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View Full Version : Preakness 2016 Contenders / Value Line / Analysis


PaceAdvantage
05-21-2016, 12:01 PM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/3.jpg Nyquist (9-5)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/5.jpg Exaggerator (9-2)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/8.jpg Laoban (5-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/10.jpg Fellowship (14-1)

Shudder the thought, but I tweaked things a bit in terms of my line creation method. I know, I know, never tweak what has been, in general, a pretty good thing. But when it originally came up with a value line for Nyquist at 5-1, I didn't want thaskalos laughing at me too hard from outside the perimeter gates of PA land...http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/smilies/47.gif

That's the good news. The bad news is, I really like this new line. And that's probably a bad thing. I'm comfortable with it. That's a really bad thing. Uncomfortable lines usually produce the boxcar payouts (and the long losing streaks!). But, whatever. Time is running short and I need to get this up on the website!

Nyquist - We all know the story by now. Nothing much left to write. He's won every dance, and this year, he's won with relative ease each time. The track will be wet today, but I don't think that will matter to this horse. He's the one to beat, and as always, I'm going to try and beat him.

Exaggerator - A wet track certainly shouldn't degrade this one's chances. He's lost all four times he's faced Nyquist, and he'll probably lose to him again today. Not going to get 9/2 on him today, so he won't have my money. He doesn't even have the best closing number in today's race, so I'm quite comfortable in leaving him out of the top spot on my tickets.

Laoban - Ahhhh...a horse whom most everyone will be tossing due to the fact that he hasn't faced this kind of field, he seems to be committed to the lead big time, and he loses ground in the stretch with extreme regularity. Not the type you want to bet going 9.5 panels. His jockey, however, is having one helluva year so far, and I do enjoy betting the speed of the race on a wet track at big odds. Definitely will have some of my money.

Fellowship - Best closing number in the field and second time out for trainer Mark Casse. But, he's been beaten handily by Sharp Azteca and Nyquist in his last two respectively, and may not like an off track. That's why he's 30-1 in the morning line, but that's also why he's worth betting at about half those odds.

Good luck today!