Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders / Value Line / Analysis

[PaceAdvantage]

Up on the home page:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/

After you read it, feel free to come back here and tell me what a dope I am. :lol:

[boys at tosconova]

my mock 6 comes up w/ something similar. but i have brody and sam as opposed to sbn and tom...this was all before posts

i have a hard time altering my handicapping style, but i'm re-thinking my positional speed long shot (outlook and candy) horses even though there doesn't seem to be an abundance of speed...however i really struggle leaving both out.

but the wood/ny angle to the KD is awful enough to pay attention to, as well as the front end speed horse history...not to mention several other knocks on the 2..i'm really trying hard to talk myself out of them

[raybo]

Hmmm - you're willing to toss Danzing Candy's last race due to the sloppy surface, but you're not willing to excuse Mohaymen's last, on a "Gd" surface and very wide throughout? I hope lots more people think that way - LOL.

I really can't understand how almost anyone can leave Mohaymen out of their top 6 contenders list. But, hey, that's racing!! :ThmbUp:

[mostpost]

Up on the home page:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/

After you read it, feel free to come back here and tell me what a dope I am. :lol:
All of your horses make no sense.
All of your horses make a great deal of sense.
In other words this is one of the weirdest Derby's I can remember. We have an undefeated horse that no one seems to like. We have a lot of horses who look good on one metric and not so good on another.

I almost always have an opinion. It may not be a good opinion, but I have it. This time I don't have a clue.

[Tom]

Good rule to live by - never ignore PA or Dallas Stewart in a triple crown race.

[boys at tosconova]

Hmmm - you're willing to toss Danzing Candy's last race due to the sloppy surface, but you're not willing to excuse Mohaymen's last, on a "Gd" surface and very wide throughout? I hope lots more people think that way - LOL.

I really can't understand how almost anyone can leave Mohaymen out of their top 6 contenders list. But, hey, that's racing!! :ThmbUp:


i wanted to forgive him,..but i can't. yes it was an off track and a wide trip, but the horse needed to have more.....and he was almost walking to the wire to boot. horse didn't even look like he was conditioned

[maddog42]

Pace you ignorant slut!!! Handicapping and bong hits just don't mix. Nothing wrong with it, I've done it myself. Just don't expect to make any money or not get weird looks from the parimutuel teller when you stumble up to the window all red-eyed and a stupid looking smile on your face. Where to begin?

Ok first of all your line. Even I don't have the balls to make Nyquist 17-1. Perhaps you read my thread on Derby Pace pars? Nevermind. You can't be expected to read every bit of handicapping drivel on this board. I eliminated Nyquist from the win spot. I stand by that. But 17-1 !!!! Maybe we are splitting hairs. I have him 10-1 maybe 9-1.
Danzing Candy 5-1?!!! Never let it be said that you don't have great big huge brass balls!!!! Also let me acknowledge that except for 1 year in the last 5 your picks have been way better than mine on Derby day. When has a horse ever gotten beat 13 lengths(on dirt) and won the Derby? It ain't gonna happen. He could finish second but more likely 3rd or 4th.

[maddog42]

Let me clarify. Except for the 2 horses I mentioned, your line is very close to mine.

[raybo]

i wanted to forgive him,..but i can't. yes it was an off track and a wide trip, but the horse needed to have more.....and he was almost walking to the wire to boot. horse didn't even look like he was conditioned

And the fact that he "didn't even look like he was conditioned" doesn't hit you between the eyes? He and Nyquist already had the Derby made, did you really expect them to run each other to death in their last prep race? What do you suspect his condition will be tomorrow? If you think it will be bad, then toss him, but if you think he gained something from that race, and the rest afterward, then what will be said about his conditioning if he runs back to what he should have run that day (without the wide trip, and sticky surface, of course)?

Oh never mind, this stuff is not worth it, we'll find out tomorrow.

[pondman]

Anyone that is willing to ignore Nyquest is a step above those who've got to include him in every exotic and horizontal. You've got 2 of the 3 horses out the SA. That's another step above most players. Could almost make an argument for all 3 of the SA horses-- at least I would. But Mike Smith is going to set D. C up for the Preakness in 15 days. He's going to sizzle, pop and stop and set the horse up.

[AirNate012]

And the fact that he "didn't even look like he was conditioned" doesn't hit you between the eyes? He and Nyquist already had the Derby made, did you really expect them to run each other to death in their last prep race? What do you suspect his condition will be tomorrow? If you think it will be bad, then toss him, but if you think he gained something from that race, and the rest afterward, then what will be said about his conditioning if he runs back to what he should have run that day (without the wide trip, and sticky surface, of course)?

