Rain For Preakness Likely

[PowerUpPaynter]

Forecast im looking at calls for 66 and rain all day for the Preakness. Advantage Exaggerator?

[upthecreek]

Forecast im looking at calls for 66 and rain all day for the Preakness. Advantage Exaggerator?
He'll be way over bet the if it rains

[rastajenk]

Mud might help Nyquist as much or more than it helps anything else.

[tanner12oz]

Forecast im looking at calls for 66 and rain all day for the Preakness. Advantage Exaggerator?

forecast was good till it updated this am...still a ways out..might change again

[PowerUpPaynter]

forecast was good till it updated this am...still a ways out..might change again


hope so cold and rainy sounds crumby

[andtheyreoff]

I saw the thread title, and I went and placed a bet that Exaggerator would be mentioned within the first two posts. I won, and managed to secure odds of 1/1,000,000.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I saw the thread title, and I went and placed a bet that Exaggerator would be mentioned within the first two posts. I won, and managed to secure odds of 1/1,000,000.


Really though Exaggerators persieved muddy status is because of the Santa Anita Derby and really that standout performance was probably more of a product of the pace of the race...

[tanner12oz]

hope so cold and rainy sounds crumby

remember the deluge just prior to last years Preakness??? now that was nuts

[rastajenk]

And it didn't seem to affect the Pharoah one bit.

[Ocala Mike]

Did anyone have BEE BEE BEE (1972) being mentioned in the first 10 posts? That would probably be worth 100/1 or so.

[SecretAgentMan]

I hope it pours down in the Preakness, Nyquist will still win easier than he won in the KD. No one can challenge him in the Preakness.

[charm city whizz]

remember the deluge just prior to last years Preakness??? now that was nuts

Tanner what did you do when that happened? They evacuated the whole apron area I thought I saw on TV, sold our tix that morning friends foot hurt too bad to walk to the track

[f2tornado]

The two best global forecast models do suggest an all day rain event is possible that day. Too early to say "likely". If it is a slopfest then I will happily box Exaggerator and Nyquist and collect my 4-1exacta payoff. Maybe 8-1 if Exaggerator gets on top.

[tanner12oz]

And it didn't seem to affect the Pharoah one bit.

hindsight 20/20..should have mortgaged my house and bet AP when it started pouring last year

[tanner12oz]

Tanner what did you do when that happened? They evacuated the whole apron area I thought I saw on TV, sold our tix that morning friends foot hurt too bad to walk to the track

got soaked...moved to the passageway to get to the grandstand but the inside was so crowded you couldn't get in...at that point I was drenched and didn't really care. near post time went back out and watched the race with probably 2 inches of water in my loafers. AP became lock city once the track turned to soup.

thing that sucks is the programs, ticket stubs and collectors items because of the triple crown were albeit ruined. ive got my stubs, programs and crap from just about the past decade but nothing made it out last year...

[PowerUpPaynter]

It was different last year tho becuase it was in the 90's all day until the rain. This year low 60s and rain. will be miserable to be in the infield all day cold and wet.

[AlBundy33]

Did anyone have BEE BEE BEE (1972) being mentioned in the first 10 posts? That would probably be worth 100/1 or so.

I know this is off topic, but I wish I could actually see that race on video one day.

[Nitro]

The two best global forecast models do suggest an all day rain event is possible that day. Too early to say "likely". If it is a slopfest then I will happily box Exaggerator and Nyquist and collect my 4-1exacta payoff. Maybe 8-1 if Exaggerator gets on top.
The weekend report from Doug O’Neill was that Nyquist didn’t like the off going during the workout, he LOVED it. There was no mention of how fast the W/O was but apparently O’Neill was pretty excited about it, because he also mentioned that watching the W/O gave him goose-bumps. :eek:

[dilanesp]

Really though Exaggerators persieved muddy status is because of the Santa Anita Derby and really that standout performance was probably more of a product of the pace of the race...

He's run 3 times on mud, not once.

[whodoyoulike]

And it didn't seem to affect the Pharoah one bit.

But, AP showed he could handle an off track in a previous race. I think he may have been the only one in last year's Preakness but, may be wrong just going off memory.

Nyquist should also do okay if it rains.

[Secondbest]

I know this is off topic, but I wish I could actually see that race on video one day.
Try Dr. Romans site chef-de-race.com.He has videos of tons of past races.Maybe he has that one.

[tucker6]

Try Dr. Romans site chef-de-race.com.He has videos of tons of past races.Maybe he has that one.
Maybe the poster KirisClown has it as well.

[Shemp Howard]

What about the drunken broads in the infield?????

[castaway01]

What about the drunken broads in the infield?????

They'll be okay, we've got signs posted with your picture on them telling them to avoid you.

[PowerUpPaynter]

the forecast keep deteriorating everytime I check now its down to 60 with rain all day. Thats gotta hurt attendance

[f2tornado]

World's best forecast model but we're still 5 days out...
http://plainschase.com/cards/1a/euro.gif

[PowerUpPaynter]

is there a place where you can bet the over/under on the attendance online? temp into the 50's and downpours all day the turnout is gonna take a beating.

