Swarm Intelligence Nails Kentucky Derby Superfecta, turns $20 into $11,000

[DeltaLover]

I found the following article hilarious:

http://unu.ai/unu-superfecta-11k/

During an initial 10-minute session, the group used UNU to answer questions as a unified Swarm Intelligence, narrowing the field of 20 horses down to four winners. The swarm was then asked to order the four winners into Win, Place, Show, and Fourth. Then, a week later the Kentucky Derby announced the post positions of the horses, which impacts the potential outcome. So, the Swarm Intelligence was convened again, and asked if any changes should be made. One of the four picks was replaced by an alternate. This process took another 10 minutes .......

[whodoyoulike]

I don't understand why you would find this hilarious. I don't understand it myself. I think Dave Schwartz mentioned in another thread of dabbling or looking into it and possibly applying it within his software program.

It sounds like if you wanted to come up with something similar without utilizing anonymous inputs, you would need an algorithm which cycles thru a number of iterations.

Is the payout amount which you're finding hilarious?

[therussmeister]

The superfecta came in the favorite over the second favourite over the third favourite over the fourth favourite. So you hardly needed their twenty minutes of swarm intelligence. How often would this method pick a winning super that was different than the crowd's wisdom.

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks, I was looking at it as a concept approach. Again, I don't understand it.

[lansdale]

I found the following article hilarious:

http://unu.ai/unu-superfecta-11k/

During an initial 10-minute session, the group used UNU to answer questions as a unified Swarm Intelligence, narrowing the field of 20 horses down to four winners. The swarm was then asked to order the four winners into Win, Place, Show, and Fourth. Then, a week later the Kentucky Derby announced the post positions of the horses, which impacts the potential outcome. So, the Swarm Intelligence was convened again, and asked if any changes should be made. One of the four picks was replaced by an alternate. This process took another 10 minutes .......


Conveniently ignores the fact that the paramutuel market is a 'swarm', and also correctly picked the top four horses in order of finish for very disappointing exotics payouts. See what happens if you try this in every race! For those unfamiliar with the notion of the 'wisdom of crowds', though, it illustrates why it's so difficult for 99% of bettors to beat this particular 'swarm'.

[EMD4ME]

I'm going to take my 401K and other assets and place them with these guys. They have solved the eternal puzzle.

Hope I don't have to pay too much taxes on all my winnings :rolleyes:

[davew]

The superfecta came in the favorite over the second favourite over the third favourite over the fourth favourite. So you hardly needed their twenty minutes of swarm intelligence. How often would this method pick a winning super that was different than the crowd's wisdom.

Do you mean you can win superfectas by ordering by odds and betting a straight ticket?

[therussmeister]

Do you mean you can win superfectas by ordering by odds and betting a straight ticket?
In this case yes, but the rare times they do come in like that they usually pay $25 or less.

[Stillriledup]

they were so smart that they knew the 5th place finisher would be exploding with run in the middle of the track and just miss 3rd and 4th by one step, they really measured that off! :D

[tanner12oz]

they were so smart that they knew the 5th place finisher would be exploding with run in the middle of the track and just miss 3rd and 4th by one step, they really measured that off! :D

ugh dont remind me

[Tom]

Tony Black gave it out on Byk's show last week.

[Stillriledup]

ugh dont remind me

sorry. Great pick, wait for the Belmont. ;)

[Arapola]

Conveniently ignores the fact that the paramutuel market is a 'swarm', and also correctly picked the top four horses in order of finish for very disappointing exotics payouts. See what happens if you try this in every race! For those unfamiliar with the notion of the 'wisdom of crowds', though, it illustrates why it's so difficult for 99% of bettors to beat this particular 'swarm'.
What he said!

[Stillriledup]

Conveniently ignores the fact that the paramutuel market is a 'swarm', and also correctly picked the top four horses in order of finish for very disappointing exotics payouts. See what happens if you try this in every race! For those unfamiliar with the notion of the 'wisdom of crowds', though, it illustrates why it's so difficult for 99% of bettors to beat this particular 'swarm'.

It's almost impossible to believe the tri paid what it paid in a race with 6840 combinations as well as the favorite being 'beatable' according to people who possess speed figures, there wasn't really a horse in there w zero shot, it's not like the winner was running beyers in the 110 range while everyone else was running 90s.