FORMULA AT CHURCHILL DOWNS 05-07-2016

[formula_2002]

WILL POST LIVE WHENEVER POSIBLE
EXACTA BET SIZE WILL APPEAR IN THE MATRIX. WIN BET SIZE AT THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE MATRIX.

THE BETS WILL COVER APPROXIMATELY 60% OF THE WIN AND EXACTA POOLS

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
1

Post
10:30

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$166,308 " exacta units 561.83
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet
1 0 37 44 18 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 134
2 40 0 68 27 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 185
3 0
4 0
5 44 60 92 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 243

[formula_2002]

results

pgno "Churchill
Race
1

Post
10:30

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$166,308 "
1 bet on winner 0.00
2 bet on ex winner 0.00
3 win bet 562
4 exacta BET 562
5
6 WIN PGNO 3
7 PLACE PGNO 1 $1 expected win 1.78
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 0.00 $1 expected ex 1.78
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 0.00
10 win pool bet onwinner 0.0000
11 EX BET ON WINNER 0.0000
12
13 win return 0 $1 win net 0.00
14 exacta RETURN 0 $1 ex net 0.00
15
16 total bet 1124 $ total net -1123.66

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
2

Post
11:01

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$283,796 " exacta units 586.87
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet pgno
1 0 1
2 31 0 18 12 6 7 6 28 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 112 2
3 54 18 0 15 7 8 9 46 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 161 3
4 26 11 14 0 4 5 6 22 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 4
5 0 5
6 0 6
7 0 7
8 71 31 52 26 9 10 16 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 223 8

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
2

Post
11:01

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$283,796 "
1 bet on winner 0.00
2 bet on ex winner 0.00
3 win bet 587
4 exacta BET 587
5
6 WIN PGNO 9
7 PLACE PGNO 1 $1 expected win 1.70
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 0.00 $1 expected ex 1.70
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 0.00
10 win pool bet onwinner 0.0000
11 EX BET ON WINNER 0.0000
12
13 win return 0 $1 win net 0.00
14 exacta RETURN 0 $1 ex net 0.00
15
16 total bet 1174 $ total net -1173.74

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
3

Post
11:30

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$337,283 " exacta units 634.83 results
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet pgno
1 0 4 21 4 8 6 47 5 10 35 38 0 0 0 0 0 178 1
2 0 2
3 18 2 0 2 6 3 18 3 5 11 16 0 0 0 0 0 83 3
4 0 4
5 6 2 5 1 0 2 9 2 2 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 38 5
6 0 6
7 0 7
8 0 8
9 8 1 5 1 2 2 9 2 0 6 9 0 0 0 0 0 45 9
10 34 2 12 4 6 3 44 3 7 0 28 0 0 0 0 0 144 10
11 35 2 18 2 6 4 40 3 11 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 148 11

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
3

Post
11:30

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$337,283 "
1 bet on winner 0.00
2 bet on ex winner 0.00
3 win bet 635
4 exacta BET 635
5
6 WIN PGNO 9
7 PLACE PGNO 1 $1 expected win 1.58
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 0.00 $1 expected ex 1.58
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 0.00
10 win pool bet onwinner 0.0000
11 EX BET ON WINNER 0.0000
12
13 win return 0 $1 win net 0.00
14 exacta RETURN 0 $1 ex net 0.00
15
16 total bet 1270 $ total net -1269.65

[formula_2002]

those last three races brought my data base of 29 similar races down to 0.92 exacta roi and 0.90 win pool roi and a win percentage of 69%

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
4

Post
12:02

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$432,399 " exacta units 615.68
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet
1 0 21 11 0 6 22 16 3 5 16 54 11 0 0 0 0 164
2 19 0 6 0 3 13 6 1 3 9 30 7 0 0 0 0 98
3 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0
6 20 14 7 0 3 0 8 2 3 11 36 8 0 0 0 0 113
7 14 6 5 0 3 8 0 1 2 8 24 4 0 0 0 0 75
8 0
9 0
10 15 10 7 0 3 11 8 1 3 0 33 8 0 0 0 0 99
11 0
12 9 8 3 0 2 9 4 1 2 8 21 0 0 0 0 0 67
13 0

[coachk713]

Hate to ask but can you direct me to a post that tells how to decipher yours. thanks.

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
4

Post
12:02

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$432,399 "
1 bet on winner 112.92
2 bet on ex winner 8.30
3 win bet 616
4 exacta BET 616
5
6 WIN PGNO 6
7 PLACE PGNO 12 $1 expected win 1.62
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 7.20 $1 expected ex 1.62
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 70.00
10 win pool bet onwinner 112.9157
11 EX BET ON WINNER 8.2977
12
13 win return 813 $1 win net 1.32
14 exacta RETURN 581 $1 ex net 0.94
15
16 total bet 1231 $ total net 162.47

[formula_2002]

Hate to ask but can you direct me to a post that tells how to decipher yours. thanks.
you read the exacta matrix same as you would the exacta "will pay" board. except the numbers shown are the bet size.
in the 4th at cd the 6-12 exacta bet size was $8
the win bet size is shown on the right of the matrix,
The bet size on the 6 was 113. all bet sizes are rounded off.

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
5

Post
12:34

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$482,272 " exacta units 614.29
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet
1 0
2 6 0 29 17 13 0 6 6 10 24 2 21 0 0 0 0 134
3 0
4 6 18 17 0 9 0 5 4 7 19 2 12 0 0 0 0 98
5 3 12 16 8 0 0 4 5 5 11 2 13 0 0 0 0 80
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 6 26 41 19 12 0 6 6 13 0 2 31 0 0 0 0 163
11 0
12 4 22 32 14 15 0 5 5 9 31 3 0 0 0 0 0 139

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
5

Post
12:34

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$482,272 "
1 bet on winner 98.07
2 bet on ex winner 12.00
3 win bet 614
4 exacta BET 614
5
6 WIN PGNO 4
7 PLACE PGNO 12 $1 expected win 1.63
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 8.95 $1 expected ex 1.63
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 62.10
10 win pool bet onwinner 98.0657
11 EX BET ON WINNER 12.0000
12
13 win return 878 $1 win net 1.43
14 exacta RETURN 745 $1 ex net 1.21
15
16 total bet 1229 $ total net 394.30

[formula_2002]

don't like going against a 2/5 short, but it is what it is. (the land of probability that is :) )

"Churchill
Race
6

Post
1:12

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$582,929 " exacta units 453.05
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet
1 0
2 0
3 20 0 0 11 3 0 5 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48
4 128 0 13 0 6 0 19 12 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 204
5 9 0 3 4 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
6 0
7 23 0 5 16 2 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57
8 20 0 3 10 2 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 44
9 36 0 4 23 3 0 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 78

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
6

Post
1:12

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$582,929 "
1 bet on winner 0.00
2 bet on ex winner 0.00
3 win bet 453
4 exacta BET 453
5
6 WIN PGNO 1
7 PLACE PGNO 9 $1 expected win 2.21
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 0.00 $1 expected ex 2.21
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 0.00
10 win pool bet onwinner 0.0000
11 EX BET ON WINNER 0.0000
12
13 win return 0 $1 win net 0.00
14 exacta RETURN 0 $1 ex net 0.00
15
16 total bet 906 $ total net -906.10

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
7

Post
1:54

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$848,824 " exacta units 614.83 results
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet pgno
1 0 6 35 9 21 40 14 49 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 184 1
2 0 2
3 32 3 0 6 16 22 12 31 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 130 3
4 0 4
5 22 4 18 6 0 27 15 21 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 120 5
6 0 6
7 0 7
8 50 5 35 8 21 36 16 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 180 8
9 0 9
10 0 10

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
7

Post
1:54

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$848,824 "
1 bet on winner 0.00
2 bet on ex winner 0.00
3 win bet 664
4 exacta BET 664
5
6 WIN PGNO 9
7 PLACE PGNO 3 $1 expected win 1.51
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 0.00 $1 expected ex 1.51
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 0.00
10 win pool bet onwinner 0.0000
11 EX BET ON WINNER 0.0000
12
13 win return 0 $1 win net 0.00
14 exacta RETURN 0 $1 ex net 0.00
15
16 total bet 1328 $ total net -1328.13

[formula_2002]

33 race data base of similar bets now down to a 0.88 roi.

you could often get those same results by throwing darts at a racing program :faint:

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
8

Post
2:44

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,026,954 " exacta units 613.19
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet
1 0
2 7 0 6 0 10 22 10 52 23 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 190
3 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0
6 4 20 4 0 5 0 6 18 15 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 95
7 0
8 7 56 5 0 7 22 9 0 30 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 214
9 4 21 4 0 4 15 7 26 0 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 115

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
8

Post
2:44

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,026,954 "
1 bet on winner 213.67
2 bet on ex winner 56.00
3 win bet 613
4 exacta BET 613
5
6 WIN PGNO 8
7 PLACE PGNO 2 $1 expected win 1.63
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 4.20 $1 expected ex 1.63
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 15.80
10 win pool bet onwinner 213.6706
11 EX BET ON WINNER 56.0000
12
13 win return 897 $1 win net 1.46
14 exacta RETURN 885 $1 ex net 1.44
15
16 total bet 1226 $ total net 555.83

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
9

Post
3:34

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,199,511 " exacta units 660.04 results
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet pgno
1 0 3 34 25 9 10 4 40 11 9 17 7 10 0 0 0 178 1
2 0 2
3 31 2 0 18 6 10 3 30 7 7 11 5 8 0 0 0 138 3
4 23 3 18 0 8 8 3 27 6 7 12 6 6 0 0 0 128 4
5 7 1 6 7 0 3 2 7 2 2 4 2 3 0 0 0 45 5
6 8 1 8 7 2 0 1 9 3 3 4 2 3 0 0 0 51 6
7 0 7
8 0 8
9 9 1 6 5 2 3 1 6 0 3 3 2 3 0 0 0 45 9
10 0 10
11 15 1 11 11 4 4 2 13 4 3 0 3 5 0 0 0 74 11

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
9

Post
3:34

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,199,511 "
1 bet on winner 45.10
2 bet on ex winner 5.48
3 win bet 660
4 exacta BET 660
5
6 WIN PGNO 9
7 PLACE PGNO 4 $1 expected win 1.52
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 19.70 $1 expected ex 1.52
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 161.10
10 win pool bet onwinner 45.0967
11 EX BET ON WINNER 5.4830
12
13 win return 888 $1 win net 1.35
14 exacta RETURN 883 $1 ex net 1.34
15
16 total bet 1320 $ total net 451.63

[formula_2002]

after 9 races. 4 wins. win plays returned 66 cent on the dollar, exacta 57 cents

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
10

Post
4:24

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,300,781 " exacta units 597.67
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 3 4 2 2 0 12 11 1 13 11 32 3 4 1 0 0 101
6 2 3 2 2 12 0 7 1 9 7 17 3 3 1 0 0 68
7 4 3 2 4 10 7 0 1 15 13 25 4 5 1 0 0 95
8 0
9 5 5 2 4 13 10 16 1 0 19 35 9 7 1 0 0 126
10 4 4 1 3 11 7 13 1 18 0 29 10 4 2 0 0 108
11 0
12 2 2 1 2 3 3 4 1 8 9 14 0 3 1 0 0 52
13 2 2 1 2 4 3 5 1 6 4 14 3 0 1 0 0 47

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
10

Post
4:24

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,300,781 "
1 bet on winner 68.00
2 bet on ex winner 7.38
3 win bet 598
4 exacta BET 598
5
6 WIN PGNO 6
7 PLACE PGNO 7 $1 expected win 1.67
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 14.10 $1 expected ex 1.67
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 94.60
10 win pool bet onwinner 68.0000
11 EX BET ON WINNER 7.3755
12
13 win return 959 $1 win net 1.60
14 exacta RETURN 698 $1 ex net 1.17
15
16 total bet 1195 $ total net 461.18

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
11

Post
5:25

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,463,007 " exacta units 603.19 results
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet pgno
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
2 0 0 7 2 3 8 4 5 2 6 4 12 1 0 0 0 53 2
3 0 7 0 3 6 18 8 16 4 19 7 32 2 0 0 0 124 3
4 0 4
5 0 5
6 0 8 18 3 6 0 6 10 5 22 7 50 2 0 0 0 136 6
7 0 7
8 0 5 16 2 6 11 4 0 3 15 9 22 1 0 0 0 95 8
9 0 9
10 0 6 19 3 5 22 6 15 4 0 11 40 2 0 0 0 132 10
11 0 4 7 2 3 7 3 8 2 10 0 15 2 0 0 0 63 11

[formula_2002]

a $1 exacta box on all selections would have won 5 of 11 races.
cost $224,, return $482.3



$1 bet $1 ret
2 0
12 0
20 0
20 70
20 62
30 0
6 0
12 15.8
30 161
42 94.6
30 78.9
224 482.3

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
11

Post
5:25

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,463,007 "
1 bet on winner 94.65
2 bet on ex winner 8.85
3 win bet 603
4 exacta BET 603
5
6 WIN PGNO 8
7 PLACE PGNO 11 $1 expected win 1.66
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 7.70 $1 expected ex 1.66
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 78.80
10 win pool bet onwinner 94.6472
11 EX BET ON WINNER 8.8548
12
13 win return 729 $1 win net 1.21
14 exacta RETURN 698 $1 ex net 1.16
15
16 total bet 1206 $ total net 220.15

[formula_2002]

going into the 12th race derby, my program only covers 16 horses.

