Preakness 2016

[EMD4ME]

I'm starting this thread as I don't see one simply about the 2016 Preakness.

TP horse is looking good to me. Looks like a very simple race. Nyquist is solid. Few chinks.

I like TP's horse, Kent should be coming late. Cold tri box. 3511. Mix in the 8 if the rail is supremely golden in superfecta boxes.

Stradivari is looking awfully sexy. Especially if the legit speed of the 8 (hated this horse forever until his last, what a nice performance) makes Nyquist run wide on a speed track chasing a hot pace.

If Johnny V tucks to the rail and saves ground on the Clubhouse turn and angles out as late as can be, look out. Upset special.

I am liking this horse for Saturday.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm not touching the exotics. Gonna play a future bet on Nyquist to win the Preakness at -155, & to win the triple crown at +195, the Preakness will be heavy.

[rastajenk]

Looking at the current odds:

Ny 4/5
Ex 2-1
Strad 9-1
Collected 13-1 I think, just went off the screen

The rest are much longer

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll happily throw Nyquist out again. I don't understand people's fascination with picking the winner every time (not accusing you of this mind you, just saying in general).

Not only would I never bet the favorite in a triple crown race or the Breeders' Cup, I actively look to BEAT THE FAVORITE every time, no matter who it is.

I just don't care who the favorite is or what they've done.

Of course, I lost a lot of American Pharoah races last year using this strategy, but made up for it in the Travers. Think about it....with the price I got in the Travers, I could have lost 13-14 races in a row betting against AP and still come out ahead....

[Andrick]

I'll happily throw Nyquist out again. I don't understand people's fascination with picking the winner every time (not accusing you of this mind you, just saying in general).

Not only would I never bet the favorite in a triple crown race or the Breeders' Cup, I actively look to BEAT THE FAVORITE every time, no matter who it is.

I just don't care who the favorite is or what they've done.

Of course, I lost a lot of American Pharoah races last year using this strategy, but made up for it in the Travers. Think about it....with the price I got in the Travers, I could have lost 13-14 races in a row betting against AP and still come out ahead....

That was a great call last year in the Travers and one that I was regretting not making myself after watching the post parade. Keen Ice looked like a man amongst boys when they went by the screen. I still like your call on Shackleford's Preakness better, though, since your information about the dead rail in his Derby helped me land on him as well at a very nice price.

[RXB]

I'll happily throw Nyquist out again. I don't understand people's fascination with picking the winner every time (not accusing you of this mind you, just saying in general).

Not only would I never bet the favorite in a triple crown race or the Breeders' Cup, I actively look to BEAT THE FAVORITE every time, no matter who it is.

I just don't care who the favorite is or what they've done.

Of course, I lost a lot of American Pharoah races last year using this strategy, but made up for it in the Travers. Think about it....with the price I got in the Travers, I could have lost 13-14 races in a row betting against AP and still come out ahead....

But what if you'd bet on a horse other than Keen Ice, or what if it had been a different rival that won that day? You're not going to hit a winning longshot every time the favourite loses.

American Pharoah went off as an odds-on betting favourite eight times and won seven of those races (all by sizable margins), finishing second in the other event. On a flat $2 bet in each of those races, he'd have returned $20.90 for $16 wagered. Instead of losing almost 20% as per favourites on the whole, he returned a flat bet profit of 30%. And all it would've taken is for him to run a length better in the Travers and you're 0-fer.

[Tom]

Simple race for me.
Nothing more to look at.

Nyquist / All - Exaggerator / Exaggerator

Nyquist / Exaggerator / All - Exaggerator

I do not think Exaggerator will be anywhere near as impressive on this track with the flatter turns and the inherent bias towards early. But looking at the rest, he may only need to be 75% effective to once again have the best view of the winner.

[Rex Phinney]

But what if you'd bet on a horse other than Keen Ice, or what if it had been a different rival that won that day? You're not going to hit a winning longshot every time the favourite loses.

American Pharoah went off as an odds-on betting favourite eight times and won seven of those races (all by sizable margins), finishing second in the other event. On a flat $2 bet in each of those races, he'd have returned $20.90 for $16 wagered. Instead of losing almost 20% as per favourites on the whole, he returned a flat bet profit of 30%. And all it would've taken is for him to run a length better in the Travers and you're 0-fer.

And if you had used your strategy vs PA's for the last 37 years who would be ahead?

In a game where favorites lose more than they win you cannot expect to do well taking odds like we saw on AP or what we see on Nyquist.

[Rex Phinney]

Simple race for me.
Nothing more to look at.

Nyquist / All - Exaggerator / Exaggerator

Nyquist / Exaggerator / All - Exaggerator

I do not think Exaggerator will be anywhere near as impressive on this track with the flatter turns and the inherent bias towards early. But looking at the rest, he may only need to be 75% effective to once again have the best view of the winner.

I agree 100%, this race looks awful from a talent perspective.

I think the connections of Exaggerator are doing him a disservice running here, the horse has Belmont written all over him, giving him a 5 week rest to come into that race against a more used up Nyquist would be a gold mine IMO.

[RXB]

And if you had used your strategy vs PA's for the last 37 years who would be ahead?

In a game where favorites lose more than they win you cannot expect to do well taking odds like we saw on AP or what we see on Nyquist.

My strategy in a race like this is to pass. So right there I'll be ahead of most people who bet the race.

[Rex Phinney]

My strategy in a race like this is to pass. So right there I'll be ahead of most people who bet the race.

I'm inclined todo the same.

My point was simply that the strategy to beat the favorite in the big races, especially at the kind of odds AP and Nyquist are going off at, historically is the right play.

[beefas]

My bets $20 6,10 with the 6,10 with the 3,5,7...$100 to show on fellowship!

[depalma113]

Odds needed for a win Preakness Bet

Nestle Quick 9/2
Exaggerator 9/2
Uncle Lino 8/1
Collected 12/1
Strativerdi 15/1
Fellowship 20-1