Nyquist- Race spacing

[Mc990]

Horse had perfect spacing coming into the Derby (albeit with mediocre races). Now I think the question becomes how much does he move backwards off that effort. The 5-6 weeks rest coming into the Derby is proving to be optimal but the downside of that is these Derby winners are obligated to run back in 2 weeks...

Since 2006 when Matz broke the ridiculous assertion that you couldn't win the Derby off 5 weeks, here are the horses who've won off 5-6 weeks

Barbaro, BB, MTB, AK, Orb. All technically bounced in Baltimore...

Now you still need someone to step up and run a halfway decent race to beat him but he sure looks vurnerable

[PowerUpPaynter]

Horse had perfect spacing coming into the Derby (albeit with mediocre races). Now I think the question becomes how much does he move backwards off that effort. The 5-6 weeks rest coming into the Derby is proving to be optimal but the downside of that is these Derby winners are obligated to run back in 2 weeks...

Since 2006 when Matz broke the ridiculous assertion that you couldn't win the Derby off 5 weeks, here are the horses who've won off 5-6 weeks

Barbaro, BB, MTB, AK, Orb. All technically bounced in Baltimore...

Now you still need someone to step up and run a halfway decent race to beat him but he sure looks vurnerable


I dont know about all that. Barbaro, the poor guy broke his leg ( may he rest in peace), Big Brown romped in the Preakness, Mine That Bird was a longshot winner of the Derby and lost to super philly Rachel Alexandra, Animal Kingdom and Orb were a cut below.

[Mc990]

I dont know about all that. Barbaro, the poor guy broke his leg ( may he rest in peace), Big Brown romped in the Preakness, Mine That Bird was a longshot winner of the Derby and lost to super philly Rachel Alexandra, Animal Kingdom and Orb were a cut below.

Objectively speaking, they all bounced... Barbaro obviously the hardest. The derby gutted him.

I know big brown looked good winning the Preakness but he bounced on every figure out there.

Subjectively, I wouldn't say AK was a cut below any horse.

Do you think Nyquist can bring a similar or better effort in 2 weeks?

[tucker6]

Objectively speaking, they all bounced... Barbaro obviously the hardest. The derby gutted him.

It's hard to take the subject seriously if that is your take on Barbaro's Preakness. Stepping wrong coming out of the gate and breaking down 50 yards from the start hardly qualifies as being gutted and bouncing. Holy mackerel man.

[SecretAgentMan]

Nyquist ran back after 19 days rest & won as a 2 year old. I think he's good enough to won the Preakness, but also, the competition is lousy this year.

[Mc990]

It's hard to take the subject seriously if that is your take on Barbaro's Preakness. Stepping wrong coming out of the gate and breaking down 50 yards from the start hardly qualifies as being gutted and bouncing. Holy mackerel man.

Barbaro is actually the poster boy for my argument...

His derby was a "big" effort... Big efforts stress racehorses... Because of this, racehorses need proper rest... 2 weeks is not proper rest... When racehorses run back too quickly after big efforts, they are more susceptible to injury...

Make sense or should I go slower??

[Mc990]

Nyquist ran back after 19 days rest & won as a 2 year old. I think he's good enough to won the Preakness, but also, the competition is lousy this year.

True but that's also the only time he's gone backwards on figures

[PowerUpPaynter]

Barbaro is actually the poster boy for my argument...

His derby was a "big" effort... Big efforts stress racehorses... Because of this, racehorses need proper rest... 2 weeks is not proper rest... When racehorses run back too quickly after big efforts, they are more susceptible to injury...

Make sense or should I go slower??


With all due respect sir. That is crazy talk. Really out there and off base.

[Mc990]

With all due respect sir. That is crazy talk. Really out there and off base.

I'm more than willing to listen to other's opinions. I made 5 points in the middle paragraph... Which one is off base? Or are all of them?

It's my opinion that race spacing matters. People in this game much smarter than you and I believe it matters. The widespread use of lasix dictates it matters

[PowerUpPaynter]

I'm more than willing to listen to other's opinions. I made 5 points in the middle paragraph... Which one is off base? Or are all of them?