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
12

Post
6:34

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$20,435,401 " exacta units 588.84
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet
1 0
2 1 0 5 3 5 3 1 1 2 1 6 1 9 3 2 1 46
3 2 5 0 3 9 3 1 2 5 2 13 1 18 5 3 1 74
4 0
5 2 5 10 4 0 4 2 3 5 3 18 1 26 7 4 1 96
6 1 3 3 2 4 0 1 1 3 1 5 1 8 3 1 1 37
7 0
8 0
9 1 3 5 2 5 3 1 1 0 2 9 1 13 5 3 1 53
10 0
11 2 8 15 6 19 6 3 4 10 4 0 2 61 15 7 2 165
12 0
13 0
14 1 4 6 3 8 3 1 2 5 2 14 1 25 0 4 2 81
15 1 2 3 1 4 2 1 1 3 1 6 1 10 3 0 1 38
16 0

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
12

Post
6:34

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$20,435,401 "
1 bet on winner 0.00
2 bet on ex winner 0.00
3 win bet 589
4 exacta BET 589
5
6 WIN PGNO 13
7 PLACE PGNO 11 $1 expected win 1.70
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 0.00 $1 expected ex 1.70
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 0.00
10 win pool bet onwinner 0.0000
11 EX BET ON WINNER 0.0000
12
13 win return 0 $1 win net 0.00
14 exacta RETURN 0 $1 ex net 0.00
15
16 total bet 1178 $ total net -1177.67

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
13

Post
7:35

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$393,408 " exacta units 633.83 results
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet pgno
1 0 1
2 0 2
3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
4 0 4
5 3 6 0 36 0 30 26 11 9 3 2 5 0 0 0 0 132 5
6 3 6 0 42 30 0 33 16 13 6 2 8 0 0 0 0 160 6
7 4 6 0 50 29 36 0 21 13 4 4 9 0 0 0 0 177 7
8 2 4 0 27 10 16 19 0 10 2 2 7 0 0 0 0 98 8
9 2 3 0 15 9 12 11 8 0 2 2 5 0 0 0 0 68 9

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
13

Post
7:35

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$393,408 "
1 bet on winner 98.08
2 bet on ex winner 6.56
3 win bet 634
4 exacta BET 634
5
6 WIN PGNO 8
7 PLACE PGNO 12 $1 expected win 1.58
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 8.20 $1 expected ex 1.58
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 115.60
10 win pool bet onwinner 98.0828
11 EX BET ON WINNER 6.5556
12
13 win return 804 $1 win net 1.27
14 exacta RETURN 758 $1 ex net 1.20
15
16 total bet 1268 $ total net 294.44

[formula_2002]

"Churchill
Race
14

Post
8:22

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$409,102 " exacta units 620.81 results
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet pgno
1 0 3 12 16 4 16 17 5 5 3 2 15 0 0 0 0 97 1
2 0 2
3 12 2 0 13 5 21 20 4 6 3 1 14 0 0 0 0 101 3
4 18 3 15 0 6 29 24 7 7 3 2 17 0 0 0 0 129 4
5 0 5
6 0 6
7 19 3 19 23 5 32 0 6 10 3 2 34 0 0 0 0 157 7
8 0 8
9 0 9
10 0 10
11 0 11
12 15 3 13 16 4 29 33 6 10 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 137 12

[formula_2002]

results
pgno "Churchill
Race
14

Post
8:22

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$409,102 "
1 bet on winner 100.81
2 bet on ex winner 19.73
3 win bet 621
4 exacta BET 621
5
6 WIN PGNO 3
7 PLACE PGNO 7 $1 expected win 1.61
8 WIN $1 PAY OUT 11.60 $1 expected ex 1.61
9 exacta $1 PAYOUT 46.30
10 win pool bet onwinner 100.8118
11 EX BET ON WINNER 19.7302
12
13 win return 1169 $1 win net 1.88
14 exacta RETURN 914 $1 ex net 1.47
15
16 total bet 1242 $ total net 841.31


$1 exacta box cost $20 and returned $46.30
6 of 14 exacta boxes cost $320 and returned $528.30

9 of 14 races won. the exacta plays returned 73 cents on the dollar, the win plays 86 cents on the dollar

the number of expected winners was 8.4, the actual 9.

[formula_2002]

bel r5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 bet size
1 2 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 4 0 0 0 0 16
2 4 7 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 0 0 0 29
3
4
5
6 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 0 23
7
8
9
10 3 6 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 0 25
11
12 5 8 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 7 0 9 0 0 0 0 34
13
14
15
16
127