*No-Handicapping Belmont Part-2

[NorCalGreg]

--This is intended for those that want to find a couple horses quickly, put a little scratch in their pocket....and go on with life. :D

If only it were that easy. In my quest for the easy winners, I've come up with a new method. It always seems necessary to remind folks I'm not here to "prove" anything--and yes, as a matter of fact I do know this is an incredibly small sample.

Stuff like this interests me....and I know it holds interest for some of you.

We've discussed Bris Prime Power---and ways to actually profit from the ratings.

I looked at Aqueduct previously--and staying in NY, I'm now sampling the Belmont meet, from 4/29 through today.

I first looked at Top Prime--by min 2pt gap--trainer over 20% win. Sounds like that should screen out the riff-raff, and leave in the choice plays--right?

No sir---the results were so bad I just gave up--could see where it was going--nowhere. Keep in mind---Prime Power is still just a mechanical method--it's not neural, it doesn't "learn". So with that screen I supposed --was giving the most obvious, blatant, overbet favorite.

I tried just taking the highest odds of the top two rated. Was amazing at first--remember that couple days when CONGARETTE, STORMY SKY, & FLATTERYWILLGETYOU all scored at Big odds? Each of those was Prime's 2nd pick--thought maybe I was on to something, but nooooooooo. That streak stopped as quickly as it started.

Today's method: one of the biggest, most important facts I've ever learned in handicapping--is how important CLASS DROP is. If you are building a method---you can't go wrong starting right there--horses dropping in class.
Don't remember the exact number, but it's something like "Horses going UP in class win less than 25% of all races". That's ballpark anyway.

I took every top-rated Prime Power horse @ Belmont--and of those ONLY selected horses competing for a smaller purse today--than last race. If the horse ended up being scratched--I didn't go looking for the next in line--it was just a non-race for this method:

CORE PORTFOLIO $9.00
PORCH POUNDER X
GREEN MASK 2ND
NY CHROME $4.10
RENWICK $4.70
TAKREES X
LADY SHIPMAN $3.10
INSIDE STRAIGHT $2.60
DADZ LAUGH 2ND
SWEET ADVANCE $6.30
ECONOMIC MODEL $3.70
BUCKSKIN DOLL 2ND
SHOTGUN LOVE X
AWESOME GENT X
LIBERTY FUZE 3RD
TASREEH $4.00
ANCHOR DOWN $5.70
CELTIC CHAOS $10.40
CARDS OF STONE X
IRONICUS $3.80
BEAUTY IN THE PULPIT X
COMMUTE $2.90
HOT DUDETTE $5.20
DADS CAPS X
FIRESTAR $5.40
BIG EAST X

This looks great--so far.

26 SELECTIONS - 14 WINNERS

54% WIN--another 3 ran 2nd

Bet $52.00 - returned $70.90

AVG MUTUAL $5.06

ROI = $1.36

Will this hold up? No, not in the long run...but it's an interesting take, nonetheless.

Today @ Belmont there's a play:

6th ALTER BOY 6-1. Good looking stats, too---Improving, Dropping, Top Prime. One other looks horrible...3/5 shot GIFT BOX.....the only value with that one is if he DOESN'T HIT THE BOARD--then exotics should pay well.

Good luck all

-NCG

[Cice]

Gift Box is MTO.

[biggestal99]

--This is intended for those that want to find a couple horses quickly, put a little scratch in their pocket....and go on with life. :D

If only it were that easy. In my quest for the easy winners, I've come up with a new method. It always seems necessary to remind folks I'm not here to "prove" anything--and yes, as a matter of fact I do know this is an incredibly small sample.

Stuff like this interests me....and I know it holds interest for some of you.

We've discussed Bris Prime Power---and ways to actually profit from the ratings.

I looked at Aqueduct previously--and staying in NY, I'm now sampling the Belmont meet, from 4/29 through today.

I first looked at Top Prime--by min 2pt gap--trainer over 20% win. Sounds like that should screen out the riff-raff, and leave in the choice plays--right?

No sir---the results were so bad I just gave up--could see where it was going--nowhere. Keep in mind---Prime Power is still just a mechanical method--it's not neural, it doesn't "learn". So with that screen I supposed --was giving the most obvious, blatant, overbet favorite.

I tried just taking the highest odds of the top two rated. Was amazing at first--remember that couple days when CONGARETTE, STORMY SKY, & FLATTERYWILLGETYOU all scored at Big odds? Each of those was Prime's 2nd pick--thought maybe I was on to something, but nooooooooo. That streak stopped as quickly as it started.