Oh never mind, this stuff is not worth it, we'll find out tomorrow.

I feel that if Mohaymen had ran a decent 2nd to Nyquist, many feelings would be different regarding him...but he ran a well beaten 4th, and the running whom he has beat have thrown up clunkers when they have ran again. He's a toss for me as well.

[maddog42]

Early odds on Danzing are 30-1.

[Secondbest]

Danzing Candy is Andy Beyers horse

[pondman]

Danzing Candy is Andy Beyers horse
Run away then. Run far away.

[Redboard]

Nice analysis Mike. My only problem is the Nyquist 17-1, as a few here have already pounded on you for. I could live with 8-1, but definitely lower than what you gave Exaggerator(11-1) who, you admit, has already been beaten by him three times.

You seem to fall into the trap that a lot of tv handicappers fall into, i.e., dump on the favorite just because it's the favorite rather than putting blinders on and working from the raw data yourself.

Also ".... seems like he could end up near the front on what might be a hot pace,….”

I don’t think it will be a hot pace. Now that Laoban is definitely out, you have only two need-the-lead speed types. On paper, it looks like is going to be the slowest pace kd this century.

[dballard125]

Run away then. Run far away.

:D

[cordep17]

And the fact that he "didn't even look like he was conditioned" doesn't hit you between the eyes? He and Nyquist already had the Derby made, did you really expect them to run each other to death in their last prep race? What do you suspect his condition will be tomorrow? If you think it will be bad, then toss him, but if you think he gained something from that race, and the rest afterward, then what will be said about his conditioning if he runs back to what he should have run that day (without the wide trip, and sticky surface, of course)?

Oh never mind, this stuff is not worth it, we'll find out tomorrow.

I've always appreciated your posts, and others who aren't actively telling you they appreciate the knowledge appreciate them too, especially with newcomers surely clicking the PA Triple Crown Trail's top post.

Haven't handicapped in a while with Fairmount only just getting into their season and the Derby usually being my instigator to get back into it. I've been looking at and analyzing the field for a good hour and a half (I'm about to start looking at the :12: ), and even though it all comes back to me, I forgot all about the fact that I'm handicapping the derby and prep selection and how they run goes plenty deeper than what you see. Thanks for bringing me back to that.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Like all your selections..., except your winner. :)

Don't have them in the same order, but do like your next 5.

Likely in the minority, but I do see a fast pace. Especially considering the field.

In all his mile races or more, Danzing Candy has never ran slower splits than :23 flat, :46 flat, or 1:11 flat. His :45 and 1 and 1:10 weren't an aberration in the SA Derby, or something so ridiculously out of his norm to not be expected.

Now he draws post 20, will want/need to clear the field because he isn't rating, drawing in mid-pack, and rolling home amid a bunch of other stalkers/pressers/closers.

All the other speed is also outside. They will also want to clear as much of the field as they can to get some kind of position into the 1st turn. We also have the unexpected horse(s) that will change tactics, or freak out, and run much earlier than anybody expects.

At least that is the scenario I'm rolling with, and can easily be incredibly wrong in the most puzzling Derby I can ever remember.

GL everybody. :ThmbUp:

[Burls]

I like :3: :6: :11: :13: :15: and :19: tonight.
So I agree with you somewhat PA, but I think I'll sleep on it and see If I can't convince myself to let go of some of the chalk.

[Boris]

Likely in the minority, but I do see a fast pace. Especially considering the field.

You are in the minority. PA, you, and me. I have mostly seen folks saying the opposite. A few on the rail either get out or get crushed into the rail. There is plenty of time to the turn, but those first ten seconds change the options for your mount, and no one prefers to completely lose touch. I think DC will have some company up front.

I'm betting the :6: and rooting for one horse. Playing the 10th race with the money I would be taking stabs at in the Derby.

[sammy the sage]

Just for the record...keying...Destin & SBN....2 & 9....

[cordep17]

You are in the minority. PA, you, and me. I have mostly seen folks saying the opposite. A few on the rail either get out or get crushed into the rail. There is plenty of time to the turn, but those first ten seconds change the options for your mount, and no one prefers to completely lose touch. I think DC will have some company up front.

I'm betting the :6: and rooting for one horse. Playing the 10th race with the money I would be taking stabs at in the Derby.