Id lay heavy on the under... better odds than Nyquist

[tucker6]

rain potentially heavy Fri night and especially Sat. 1 to 3 inches of rain are
suggested by the 00Z ecmwf while the gfs is much wetter with
widespread 3+ inches. Nonetheless, it still looks like a pretty good
soaker Sat.

[tucker6]

World's best forecast model but we're still 5 days out...

A weather geek like me I see. :D

[charm city whizz]

I'll capitalize on these tix at a Cheaper price!!!!

[ronsmac]

is there a place where you can bet the over/under on the attendance online? temp into the 50's and downpours all day the turnout is gonna take a beating.

Id lay heavy on the under... better odds than NyquistPimlico fudges the attendance figures every year.

[cj]

Pimlico fudges the attendance figures every year.

All tracks do.

[f2tornado]

A weather geek like me I see. :D

Yes. I got my meteorology degree back in 2002. I got away from that field as the working hours were brutal. Most non-TV mets work a rotating 24/7 schedule including holidays.

I see the 00z ECMWF also squirts out 2+ inches for BWI. I guess we can call it likely now. The track is getting a presoak today as well. We will know if Exaggerator is a real mudder or just a one hit wonder.

[minethatbird08]

Yes. I got my meteorology degree back in 2002. I got away from that field as the working hours were brutal. Most non-TV mets work a rotating 24/7 schedule including holidays.

I see the 00z ECMWF also squirts out 2+ inches for BWI. I guess we can call it likely now. The track is getting a presoak today as well. We will know if Exaggerator is a real mudder or just a one hit wonder.

His father was a mudder...

[ronsmac]

All tracks do.Fudging the numbers was probably too kind . I remember when 80k was packed yet the year the infield was a ghost town they still announced 80k or so.

[dilanesp]

Fudging the numbers was probably too kind . I remember when 80k was packed yet the year the infield was a ghost town they still announced 80k or so.

cj's right. Lots of tracks fudge the numbers. Back in the 1980's and early 1990's, the Churchill attendance figures at major races were considered a joke by a lot of racing officials out here (you could tell they were inflated because they were way out of proportion to the on-track handle; they announced per capitas of $80 when everyone else was at $200 or more).

I'm sure it's not limited to Churchill and Pimlico, though. For the record, I don't think some recent Breeders' Cup numbers at Santa Anita were accurate either.

[razorback5]

His father was a mudder...
Don't forget his mother was a mudder..lol

[dballard125]

I hope it pours down in the Preakness, Nyquist will still win easier than he won in the KD. No one can challenge him in the Preakness.

Your tune on Nyquist has sure changed :cool:

[Rookies]

They'll be okay, we've got signs posted with your picture on them telling them to avoid you.


:lol: :lol:

[rastajenk]

From WeatherUnderground:

[PowerUpPaynter]

the infield is gonna be such a muddy shit show.

[tucker6]

From NWS Baltimore:

a general 1 to 2 inches looks likely given the synoptic setup. Guidance
has trended a bit slower with the whole progression, which means much
of Saturday may end up being a washout.

[Bennie]

Only a down pour will change my selections. Or should I say re-arrange them. And for the Abbott and Costello fans - don't forget a good mudder always eats it's fodder

[PowerUpPaynter]

the infield is gonna be such a muddy shit show.

correction if that Freddie Gray verdict comes down on Friday that will be nuts. Get ready to see some shit.

[depalma113]

correction if that Freddie Gray verdict comes down on Friday that will be nuts. Get ready to see some shit.

The verdict will not come down until Monday. They leaders of Baltimore are dumb, but they are not that stupid.

[djm1959]

poor track and we dont get a triple crown chance... just my opinion

[rastajenk]

I would not want to be a Pimlico exec this weekend. What if track conditions were such that, on any given other day, they'd cancel? What if a horse or two goes down early? Do you keep going? What a PR risk that would be. With Lasix regs, you couldn't run the race early and cancel the rest of the card that can be re-scheduled.

What if there's areal flooding and people can't get to the Old Hilltop? It could get ugly.

[dilanesp]

I would not want to be a Pimlico exec this weekend. What if track conditions were such that, on any given other day, they'd cancel? What if a horse or two goes down early? Do you keep going? What a PR risk that would be. With Lasix regs, you couldn't run the race early and cancel the rest of the card that can be re-scheduled.

What if there's areal flooding and people can't get to the Old Hilltop? It could get ugly.

If it's unsafe, they won't run, Preakness or no Preakness.

But most sloppy tracks are NOT unsafe.

[tucker6]

They will run the Preakness. It will be a rainy day, but it is getting less fearsome than it was a day or two ago.

[Grits]

They will run the Preakness. It will be a rainy day, but it is getting less fearsome than it was a day or two ago.

Tucker, when I take my next vacation, I'm calling you first.

You da one, weather wise. :)

[tucker6]

Tucker, when I take my next vacation, I'm calling you first.