Today's method: one of the biggest, most important facts I've ever learned in handicapping--is how important CLASS DROP is. If you are building a method---you can't go wrong starting right there--horses dropping in class.
Don't remember the exact number, but it's something like "Horses going UP in class win less than 25% of all races". That's ballpark anyway.

I took every top-rated Prime Power horse @ Belmont--and of those ONLY selected horses competing for a smaller purse today--than last race. If the horse ended up being scratched--I didn't go looking for the next in line--it was just a non-race for this method:

CORE PORTFOLIO $9.00
PORCH POUNDER X
GREEN MASK 2ND
NY CHROME $4.10
RENWICK $4.70
TAKREES X
LADY SHIPMAN $3.10
INSIDE STRAIGHT $2.60
DADZ LAUGH 2ND
SWEET ADVANCE $6.30
ECONOMIC MODEL $3.70
BUCKSKIN DOLL 2ND
SHOTGUN LOVE X
AWESOME GENT X
LIBERTY FUZE 3RD
TASREEH $4.00
ANCHOR DOWN $5.70
CELTIC CHAOS $10.40
CARDS OF STONE X
IRONICUS $3.80
BEAUTY IN THE PULPIT X
COMMUTE $2.90
HOT DUDETTE $5.20
DADS CAPS X
FIRESTAR $5.40
BIG EAST X

This looks great--so far.

26 SELECTIONS - 14 WINNERS

54% WIN--another 3 ran 2nd

Bet $52.00 - returned $70.90

AVG MUTUAL $5.06

ROI = $1.36

Will this hold up? No, not in the long run...but it's an interesting take, nonetheless.

Today @ Belmont there's a play:

6th ALTER BOY 6-1. Good looking stats, too---Improving, Dropping, Top Prime. One other looks horrible...3/5 shot GIFT BOX.....the only value with that one is if he DOESN'T HIT THE BOARD--then exotics should pay well.

Good luck all

-NCG

Well one of Cramers fav moves is the track switch/class drop.

I would say the majority of these horses had this angle.

Allan

[biggestal99]

This seems to me a good angle for the few opening weeks of any meet.

Allan

[Ocala Mike]

ALTAR BOY ran a nice 2nd - easy $31.80 exacta score.

[whodoyoulike]

--This is intended for those that want to find a couple horses quickly, put a little scratch in their pocket....and go on with life. :D

If only it were that easy. In my quest for the easy winners, I've come up with a new method. It always seems necessary to remind folks I'm not here to "prove" anything--and yes, as a matter of fact I do know this is an incredibly small sample. ...

No sir---the results were so bad I just gave up--could see where it was going--nowhere. Keep in mind---Prime Power is still just a mechanical method--it's not neural, it doesn't "learn". So with that screen I supposed --was giving the most obvious, blatant, overbet favorite.

I tried just taking the highest odds of the top two rated. Was amazing at first--remember that couple days when CONGARETTE, STORMY SKY, & FLATTERYWILLGETYOU all scored at Big odds? Each of those was Prime's 2nd pick--thought maybe I was on to something, but nooooooooo. That streak stopped as quickly as it started.

Today's method: one of the biggest, most important facts I've ever learned in handicapping--is how important CLASS DROP is. If you are building a method---you can't go wrong starting right there--horses dropping in class.
Don't remember the exact number, but it's something like "Horses going UP in class win less than 25% of all races". That's ballpark anyway.

I took every top-rated Prime Power horse @ Belmont--and of those ONLY selected horses competing for a smaller purse today--than last race. If the horse ended up being scratched--I didn't go looking for the next in line--it was just a non-race for this method: ...

Good luck all

-NCG

BPP is a good rating system and have noticed a lot of my top selections are also the top BPP. So, I do like it. The problem I have with it is that it's not a predictive algorithm. I think it's based strictly on past performances. I've previously mentioned on here that I was handicapping two races for the same horse on the same day, different tracks and different distances but the BPP was the exact same number for each race. The description for BPP indicated that distance plus a number of other variables were considered in it's calculation. I know this is only one example but, these situations don't come up very often to build a database. I guess, you just need to know when to apply it.

[NorCalGreg]

BPP is a good rating system and have noticed a lot of my top selections are also the top BPP. So, I do like it. The problem I have with it is that it's not a predictive algorithm. I think it's based strictly on past performances. I've previously mentioned on here that I was handicapping two races for the same horse on the same day, different tracks and different distances but the BPP was the exact same number for each race. The description for BPP indicated that distance plus a number of other variables were considered in it's calculation. I know this is only one example but, these situations don't come up very often to build a database. I guess, you just need to know when to apply it.

This is what I found surprising about this survey---Prime Power is, within itself a far better "handicapper" than you or I. It doesn't miss a thing--makes no errors in calcs, is unable to "fall in love" with a horse, like we humans do--emotion, intuition, past experience plays no part in today's rating. It is a brilliant handicapping software program.