It's my opinion that race spacing matters. People in this game much smarter than you and I believe it matters. The widespread use of lasix dictates it matters


i was just talking about your preposterous remarks about Barbaro's injury

[yankeelpn]

Dont forget Barbaro broke out of the starting gate pre race and had to be reloaded. Dont know if that injured him or not??

[098poi]

Saying Barbaro "bounced" because the Derby gutted him is complete fantasy. You should probably remove him from your argument.

[PaceAdvantage]

Objectively speaking, they all bounced... Barbaro obviously the hardest. The derby gutted him.This Barbaro comment...anything BUT objective.... :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Barbaro is actually the poster boy for my argument...

His derby was a "big" effort... Big efforts stress racehorses... Because of this, racehorses need proper rest... 2 weeks is not proper rest... When racehorses run back too quickly after big efforts, they are more susceptible to injury...

Make sense or should I go slower??The very fact that you believe a horse needs more than TWO WEEKS OFF after running in a race for two minutes tells me all I need to know.

A lot of people have drunk the training Kool Aid over the years...doesn't mean it's correct.

Horses still break down, don't they? Not every horse that breaks down is trained by Lukas you know...

[PaceAdvantage]

Mc's next question will likely be "Have you ever even stepped foot inside a barn?" "Have you ever even stood next to a racehorse?"

That's where these arguments usually end up.

[Mc990]

Mc's next question will likely be "Have you ever even stepped foot inside a barn?" "Have you ever even stood next to a racehorse?"

That's where these arguments usually end up.

No, my next question will be, do you not believe horses need time between races? If the horse ran every day as opposed to every 4 weeks would the time between races have no affect on performance?

Obviously horses have run back on a weeks rest and done well, obviously horses have had ample rest and run poorly... My point of view is that this is a game of percentages and we've already seen this horse move backwards on 19 days rest. Coincidence? Maybe? At odds on though, I don't think he's a good bet.

Regarding the Barbaro Preakness, yes, he technically bounced the hardest because he didn't finish the race. No subjectivity there. Again, it's a game of percentages and numbers and the numbers don't lie.

How about instead of blindly bashing my opinion, somebody actually tells me the names of horses who have run a career top off 5-6 weeks rest into the derby and not gone backwards in the Preakness.

Here's the list of the ones who have gone backwards

Firing line
Orb
Went the day well
Animal kingdom
Mine that bird
Big brown
Hard spun
Barbaro

[PowerUpPaynter]

Oh my god Barbaro did not bounce he broke his leg man. 2 weeks 5 weeks 20 weeks dont matter. Let it go.

[Mc990]

Oh my god Barbaro did not bounce he broke his leg man. 2 weeks 5 weeks 20 weeks dont matter. Let it go.

Wow. Again, you're missing the point. This is not an argument about Barbaro. Still waiting on the names of those horses...

[AndyC]

Horse had perfect spacing coming into the Derby (albeit with mediocre races). Now I think the question becomes how much does he move backwards off that effort. The 5-6 weeks rest coming into the Derby is proving to be optimal but the downside of that is these Derby winners are obligated to run back in 2 weeks...

Since 2006 when Matz broke the ridiculous assertion that you couldn't win the Derby off 5 weeks, here are the horses who've won off 5-6 weeks

Barbaro, BB, MTB, AK, Orb. All technically bounced in Baltimore...

Now you still need someone to step up and run a halfway decent race to beat him but he sure looks vurnerable


So in your view all horses are the same. What determines perfect spacing for Nyquist? Does the height, weight, conformation, or trainer matter at all? Did you buy-in to Jerry Brown's analysis when he said that Nyquist was just an early developer with figures that weren't the highest in the race?

I used TG for a long time and respect JB as a handicapper but I quickly learned that projecting 3yos to bounce was extremely difficult to do.

