Thoughts???

[coachv30]

Of all of the thoroughbred races run today, 43 of them races had at least 1 horse who went off at his ML odds. In 27 of these races, this horse finished in the money from odds ranging from 6/5 to 15/1...19 of these 27 horses won the race.

Has anyone followed this before and found some validity? Maybe this is a tote-board angle that is used a lot that I'm not aware of....thoughts?

[VigorsTheGrey]

Of all of the thoroughbred races run today, 43 of them races had at least 1 horse who went off at his ML odds. In 27 of these races, this horse finished in the money from odds ranging from 6/5 to 15/1...19 of these 27 horses won the race.

Has anyone followed this before and found some validity? Maybe this is a tote-board angle that is used a lot that I'm not aware of....thoughts?

How many races total were run?

[coachv30]

How many races total were run?


Approx 100 give or take.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Approx 100 give or take.

So the goldilocks horses that are neither hot nor cold on the boards right at post closing might deserve an upgrade?

I don't think this could be bet in a timely fashion even if something was found about it....

[pandy]

Of all of the thoroughbred races run today, 43 of them races had at least 1 horse who went off at his ML odds. In 27 of these races, this horse finished in the money from odds ranging from 6/5 to 15/1...19 of these 27 horses won the race.

Has anyone followed this before and found some validity? Maybe this is a tote-board angle that is used a lot that I'm not aware of....thoughts?

I've never kept records on this, but I have noticed that horses that go off as favorites that were not morning line favorites are bad bets, overall. This kind of fits what you found today. For instance, say a horse is 2-1 on the morning line and goes off at 2-1. Another horse in a different race is 8-1 on the morning line and goes off at 2-1. Over the long run, the horse that is 2-1 ML and goes off at 2-1 will win more often.

[green80]

Of all of the thoroughbred races run today, 43 of them races had at least 1 horse who went off at his ML odds. In 27 of these races, this horse finished in the money from odds ranging from 6/5 to 15/1...19 of these 27 horses won the race.

Has anyone followed this before and found some validity? Maybe this is a tote-board angle that is used a lot that I'm not aware of....thoughts?

That kinda blows some of the "whales ruining the game" threads.

[NorCalGreg]

I've never kept records on this, but I have noticed that horses that go off as favorites that were not morning line favorites are bad bets, overall. This kind of fits what you found today. For instance, say a horse is 2-1 on the morning line and goes off at 2-1. Another horse in a different race is 8-1 on the morning line and goes off at 2-1. Over the long run, the horse that is 2-1 ML and goes off at 2-1 will win more often.

I've noticed that as well, pandy. What might be called "smart money" doesn't seem to be smart at all.

I've been doing my own little study on "first flash" money...when the tote first comes alive, and some longshot is 1-9 or something bizarre. This isn't scientific--but I've found that is just some crazy-a$$ bettor that stuck a couple hundred on a horse--has no correlation with the actual outcome.

[ldiatone]

Approx 100 give or take.
sunday? 175 races including the race track MC that had 1 race at 5.25F

[Appy]

That kinda blows some of the "whales ruining the game" threads.

Seems to me it does a better job of blowing all those bashing the guys who make the ML out of the water.