That's also it's achilles heel.....it can't play angles, innuendos, remember a similar situation last year, and on and on. CLASS HANDICAPPING is built into the matrix....as are a ton of other known handicapping pinciples.

So why---when I further refine the rating with a yet another "class" variable----do the ratings improve? Allan may have hit on it--it may just be the new meet. But aren't these basically the exact same horses that ran Aqueduct? They never missed a start, for the most part--did they? Looks like they just vanned up and moved down the road.

That is why I asked myself "WILL THIS HOLD UP?"....and the answer is a resounding NO. It can't.

This is the reason I'm not a data-base guy. The fun is in the research--not the cold, sterile results.

I'll revisit this again---and if it is still holding up--I'll bet them, while keeping meticulous records. It'll be my luck it starts it's inevetible decline THAT VERY DAY.

all who posted or just took the time to read--

Thank you

-NCG

[Dave Schwartz]

NCG,

I like your approach.

Back in the late 90s while while on a business trip to Las Vegas, I found myself at the Orleans with no computer. I grabbed a Form and hit upon an interesting approach.

You know how people like to say, "All the winners were overlays" after the fact? So, I got this bright idea to look at each horse's last race, looking for horses that won and considered their odds in that race as the line for today's race providing they were coming back at the same class (or lower), same surface, same distance.

The idea was if a horse was (say) 2/1 in his last race and he's entered in similar or easier company today, then if I got 5/2 or 3/1 it would have to be an overlay.

I also included horses that almost won - finishing within a neck of the winner.

It was astounding how many horses qualified and performed well in the next race.


Dave

[mikesal57]

OMG.....

Look who's sucking up here........or was there a marriage overnight that I, NCG's attorney, wasn't invited to...

:confused:

[NorCalGreg]

Thank you Mike.....you're like a pit bull when you chomp down on someone's leg---you just don't let go :D

We can get back to talking horses now.......

That's really thinking outside the box, Dave...I like that.

Does anyone remember Derek Simon? He had a blog on Twinspires? He was also the type of guy who thought outside the box.

He came up with an idea of taking the Top Prime Power horse---and using the Morning Line as a baseline...demanded 2X the Morning Line, to insure himself of betting only a probable overlay.

So if the top choice was 2-1...he would theoretically bet @ 4-1 or better--5-2 he would have a bet @ 5-1 and so on.

There weren't a lot of plays, obviously...but he did a lengthy (2 or 3 months) test--and came up a solid winner.

I'm absolutely positive there are profits to be made using any ratings you know to be close to Prime Power in accuracy....and figuring out how to manipulate those figs for profit. The nuts and bolts handicapping is already done for us.

BTW.....DEREK SIMON...where the heck are you? If anyone knows if he's still publishing his angles and research somewhere---please let his fans know where to find him.

-NCG

[mikesal57]

OK...NCG.....as your attorney , I have advised you....

Kidding aside...


Why not play around with finding horses where Joe Public and most every software will not go....

Find winners where Prime ranks , say, 3RD or worse..?????

Yes, the percentage goes down but the payouts go up....

Think about it..

Mike

[Winger]

Thank you Mike.....you're like a pit bull when you chomp down on someone's leg---you just don't let go :D

We can get back to talking horses now.......

That's really thinking outside the box, Dave...I like that.

Does anyone remember Derek Simon? He had a blog on Twinspires? He was also the type of guy who thought outside the box.

He came up with an idea of taking the Top Prime Power horse---and using the Morning Line as a baseline...demanded 2X the Morning Line, to insure himself of betting only a probable overlay.

So if the top choice was 2-1...he would theoretically bet @ 4-1 or better--5-2 he would have a bet @ 5-1 and so on.

There weren't a lot of plays, obviously...but he did a lengthy (2 or 3 months) test--and came up a solid winner.

I'm absolutely positive there are profits to be made using any ratings you know to be close to Prime Power in accuracy....and figuring out how to manipulate those figs for profit. The nuts and bolts handicapping is already done for us.

BTW.....DEREK SIMON...where the heck are you? If anyone knows if he's still publishing his angles and research somewhere---please let his fans know where to find him.

-NCG


Derek Simon is writing for USRacing.com.