[clocker7]

I think that the argument against racing only two weeks after a distance race is a reasonable one. C'mon, if it weren't for the TC incentive for the KD winner--thus guaranteeing the prestige of the Preakness that otherwise likely wouldn't exist--I doubt that many trainers would continue on.

Give me a list of recent top horses--of any age, anywhere throughout the year--who raced after running in a distance race 2 or even 3 weeks prior. Then we can talk.

[Tom]

Barbaro is actually the poster boy for my argument...

His derby was a "big" effort... Big efforts stress racehorses... Because of this, racehorses need proper rest... 2 weeks is not proper rest... When racehorses run back too quickly after big efforts, they are more susceptible to injury...

Make sense or should I go slower??

No matter how slow you go, this makes n......o.......s......e......n.....s.....e.
His accident had zero to do with his Derby performance.

Nyquist is likely to bounce...just like Big Brown did.

[clocker7]

No matter how slow you go, this makes n......o.......s......e......n.....s.....e.
His accident had zero to do with his Derby performance.

Nyquist is likely to bounce...just like Big Brown did.
I agree. I think that the early KD pace, combined with a demanding stretch run, will take a few ticks off of his overall abilities. Whether that is enough to fail is in question, but if he's 3-5 some exotics without him in the top spot represent better value here than last week.

[clocker7]

My only caveat in this race is this: everything I've read has O'Neill not having Nyquist at his peak for the KD. True or not, I don't know.

But that was the claim for Billy Turner and Seattle Slew, too. Supposedly, Slew was not sharp and after his dwell, he really had to put out to win the KD.

Yet, he was able to win while undergoing a speed duel 2 weeks later. Was it due to being in better shape at Pim, as opposed to CD? pffft

For me, that is the only unknowable intangible that muddies up this Preakness. Maybe Nyquist might be sharper. But strategically betting otherwise is in order, imo.

[tucker6]

My only caveat in this race is this: everything I've read has O'Neill not having Nyquist at his peak for the KD. True or not, I don't know.

But that was the claim for Billy Turner and Seattle Slew, too. Supposedly, Slew was not sharp and after his dwell, he really had to put out to win the KD.

Yet, he was able to win while undergoing a speed duel 2 weeks later. Was it due to being in better shape at Pim, as opposed to CD? pffft

For me, that is the only unknowable intangible that muddies up this Preakness. Maybe Nyquist might be sharper. But strategically betting otherwise is in order, imo.
Not directed at you, but does the bolded really matter though? Nyquist will have a value that you won't be able to bet except in exotics. Why put a lot of thought into Nyquist except as it relates to how he may shape the race? Shouldn't we concentrate on the rest of the horses coming into Pimlico?

[RXB]

In the past 40 runnings of the Preakness, 22 have featured Ky Derby winners that ran from the front half of the field throughout the Derby.

13 winners, 1 second, 3 thirds from those 22. And 10 of the past 12 that fit the description have won. Bet against Nyquist at your own peril as these horses do not usually bounce. It is the deeper closers who've won the Derby that have typically lost in the Preakness.

[clocker7]

Not directed at you, but does the bolded really matter though? Nyquist will have a value that you won't be able to bet except in exotics. Why put a lot of thought into Nyquist except as it relates to how he may shape the race? Shouldn't we concentrate on the rest of the horses coming into Pimlico?
I guess that my position is: betting against Nyquist in exotics is worthy (because of how the KD materialized), yet it is not a spot in which to spend a ton doing so. The information that he was not trained to peak at CD is enough to create reasonable doubt. Yet, I think that there will be enough value to negate a complete pass. Fun money thrown against him might make for a really great day.

[Mc990]

So in your view all horses are the same. What determines perfect spacing for Nyquist? Does the height, weight, conformation, or trainer matter at all? Did you buy-in to Jerry Brown's analysis when he said that Nyquist was just an early developer with figures that weren't the highest in the race?

I used TG for a long time and respect JB as a handicapper but I quickly learned that projecting 3yos to bounce was extremely difficult to do.

