Colorado_Mike
05-10-2016, 06:19 PM
The point of me posting this is nothing more then me trying something new. I didn't edit the post, mostly due to not knowing if people will read it. I simply jotted down some thoughts in Race 2 at Belmont May 11th. This by far is the greatest races of races but it kicks off the pick 4 and maybe we can get converse about a horse to single or a price to play or etc, I'm leaning with the 4 but would love to see what others think. Sorry if it's long but I got really into it.
2nd Race
3 year olds and up, One mile Clm 16k N2L
1horse interior secretary
Dropping in from 62k, ran last race at big odds. Life 1/13, 0/3 at distance, hit board 2/8 on fast track, 0/4 racing at belmont. Contessa at .08 percent in 2016, Franco at 14, j/t combo is .10. running same distance as race, going from turf to dirt though which trainer is at .18 horse race 4 of 5 last race races at md 25k level winning once. the distance it won at was 7furlongs with a 56 beer. sat off pace and closed nicely. horse had a comment last race saying tired. this is the sixth race this horse has this cycle. thinking it is done and just needs a break. i think this is a desperate attempt from owner/trainer trying to make some money. the horse was over a 100k purchase and has only made 52k in life. not good on 14 races. They would be lucky to get someone to claim this horse for 16k.
2 horse Big East
You know I’m a sucker for a first time gelding horse. This 3 year old has ran six races winning 1 and finishing 2nd three times. At the distance horse is 1 win 2 places in 5 races. So the horse clearly likes the distance. Looking at bruce levies trainer stats they seem ok with everything hanging around 20 percent. not one statistic stands out though. Carmouche is a favorite of mine on mid to long shots, 17 percent for year isn’t bad with a t/j combo at 13 percent for belmont. horse has been running at md 25k level with last race over six weeks ago. I like the consistency here with the horse doing well the last 4 races. Beyer numbers are consistent. distance seems right for horse. what is the issue. putting the horse in for 16k makes think the owner and trainer aren’t sure about it. i like the gelding angle though and if the horse looks ok on the track I think 10-1 is a great price. Id even let it slip down a little. Consider for a win, place and show bet depending on how horse looks on track. would consider using in double, pick 3, pick 4 and 5 play.
3 horse Jacob’s Here
5 year old has ran 17 races, 9 of the races have been at this distance with one place and one show. horse has 3 races at belmont hitting 2nd once and 3rd once. Trainer is at 10 percent clip for 16, low sample of 31 though. jockey is at .09 percent in 134 mounts. no j/t combo noted. last two race were at a mile in the 14n2l level. so this race isn’t really much of a difference. . last race was an akward start, horse pretty much hung out in the back making no sort of drive home to finish. shows nothing. race before at same distance horse faded. just ran a mile on the slop for practice, good 10 seconds behind winning time of last 14k race winner.
4 horse Swivel
4 year old gelding has one win in 11 races for his career. At this distance horse has 3 times, hitting a 3rd once and nothing else. trainer has a 15 percent clip in 53 races. Alvardo is at 16 percent in 250 mounts. j/t combo is 0 percent in six tries at belmont . last three races at 14000 n2l level. beer improvement each race. horse did the same thing each race and faded at end. tends last race went to front but could get lead and ended up driving only to be out kicked. no great trainer statistics standout. i do like though the last time horse ran was april 13th, comes back to work the 30th in 51 seconds and then 3 furlongs at 37 seconds a couple of weeks later. it makes me think the horse has something in the take still even though it has ran six races in 5 months
5 horse Baldonnel
Another entry from Contessa. This one looks a little more hopeful. 14 life starts, one win, one place and 2 shows. at the distance 2 starts with one show. trainer is at .08 percent and jockey is at -07 percent for 2016. horse has raced at belmont once, finishing 3rd in that race. last race was a few weeks ago on the turf going a mile and sixteenth. didn’t showing anything but trip was rough. continuing to drop in class, 2 races ago was at 50k allowance level, then last race with new trainer was at 25nl2 but didn’t fire. variance numbers are good though for this crop 73-09 last race. last two beyers were horrible but 3 and 4 back they were good enough to win this distance. horse seems comfy at this distance bu shit it has won in almost two years. only hitting board twice in last 7 races. this horse is dropping pretty big and has been racing in higher class. will that be enough though for it? 12-1 seems like the right price but unless he looks amazing on the track I have to pass.