Now that I've gotten through the race, what is occurring to me is that ever lick of pace is coming from the outside posts, which will push DC at the start in order to get the lead instead of being 6 wide, and none of these horses are better than the others by enough where a wide trip isn't enough to take them out of the winner's circle.

[Nutz and Boltz]

And the fact that he "didn't even look like he was conditioned" doesn't hit you between the eyes? He and Nyquist already had the Derby made, did you really expect them to run each other to death in their last prep race? What do you suspect his condition will be tomorrow? If you think it will be bad, then toss him, but if you think he gained something from that race, and the rest afterward, then what will be said about his conditioning if he runs back to what he should have run that day (without the wide trip, and sticky surface, of course)?

Oh never mind, this stuff is not worth it, we'll find out tomorrow.

Secretariat's prep race ,The Wood Memorial, was a misstep , caused they say, by a tooth abscess giving the horse discomfort. It doesn't take much it affect a horses' performance. I guessing (hoping) that there was a problem with Mohaymen that was addressed by his connections.

[098poi]

So many selections threads!

I might put some money in my account and if I can make it grow before the Derby I will make a bet.

I like

:13:, :14: and :20: in the win slot. Only value would be to stay off :13: Nyquist.

Safe racing evryone.

[maddog42]

I will key SBN and Creator up and down and crossways in 50 cent tri's.

[098poi]

I put $100.00 in my account and have been making mostly win bets today. $10 to win on 1 or 2 horses. I have been up and down but coming in to the 10th at CD I had $112. I put $10 to win on :6: and :7:. :6: won and :7: placed paying $28.20 for the win!!!

New balance $253.55!!!!!!!!!!! I'm not gonna blow it all on the Derby.

[Burls]

I don't know what to do. ...
I LOOOOOVVVVE :13: Nyquist,
but there's NO VALUE there.

[098poi]

So many selections threads!

I might put some money in my account and if I can make it grow before the Derby I will make a bet.

I like

:13:, :14: and :20: in the win slot. Only value would be to stay off :13: Nyquist.

Safe racing evryone.

So I don't blow all my winnings I bet $2 ex
:13: :14: :20: / :5: :13: :14: :15: :17: :18: :20: $36 total

I may make wins on :14: and :20: Good luck

[098poi]

So I don't blow all my winnings I bet $2 ex
:13: :14: :20: / :5: :13: :14: :15: :17: :18: :20: $36 total

I may make wins on :14: and :20: Good luck

I did put $10 on :14: and :20:. Lost $56. I'm still up for the day (so far):ThmbUp:

[MNslappy]

These chalky Derbies are killin me! :bang:

[BettinBilly]

I took a beating yesterday and today. The only win for me was the TVG 3x guarantee on $10.00 WIN bets via mobile. I put the 10 on Nyquist. Not a big win but otherwise it would have been zilch. Every other bet I made today was :ThmbDown:

Looking forward to the Preakness.

[raybo]

I had all 4 horses in the superfecta, just in the wrong order! :bang:

[depalma113]

I had all 4 horses in the superfecta, just in the wrong order! :bang:

My birthday box of 11, 13 won for the first time since 1999. So I cashed that.

[burnsy]

I was taking a beating until the Woodford Reserve. I was all over :11: World Appeal and liked :8: Divisidero. That exacta got me out and then some. I was live with the Oaks/Derby Db with Gun Runner and the db with Divisidero. I hit the exacta and triple in the derby, but the big score was if Gun Runner held on. The weekend was rough until the sweet end. :)

As for the break down of the race I think 3 horses ran well in the derby. Nyquist without question is the best right now but Exaggerator and Gun Runner ran credible races. Exaggerator had the set up so he kind of has no excuses. I thought Gun Runner ran his ass off chasing a quick pace. Danzig Candy lost by 20 lengths setting that pace and Gun Runner hung around til the end. It was reminiscent of the Palace Malice derby where the pace was quick and he held well that day. I like Gun Runner, he has only 6 races and if he surfaces in either of the other two races, especially the Belmont, I would not count him out. Besides Nyquist he ran the best race and if it didn't take all of his starch, he may even improve off of that race. That was a brave effort doing all the dirty work early on. Stretch that out at 12 furlongs with less speed and he will be a tough catch. The same way Palace Malice came back in the Belmont. The Belmont is usually a "one pace" deal.

I did well but Gun Runner was the "brass ring" for me yesterday. After seeing his effort if he shows up in good order I won't hesitate to use him again.