Sure there are many variables but the way I look at it is, the percentages say his prep schedule was optimal... This in turn may have flattered him in the derby. Now he's running back (most likely only because he won the derby) and the percentages now say the 2 weeks is less than optimal.

He doesn't have to bounce but I can't accept that he's any better than 2-1 to win this race... and he will certainly be lower than that.

[RXB]

Sure there are many variables but the way I look at it is, the percentages say his prep schedule was optimal... This in turn may have flattered him in the derby. Now he's running back (most likely only because he won the derby) and the percentages now say the 2 weeks is less than optimal.

He doesn't have to bounce but I can't accept that he's any better than 2-1 to win this race... and he will certainly be lower than that.

If the percentages are "less than optimal" why have 10 of the last 12 tactical speed Ky Derby victors repeated as winners in the Preakness?

The best early-season 3YO's run in the Derby. Preakness runners that didn't race in the Derby are usually outclassed. And the other Preakness runners coming from the Derby are returning in 14 days, too-- so there's no advantage of a bit more time between races for them compared to the winner.

[Mc990]

If the percentages are "less than optimal" why have 10 of the last 12 tactical speed Ky Derby victors repeated as winners in the Preakness?

The best early-season 3YO's run in the Derby. Preakness runners that didn't race in the Derby are usually outclassed. And the other Preakness runners coming from the Derby are returning in 14 days, too-- so there's no advantage of a bit more time between races for them compared to the winner.

I think "most handicappers and trainers (not all- so I don't need someone to tell me how if it were their horse they'd run him every week) would agree that 2 preps and 5 weeks into the derby is a better scenario than 2 weeks after a grueling 10 furlongs. I'm just saying that the circumstances that "may have" flattered him last week, won't be there this week.

Since the 5-6 week break before the derby became en vogue, most if not all of the horses who have run a top in the derby off the break, couldn't duplicate it at Pimlico. At odds on, he looks like bad value

[AndyC]

My only caveat in this race is this: everything I've read has O'Neill not having Nyquist at his peak for the KD. True or not, I don't know.

But that was the claim for Billy Turner and Seattle Slew, too. Supposedly, Slew was not sharp and after his dwell, he really had to put out to win the KD.

Yet, he was able to win while undergoing a speed duel 2 weeks later. Was it due to being in better shape at Pim, as opposed to CD? pffft

For me, that is the only unknowable intangible that muddies up this Preakness. Maybe Nyquist might be sharper. But strategically betting otherwise is in order, imo.

10 out of the last 19 winners have gone on to win the Preakness. Another 4 finished 2nd and obviously Barbaro, who looked like a lock, DNF. So based on the last 19 winners does Nyquist seem more probable to win or to lose? While I rarely bet favorites I also don't bet against likely winning favorites either. In your view, why is it strategically correct to bet against Nyquist?

[RXB]

I think "most handicappers and trainers (not all- so I don't need someone to tell me how if it were their horse they'd run him every week) would agree that 2 preps and 5 weeks into the derby is a better scenario than 2 weeks after a grueling 10 furlongs. I'm just saying that the circumstances that "may have" flattered him last week, won't be there this week.

Since the 5-6 week break before the derby became en vogue, most if not all of the horses who have run a top in the derby off the break, couldn't duplicate it at Pimlico. At odds on, he looks like bad value

I don't quite understand this. Again, 10 of the past 12 Derby winners with tactical speed subsequently won the Preakness, too. How can they be bouncing?

You're taking one kernel of truth-- that horses these days win at a slightly higher percentage if they have a little more rest than two weeks-- and trying to apply that single fact to a race where a lot of the horses are coming back on the same 14-day schedule, while most of the ones with extra recovery from their previous race are simply outclassed.

[Tom]

Horses run better when they run often.
And much better when they run often and early.

[clocker7]

10 out of the last 19 winners have gone on to win the Preakness. Another 4 finished 2nd and obviously Barbaro, who looked like a lock, DNF. So based on the last 19 winners does Nyquist seem more probable to win or to lose? While I rarely bet favorites I also don't bet against likely winning favorites either. In your view, why is it strategically correct to bet against Nyquist?
The "strategic" has to do with selectivity, rather than a generality.

