significant KD statistical observations...

[ribjig]

...by Neil Greenberg, Washington Post:

"Thirty nine of the last 40 winners were sharp in their last prep race (top-three finish or within four lengths of the winner) leading up to the Derby. Danzing Candy, Mo Tom, Mohaymen, and Shagaf were not.

The past 65 winners have all raced at 1 1/8 miles prior to trying the classic 1 1/4-mile distance at Churchill Downs. Destin’s longest race has only been 1 1/16 miles long. Toss him out.

American Pharoah is the only Derby winner who did not race against a field of 10 horses or more prior to the first Saturday in May. This year, neither has Destin or Outwork.

Only two out of the last 48 Derby winners did not win as a 2-year-old: Creator, Majesto, My Man Sam and Trojan Nation all fit in this category.

Forty three of the past 45 winners had a jockey with prior Derby experience. Gun Runner (Florent Geroux), Mohaymen (Junior Alvarado), Suddenbreakingnews (Luis Quinonez) and Tom’s Ready (Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.) all have Derby rookies in the saddle."

[DeltaLover]

...by Neil Greenberg, Washington Post:

"Thirty nine of the last 40 winners were sharp in their last prep race (top-three finish or within four lengths of the winner) leading up to the Derby. Danzing Candy, Mo Tom, Mohaymen, and Shagaf were not.

The past 65 winners have all raced at 1 1/8 miles prior to trying the classic 1 1/4-mile distance at Churchill Downs. Destin’s longest race has only been 1 1/16 miles long. Toss him out.

American Pharoah is the only Derby winner who did not race against a field of 10 horses or more prior to the first Saturday in May. This year, neither has Destin or Outwork.

Only two out of the last 48 Derby winners did not win as a 2-year-old: Creator, Majesto, My Man Sam and Trojan Nation all fit in this category.

Forty three of the past 45 winners had a jockey with prior Derby experience. Gun Runner (Florent Geroux), Mohaymen (Junior Alvarado), Suddenbreakingnews (Luis Quinonez) and Tom’s Ready (Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.) all have Derby rookies in the saddle."


These text is representative of the weakest way to approach horse handicapping.

[SecretAgentMan]

...by Neil Greenberg, Washington Post:

"Thirty nine of the last 40 winners were sharp in their last prep race (top-three finish or within four lengths of the winner) leading up to the Derby. Danzing Candy, Mo Tom, Mohaymen, and Shagaf were not.

The past 65 winners have all raced at 1 1/8 miles prior to trying the classic 1 1/4-mile distance at Churchill Downs. Destin’s longest race has only been 1 1/16 miles long. Toss him out.

American Pharoah is the only Derby winner who did not race against a field of 10 horses or more prior to the first Saturday in May. This year, neither has Destin or Outwork.

Only two out of the last 48 Derby winners did not win as a 2-year-old: Creator, Majesto, My Man Sam and Trojan Nation all fit in this category.

Forty three of the past 45 winners had a jockey with prior Derby experience. Gun Runner (Florent Geroux), Mohaymen (Junior Alvarado), Suddenbreakingnews (Luis Quinonez) and Tom’s Ready (Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.) all have Derby rookies in the saddle."




Interesting

[alydar]

I appreciate the information. Thanks.

[alydar]

These text is representative of the weakest way to approach horse handicapping.


Weakest??? Not so sure about that. There a plenty of other bad approaches.

[DeltaLover]

Weakest??? Not so sure about that. There a plenty of other bad approaches.

This concept of backfitting irrelative or non testable factors should be present in all bad approaches though.

[VigorsTheGrey]

This concept of backfitting irrelative or non testable factors should be present in all bad approaches though.

So where are you at considering the above? Creator majesto nyquist?

[ribjig]

> weakest way to approach horse handicapping

Weakest? Post video clips of your wallet beating up my wallet.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

> This concept of backfitting irrelative or non testable factors should be present in all bad approaches

Backfitting gets kicked around b'cause:
a. its often not employed correctly :bang: :bang: :bang:
b. its never perfect (true of ALL handicapping)

[JoeLong]

...by Neil Greenberg, Washington Post:

"Thirty nine of the last 40 winners were sharp in their last prep race (top-three finish or within four lengths of the winner) leading up to the Derby. Danzing Candy, Mo Tom, Mohaymen, and Shagaf were not.

The past 65 winners have all raced at 1 1/8 miles prior to trying the classic 1 1/4-mile distance at Churchill Downs. Destin’s longest race has only been 1 1/16 miles long. Toss him out.

American Pharoah is the only Derby winner who did not race against a field of 10 horses or more prior to the first Saturday in May. This year, neither has Destin or Outwork.

Only two out of the last 48 Derby winners did not win as a 2-year-old: Creator, Majesto, My Man Sam and Trojan Nation all fit in this category.

Forty three of the past 45 winners had a jockey with prior Derby experience. Gun Runner (Florent Geroux), Mohaymen (Junior Alvarado), Suddenbreakingnews (Luis Quinonez) and Tom’s Ready (Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.) all have Derby rookies in the saddle."

Very interesting... If you eliminate all of the horses you reference above and then rank balance on odds you nail the exacta cold, thanks for sharing the observations. :ThmbUp: