: Victory Marvel

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 1-7 W/ 12-2-10-3
Hi there Duncan & Parkview! Glad you could join us!

Results

R# 2 = 7-2-13-8 - WIN – QUIN

$2.00 WIN – 7 - $8.30
$2.00 QUINELLA – 2-7 - $34.30

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 Class 4 1200 Metres

:3: Regency Darling (8-1) Couldn't find an excuse for his last effort other than the post position and getting that same kind of luck at the draw again with the 12 barrier. Chiong should get him into the race early just hopefully won't have to use too much. Over :9: Pick up of Moreira, closed well at big odds after racing too far back. :6: was wide and off the pace on a night everything was winning on the front at the Valley, then blocked in the stretch. Get's the rail and has run well at Shat Tin before. :1: was all out and was helped with the weight allowance to get up on May 1st :12: Throw last race out.
For third only: :8: first time starter for Size and :5: trouble two races back.

:3: / :9: :6: :1: :12: / :8: :5:

[Nitro]

R# 3 - 6-9 W/ 13-3-8-12

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 3: Bombs away with the :2:

[duncan04]

Good luck the rest of the way guys! Going to call it a night

[Nitro]

R# 3 - 6-9 W/ 13-3-8-12
Results:

R# 3 = 3-8-13-6 - QUIN – Top 2 saw the late action #3: 9/1 to 5.6/1 & #8: 12/1 to 8.6

$2.00 QUINELLA – 3-8 - $56.20
Too bad no Super/Quartet bet– 4.5K!

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 3-1 W/ 2-8-7

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 HKGIII 1200 Metres

Have 4 horses on my watch list :1: :3: :7: :8: (hate when I get multiples in the same race off my watch list), Could make a case for every horse in here. Buying the race.
All here with the :6: in race 5 in the Double.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 4: Taking an each way play on the :5: . He owes me money, and with the smaller field and lighter weight, I expect him to pounce late. Saver QP with the :2: .

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 3-1 W/ 2-8-7
Results:

R# 4 = 2-3-4-5 - QUIN

$2.00 QUINELLA – 2-3 - $10.40

[woodbinepmi]

Race 5 Class 4 1600 Metres

:6: Electronic Phoenix (7-2) In my opinion is a good price for this runner, is a deep closer that just missed out in his last while encountering a little trouble, and beaten by a longshot. Picks up Moreira, hopefully he gets some pace.
:1: Throw out his last, should be on the pace with :10: Chiong on board and her 7 pounds off. :7: comes out of a key race. :3: was outrun by the winner after going 4 wide.
Alive in the Doubles with the :6:
Doubles:
:6: with :2: :1: :7: :11: :3: in the 6th
:1: :10: :7: :3: with :2: in the 6th

[Nitro]

R# 5 - 6-5 W/ 10-11-3-13

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 5: Like the :10: , with saver Qs with the :3: :6: :11:

[Nitro]

R# 5 - 6-5 W/ 10-11-3-13
Results:

R# 5 = 1-10-3-9 - Nothing in that one – Not much action on the Winner

[woodbinepmi]

Race 6 Class 4 1400 Metres

:2: Molly's Jade Star (8-1) trip notes from his last start: Molly’s Jade Star (8-1) Race 605 Prominent initially, 1 off 1 back & over-raced 900m, shuffled to midfield 1 off, not clear run in stretch, shaken up 250m, boxed on late. Another pick up for the bug girl, not too keen on the barrier draw but there is a long enough run at 7 furlongs to the turn to get over.
Alive in the Double from the last race :1: with the :2: in here
Betting to win at those odds.
Q'ing with the :1: :7: :11: :3:

[Nitro]

R# 6 - 1-3 W/ 7-2-6-5

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 6: looks chalky, but will take a flyer on the :4: , with saver QPs with :1: :3:

[Nitro]

R# 6 - 1-3 W/ 7-2-6-5
Nice call on the Winner Woody!

Results:

R# 6 = 2-12-1-13 - Nothing in that one –
Winner went from 8.4/1 to 6.8/1 & Placer went from 98/1 to 44/1 :eek:

[woodbinepmi]

Thank you sir, chasing the money I gave to them in April and the start of May.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 7 Class 3 1800 Metres

Don't have much of a feel in here, going to make a Dutch bet on the :3: Dashing King (13-1) and :4: Savvy Nature (12-1) Making them 5.75-1 as a couple.

[Nitro]

R# 7 - 6-12 W/ 8-5-4-14

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 7: Each way bet on the :4:

[Nitro]

R# 7 - 6-12 W/ 8-5-4-14
Results:

R# 7 = 13-6-14-12 - Nothing in that one – No clues on that BIG LS Winner

[Nitro]

R# 8 - 1 W/ 2-3-4-5

[woodbinepmi]

Race 8 GI 2400 Metres

Small win bet on :4: Blazing Speed (6-1) speed rating almost equal to Werther"s last race due to going very wide the entire trip.

