William Scott's "Form Factors"

[PressThePace]

I read Scott's "Investing at the Racetrack" some 30 years ago while in college. While the book didn't put a lot of money in my pocket, I found some of the concepts useful. I was going through an old thread recently and someone was talking about how outdated the form rules were. Does anyone remember what the form factors were exactly?

[Light]

1) Up close (less than 3 lengths behind the leader) at 2 calls in last race

2) Up close (less than 3 lengths behind the leader) at 1 call in last race plus a 20% class drop

3) A gain of 5 in running line within contention.

Combination of lengths and horse placement is acceptable. "Within contention" means must be within 5 3/4 lengths of the leader at completion of said gain.

4) A gain of 3 from one call to the next plus a drop in class. Combination of lengths and horse placement is acceptable. Must be within 6 lengths of the leader at completion of said gain.

5) A finish of second

6) Even race. Not gaining or losing more than 2 lengths between any 2 successive calls. Must never be more than 6 lengths behind the leader.


But then he has exceptions to these rules such as a horse showing "declining form" (defined as last race noticeably worse than 2 back at same class/distance) or dropping in class by 40% or more.

He has some good points but to use his rules literally will probably drive you crazy. Especially the splitting hairs of 20%, 40%. However I find his "declining form" definition (not the 40% one) very relevant to many sucker horses today.

[PressThePace]

1) Up close (less than 3 lengths behind the leader) at 2 calls in last race

2) Up close (less than 3 lengths behind the leader) at 1 call in last race plus a 20% class drop

3) A gain of 5 in running line within contention.

Combination of lengths and horse placement is acceptable. "Within contention" means must be within 5 3/4 lengths of the leader at completion of said gain.

4) A gain of 3 from one call to the next plus a drop in class. Combination of lengths and horse placement is acceptable. Must be within 6 lengths of the leader at completion of said gain.

5) A finish of second

6) Even race. Not gaining or losing more than 2 lengths between any 2 successive calls. Must never be more than 6 lengths behind the leader.


But then he has exceptions to these rules such as a horse showing "declining form" (defined as last race noticeably worse than 2 back at same class/distance) or dropping in class by 40% or more.

He has some good points but to use his rules literally will probably drive you crazy. Especially the splitting hairs of 20%, 40%. However I find his "declining form" definition (not the 40% one) very relevant to many sucker horses today.

Thanks Light!

I'm trying to look at a few "form" details when handicapping older claimers. Most of Scott's "factors" are relevant, but the line is just too thin in some instances.