[Dave Schwartz]

NCG,

You can also friend him on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Youbet.DerekSimon?fref=ts

[NorCalGreg]

In case anyone missed it----yesterday's TOP PRIME/CLASS DROP play was

JET BLACK-2ND

STORM PURSUIT $13.60 $5.50 $4.80

Today's plays:

6TH-OFFERING PLAN 8/5

8TH-RECEPTA 5/2

9TH-ADVENTIST 4-1

Good luck ya'all

-NCG

[powerrun]

In case anyone missed it----yesterday's TOP PRIME/CLASS DROP play was

JET BLACK-2ND

STORM PURSUIT $13.60 $5.50 $4.80

Today's plays:

6TH-OFFERING PLAN 8/5

8TH-RECEPTA 5/2

9TH-ADVENTIST 4-1

Good luck ya'all

-NCG

Good Luck! Should be interesting to see how Adventist sizes up to Unified. I agree with Recepta possibility sitting on a great race.

[Light]

For top PP (gap unknown) + a class drop, I have some limited data from 4 different seasons of the Aqu inner meet which should be similar to any NYRA meet

246 races

$492 wagered

$449 win

$466 place

$473 show

The returns were pretty similar each year I checked. Maybe the 2 point gap requirement for the top PP will help the ROI but I doubt it.

[whodoyoulike]

NorCal, this is related to my response in post #6 and BPP.

Do you still have the BPPs for Simmstown at the Penn race which you had started in an earlier thread?

The race was cancelled twice if I recall correctly.

If you have this info readily available.

What was Simmstown's BPP for the two cancelled races and the one he eventually ran and won?

I think all of the races were for 6f, just curious if there were any changes since he hadn't run during that time. I would expect the BPPs would all be the same which would mean despite different competitors in the three races the horse's ratings weren't affected. If that was the case then BPP doesn't consider class changes either. Also, I'm curious about Simmstown's ACL ratings for each of those races.

Thanks. Again, I think one needs to understand when and how to use the BPP rating.

[Speed Figure]

NorCal, this is related to my response in post #6 and BPP.

Do you still have the BPPs for Simmstown at the Penn race which you had started in an earlier thread?

The race was cancelled twice if I recall correctly.

If you have this info readily available.

What was Simmstown's BPP for the two cancelled races and the one he eventually ran and won?

I think all of the races were for 6f, just curious if there were any changes since he hadn't run during that time. I would expect the BPPs would all be the same which would mean despite different competitors in the three races the horse's ratings weren't affected. If that was the case then BPP doesn't consider class changes either. Also, I'm curious about Simmstown's ACL ratings for each of those races.

Thanks. Again, I think one needs to understand when and how to use the BPP rating.On 2-11-16 his BPP was 120.9, on 2-17-16 his BPP was 121.1, I seem to have misplaced the 2-20 file when he won.

[NorCalGreg]

For top PP (gap unknown) + a class drop, I have some limited data from 4 different seasons of the Aqu inner meet which should be similar to any NYRA meet

246 races

$492 wagered

$449 win

$466 place

$473 show

The returns were pretty similar each year I checked. Maybe the 2 point gap requirement for the top PP will help the ROI but I doubt it.

Just curious how you handled ties at the top--with both dropping? I just went with the first horse listed--ties be damned.

Your results are right in line with what I assumed, light--a small loss overall.

So what's needed is further refinement--I think I may have an idea how. A lot of those top-prime-but-dropping horses, are "fire-sale" types...one glance at EPS will tell the tale.
If the top selection avgs 40K per start...and the rest avg 8k per start--the top guy has no business being there-- those are the worst bets in horseracing. I call 'em "sucker bets" as they are usually even money or less.

Amazing how often they run second--just on back-class alone.

Surprising the show slot outdid the win and place.

Thanks for the info.

[NorCalGreg]

On 2-11-16 his BPP was 120.9, on 2-17-16 his BPP was 121.1, I seem to have misplaced the 2-20 file when he won.

As Speedy's info shows--they were a little different. There were almost the same horses in all three races entered--with just enough different horses to acct for the slight change in BPP.
I found Simmstown by his sub .24 final quarter--so never kept the bris info.

You bring up an interesting point, whodo--one I hadn't even thought of......
the ratings being affected by the dynamics of the entries.

[NorCalGreg]

Just a quick update on the TOP PRIME/ CLASS DROP No handicapping
Belmont method:

Last week ending 5/15--more of the same, with STORM PURSUIT'S surprise $13 win. The method continued with over 50% Win--75% Place & positive ROI

-For the week ending today 5/22:
-6 winners out of 12 plays= 50%
-Avg mutual took a dive though = $3.43
-Bet $24 Returned $20.60 for a loss for the week
-3 others ran 2nd--making it 9 of 12 to continue that
75% streak.
-Overall still profitable from back to late AQ.

What's probably most important--these "Prime-Droppers" are winning at a 50% clip that's held up for 6 or 7 weeks.

Exotics players especially take note....avg 2-4 plays a day--leave out of your horizontals at your own peril.

-NCG