cordep17
05-06-2016, 11:11 PM
6 starts with 0 wins. After losing 5th consecutive maiden race, never coming in 2nd or posting a figure above 87, went to the Wood and ran 2nd by a head at 80-1, and is now here at the Kentucky Derby. Distance wise, he lost twice at a mile and 1/16 as a maiden by significant margins, so it isn’t like it was the distance. Those Maiden races were at SA, so if he is a great horse running on a track he never liked that could explain it, but it looks like he runs bullets on the track during training, so when I go to the replays I’m curious to see what he actually looked like and if visually the improve looks to be sustainable. 3 year olds can improve in short periods of time, and this one may have just needed 5 and really tough competition for him to show what he’s made of…it is worth noting he even bothered entering that race for a trainer who is +1.60 ROI in Graded Stakes and performed the way he did, so they probably really thought he had it in him. The biggest concern is that the race was in the slop, and he may have just really taken to it while others did not. Rider is Aaron Gryder, whoever that is, who wins with closers 2% of the time and 6% on the year, which isn’t too great for a closer on the rail in a 20 horse field.
Looking at the workouts since Nov. 8, it’s interesting and may help to understand the lack of growth early. In his second start he looking to be improving between first and second, but after that race he posted strong works until having nothing in the tank in 3rd start. Following the 3rd, he was benched for a month before working again, raced, waited 20 days to work again then waited 10 for the start, but following that last maiden race, the schedule really changed, working the horse 12 days later, 10 days later and 5 days later, 5 days before race day when he worked a bullet at SA. After that great Wood showing, came back to training 12 days later then 7 days later; I wonder whether he’s got a freshener before tomorrow’s race. This entry is more interesting than meets the eye to me.
Could he have a scorcher of a race? Could also use a better Derby name.
Looking at the workouts since Nov. 8, it’s interesting and may help to understand the lack of growth early. In his second start he looking to be improving between first and second, but after that race he posted strong works until having nothing in the tank in 3rd start. Following the 3rd, he was benched for a month before working again, raced, waited 20 days to work again then waited 10 for the start, but following that last maiden race, the schedule really changed, working the horse 12 days later, 10 days later and 5 days later, 5 days before race day when he worked a bullet at SA. After that great Wood showing, came back to training 12 days later then 7 days later; I wonder whether he’s got a freshener before tomorrow’s race. This entry is more interesting than meets the eye to me.
Could he have a scorcher of a race? Could also use a better Derby name.