6 Saratoga Sight
300k horse out of tapir and now racing for nothing. just begging someone to claim this horse. pletcher having a horse in this low level of race shows pure desperation. You know he is a good trainer so you don’t need to look at his stats. Cancel get the mount which is fine with me. he is capable. j/t is .29 with a low sample. horse hasn’t ran at belmont and is 2/2 hitting board at the distance. simply put last race looks good enough for this horse to win this race. questioning though why put it at such a low level other then wanting it to get claimed so you can move on from it. recent work was ok and at 7-2 I would maybe bet it two win if he looks good on track. The thing is though you know it will be bet down. wait and see game
7 Rare Eagle
making a drop from 40k to 14k nl3. trainer at 13 percent, jock at .06. 4 races at distance 1 2nd and 2 3rd. 3 for 5 at belmont. horses like distance and track. 201 ml and should be. beyers are consistent and higher then other in race with only 6 being comparable. tough betting a horse with one win and 16 races to his belt. cheap horse though has done well for owner. no value at win or place bet. would have to include if exotics and pick 3, pick 4 and pick 5
8 Texas Tea
Another Pletcher horse and this one I already like more. 90 k horse is a 3 year old lightly raced 1 win and 1 2nd in 5 races. 4 of 5 career races have been at this distance. jockey is solid, j/t combo 19 percent. beyers maybe not as high as others but i don’t think that would be enough to scare me off. one work since last race, would like to have seen 2. faded last out and race before that was really bad. adding blinks to horse, maybe that would help a lot. just wonder if something is wrong with horse after last horrible races. plus to be at this level once again with a pricy horse why drop it so low other then wanting to get rid of it.
2nd Race
3 year olds and up, One mile Clm 16k N2L
1horse interior secretary
Dropping in from 62k, ran last race at big odds. Life 1/13, 0/3 at distance, hit board 2/8 on fast track, 0/4 racing at belmont. Contessa at .08 percent in 2016, Franco at 14, j/t combo is .10. running same distance as race, going from turf to dirt though which trainer is at .18 horse race 4 of 5 last race races at md 25k level winning once. the distance it won at was 7furlongs with a 56 beer. sat off pace and closed nicely. horse had a comment last race saying tired. this is the sixth race this horse has this cycle. thinking it is done and just needs a break. i think this is a desperate attempt from owner/trainer trying to make some money. the horse was over a 100k purchase and has only made 52k in life. not good on 14 races. They would be lucky to get someone to claim this horse for 16k.
2 horse Big East
You know I’m a sucker for a first time gelding horse. This 3 year old has ran six races winning 1 and finishing 2nd three times. At the distance horse is 1 win 2 places in 5 races. So the horse clearly likes the distance. Looking at bruce levies trainer stats they seem ok with everything hanging around 20 percent. not one statistic stands out though. Carmouche is a favorite of mine on mid to long shots, 17 percent for year isn’t bad with a t/j combo at 13 percent for belmont. horse has been running at md 25k level with last race over six weeks ago. I like the consistency here with the horse doing well the last 4 races. Beyer numbers are consistent. distance seems right for horse. what is the issue. putting the horse in for 16k makes think the owner and trainer aren’t sure about it. i like the gelding angle though and if the horse looks ok on the track I think 10-1 is a great price. Id even let it slip down a little. Consider for a win, place and show bet depending on how horse looks on track. would consider using in double, pick 3, pick 4 and 5 play.
3 horse Jacob’s Here
5 year old has ran 17 races, 9 of the races have been at this distance with one place and one show. horse has 3 races at belmont hitting 2nd once and 3rd once. Trainer is at 10 percent clip for 16, low sample of 31 though. jockey is at .09 percent in 134 mounts. no j/t combo noted. last two race were at a mile in the 14n2l level. so this race isn’t really much of a difference. . last race was an akward start, horse pretty much hung out in the back making no sort of drive home to finish. shows nothing. race before at same distance horse faded. just ran a mile on the slop for practice, good 10 seconds behind winning time of last 14k race winner.
4 horse Swivel
4 year old gelding has one win in 11 races for his career. At this distance horse has 3 times, hitting a 3rd once and nothing else. trainer has a 15 percent clip in 53 races. Alvardo is at 16 percent in 250 mounts. j/t combo is 0 percent in six tries at belmont . last three races at 14000 n2l level. beer improvement each race. horse did the same thing each race and faded at end. tends last race went to front but could get lead and ended up driving only to be out kicked. no great trainer statistics standout. i do like though the last time horse ran was april 13th, comes back to work the 30th in 51 seconds and then 3 furlongs at 37 seconds a couple of weeks later. it makes me think the horse has something in the take still even though it has ran six races in 5 months
5 horse Baldonnel
Another entry from Contessa. This one looks a little more hopeful. 14 life starts, one win, one place and 2 shows. at the distance 2 starts with one show. trainer is at .08 percent and jockey is at -07 percent for 2016. horse has raced at belmont once, finishing 3rd in that race. last race was a few weeks ago on the turf going a mile and sixteenth. didn’t showing anything but trip was rough. continuing to drop in class, 2 races ago was at 50k allowance level, then last race with new trainer was at 25nl2 but didn’t fire. variance numbers are good though for this crop 73-09 last race. last two beyers were horrible but 3 and 4 back they were good enough to win this distance. horse seems comfy at this distance bu shit it has won in almost two years. only hitting board twice in last 7 races. this horse is dropping pretty big and has been racing in higher class. will that be enough though for it? 12-1 seems like the right price but unless he looks amazing on the track I have to pass.
6 Saratoga Sight
300k horse out of tapir and now racing for nothing. just begging someone to claim this horse. pletcher having a horse in this low level of race shows pure desperation. You know he is a good trainer so you don’t need to look at his stats. Cancel get the mount which is fine with me. he is capable. j/t is .29 with a low sample. horse hasn’t ran at belmont and is 2/2 hitting board at the distance. simply put last race looks good enough for this horse to win this race. questioning though why put it at such a low level other then wanting it to get claimed so you can move on from it. recent work was ok and at 7-2 I would maybe bet it two win if he looks good on track. The thing is though you know it will be bet down. wait and see game
7 Rare Eagle
making a drop from 40k to 14k nl3. trainer at 13 percent, jock at .06. 4 races at distance 1 2nd and 2 3rd. 3 for 5 at belmont. horses like distance and track. 201 ml and should be. beyers are consistent and higher then other in race with only 6 being comparable. tough betting a horse with one win and 16 races to his belt. cheap horse though has done well for owner. no value at win or place bet. would have to include if exotics and pick 3, pick 4 and pick 5
8 Texas Tea
Another Pletcher horse and this one I already like more. 90 k horse is a 3 year old lightly raced 1 win and 1 2nd in 5 races. 4 of 5 career races have been at this distance. jockey is solid, j/t combo 19 percent. beyers maybe not as high as others but i don’t think that would be enough to scare me off. one work since last race, would like to have seen 2. faded last out and race before that was really bad. adding blinks to horse, maybe that would help a lot. just wonder if something is wrong with horse after last horrible races. plus to be at this level once again with a pricy horse why drop it so low other then wanting to get rid of it.