My view is simple: there are some horses like Chrome and AP who won the KD with rather benign efforts. OTOH, my reading of this year's event is that Nyquist expended more energy in doing so.

There's no quantification involved (other than the early fractions), only a judgment from watching the video over and over.

Hey, if he goes off at 9-10 like AP, jump on it. But if he is around 1-2, do a little fishing. But don't go crazy.

[fiznow]

Horse had perfect spacing coming into the Derby (albeit with mediocre races). Now I think the question becomes how much does he move backwards off that effort. The 5-6 weeks rest coming into the Derby is proving to be optimal but the downside of that is these Derby winners are obligated to run back in 2 weeks...

Since 2006 when Matz broke the ridiculous assertion that you couldn't win the Derby off 5 weeks, here are the horses who've won off 5-6 weeks

Barbaro, BB, MTB, AK, Orb. All technically bounced in Baltimore...

Now you still need someone to step up and run a halfway decent race to beat him but he sure looks vurnerable

Pah, haven't there been times when they ran the whole triple crown within a few days? ;););)

[clocker7]

Pah, haven't there been times when they ran the whole triple crown within a few days? ;););)
There can't be a bigger traditionalist than I on this site. I have compiled the racing dates for over 2000 of America's greatest horses, and could give you the spacing for their races, if given only a few minutes. Wouldn't it be great if they could reappear and run with only a few days rest, or even race on the same day and win?

But that was then and this is now. Modern trainers, operating against deeper talent at the top, know the score. Even with incentive to run more often, and taking their cut, they have learned that racing too often results in negative payback.

[fiznow]

There can't be a bigger traditionalist than I on this site. I have compiled the racing dates for over 2000 of America's greatest horses, and could give you the spacing for their races, if given only a few minutes. Wouldn't it be great if they could reappear and run with only a few days rest, or even race on the same day and win?

But that was then and this is now. Modern trainers, operating against deeper talent at the top, know the score. Even with incentive to run more often, and taking their cut, they have learned that racing too often results in negative payback.

I know, times are different. But f.e. in England you rerally still see some horses run back next day. Or at the Roayl Ascot meeting you see horses run 2 graded stakes races in 1 week. Similar things you can see in Australia. I don't say that's healthy for the horses though.

[RXB]

I know, times are different. But f.e. in England you rerally still see some horses run back next day. Or at the Roayl Ascot meeting you see horses run 2 graded stakes races in 1 week. Similar things you can see in Australia. I don't say that's healthy for the horses though.

No Lasix in England or Australia. It's not just a coincidence that when Lasix started spreading across North America is also when starts per horse began sinking.

[Rackon]

The "strategic" has to do with selectivity, rather than a generality.

My view is simple: there are some horses like Chrome and AP who won the KD with rather benign efforts. OTOH, my reading of this year's event is that Nyquist expended more energy in doing so.

There's no quantification involved (other than the early fractions), only a judgment from watching the video over and over.

Based on trainer/jockey conversation after last year's KD as well as video review, I'm not sure I buy that the Derby was an easy race for AP. (For one thing, he didnt like the track.) Yes, Nyquist ran close to very fast opening fractions but he didn't appear gutted or like he'd been used hard after the race. The connections are darned smart conditioners. I dunno about other 3 YOs regimes but O'Neill has been training this colt for the triple crown road, not just the Derby.

[keithw84]

No Lasix in England or Australia. It's not just a coincidence that when Lasix started spreading across North America is also when starts per horse began sinking.

I should probably know this, but why would lasix use cause time between starts to go up? (I know lasix is a diuretic)

[tucker6]

I should probably know this, but why would lasix use cause time between starts to go up? (I know lasix is a diuretic)
The answer is your last comment.

Good article on Lasix's influence on the sport.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/aug/31/lasix-drug-debate-bleeding-horse-racing