You da one, weather wise. :)
I don't know about that. f2tornado probably has me beat.

[Thomas Roulston]

Guess Exaggerator's connections are now glad they didn't skip the Preakness - the way closers for second or third in the Derby nearly always do these days.

[tanner12oz]

the grandstand was evacuated last year and they ran..i hardly think a steady downpour of rain will affect anything beyond a muddy track

[CoxHub]

Here is the latest Wet Track Focused Podcast (http://www.coxhub.com/articles/can-nyquist-continue-streak-in-preakness) from CoxHub.com

[depalma113]

I would not want to be a Pimlico exec this weekend. What if track conditions were such that, on any given other day, they'd cancel? What if a horse or two goes down early? Do you keep going? What a PR risk that would be. With Lasix regs, you couldn't run the race early and cancel the rest of the card that can be re-scheduled.

What if there's areal flooding and people can't get to the Old Hilltop? It could get ugly.


They are calling for a half an inch of rain for the whole day. The track will be fine.

[rastajenk]

That's good.

I still wouldn't want to be a Pimlico exec this weekend.

[thespaah]

Forecast im looking at calls for 66 and rain all day for the Preakness. Advantage Exaggerator?
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BALTIMORE
1029 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SATURDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT

YUK!!!!
Looks like the folks in the infield will experience the horse racing version of Woodstock.
If I had tickets to the Preakness Day infield, I'd be inclined to sell them for whatever I could get and watch the thing on TV...Cold, wet and miserable is not on my bucket list.

[thespaah]

A weather geek like me I see. :D
Me too...http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA







.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Upper level trough tracks east across the Midwest states Friday
into Friday night. Surface low pressure develops over NC Friday
night reaching the northern outer banks during Saturday morning.
An east wind will develop across the CWA Friday night with
subtropical moisture converging ahead of the upper low. 100 POPs
spread east across the CWA through the night.

Bulk of rain from this event falls Friday night with widespread
moderate rain over the southern 2/3 of the CWA. Moderate rain
continues east of Interstate 95 Saturday morning. Wrap around NEly
flow keeps clouds and light rain across the area into Saturday
evening. Total QPF 0.5 inch along Mason-Dixon line to 1.5-2
inches over central VA with 0.75 to 1.25 inches between. Will need
to monitor eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains, but this
should be just a soaking rain with no flood hazards. The low
clouds keep high temperatures down, around 60 degrees.

North wind and clouds as upper trough enters the area Saturday
night. Rain should generally taper off through the night. Lows in
the upper 40s inland to low 50s near shore.

[thespaah]

I'll capitalize on these tix at a Cheaper price!!!!
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[thespaah]

All tracks do.
Why? To what end?
anyone can see if the attendance is fudged by looking at the total on track handle and then look back at the average per capita wagering on track during regular days. Then just apply that avg to the stakes race days and get a pretty good idea of the attendance figure.

[thespaah]

the infield is gonna be such a muddy shit show.
Like I said....Woodstock

[charm city whizz]

Anybody got a over under on attendance??

[Bennie]

It's funny you should make a reference to Woodstock because my Boss told me today his Daughter and about 10 other college students are going to Pimlico to attend the concerts they are having as part of the Preakness weekend festival.

[ronsmac]

It's a shame the Preakness isn't today. The weather is perfect.

[castaway01]

Anybody got a over under on attendance??

I'll set it at 125,000.

[Tom]

I'll set it at 125,000.

10, 15 of them will even be sober! :lol:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Attendance was about 132k last yr, according to the Blood Horse. I don't think it started to rain until later in the card (?) and it was warmer (?) last yr. Tomorrow's high is forecast at 59 degrees and steady rain from the start.

I'll set the over/under at 116,796.

[dilanesp]

Attendance was about 132k last yr, according to the Blood Horse. I don't think it started to rain until later in the card (?) and it was warmer (?) last yr. Tomorrow's high is forecast at 59 degrees and steady rain from the start.

I'll set the over/under at 116,796.

I'm convinced the number's going to be 116,797, so I think I need to bet the over.

[Saratoga_Mike]

116,797 would have been right, but I decided not to go.

[rastajenk]

I think about 50,000 of your friends and family are going to follow your lead.

[castaway01]

10, 15 of them will even be sober! :lol:

I'll take the under.

[tucker6]

The track only got 1/4 inch the last four hours, and the back edge of the rain shield is approaching. Probably off and on showers from now until race time. Not too bad, and the track shouldn't be a terrible mess later today if no downpours occur, which there shouldn't be.

[Aerocraft67]

Wunderground calls for another 0.1" of rain after 2:45. Without mud, there's little mystery in the race. Do we think it gets back to "good" by race time?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Good news on the weather ... maybe the crowds will show up like last yr after all, hope so

[PizzaCat]

Maryland Jockey Club is reporting record attendance for Preakness 141: 135,256. Last year's Preakness was the previous record at 131,680.

[castaway01]

I'm convinced the number's going to be 116,797, so I think I need to bet the over.

135,256 on the attendance (new record), so anyone who took the over is a winner.