Added some doubles :1: :4: with :7: in the 9th

[Parkview_Pirate]

R#1 – 1-7 W/ 3-5

I see that TVG will be showing the HK races live this morning.

TVG has wagering again (finally), but on this race (8), you can't bet the :1: !!!

Race 8: :4: with QPs :1: :7:

Tri: :1: :4: with :1: :4: :7: with :1: :4: :5: :7:

[Nitro]

R# 8 - 1 W/ 2-3-4-5
Nice call on the Winner Woody! That was some finish!
Results:

R# 8 = 4-6-1-2 - Nothing in that one – Placer took the late action 13/1 to 7/1

[woodbinepmi]

That was the best race of the year. Thought I was dead meat at the 150 metre mark when he wouldn't change leads (he never does) but he showed some real heart.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Very exciting race, for sure. Can't believe the $1.30 tri 4-6-1 paid $247.00.

I've had a ton of photos for my ponies today, and have reeled in a couple here tonight. Never a doubt with the :4: dog..... :D

[woodbinepmi]

Race 9 Class 3 1200 Metres

:7: Noble De Boy (7-2) Closed well and won with lots left in the tank after breaking slowly from the gate. Gets a better draw, looks good.

:2: I think he is a very vulnerable favourite breaking from the 12 hole with tons of early speed in here and the short run to the turn. :1: Another need for lead type, but is dropping down after a real bad race. :3: wide in last.

Doubles: :7: with :4: :2: :6: in the 10th
:2: :1: :3: with :4: :6: in the 10th

[Nitro]

R# 9 - 2-11 W/ 4-7-12-9

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 9: :4: with :2: :7: :9:

[Nitro]

R# 9 - 2-11 W/ 4-7-12-9
Results:

R# 9 = 4-13-2-14 - Nothing in that one – No clues on that BIG LS Placer

[woodbinepmi]

Almost got lucky there when the stewards were debating to declare the 7th in the last as a non-runner. Oh, well.

[Parkview_Pirate]

After back-to-back perfect trips and thrillers down to the wire, I think I've used up my daily allotment of racing luck.

Race 10: I'm taking a cheap flyer here on the AWT, which I'm not too crazy about.

:9: with :6: :11: :13:

[Nitro]

R# 10 - 6-13 W/ 4-11-2-12

[Parkview_Pirate]

Almost got lucky there when the stewards were debating to declare the 7th in the last as a non-runner. Oh, well.

Unlike their counterparts in North America, the stewards rarely pull the trigger when makings changes, whether it's a DQ or declaring a horse a non-starter. Overall, a system I much prefer, with the human element of judgement mostly removed from the process.

[woodbinepmi]

After back-to-back perfect trips and thrillers down to the wire, I think I've used up my daily allotment of racing luck.

Race 10: I'm taking a cheap flyer here on the AWT, which I'm not too crazy about.

:9: with :6: :11: :13:
Just FYI Parkview, their AWT is actually a dirt track and not synthetic. Was under the assumption that it was until Pat Cummings of the HKJC informed me of it.

[woodbinepmi]

Unlike their counterparts in North America, the stewards rarely pull the trigger when makings changes, whether it's a DQ or declaring a horse a non-starter. Overall, a system I much prefer, with the human element of judgement mostly removed from the process.
There hasn't been a DQ this entire year, almost had one in a 1000 metre race a few months ago, but they let it stand.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 10 Class 2 1650 metres

Win bet on :4: just to watch the race.

[Nitro]

R# 10 - 6-13 W/ 4-11-2-12
Results:

R# 10 = 5-4-6-9 - Nothing in that one – LS Winner went from 21/1 to 14/1 :eek:

[Nitro]

R#11 – 6-5 W/ 1-4-7-10-

Have a good day guys!

[Parkview_Pirate]

Just FYI Parkview, their AWT is actually a dirt track and not synthetic. Was under the assumption that it was until Pat Cummings of the HKJC informed me of it.

Yeah, I seem to recall someone mentioning that before. I'm not sure if it's because of the tighter turns, or because some horses don't like it or what, but I find the AWT races tough. Like the race tonight, where the :5: just jumps out of the ground for the win.

[Parkview_Pirate]

R#11 – 6-5 W/ 1-4-7-10-

Have a good day guys!

You too Nitro - thanks for hosting another HK thread.....

[Parkview_Pirate]

There hasn't been a DQ this entire year, almost had one in a 1000 metre race a few months ago, but they let it stand.

Yeah, at the end of January I had a nice win bet on Aerovelocity who almost knocked Peniaphobia over the rail in the Centenary Sprint Cup. Loved it, at 8-1. "Pay the winners!" as SRU would say.

Race 11: :7: to win, saver QP :4: :7: