R10 Belmont: G1 Man O' War

[Lemon Drop Husker]

1 Mile and 3/8ths on the turf. Love it.

:1: Morandi: Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. Not sure it gets much better other than a better horse. This one will surely take some money due to the connections. The two States races are tough to overlook though, and he is jumping up in class when he couldn't handle lesser. Pass.

:2: Money Multiplier: The 2nd Chad Brown entry gets Irad Ortiz on board. This one has at least showed some life, but is still hard to back. Not sure he'll like the distance either.

:3: Can'thelpbelieving: Steve Perry and Journey love this horse. While he is stepping up in class, he hits the Exacta like clockwork. 9 for 13 in the money. Biggest issue is his lone G3 entry in which he finished a distant 8th. Three straight runner-up finishes show him as being in form, so I can roll with this guy at 15/1 as having a shot. Especially a shot to hit the board.

:4: Closing Bell: Mott and Lezcano. Tough duo to kick, but I have to do it. I could possibly put a ticket together with this one on top, but he just doesn't seem likely. Always forwardly placed, so they have solid belief in this one. He just hasn't put it on the track....., yet.

:5: Go Around: Rolls in off of 2 wins, albeit against much lesser competition. His Graded Stakes entries leave a bit to be desired, but they weren't horrible either. If you are looking to wager on a Mott entry, this is the one you should be on.

:6: Up With The Birds: Hasn't won a race in a while, but he has also been running against some of the best. He should find this field more to his liking, but is still a tough wager on top. Graded Stakes veteran wouldn't surprise if he won, but looks to be exotics bound at best.

:7: Kaigun: His 2nditis hit yet again last out. A solid horse, but he just doesn't seem to hit the wire on top. Major contender, but can/will he win? Even with solid numbers, he just doesn't seem likely.

:8: Biz The Nurse: Not a complete toss as the 20/1 ML would suggest, but this one needs some help to finish in the money. Should be coming from deep, but just doesn't have the typical speed of foot you see from Euros on the turf.

:9: Wake Forest: 2nditis Kaigun beat me last out with this guy, and he was coming like a shot. The 3rd Chad Brown entry with Johnny V on board is the most serious contender in here, and should be the favorite.

SUMMARY: Not the greatest G1 field one has ever seen. In fact, it looks more like a $100K stakes race, and maybe a G3 at best. Either way, it is a group of horses that don't like to win much. Thus, I'll go hunting for some prices in both slots of the Exacta.

W: :5:
EX: :3::5::6: Box
Tri: :5::6:/:3::5::6:/:3::5::6::7::9:

[Prytanis]

Morandi is my pick to wire the field

Good luck to ALL!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

Morandi is my pick to wire the field

...

Interesting. I went over the race for a while and decided it was a good race but probably not a great field and thought this one probably could be the most interesting play if he hangs near the morning line. What interests me is the perception that he'll wire the field. I just watched that last race again and was thinking that from the rail it shouldn't be quite so hard to settle him back and let someone outside clear and give him cover. It sure seemed like they were hell bent on going the Euro-trip from the gitgo because I agree the way he broke and ran away from the gate he probably could have been on the pace in that spot. I just immediately dismissed the idea that they would even consider trying to be on the lead here after watching the replay a couple times, but assuming that someone like Go Around will be allowed to stroll off to the lead, it would still let him place this one in behind cover but probably without the wrestling or the congestion.

Anyway, I'm not too sure how this one gets played on the tote. It seems like these types have so much more emphasis placed on their limited North American form almost to the exclusion of the previous form. I understand that at some point you feel like the horse has established itself here and the proof is in the pudding, but this sucker has made over three-quarters of a million dollars in some solid races in France. Even when you look down and go oh well, here he got wrecked and only ran seventh - buddy here only gets beat three lengths going ten furlongs in a Group II. The horse can obviously run and even though this is a really neat, fun field, it isn't overflowing with Grade I talent. Kaigun is probably the leader in that category and he's borderline allergic to winning.

So, the two races for Morandi here in the U.S. - I don't really think I can hold them against him too much. Obviously the first one was a complete disaster and probably worthy of a line being drawn. The most recent is a race that I can see people having two diametrically opposed views. Some will think he was arguably the best, headstrong throughout then just stymied at every chance to find a hole in the lane and eventually coasted in. Some will say that very late when he did have a bit of a path, he never kicked and was coasted in for that reason. That the trouble he did have was a bit of a red herring because he fell off the bit once there was clear sailing and just likes cover that much.

I'm thinking more the former, especially stretching back out. Horses don't generally win races by seven and twelve lengths - Group I races at that - if they just can't stay interested without cover. I think he has one throw out of a race and one decent race that can be perceived as much better if you're a glass half-full sort of cat about it. I'm not all the way there, but if the price is going to be close to double-digits, I can probably get there.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

diametrically

Well done.

[RXB]

At 18/1 I had to bet Money Multiplier but the favourite got him. A good run for my money.